The two favorites in the bottom half of the French Open draw are through to a semifinal tilt on Friday. It will be No. 2 seed Andy Murray going up against defending champ Stan Wawrinka. A three-team panel makes its predictions.
(3) Stan Wawrinka vs. (2) Andy Murray
Ricky: There are plenty of arguments for both sides of this blockbuster semifinal showdown at Roland Garros. Wawrinka tuned up for this event by triumphing on the clay courts of Geneva. More importantly, he has to be confident as the defending French Open champion. The No. 3 seed did not play like it earlier in the tournament, but he has performed well since scraping through his opener against Lukas Rosol in five sets. Wawrinka is also 3-0 in his last three matchups with Murray.
But Murray was not particularly interested when they squared off at the World Tour Finals last fall (he wanted to head to the clay courts of Belgium for the Davis Cup final). The second-ranked Scot will obviously be exceedingly motivated this time around, two wins away from his third slam title and first in Paris. Since surviving five-setters against Radek Stepanek and Mathias Bourgue, Murray has been outstanding. It would also be foolish to forget Murray’s form leading into this fortnight : he extended Novak Djokovic to three sets in Madrid and upset him in the Rome final. Wawrinka, on the other hand, has not defeated a top 10 opponent this entire year. This is Murray’s third consecutive French Open semifinal; the third time will be the charm. Murray 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Pete Ziebron: Wawrinka and Murray struggled mightily in their opening matches, both being extended to five sets. In Murray’s case he also needed to go the distance in the second round, as he was forced to play 10 sets of tennis against the world No. 128 and world No. 164. Since that time, both men have steadied their respective games, successfully advanced, and now meet for the 16th time in their careers.
Wawrinka has quietly won three titles this year, but it certainly feels like Murray’s lone title in 2016 (Rome, over Djokovic in the final) towers over the accomplishments by the Swiss. That being said, Wawrinka is beginning to feel comfortable at the place where he won his second career major last season. The Swiss has won the last three meetings with Murray and concurrently enjoys a seven-set winning streak over the Brit. Wawrinka will be on to the final once again. Wawrinka 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-5.
Adam Leigh: At first look it seems like Wawrinka just isn’t playing well enough to beat Murray and go on to defend his French Open crown. But, in truth, he didn’t look like he was playing very well before he won last year’s title. Earlier this season the Swiss looked slightly out of shape and somewhat disinterested, but for the second time in a row he has come alive on the terre battue of Roland Garros. All of a sudden he looks fit, his footwork and set up are assured, and he’s teeing off from both wings with real purpose.
There’s no question Murray has improved on the clay; he’s more patient and willing to construct points from behind the baseline than he had been in the past. He excels at taking time away from his opponents even on slow surfaces. Wawrinka, though, has always given him problems–precisely because the world No. 4 doesn’t need a lot of time to get through his wonderfully efficient strokes. Wawrinka has never been short of belief than his best game is more than a match for any of the “Big 4.” For all Murray’s improvement and his exceptional athleticism, he’s still not a pure clay-courter, Wawrinka will expose that in the semifinal on his eventual way to a successful defense of the title. Wawrinka 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6.
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i like my chances!
Stan will win in 4 is my prediction as well, unless Murray finds way to serve a lot better and be more consistent. After all, he’s never made the Finals here and eventhough he’s improved a lot on Clay I think Stans experience from last year and recent form in this tourney will help him win and I think his chances to repeat are quite likely if he makes the Finals.
I really enjoy the comments from different experts. The majority are going with Stan. I did not know about the recent H2H advantage with Stan.
I am still going with Murray because he’s been battle tested and showed some grit and toughness.
This should be a good match. I see it going at least 4 sets. I will say that I don’t believe that Murray can afford to go down two sets. He has to come out aggressive right from the start.
Battle tested against 100th players? Right
You must have forgotten the likes of karlovic, Isner and Gasquet. All quality players. Andy had a tough draw, not including the first two players.
However, you miss the point. It’s not the ranking that matters, it’s how a player comes out and competes in the court. Andy seemed to start off slowly and not be at his best and his opponents came out and played well. Any time you can stave off an early exit from a slam by coming back from two sets down, it’s a good thing!
We have seen top players get upset in the early rounds of slams many times. In fact, Stan also had to come back from the brink in one of his early round matches, too.
i didn’t know until just now that andy has his worst numbers on return against stan!! that could be a huge factor. i don’t know what to think right now…could easily swing either way. i certainly don’t agree with ricky’s describing andy’s tennis as ‘outstanding’ he nearly went down 2 sets to love against gasquet and was making a lot of errors,especially on ros. against a better opponent he would have dropped 2 sets and there would maybe have been no way back.
if stan is on i see him winning but it’s so hard to know which stan will show up. heavy conditions favour his power game as well. but stan’s tendency to go for broke down the line on the second shot even when he keeps missing makes me nervous. he’ll have to either hit his shots or be able to adapt. magnus normann’s influence could have a big role in the outcome of the match.
