French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Basilashvili, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

Rafael Nadal is through to the French Open third round following two routine victories, and he will try to engineer more of the same against Nikoloz Basilashvili on Friday. Grigor Dimitrov and Pablo Carreno Busta are also in action.

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal’s 2016 French Open campaign ended abruptly prior to the third round, but that exit was beyond his control. Rather than losing, the nine-time champion was felled by a wrist injury that also kept him out of Wimbledon. Now, Nadal has once again produced straight-set beatdowns in each of his first two matches and will look to progress farther–much farther–in the draw than he did last year. The fourth-ranked Spaniard improved to 74-2 lifetime at Roland Garros and 19-1 on clay this season with a 6-1, 6-4, 6-1 victory over Benoit Paire and 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 rout of Robin Haase.

Up next for Nadal on Friday is a first-ever showdown against Basilashvili. The Georgian has already equaled his previous Grand Slam match win total in his entire career (two, both at Wimbledon in 2013) by beating Gilles Simon in four sets and Viktor Troicki in three straight tiebreakers. In his only other comparable major matchup, and only other one against anyone in the top 15, Basilashvili got blown out by Roger Federer 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 at the 2016 Australian Open. An improved world No. 63 should be slightly more competitive in this one, but he is also unlikely to close to stealing a set.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(20) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (11) Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov and Carreno Busta will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers at the ATP level on Friday. Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head series 2-1, avenging a 2014 Madrid loss by prevailing once in both 2015 (Paris Masters) and 2016 (Madrid). Although they have split their two previous clay-court encounters, the surface is obviously more advantageous to Carreno Busta. Five of his six career ATP finals and two of his three titles have come on the red stuff, a surface on which he has earned 19 of his 25 match victories in 2017. Carreno Busta booked his spot in the last 32 this fortnight with a straight-set blowout of Florian Mayer and a four-set win at the expense of Taro Daniel.

Although Dimitrov is not exactly a pushover on clay, he has to be satisfied already with a third-round performance at Roland Garros. After all, the 13th-ranked Bulgarian had previously been 3-6 lifetime at this tournament with three consecutive first-round exits. He brought a four-match French Open losing streak into this year’s event, a stretch that saw him go 2-12 in total sets. So far this week, however, Dimitrov has not dropped a single set or even been pushed to a tiebreaker while taking out Stephane Robert and Tommy Robredo. This time, though, he not facing opponent well past his prime. On the contrary, Carreno Busta playing the best tennis of his life and feels right at home on this particular surface.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 4

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47 Comments on French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Basilashvili, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

  1. MA to Nny over!MA to Nny over!…Wake up!wake up!…Your darling is on fire again today!!…You’re gonna missed the amazing perfomance today if you’re not wake up soon!!

  2. Niko trying to rally with rafa…it’s not going to work!He should apply Fognini’s method,by going for broke…but,i guess he don’t have a confidence to do that…which is very okay to me!!!!The less rafa spent on court the better!!

  3. Rafa’s level has dropped a bit… actually his opponent is hitting with a bit more penetration this set and Rafa’s been leaking more errors.

  4. Rafa continues to win more points behind his SECOND serve as compared to his first serve!

    Major improvements in this department. he is going to be at the top of the ladder in second serve pts won this year.

  5. There u go!!..Alhamdulillah…amazing scores,amazing match time!…wrapped up his match in 1H30’….Onto 4th round we goes!!Woohooo!!!

    • The Time violation rule is Fed’s biggest weapon against Rafa. Rafa knows the umpires will be under pressure to impose it aggressively if the two are playing against each other, The routine is automatic. Having to consciously think of avoiding the routine disrupts Rafa’s focus and prevents him from getting into the zone. Maybe that was one of the reasons for his loss to Fed at AO.

      • Definitely a factor (plus just coming back from injury – takes Rafa longer to get his game fully back than balsam ballerina Federer).

      • I agree. The problem is of course that on paper the umpire and Fed are right. It’s the rule – whether we like it or not. And since Fed never goes over the time limit himself the umpire has very little leeway in a Fedal match.
        Personally I think there definitely should be a time limit, but the 20 second rule for slams is far too short for today’s modern tennis IMO.
        It’s a pity that Rafa developed all these routines, because it definitely throws him off, when he’s under pressure because of the time limit. Fed diagnosed that correctly.

  6. Wow. Guess Rafa wanted to finish before the thunderstorms started. He’s afraid of them. But I bet it’s nothing like the fear Rafa inspired in Niko Bash today.

  7. Well the real challenge for Rafa begins now. I think it is RBA, then probably PCB and Nole. If he bagels Nole, like he bageled Fed in 2008, this year would be 2008-like.

    • How can that be the only basis of comparison?! Fed and Nole match up very different against Rafa and both have different strengths.

      Anyway, I am not going to think about Rafa sweeping everyone aside like in RG 2008 . One match at a time. It will be a rout against RBA as well I believe.

  8. Don’t know what’s Djoko doing. He was leading the set but now dropped serve again to let Schwartzman take the lead.

    I know Diego is not an easy opponent, giving Rafa plenty of problems at MC and to Cilic at Istanbul. However, Djoko would still come through I think in the end; may lose a set or even two though.

    • They usually work, but he has played so poorly in the 2nd half of that set. Diego was good, but hardly on fire.

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