French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Zverev

Both Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev probably feel like they should already be in the French Open final. One of them, however, will be ousted in the semis on Friday afternoon.

Nadal needed five sets to get past Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round, after which he outlasted world No. 1 Novak Djokovic 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(4) on Tuesday night. That quarterfinal contest between the two all-time greats lasted four hours and 12 minutes. Fortunately for Nadal, he has two full days off prior to the semis and his first three matches–against Jordan Thompson, Corentin Moutet, and Botic van de Zandschulp–were walks in the park.

Zverev was one point away from being bounced out in the second round. The third-ranked German came back from the brink of defeat to beat Sebastian Baez 2-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 7-5. Zverev also got the best of Sebastian Ofner, Brandon Nakashima, and Bernabe Zapata Miralles to reach the last 16, where he upset Carlos Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(7) on Tuesday.

Needless to say, it has not been easy for either man.

But they have made it to semifinal Friday, and their reward is a 10th career head-to-head meeting. Nadal holds a 6-3 lead in the series, including 4-1 on clay. They faced each other twice last spring on the red stuff, with Zverev pulling off a 6-4, 6-4 upset in Madrid before Nadal–playing in far more favorable conditions–gained revenge in the form of a 6-3, 6-4 victory at the Madrid Masters.

Conditions should be back in the 35-year-old’s favor on Friday. His quarterfinal showdown against Djokovic was played late at night, but the first semifinal between Nadal and Zverev is scheduled for 2:45 pm local. That’s much better for the Spaniard’s game, even though–let’s be honest–it hardly matters what the situation is whenever he takes the court at Roland Garros. After all, Nadal is 110-3 lifetime at this tournament with 13 titles.

He can’t win No. 14 on Friday, but he can put himself in great position. And given his form throughout the fortnight and two day of rest following his hard-fought defeat of Djokovic, that is exactly what Nadal can be expected to do.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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33 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Zverev

  1. I live a 4 and a half hour drive from Paris and here the weather is humid but very sunny.. unfortunate that they have to close the roof in Paris

  2. There is almost always an element of drama whenever Rafa is playing some important match, lol!!! It’s like the gods just like for Rafa to be battling, something or another!! Sigh!!

  3. Oh my gosh, Zverev has suffered a bad fall, has to be wheel-chaired away for treatment! Oh what drama! Come on it’s Rafa’s birthday today, please no more drama!

  4. So sad for Zverev! I want Rafa to win but not in this way!

    I hope Zverev’s injury is not too serious and hope it would not affect the rest of his season. So sorry for him, he’s playing well enough to push Rafa to the limit here.

  5. Rafa would not want to win this way. I hope Zverev recovers soon. He gave it his all. I think some here underestimated him. He was putting up quite a fight.

  6. Sad to see any match end like this, for the crowd, for Sasha, (not so much for Rafa, I’m sure he’ll also be sad yet relieved that this gruelling sweat marathon)
    Commiserations to Zverev fans, he’ll be back again. As Rafa just said, he has a few slams in him yet.

  7. Oh no!! That’s a real bummer!! Zverev deserves better than this!!! He did out up a fight, I have a renewed appreciation for Zverev”s game and I do wish him a speedy recovery! I’m sure the ankle is not bad as it looks and he’ll be back in quick time, but it’s just really unfortunate. It’s not Rafa”s fault obviously so he can go rest and wait for Sunday! Hope the conditions r more favorable! Vamos!!

    Meanwhile I’m stuck at the office!! 😆

    • me too. not able to watch live. just watching scores. but really sad for Zverev. it should not end like this for any player.

  8. Happy for the win, but… didn’t want it this way. I was NOT looking forward to a final between Abuserev and Cilic!! Nor did I want to see an exhausted Rafa barely able to move in the final. So I’ll take it. Rafa was moving so slowly in the first few games, it really scared me. He is mortal, he can get worn down, even at RG, and the tennis gods seem to be doing their darndest. I have never seen such awful draws as Rafa has faced – and conquered! – this year.

  9. I switched off half way through the second set.
    Have never done that before but I honestly thought Rafa was gone physically and I just couldn’t watch.
    All credit to him if he managed to hold on until.the tb.
    Sorry it ended this way but glad for Rafa. Obviously I didn’t see the fall.
    Really really hope they don’t play under the roof on Sunday and that it’s not you know who.

  10. Yeah, hope it’s bright sunshine on Sunday but whoever meets Rafa in the final will try to grind Rafa down seeing how he struggled physically. So he needs to approach match all guns blazing so he can wrap it up in three!! I hoping so but I can’t watch Rafa age 10 years in the tennis court!! Vamos Rafa, good luck on Sunday!! 🙏🏽

  11. Let’s not forget the drop shots at 5 all first set and the 4 fh winners back to back to steal the first set tb..

    That needs shouting from rooftops for its brilliance

    • Sanju,

      Yes! Thank you for pointing it out!

      Rafa should be exhausted with this draw. Playing Novak in the quarterfinals was brutal. That takes it out of him, I am not surprised that he looked tired. That should have been the final.

      It’s the only break Rafa has gotten. But I am sorry it had to come by Zverev getting injured.

      I hope Rafa can take a break and get ready for the final.

      • Nny..beating a member of big 3 does take its toll ..it invariably has a let down next match on most occasions what happ to Novak last year in rg final.. he lost the first 2 sets…he was helped by a huge choke job by Stefanos..

        I bet rafa is nervous too n saw this as a danger match given that he is very close to title..let’s cut him some slack ,he is 36 now n had come off 2 tough matches before n no much lead event preps

        How’s weather for Sunday? If we get Cilic under roof it will be dangerous.. Casper is playing well but I expect Casper will trouble rafa less than cilic

        • Sanju,

          I am in complete agreement with you! So well said! I think it’s amazing that Rafa had played two back-to-back matches totaling about 8 hours. Having to play his biggest rival and the no. 1 player in the quarterfinal after playing Felix in the fourth round. He really got the draw from hell.

          Rafa talked about the tough conditions during the match and how it affected his ability to make his shots. The humidity with the roof closed was terrible. Jim Courier said that Rafa had to keep the balls out of the pockets of his shorts because they would get wet and be even heavier. Rafa did so well to fight hard and win the first set.

          Unfortunately, I heard that the weather is supposed to be rainy and humid again. 😡

          Roof may well have to be closed again.

    • Sanju, Rafa is just putting things into perspective, and he is right! The amount of pain he probably goes through I would not want to be in his shoes!!! So I can understand y he is saying that given that he has to live with something like that for the rest of his life and that it impacts his career. Luckily for Rafa he gets to turn 36 today and he has more money that he can spend. He has a successful academy and he can look forward to so many post career opportunities while enjoying his legacy. Rafa is in good stead!! Winning the trophy on Sunday would be just the cherry on top 😁

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