French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

Diego Schwartzman has been the biggest story of the abbreviated 2020 clay-court swing. He upset Rafael Nadal en route to the final of the Rome Masters and outlasted U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem in a French Open quarterfinal match that lasted more than five hours.

Nadal in Rome and Thiem at Roland-Garros were extremely tough tests, and now Schwartzman faces the toughest test of all: Nadal in the semifinals of a tournament that the Spaniard has won 12 times.

Friday’s meeting will be the 11th of their careers, and the Argentine’s victory last month in Rome was his first. Nadal had previously been sweeping the head-to-head series 9-0, including 22-2 in total sets. One of those sets won by Schwartzman came at none other than the French Open, when Nadal prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2018 quarterfinals.

Nobody has managed to take a set off the King of Clay this fortnight even though fall conditions in Paris may not be as ideal for him as they are in May and June. Nadal eased his way into the semifinals by beating Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, Sebastian Korda, and Jannik Sinner.

Schwartzman obviously remains in outstanding form on the heels of his runner-up performance in Rome. The world No. 14, who will crack the top 10 for the first time in his career next week, preceded his triumph over Thiem with defeats of Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Giustino, Norbert Gombos, and Lorenzo Sonego. He had not surrendered a set prior to going up against Thiem.

“It’s a challenge,” Nadal assured. “When you lost to somebody, (it) is because he’s playing well. [Against Thiem] he played an amazing match against one of the best players of the world, without a doubt, especially on this surface. He’s coming with big confidence.”

The Rome result may be big for Schwartzman’s confidence, but it does little to suggest he can do the same in Paris. After all, a best-of-five situation is a whole different beast and so is the stage of Roland-Garros–where Nadal is a laughable 98-2 lifetime.

Two days off will help Schwartzman, who will be fine physically at the start. It is at the business end of the match when the underdog will start to feel the effects of the Thiem match in his legs. Moreover, the conditions are not as bad for Nadal as advertised, so he has every reason to take care of business and avenge the recent Rome loss.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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140 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

  1. Going to ask the question again here where it belongs:
    Is Rafa’s ridiculous Diego complex going to appear again??!
    If it does I will go berserk!

      • Yes but he played horribly against Diego for a set and a half at Rg the year before last! He only got better after they went off court. If it was just Rome I wouldn’t worry but it’s concerning to me that it’s happened twice including at Rg.
        I do actually think that paradoxically Diego beating Dom and beating Rafa at Rome may help Rafa. Because of this, people are saying Diego.has a chance which no one would have said before. That eases the pressure on Rafa imo.

  2. Let’s all give credit to Ricky .didn’t he predict exactly these 4 semifinalists .I don’t think anyone else did..now I hope Ricky’s finalists come true too 🙂

  3. Rafa was lacking match play in Rome and Diego was on fire. This time, Rafa has a few matches under his belt so he should fare better. Hope I’ll have a smile on my face this time tomorrow.

    Vamos Rafa!

  4. But Diego for some reason plays rafa extremely tough.. even at the uso 2019 i remember diego came back from two breaks down in two sets and the end result was much closer than the score indicated.. also at ao 2018 he made things tough for rafa.. that guy just runs down everything but yeah if rafa is unable to take diego down there was no chance he would have been able to take novak down.. hope it is not a long drawn affair though

  5. I don’t understand this analysis about tired legs. It is clear Diego is physically fit and aerobically fit. Because Diego is shorter and has less mass, he probably has an aerobic advantage. He can chase down balls from both sides without much huffing and puffing even in the 5th set against Thiem. He can hit both sides of the court, he can do angles, he can volley, and he can do drop shots comfortably. Also he is younger and AFAIK free of major injuries unlike Nadal.

    Nadal gets an inner spiritual boost at Roland Garros that’s for sure. Nadal is my favorite player but I think Schwartzman will prevail in 4 or 5 sets.

  6. Nadal in 4 is the most likely result. Nadal is simply too strong in this court over 5 sets and there’s several strong reasons why Diego shouldn’t lose 3-0 as well.

  7. Schwartzman shouldve beaten Theim in 3-4 sets, instead he nearly lost and he only just won in 5. That’s a blemish IMO on his prospects in this match. He beat Nadal in Rome because he was fresh and playing mostly on instinct and Nadal was lacking a bit of fitness.

    This is a different ball game now, its over 5 sets, the bull is much fitter and Nadal will be ready.

    That suggests that Schwartzman will be lucky to win a set in this semi-final. If he beat Theim the way he shouldve then I’d be more willing to take him on but not after that performance.