I really like your last couple of points! I said similar things in my little preview below.
Also, you are right about the ROS. Andy will have to be very efficient with returns as Stan is a very good server.
thanx vr! if stan makes the dtl shots you have to think he will win providing his first serve percentage is high enough. am very interested to see what strategy magnus norman will come up with..he has a great tennis brain. stan has murdered andy’s second serve in the past so that also could be a key factor…so far andy hasn’t played anyone who has consistently gone after that shot. remember how stan destroyed it in uso 13? if that happens again surely andy goes down.
like you i see this as more on stan’s racket than andy’s but which stan will turn up? that’s the question…
When Stan is in the zone and crushes the ball from both wings as he did against Novak in last year’s final, he is simply untouchable, not even by Rafa Nadal.
“not even by Rafa Nadal” ?????
Lol
Guess it’s an extremely rare happenstance then.
(About as often as Rafa injures his back during a match, for example?.)
Stanimal ftw in four sets. ALLEZ STAN!!
Murray has been starting slowly in almost all his matches. Remember, he has played a lot lately and that may be the reason for his slow starts. He takes his time to find his zone and then plays at a high level. If he starts slow again tomorrow, he will be swept off the court quicker than he realizes what’s happening. Murray MUST keep stan on the move and take the initiative.
Stan is playing well enough to defeat Murray. He is not the type of player who destroys the field before running into the top players. Even last year, he lost a set to Lajovic in the 4th rnd and played a very tough match against Tsonga in the semi but he produced his best when it mattered.
This is more on Stan’s racket than it is on Andy’s. Stan will surely play his tennis but not sure how aggressive Murray will play from the start. Murray relies on attacking second serves and Stan has a really good second serve even that will be a challenge.
NO wonder Stan has won their last three meetings. In fact, the swiss has not lost a SET in their last three matches!
This is EASILY the best surface for Stan to defeat Djokovic and Murray.
That day, I was live blogging with @AMY and we talked about how Stan was missing a lot of forehands DTL. Well, he will badly need that shot in the next two matches and there is no other way. His CC forehand is consistent and reliable but the DTL one MUST be functioning well.
Lastly, one big advantage clay gives to Stan is that he has time to take swings at first serve returns ! On the quicker surfaces, he simply bunts back lots of returns off both wings and recedes control. On clay, he is a fine returner.
Pick: Wawrinka in 4
Stan’s won their only two clay court meetings, both in straight sets. I believe the surface provides an advantage to him.
On another note, hats off to Murray for reaching his 3rd successive semi here. Lots of people used to say he was useless on clay but he has transformed into a consistent, formidable clay courter capable of winning the entire thing.
The Stanimal has plenty of belief he can defend his title. That I am sure of. Really looking forward to this one.
vr,
You do know how to make a very good case for Stan, but my bracket needs Andy ftw, so I must stay with my ship — even if it’s destined to sink. It will be close, I hope — 5 long, exciting sets ? and improvement over the 2 great sets and 2 kinda meh sets that we had today from Thiem/Goffin.
Andy in 5.
lol… Rc, Muzz is a very very capable player and I know he has a very good shot at this one…but yeah, kinda think Stan has the edge.
‘an improvement’, not ‘and’…edit
Murray in 4 sets.
I expect to see a lot of yelling from the players to their respective camps, either player will give Nole a good run for the title (if Nole wins)
although I would like to see Stan doing the job, I still expect Andy to win. I don’t think Stan is playing well enough to beat Andy. In fact, Stan would have better chance against Novak than Andy at this point. I hope I am wrong and Stan raises to the occasion and ends up beating Andy…
I think Andy beating Novak on clay has a lot to do with Andy’s increased confidence. Andy is a confidence player. He will shout, he will complain, he will drag on the court like he is an injured animal, but he will most certainly end up wining.
I just hope this one doesn’t go to 5. I do not want a tired, mentally exhausted (read useless!) opponent facing Novak in the finals.
I understand Andy is somewhat subservient to Stan on clay…and Stan should be the favorite as the defending Champ…but, for some reason I think Andy will be the man this time, not Stan…
WaWa is talking the talk but defending a title is easier said than done – even more so when it is a slam. He still has to walk the walk.
Many people are attaching undue weight to the recent H2H in WaWa’s favour without taking into account a number of factors. In 2015 Murray devoted most of last year to the Davis Cup campaign; in 2014 he was playing cautiously following back surgery; in 2013 he was in sufficient pain to opt for surgery as a last resort to alleviate the problem which had plagued him for some years.
