The two favorites in the bottom half of the French Open draw are through to a semifinal tilt on Friday. It will be No. 2 seed Andy Murray going up against defending champ Stan Wawrinka. A three-team panel makes its predictions.
(3) Stan Wawrinka vs. (2) Andy Murray
Ricky: There are plenty of arguments for both sides of this blockbuster semifinal showdown at Roland Garros. Wawrinka tuned up for this event by triumphing on the clay courts of Geneva. More importantly, he has to be confident as the defending French Open champion. The No. 3 seed did not play like it earlier in the tournament, but he has performed well since scraping through his opener against Lukas Rosol in five sets. Wawrinka is also 3-0 in his last three matchups with Murray.
But Murray was not particularly interested when they squared off at the World Tour Finals last fall (he wanted to head to the clay courts of Belgium for the Davis Cup final). The second-ranked Scot will obviously be exceedingly motivated this time around, two wins away from his third slam title and first in Paris. Since surviving five-setters against Radek Stepanek and Mathias Bourgue, Murray has been outstanding. It would also be foolish to forget Murray’s form leading into this fortnight : he extended Novak Djokovic to three sets in Madrid and upset him in the Rome final. Wawrinka, on the other hand, has not defeated a top 10 opponent this entire year. This is Murray’s third consecutive French Open semifinal; the third time will be the charm. Murray 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Pete Ziebron: Wawrinka and Murray struggled mightily in their opening matches, both being extended to five sets. In Murray’s case he also needed to go the distance in the second round, as he was forced to play 10 sets of tennis against the world No. 128 and world No. 164. Since that time, both men have steadied their respective games, successfully advanced, and now meet for the 16th time in their careers.
Wawrinka has quietly won three titles this year, but it certainly feels like Murray’s lone title in 2016 (Rome, over Djokovic in the final) towers over the accomplishments by the Swiss. That being said, Wawrinka is beginning to feel comfortable at the place where he won his second career major last season. The Swiss has won the last three meetings with Murray and concurrently enjoys a seven-set winning streak over the Brit. Wawrinka will be on to the final once again. Wawrinka 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-5.
Adam Leigh: At first look it seems like Wawrinka just isn’t playing well enough to beat Murray and go on to defend his French Open crown. But, in truth, he didn’t look like he was playing very well before he won last year’s title. Earlier this season the Swiss looked slightly out of shape and somewhat disinterested, but for the second time in a row he has come alive on the terre battue of Roland Garros. All of a sudden he looks fit, his footwork and set up are assured, and he’s teeing off from both wings with real purpose.
There’s no question Murray has improved on the clay; he’s more patient and willing to construct points from behind the baseline than he had been in the past. He excels at taking time away from his opponents even on slow surfaces. Wawrinka, though, has always given him problems–precisely because the world No. 4 doesn’t need a lot of time to get through his wonderfully efficient strokes. Wawrinka has never been short of belief than his best game is more than a match for any of the “Big 4.” For all Murray’s improvement and his exceptional athleticism, he’s still not a pure clay-courter, Wawrinka will expose that in the semifinal on his eventual way to a successful defense of the title. Wawrinka 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6.
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I think Murray will be Djoko’s toughest opponent here when Stan is no longer in Stanimal mode and Thiem is just a hard hitting, not very ‘bright’, ‘takes so long to figure things out in a match’ inexperienced young gun; and Berdych is of course Thomas ‘Birdbrain’.
It depends on how Murray plays really; Djoko will most surely comes out all guns blazing like today. If Murray gets tempted and gets drawn into fast pace hard hitting war like Thiem did, he will play into the hands of Djoko. If Murray moves to the net and takes his chances, he may beat Djoko; engaged in long drawn out war and Murray will most likely loses.
I did see Thiem getting into an all out hitting fest with Novak. From what I got to see of that match, I could immediately realize that his tactics were all wrong. He would hit the ball hard, harder and hardest. You can’t beat Novak in a baseline slug fest.
I think Murray does have the weapons to beat Novak. This is the best he has played in a long time. These are both guys with great ROS, so they will both be looking to put pressure on each other’s serves.
I think Andy will have to mix aggressive tennis with his strong defensive skills. He will need to attack Novak and I think trying to go to net might be a good strategy.