    Nadal in 4 (maybe 3)

    • Anonymous, I completely agree with ure analysis there! And Diego may not be tired physically but he may be emotionally, and the prospect of causing such an upset will just make it even worse!!

      Rafa in 3, at most 4!

  8. Yeah, I agree, it’s Rafa in three or at worst four sets. I doubt Rafa is going to be like Thiem and let it drag on to five sets.

    Diego may not be tired after the match with Thiem but when made to run against Rafa, the fresher of the two ie Rafa will have the advantage.

  9. Nadal definitely the favourite here. But this is a very tough match still. I’m surprised most of you are so relaxed and confident and already count him in the final.
    A 3-2 win or a very long 3-1 still dangerous as Djoko/Tsitsi have more matchplay this season. Nadal has to close this quickly to make his life easy in the final.
    I think Schartz will have his chances. Should be interesting.

  10. I hope the real Nadal turns up. He wasn’t match fit in Rome and Diego was red hot. Rafa was unable to penetrate Diego’s game then and dropping his serve early in the match just gave Diego to go for winners and retrieve the most impossible balls and it just shut Rafa out.

    Today Rafa is more match ready but he will have to strike early in order to take control of the match.

    Have to admit, I am nervous.

    Vamos Rafa!

    • I was actually more nervous about Sinner! Plenty!!! But true true, I will be nervous all throughout first set as Rafa always starts off slow, and we wonder y Rafa gets nervous, ah ha!!

      Many will be watching this match especially Roger fans, cause if Rafa wins today its one more step towards #20!!

    • This kind of talk reminds me of Mohamed Ali before a fight, lol! Besides, Tsistipas might just have something to say about that bold statement, lol!!

    • I suspect he’s bucking Novak up. The only time he beat Rafa at RG was when even Djoker admitted that Rafa just wasn’t playing at his usual level.

  11. I like Goran, he’s a fun guy but, what else is he going to say? He’s always been a bit larger than life , you don’t get to win Wimbledon as a wildcard for nothing, lol
    But, in this case, he’s definitely wrong. In any other place Novak would be favourite but not here, I don’t care what conditions.

  12. LOL amy,
    I hope Rafa makes his life easier by coming out aggressive from the start.
    Otherwise he’s indeed going to suffer

  13. Epic 14 minute first game

    I have tipped Rafa to win this one in 3 sets, although I would be concerned about a Djokovic match-up if I were a Rafa fan (not much concern about Tsitsipas)

    Rafa looking a bit better on Schwartzman’s service game. Diego is trying to be the aggressor, which is a risky strategy to go for.

    • Even when Diego breaks you there’s always an opportunity to break back, because his weak serve makes it easy to get into neutral rallies

  14. Unbelievable! Why must he do
    this! He shouldn’t have lost his serve there with Diego looking crushed! He had so many chances to put previous points away!
    Now Diego will have hope again!

  15. Im not worried yet, I just find Rafa is not ominous enough! He needs to come to net more like he just did there!

    Amy, look the FHDL we’re not seeing enough of!!

  16. amy October 9, 2020 at 8:57 AM
    “It must be hard to see the ball in the sun..”

    Well, it’s almost 150 mill k away plus, it’s really hot 🙂

  17. Every service game is a torture for Rafa! He just couldn’t string two good serves together to win more comfortably his service game! Every service game of his has to get to deuce! Why is his serve so poor these days?

  18. Whew! That was a nail biter!

    I hope Rafa can loosen up now that he has the first set. But Diego will fight until the end.

  19. Lovely! Now Rafa open ure wings and play!

    And Y r the commentators so besotted with the conditions?! Of conditions will favour Rafa, blah, blah, blah! Wouldn’t the same conditions favour Diego too? Sigh!!!! So annoying!!

    Now Rafa HOLD!!

  20. At least Rafa is well on his way to defending his crown and winning his #20 in 2020!

    You hear the commentators already talking about a potential match up with Novak and how much better Novak would be able to counter Rafa’s game and Novak has not even set foot on the court yet. Sigh!! Honestly, these ppl have so shame!

  21. Very relieved to see Rafa’s 2 sets up!! Enjoy reading the comments here, but please guys could we all remember that Rafa DOES know how to play tennis? Especially at RG even under these weird conditions.

    My commies said the other day that Chatrier was not constructed with autumn play in mind – the sun is in weird places making it very hard to deal with, but Rafa is a master of dealing with weird conditions…Probably why they gave Djoker the later match. 🙁

  22. amy,

    Just when I was relaxing, Rafa has gotten the tips on his serve. I really want him to get this done in straight sets. But he is making it hard on himself. You don’t want to give Diego a lifeline.

