French Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Carreno Busta

In his French Open fourth-round match against Karen Khachanov, Novak Djokovic hit a return off the frame that ricocheted into a linesperson’s face.

In the quarterfinals, Djokovic will go up against none other than Pablo Carreno Busta.

It is deja vu all over again for the world No. 1, who was infamously defaulted from the U.S. Open for accidentally hitting a lineswoman with a ball out of frustration while trailing Carreno Busta 6-5 in the opening set of their fourth-round contest.

Unsurprisingly, that marks the Spaniard’s lone “win” in the head-to-head series. Djokovic had won all three of their previous encounters, including two on clay. He prevailed 6-0, 6-1 at the 2014 Monte-Carlo Masters, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 at the same event in 2017, and 6-3, 6-4 at last year’s Cincinnati Masters.

Carreno Busta’s “win” also marks Djokovic’s lone “loss” of the season. The 33-year-old is otherwise sporting an undefeated 35-0 record, with titles at the Australian Open, Doha, Cincinnati, and Rome. So far at Roland-Garros he has not dropped a set while disposing of Mikael Ymer, Ricardas Berankis, Daniel Elahi Galan, and Karen Khachanov.

Although not exactly at the same level, Carreno Busta is also playing some of the best tennis of his career. The world No. 18 followed up Djokovic’s default by reaching the semifinals in New York and coming within one set of being a Grand Slam finalist. He is back in a slam quarterfinal for the fourth time in his career (second in Paris) following victories over John Millman, Guido Pella, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Daniel Altmaier.

“Everyone knows (what happened in New York,” Carreno Busta said. “But I think this is another match; another battle…. I think it was bad luck. This is a tough situation for him. I know that he didn’t want to do this. Sometimes (it) is better to forget it. I think Novak is a great player; a great person. Sometimes we cannot control our emotions. We have to do it. Sometimes (it) is not easy. (It was) a mistake.

“I don’t think [it will] come into my mind (on Wednesday), because (it) is something that normally never happens. Of course, I’m not thinking [that it] happens again. I (am) just thinking about doing my best, try to do a good match, have the opportunities to be close on the score.”

Just keeping it close would represent a strong effort, because no Djokovic has managed to do it so far this fortnight and few have even done it this whole season. The top seed quite literally has unfinished business with Carreno Busta and he will likely finish it in swift fashion.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Carreno Busta?

38 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Carreno Busta

  1. I think Carreno Busta has some say in the matter, he should’ve made the USO final and could’ve possibly won it if he did. Djokovic also sensed he was in a tough battle before being disqualified and PCB has improved since then.

    It’s easy to make predictions based on the probabilities and you only have to look at the bookmaker’s odds to know 3-0 is the most likely outcome but providing a narrative should give consideration all possible outcomes.

    I think If PCB continues to play well he could win a set and make things interesting but there is plenty of reason for Djokovivc to want a straight sets victory.

    Djokovic in 4

  2. Djoko in three or four sets, unless PCB suddenly turns unbeatable.

    Something interesting : Schwartzman beat Rafa at Rome and now they’re going to meet again in the SF; Rublev beat Tsitsipas at Hamburg and they’re going to face each other in the QF. Djoko lost the match by default, to PCB at the USO and now they’re going to meet in the QF. Time for revenge?

  3. Pablo was leading Djokovic 6-5 with a break in the first set which is why Djokovic hit the unfortunate ball in frustration. That match wasn’t going to be a walk in the park for Djokovic.

      • Who cares?!! There’s always something when things r not going his way! Just wait till he wins the second set and all the so called ailments just miraculously disappear! Steups!! That’s y i can never learn to like this guy!!

    • No Djoko won’t retire. He has now won the second set and has levelled the match. He’s going to win in four now.

      PCB, I don’t know whether he’s unwell or not but he’s not helping himself by always hitting CC to Djoko. Why engage in long rallies with Djoko if you’re unwell; might as well take more risk and tries to break the predictability of going CC all the time.

      This QF is the most boring of the four, I can see only CC rallies, no DTL shots, maybe only a few drop shots that’s about all.

      Tsitsipas, please do not let your opponent in the SF lull you into sleep should he continue to play like this. Please don’t fall into the trap, just put in your best efforts to beat your opponent no matter who he is.

  4. the likes of PCB and RBA (when playing at their best) are not easy match-ups for Novak. Nonetheless, it is evident something is wrong with him today. He seems very uncomfortable and kind of flat. Don’t see the usual energy

  5. Djoko has done a good job of being two sets to one up considering he is not feeling well physcially.. his aerve is the one bailing him out in most games.. the champion mentality.. I do not think he is faking.. even if he is and if the field plays worse because of that then it is a great strategy which is easy to emulate for other players too.

  6. Vmk1
    I take it you encourage fake injury as a licit strategy.
    He shouldn’t be too surprised that he’s not the people’s champion then, should he?
    And btw, he’s faking.
    Of course, he doesn’t do it all the time, sometimes he’s genuinely injured in which case he retires as one does when injured.

    • No i am saying that he is NOT faking.. even if he is at the top level of sport if the opponent faking makes you play worse then the problem lies with the opponent and not the faker.. i dont think any top athlete will fake and let a set go

      • I will never agree to someone being outplayed by shady tactics because it undermines everything sports represents.
        He can’t be seriously injured, otherwise he would be forced to stop so, if not faking he only lets the pain show when things don’t go his way, I suppose.

        • I humbly disagree shireling.. tennis players are always beat up as rafa himself said.. they manage pain when they play.. an injury need not be black and white where you are either 100% fit or cannot take the court at all.. there could be injuries where certain components of your game are compromised and in djokovics case it is apparent.. he is making a lot off errors off the shots that he is normally extremely solid.. he probably is very fortunate that he does not have an opponent who could take advantage of his injury

          • Very fair, thank you vmk1.

            If he starts out like that and is in pain out there, I can’t see him make past Tsitsipas.

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