I think this time Andy will come into the final with real belief. That is half the battle. He will have a day off, so that will help with all the time he has spent on court. He is battle tested. Will that be the difference? Or will Novak being the fresher player ultimately be the deciding factor,
hmmm, not sure long rallies are all that advantageous for Nole…Murray can run forever, not sure Nole can…I think Nole will go for shorter points…
Murray must defend the best he can…not saying he should play defensive tennis just will have to respond to Nole’s offense with his trademark defense and he may get some advantage…
Nole is under huge pressure…much more than Andy I would say…but Nole is looking good out there…for some reason I think this one may go to 5…
Dont forget Murray had already played many long matches while Djoko didnt. When it matters, ie going the distance, Djoko will stand to gain as he’s the fittest tennis player on earth now and is fresher of the two.
We have seen many times that Murray just wilted away as the match dragged on, when Djoko was across the net.
Lucky gets it.
yeah…Murray has faded against Novak in the past ..true..but it is also true that there is something special about Murray at the moment. He is responding to adversity so damn well…just like he was doing that when he beat Novak to win two slams.
Yes, I agree about how Murray has responded to adversity. That is one of several reasons that I picked him to beat Stan.
There is something special about Murray right now. Sometimes I just have an innate feeling about a player.
The key could be how Murray holds up if it goes to a fifth set. He’s had a lot more hours on the court than Novak.
I really like how Murray has conducted himself in his matches. He is not getting into those profane tirades that just sap him of positive energy. He’s keeping his head in the game. Like when he got a time violation call when he was in a tight service game. He responded by serving an ace! That is how we saw Rafa respond to calls like that. I though it was a good sign.
your innate feeling has developed as a result of watching legends of the game since the Open Era! can’t argue with that ;)…
We should also remember that Murray pushed Novak to 5 sets last year at RG ! He is playing a lot better now so who knows, may be he’ll shatter Novak’s dream?
vr,
I know that Novak is the obvious pick. I still am not sure if I want to go with him or take a risk that Murray can pull it off. It’s been four years since he’s won a slam. It’s been a while since he beat Novak in a slam.
Novak wants this very much. I don’t know how much longer he can be denied.
I am still not ready to make my pick. I need to think about it a bit more.
Thanks for your kind words about all of the great players I have been fortunate to watch over the years. But I have been wrong, too! That is what is so great about this sport. It can be unpredictable.
I really think you said it so well about Murray at this time. Your words really resonated with me.
Chapeau to Ricky. Not only did he go against the majority of pundits by predicting Murray would emerge as the victor but he was also incredibly close with the scoreline.
i.e. Ricky had Andy winning 24 games/Stan 16
actual score Andy 22 games/Stan 14
You picked Murray too ed!
Congrats to you too!
Hey, what about me!
You even had the list of who picked who!
I had Andy in 4 sets!
By pundits I was referring to all those who earn their living commentating on and predicting matches.
Anyway I wrongly predicted 5 sets so congratulation to all those who said 4.
What impressed me was how Ricky was uncannily close to the final scoreline.
Yes, that is true. I am not good at predicting actual score lines.
But I just had a strong feeling about Murray being ready for this and being able to take the next step and make it to the final. The recent h2h may have been in stan’s favor, but I liked what I saw from Murray in gutting it out early in the tournament when he had to fight back from two sets down twice in a row. He is also keeping himself under control and not wasting precious energy with endless rants.
He will be up against it with Novak. But I think he’s ready for it.
lol… predicting the winner is good enough… number of sets is kind of a fluke esp when the player can be unpredictable (talking about Stan). So, well done to all those who picked Murray 😉
With so much at stake it has been obvious Djokovic is feeling the pressure and has been for some months. Even yesterday playing Berdy, and cruising to an easy win, he was so tense he gave vent to his anger almost every time he lost a point to him. With Stan out of the way and no Rafa he may be able to keep his frustration under control. It will all hinge on which Murray shows up on whether or not Djokovic finally get the RG monkey off his back.
Murray will have his chances as long as he doesnt come out playing sluggish tennis.
I heard from one of the commentators at Fox Sports, Anne Keathevong (spelling?) that Murray has a team that does all the analysis work for him – analyzing how his potential opponents play and then devise gameplans for Murray accordingly. It seems that Murray is going the way of Djoko, being very professional in his approach to his matches. I do feel Fedal didnt have to do all that to win their matches, and still they achieved ehat they’d achieved! Well, that speaks well about what talent and abilities they had/have.
Murray’s hero has died. RIP Muhammad Ali.
Oh my God! Muhummad Ali had died! Oh no!
Luckystar JUNE 4, 2016 AT 3:59 AM
—Murray has a team that does all the analysis work for him – analyzing how his potential opponents play and then devise gameplans for Murray accordingly. —
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Oh, that’s why Murray yell at them during his matches!
Correction to AT 6:43AM
yell ➽ yells
He consults their briefing notes during changeovers.
And Djokovic pays a fortune to commune with Mystic Meg at changeovers. Just joking