French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

After the Roland Garros draw ceremony was held, the top-half semifinal was expected to pit Novak Djokovic against Rafael Nadal. But Nadal’s withdrawal opened the door for other contenders and in walked Dominic Thiem, who will face the world No. 1 on Friday.

Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they battle for a place in the French Open title match on Friday.

Djokovic is sweeping the head-to-head series 2-0 thanks to a pair of 6-3, 6-4 wins; first at the 2014 Shanghai Masters and then earlier this spring on the hard courts of Miami. In their most recent showdown, however, Thiem deserved better than to have bowed out via such a routine scoreline. The 22-year-old converted only one of 15 break-point opportunities, whereas Djokovic capitalized on three of his six chances. In the total points category, the world No. 1 took 52 percent to Thiem’s 48 percent.

Thiem certainly benefited from some luck when Rafael Nadal’s third-round withdrawal opened things up in the second quarter of the Roland Garros bracket, but it is not as if the Austrian needs any help to achieve great success on a consistent basis. He was already doing that long before this fortnight–just not on this kind of stage. Thiem is second on tour behind Djokovic in match victories in 2016 and boasts three titles, giving him six for his career. The world No. 15’s final tune-up for this tournament resulted in the Nice winner’s trophy and he has maintained momentum with Paris defeats of Inigo Cervantes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Alexander Zverev, Marcel Granollers, and David Goffin.
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“He’s one of the leaders of the new generation,” Djokovic said of his upcoming opponent. “I’m sure he’s very motivated to show himself and others that he deserves to be at the top and compete for biggest titles. He’s playing the best tennis of his life–no doubt about it. The results are showing that.

“He’s played a lot of matches, especially on clay, which is his favorite surface. I’m sure he’s going to give it all in (the) semis. But I have something to fight for, as well.”

What Djokovic is fighting for, of course, is the career Grand Slam. The top-seeded Serb came within one win of lifting the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the first time last year only to get derailed by an on-fire Stan Wawrinka. He has put himself within two victories this time around following victories over Yen-Hsun Lu, Steve Darcis, Aljaz Bedene, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Tomas Berdych.
Djoker
“It’s gonna be unbelievably tough,” Thiem admitted. “I think he’s a little bit on a different level than all the other players.”

“It’s going to be a good one,” Djokovic added.

But how good can Thiem make it? Although the underdog has crucially managed to avoid any energy-sapping five-setters so far, he dropped sets to Cervantes, Zverev, Granollers, and Goffin–with his first two sets against the Belgian especially tough in both the physical and mental departments. Djokovic, on the other hand, has been in complete cruise control aside from a one-set hiccup against Bautista Agut. Expect something similar to their Miami contest, featuring plenty of entertainment and Djokovic raising his level in pressure-packed moments at the expense of an adversary who has never before been in this situation.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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49 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

  1. RBA can’t serve, if he did he was going to go take Djokovic to 5 and maybe have a shot. Djokovic was terrible for most of that game. and I love Bautista Agut and hes a real fun player to watch, but his serve is one of the worst for any top 50 player in Tennis, even worse than the standard spaniard. Can’t beat any top player serving that slowly and badly

    Also, I am not sure why it would be embarrassing to lose 2 sets to Goffin, Goffin is a very good tennis player and has played well. either player djokovic would’ve faced today would’ve been his toughest test in this tourney.

    And I dont even care about the guy, but to disregard Thiem despite everything he has accomplished this year and the way he’s played is not paying attention to him or his game. Djokovic will win, and if he wins in 3 it wouldn’t be surprising- but then he’ll have to finally try and play a lot better is all im saying. he wont be getting another RBA or Berdbrain in this round, he’ll be getting someone who can matchup to him in more than 1 way

    • Novak doesn’t have to play his best in a fourth round match! RBA was never going to bear him. He did what he had to do.

      Nobody is dismissing Thiem out of hand. I see a lot of respect for him here. However, he is going up against the #1 player in the world. Anyone who has watched Novak knows how tough it is to take him out in a slam.

      Just ask Rafa! Even when he got the better of Novak, it was not easy!

      This is a big step up for Thiem. We will have to wait and see how he handles it.

      He’s got a bright future no matter what.

  2. Novak looks strange this year. Many players can break his
    serving game. He looked tired during the match. He won because of an easy draw. His opponents made their own mistake and unforced error. I am not a fan of both but believe Theme can win this match

  3. Novak will take the first two sets then Thiem will take the third.. making Novak lose his nerve throwing his racket and breaking the teeth of some hapless ball boy. He will be sent off from RG and his decline in tennis from thereon will be relentless.

    • I think it will be a great women’s final. Garbine is playing very well. She did beat serena at RG two years ago, so she will have that to give her confidence.

      Serena is a beast in slam finals.

  4. Boris Becker is wearing his I’M VERY SERIOUS face. I reckon the whole clan are worried in case they won’t get their big bonuses this year. I recall he looked like that last year.

  5. Thiem playing into Djoko’s hands, should slow down and not giving Djoko the pace that Djoko so likes.

    I think only Stan and Delpo could hit consistently with depth and pace to trouble Djoko. Rafa works by hitting slower heavy spinny shots on this court that doesnt allow Djoko to dictate.

  6. Unnecessary ‘in your face’ celebration when Thiem came close to breaking the Djokovic serve. It is a largely youngish crowd who have got into to see this and are rooting heavily for the underdog.

  7. You’d think one of them TC or NBC would broadcast Nole/Dom! and stay with it. dang. Both have Andy/Stan. Only a score to follow.

  8. Was kinda relying on Djokovic getting a bit nervous or something due to (burden of expectations bla bla bla) but no shit…he is in 5th gear today and wants his RG title.

    Thiem is playing stpid tactically as well. Perhaps trying to copy Stan

  9. Dont understand why Thiem keeps engaging in BH to BH exchanges with Djoko. Doesnt he know Djoko has one of the best DHBH in the game? Thiem has a better FH than the BH but prefers to camp at the BH corner and hits CC whole day long!

    Massive failure by his coach for not doing his homework and advises Thiem about it. He could just move his feet and hits his FH to change the dynamics of the rally. Serious brain cramp!

  10. TOO damn good from Djokovic. No matter how well Thiem plays here, it is irrelevant as this is beyond his capability.

  11. getting the Wawrinka-Murray Match here…is Thiem playing that badly or is Djokovic playing real well so far today?

  12. Thiem too inexperienced, made some poor shot selections. He’s not Rafa, so playing from so far behind the baseline and not having good anticipation skills will not help him even if he can move quickly (though no where near Rafa on clay and Djoko now).

  13. Actually Goffin has better skills and varieties than Thiem; Thiem just hits hard and tries to overpower or outhit his opponents, fits the bill of hard hitting tennis that Rafa mentioned. Its not going to work against the big four though unless on their off days.

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