  23. What is Rafa trying to do? He’s almost at the finish line yet he’s playing like he’s so nervous, and deuce yet again! What?

  24. Lost his serve again! What is this?? His serve is really really poor. If he loses this set, it’s all his own fault! Serving like this, how to win the title? Tsitsipas or Djoko would kill him in the final! Diego doesn’t have a big serve, if not Diego would’ve being leading the match now!

  25. What’s going on! Why the nervous play suddenly and making errors and wrong choices?
    You would think he was 2 sets down not the other way round!

  26. I am so furious I could scream! Why does it have to be this way? All Rafa needs is to let it go to a fourth set. Sorry, but I can’t take it anymore.

    • Like Thiem, I think he plays a bit conservative. But Thiem was tired, and Rafa still looks rustier than he usually would be. Although it may just be that his movement has declined since last year, I dunno.

      On a surface like this that’s impossible to hit through, Diego is kind of a nightmare.

    • Diego is hard to beat on clay; he’s a mini Djoko, can hit CC and DTL from both wings and that’s what would trouble Rafa even on clay. It’s just that his serve is not great, and that’s why Rafa, Djoko still can overcome him despite all the troubles Diego could give them. Diego could run all day and so that makes it even worse for his opponents.

  27. Yeii, another RG final for Rafa, epic!

    A Very sluggish Nadal managed to beat Diego in 3 sets, something that Thiem couldn’t do so, let’s rejoice about that.
    He’s going to have to get better for the final though

  28. What was so strange is that Rafa was hitting his forehand really well in the first 2 sets. Then he suddenly went into his shell making astonishing errors.

  29. Huh, that was nerve wracking… great tiebreak though! Well, Moya said in one of his interviews that Rafa needs to be tested and needs some tiebreaks to win! Hope this serves the purpose 😀

    13th final!!! Way to go, Rafa! Vamoooosss!!! 💪💪💪

  30. Exactly, don’t know what happened at that time, some brain freeze? He did look tired during the third set. I think maybe his stamina is not up to par yet, after the long break. This is only his second tournament after coming back from the six months break.

  31. So at 2 sets to love and a break up and cruising and in total control.did Rafa’s mad Diego complex suddenly appear??!
    If so he needs a shrink not a coach..

  32. Rafa won in straights (I did not watch as always ) n here the board is filled with comments abt how sluggish he was n how poor his fh was in third…if he was this bad ..he would not win in straights..are u folks being too critical coz if u not. Djoko will eat him up

    • If he played like this particularly in the first set, Novak will eat him up! Novak just becomes an absolute beast whenever he plays Rafa, so Rafa has no choice but to be on his A game, no bloody stupid lapses like in the tail end of 3rd set!!

      VAMOS!!

  33. Rafa really has to up his level in the final, he can’t afford to go to deuce in practically all but one of his service games, that won’t cut it against Tsitsipas or Djoko!

    Rafa please wins your 100th match at RG and wins the title this Sunday!

  34. I rewatched the match; Rafa might not be playing better than in their 2018 encounter but he still won in straight sets! He playing against Schwartzman would be a good preparation for him to meet Djoko in the final, as Schwartzman plays a similar style to Djoko, just not as good. Both Rafa and Djoko faced many BPs in their respective SF match and both managed to hold serve more often than not. I’m not sure Tsitsipas is better than Schwartzman where ROS is concerned.

    Rafa wasn’t playing poorly as he’s handling Schwartzman’s attacks from all directions – CC & DTL from both wings – and still managed to beat him in straight sets.

    Tsitsipas may be a better player than Schwarzman but what he didn’t do in the match was mixing it up with his DTL shots from both wings; instead, he just went CC BH to BH so often that it became so predictable hence Djoko was all ready for that. It’s only when he had lost the second set and staring defeat in its face that he decided to change up, playing with more varieties thus keeping Djoko guessing and so he won the next two sets. I would think that had Tsitsipas changed up after losing the first set, he might have better chances of winning the match.

    I’m sure Rafa will play better in the final, giving it his all; of course Djoko will raise his level too, it may be 50-50 chances for both but I think Rafa will win this one.

    • Luckystar OCTOBER 10, 2020 AT 3:39 AM

      “He playing against Schwartzman would be a good preparation for him to meet Djoko in the final, as Schwartzman plays a similar style to Djoko, just not as good.”
      *********************************

      Exactly my thoughts, Luckystar. Sharing your opinion on playing style means I have arrived because you are the tennis aficionado here.

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