French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Basilashvili, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

Rafael Nadal is through to the French Open third round following two routine victories, and he will try to engineer more of the same against Nikoloz Basilashvili on Friday. Grigor Dimitrov and Pablo Carreno Busta are also in action.

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal’s 2016 French Open campaign ended abruptly prior to the third round, but that exit was beyond his control. Rather than losing, the nine-time champion was felled by a wrist injury that also kept him out of Wimbledon. Now, Nadal has once again produced straight-set beatdowns in each of his first two matches and will look to progress farther–much farther–in the draw than he did last year. The fourth-ranked Spaniard improved to 74-2 lifetime at Roland Garros and 19-1 on clay this season with a 6-1, 6-4, 6-1 victory over Benoit Paire and 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 rout of Robin Haase.

Up next for Nadal on Friday is a first-ever showdown against Basilashvili. The Georgian has already equaled his previous Grand Slam match win total in his entire career (two, both at Wimbledon in 2013) by beating Gilles Simon in four sets and Viktor Troicki in three straight tiebreakers. In his only other comparable major matchup, and only other one against anyone in the top 15, Basilashvili got blown out by Roger Federer 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 at the 2016 Australian Open. An improved world No. 63 should be slightly more competitive in this one, but he is also unlikely to close to stealing a set.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(20) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (11) Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov and Carreno Busta will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers at the ATP level on Friday. Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head series 2-1, avenging a 2014 Madrid loss by prevailing once in both 2015 (Paris Masters) and 2016 (Madrid). Although they have split their two previous clay-court encounters, the surface is obviously more advantageous to Carreno Busta. Five of his six career ATP finals and two of his three titles have come on the red stuff, a surface on which he has earned 19 of his 25 match victories in 2017. Carreno Busta booked his spot in the last 32 this fortnight with a straight-set blowout of Florian Mayer and a four-set win at the expense of Taro Daniel.

Although Dimitrov is not exactly a pushover on clay, he has to be satisfied already with a third-round performance at Roland Garros. After all, the 13th-ranked Bulgarian had previously been 3-6 lifetime at this tournament with three consecutive first-round exits. He brought a four-match French Open losing streak into this year’s event, a stretch that saw him go 2-12 in total sets. So far this week, however, Dimitrov has not dropped a single set or even been pushed to a tiebreaker while taking out Stephane Robert and Tommy Robredo. This time, though, he not facing opponent well past his prime. On the contrary, Carreno Busta playing the best tennis of his life and feels right at home on this particular surface.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 4

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64 Comments on French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Basilashvili, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

  1. I don’t remember how much time and effort Diego has already spent getting to this round. The would already be a fantastic win for Diego if it was BO3.

    Also I’m not sure Novak has his level of physical endurance. He’s maybe not making it better using up energy arguing with the ump.

    What was he so mad about? I missed it. Trying to follow 3 matches!

    • Oh yeah. Okay, thanks, Alison. He has been bouncing the balling up to 15-16 times. He bounces maybe 7 times and then restarts… He used to do it even worse before 2011. Sort of a relapse.

    • Ramos was already pissed off with ND and jumped at the opportunity to have a go at him. But goading a wounded animal is not a good idea.

  2. all this talk about the tv rule from the commies and especially petchey is doing my head in. just get rid of the rule for heaven’s sake.

  3. In the early days the endless bouncing before serving was excessive.I recall he frequently bounced up to 15+ times.

    • Three really good matches on at the same time and I have a channel for each one! Kuznetsova in a battle with Zhang. Sveta is my FO winner pick.

  4. Diego is done I think. At least he averted getting bageled.
    Djoko should make it to the semis. He is the most dangerous rival for Rafa on clay. Uncle T recognizes this. Hope they have prepared Rafa well.

    • Djoko still has two more players to deal with before the SF! Frankly, Djoko is not impressive at all but uses his fitness and stamina to grind his opponent down for a win. He playing like this, I’m not sure he won’t have problems with Pouille or ARV or Thiem.

  5. The problem with Diego is his court position behind the baseline! And, he’s unable to change it a bit during the match, doomed to fail. I mean how many times he fails to reach the drop shots in time to bring them over the net? Or, how often he hit into the net when hitting from a better court position closer to the baseline might help to avoid some of those.

    Djoko is going to run away with this final set as expected.

  6. Dreading the ritual ‘sharing his love’. Can understand indulging in the routine when he wins tournaments but imo it is inappropiate doing it after every match. This is R3 for goodness sake.

      • I’d completely forgotten he used to do that. And there was I hoping Agassi would stop him being so pretentious. He introduced the routine after he took on the Pseudo Guru. I commented a few days ago on the fact he seemed more composed since he linked up with AA.i but, as we saw by the outburst this afternoon, it was short-lived.

  7. Lucas Pouille – I picked him to win over ARV in my bracket because I was thinking about the crowd support. But Pouille hasn’t had the cc season ARV has had but Pouille loves the limelight.

    Ramos-Vinolas really should win this. If he can keep fighting under the pressure. This will at least go 4 sets.

    I see Nole won. And Sveta lost the 2nd set.

    • ARV has poor results after making final at MC. Pouille is also not playing well after reaching SF at MC.

      Pouille has more varieties in his game whilst ARV plays a typical clay court game; Pouille may do better than ARV when facing Djoko imo, as ARV’s rallying game will again play into Djoko’s hands. They won’t be winning against Djoko imo, just stretch him perhaps into four or five sets, before meeting Thiem most likely in the QF.