#Ricky gets it
My pick.
Murray in 5
my pick: Andy in 4
McEnroes take on Andy
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jun/02/andy-murray-john-mcenroe-french-open-novak-djokovic?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=175405&subid=13161473&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
Last night I was watching the talking heads on the Leconte programme.discussing todays semi-finals. Apparently Djokovic is furious at being pushed out to the Lenglen court. He also came in for heavy criticism over the way he bullied the officials to suspend play yesterday when it was not actually raining at that point. He is not the flavour of the month in Paris right now 🙂
I also heard RG have been losing 2million euros a day as a result of refunds and compensation. My daughter was so bored watching the Djokovic match yesterday she moved over to the Lenglen court to see Thiem play and nobody even checked her ticket so she wandered in unchallenged.
All it needs is for Roland Garros to be flooded now to complete the fiasco this tournament has become.
Djokovic is and was right.
Murray in 5. Cmon bra
Waw’s loss today means that Rafa will rise to No.4 in the rankings when they are issued on Monday. Well done, Andy!
https://tenngrand.com/2016/06/01/french-open-sf-preview-prediction-murray-vs-wawrinka/comment-page-3/#comment-119996
Done
Murray is peaking at the right time.
I agree!
murray played very well today but stan made it easy for him. he didn’t return or serve well. he let murray’s second serves just go unpunished. we all know that nole will not be so generous. he will also serve much more accurately than stan did today…that difference in first strike tennis will make a huge difference…
allez nole!!!
it’s going to be hot on sunday around 23 after the cold. that helps murray though as the court will be faster
agree, amy. And I’ll be gutted if Nole loses, have to admit. But Andy winning FO would also be incredible.. just NOT this year!!! please!!!
i want nole to win rc..but i am nervous…
how will nole handle the change in temperature?
murray won’t be able to defend so well on a faster court although speed does help him…
the greatest returner of all time has to bring that shot on sunday and do a number on murray’s second serve. it was astonishing how stan left that shot alone today and changed the whole dynamic of the match. murray had no pressure on his first serve as a result…
Think you are right there, too. Stan was far from his best — not enough Stanimal today.
Not to take away from Andy’s win, tho. He was as focused and on target as I thought he’d be after watching him this spring. I even considered picking him as the winner over Nole or Rafa in my bracket because they would have have had an immense SF. What pressure does Andy have? Mamma mia! It’s just tennis, right. Cheers, amy.
Oooh, I think Nole’s pressure is tenfold that of Ahndee’s.
Don’t you? Or do you.
Stan’s problem was his inconsistency. It’s more than not attacking andy’s second serve. Andy has improved his second serve. So it’s not as attackable. That was not why Stan lost. Murray was the steadier and stronger player in that match. He stayed tough and focused, limited the on court tantrums and shouting and kept his cool. I thought his defense was outstanding.
Andy earned that win. Stan’s inability to maintain a consistently high enough level of play was what cost him the match.
NNY is right…. actually, Stan started the match really well. He was overpowering Murray but Murray defended his backhand side SO well that he frustrated stan. Then, Murray stepped up his own aggression and Stan got really tight in set 2…he was not hitting freely at all. It was too late for the Stanimal then.
Set 1 was key….had Stan won it, he would have been confident with his hitting. It was incredible to see Murray play the extra ball on numerous occasions. Stan’s backhand CC was struck so well but somehow they kept coming back. Overall he lacked consistency but Murray getting in his head had a lot to do with it.
of course it wasn’t just about stan not attacking andy’s second serve! i said stan was poor both on serve and ros but also of course he was inconsistent elsewhere. i picked out the first strike pattern ie serve and ros because it is very hard to believe that nole will be so generous. that failure by stan to serve as he can and get free points and pressurise the second serve set the tone for what happened elsewhere. it meant murray was too comfortable. although again yes of course his defence was phenomenal, among other things. i see that ricky has made exactly the same point as me in his preview for the final about nole putting pressure on the second serve so what i said has some validity!! that shot has improved but he hasn’t suddenly become sampras and stan could have done a lot more…
i like murray’s chances now that nole is under pressure in the final and he can swing freely although that doesn’t mean i would necessarily pick him…
I thought Murray has improved his second serve? The way he played at Madrid and Rome, its obvious his second serve has greatly improved, that may be why his first serve % also goes up as he’s more relaxed serving, trusting both his 1st and 2nd serve.
ATP Media Info @ATPMediaInfo 47m47 minutes ago
Most #GrandSlam Open Era final meetings:
#Federer-#Nadal 8
#Djokovic-#Murray 7
#Djokovic-#Nadal 7
Agassi-Sampras 5
Lendl-Wilander 5
#GROAT