      Thiem is playing well so far, and if he’s able to beat Zeballios in straight sets, then I think he will have plenty of energy left to deal with Djoko if they meet in the QF. I expect the Thiem of Rome QF i/o Rome SF to appear should they really meet in the QF.

      • I guess Diego just got worn down. Novak gutted it out like I thought he would.

        That’s why it’s a tough ask to take out the top four in slams.

      • I think Nole will sail through the next 2 rounds and we will see the Rafa-Nole semi. I am really nervous about it because Nole has trained for years to beat Rafa on clay. However Rafa has had the edge at RG so far. Let us hope he will ruthlessly mow down Nole, dishing out bagels or breadsticks instead of going through the usual marathon.

  8. Heh heh…Strange…but i’m okay with Novak’s titting celebration..hehe..i think i’m the only one who’s okay with it…

        • Obviously concept of time in troll land is different. A Moment stretches and stretches….
          For your information MA loves trolls…Kavita, Stanley, you, rc….
          By the way I thought you had promised your fellow trolls you would ignore me?
          #PromisesMeanNothingToTrolls
          #QueenTrollisRedinToothAndClaw

          • amy has never initiated trolling anyone here in my experience.

            And your as wrong about her as I was about you being RITB. Deuce’s writing style and virtual personality are completely different. Not even close.

          • Mary you’re pretty much trolling by accusing people like rc of trolling. U trolled me one time by basically joking about how I wanted Stan to win only because I wanted roger to keep distance from Rafa in the slam count and not because I am a fan of Stan and his game. So you’re pretty much the only troll on here that I know of.

          • Now you are trolling because you do not know the history of rc and amy but you dare to accuse me of trolling. Kindly refrain from addressing me. I have no wish to interact with you.

      • Hey Joe!!…Give me five buddy!!…Yeah…i also don’t mind when he ate grass…or his spontaneus action on court…some say he’s an attention seeking..i also don’t mind that…for me…Novak is a natural very funny guy…he’s got the ability to make some usual thing to funny…i admire him a lot…whether as a tennis player or as a human being…

        • Right back at ya, Mira. Yes, I think Nole is very genuine, as is Rafa. Come to think of it, eating grass is not so different from chewing on a trophy.

  9. RT:Here are @RafaelNadal last 15 sets @rolandgarros : 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, 6-0, 6-1, 6-0….total: 90-24

    • Wow! Amazing! But before I get too excited at the return of the Rafa juggernaut, I have to remind myself that he hasn’t yet been really tested. If he bagels or breadsticks RBA then maybe…
      2008 was so amazing. Though Rafa was dominant in 2013 too, the Rafa of 2008 was so much more. He bageled Fed at RG and then went on to beat him at Wimbly in what will probably be considered the greatest match ever. Nothing seemed impossible for Rafa. What a year it was for Rafa fans!

    • That was an amazing performance and an absolute demolition job. I felt so bad for the other guy, but there wasn’t much he could do. Actually, he could and should have tried a few other tactics, but the result would have been the same.

      I will note, mostly for Mary’s pleasure, that Rafa graciously conceded a point on a wrong call -albeit when he was leading 6-0, 4-0.

      • Joe Smith, Rafa is always gracious. But I will be pleased if you object to favors shown to Fed. So let us wait till Wimbly.

      • Joe Smith says AT 9:41 PM: “…Rafa graciously conceded a point on a wrong call…”

        Rafa has always corrected umpires’ wrong calls when he has SEEN the ball mark and it has been possible to inspect the mark closely. As for ‘conceding a point’, the chair umpire makes the final decision on whether the point will be replayed or a player wins the point.

        In April, it was impossible for Rafa to see the ball mark at Goffin’s baseline (!) from a distance of 25 metres. The chair umpire decided that the point had to be replayed.

        • The umpire may make the final decision, but it’s not always based on his/her personal inspection, is it? Rafa inspected the mark, thought it was in, and effectively conceded the point: the umpire didn’t step down to have a look, if I remember correctly.

          Incidentally, in the last two months I’ve seen enough disputed ball marks -marks, not calls- to think that the incident with Goffin wasn’t that unusual. Or rather it was unusual only in how far out the ball was. I think Hawkeye would be better if only to eliminate those cases -even if it is slightly less accurate than the mark on clay.

          • The point is, Rafa can concede based on his inspection. He is not allowed to go to the opponent’s side to inspect. I remember vaguely some female tennis star, Martina Hingis I think, went to the opponent’s side to inspect a mark and there was some furor. Maybe she was disqualified or maybe just docked a point but I registered it was a strict no no.
            Even though on replay the ball looks out, those sitting on Rafa’s side couldn’t say whether it was in or out. In fact I am not even certain the TV replay showed it correctly. It wasn’t Hawkeye so I am not sure how credible it is.
            But Joe I appreciate your attempts to be fair. You can convince me totally by watching Fed like a hawk and complaining when he gets any unfair advantage.

          • I don’t know how far that ball is out, but it looks to be about one ball width; if so, I’m not surprised at all, since that sort of call is challenged all the time, by most players. And Federer is one of the worst at challenging calls, so I’m even less surprised.

    • On the women’s side I think there are more such victories. I just googled and found
      Steffi Graf won, 6–0, 6–0, in 34 minutes against Natasha Zvereva in the 1988 French Open final

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