French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

Rafael Nadal is 97-2 lifetime at Roland Garros. Jannik Sinner had never played a match there prior to this fortnight.

It will be mismatch in terms of both resumes and playing styles when Nadal and Sinner collide in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Given that the Italian has only been on the main tour for a little more than year, it comes as no surprise that this marks their first-ever head-to-head matchup.

Unfortunately for Sinner, this is not exactly the setting at which he would choose to face Nadal. The second-ranked Spaniard’s record at Roland Garros includes 12 titles and a current winning streak of 26 matches in a row. Although Nadal returned from the coronavirus hiatus with a loss to Diego Schwartzman in the Rome quarterfinals, he has picked up the pace in Paris with straight-set routs of Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, and Sebastian Korda.

“Obviously I’m playing against Rafa here in Roland Garros; it’s not the easiest thing, for sure,” Sinner said. “I mean, I think the record he has here…I think nobody can beat that. He is super confident here. So, you know, it’s going to be a difficult match for sure.

“(The goal is to) always to go on court with the right attitude, trying to play your best tennis–which I have to do if I want to play at the same level as he plays.”

Sinner’s own level has been outstanding, as he has surrendered just one set while producing the best result of his career. The 19-year-old disposed of David Goffin, Benjamin Bonzi, and Federico Coria in straight sets before ousting Alexander Zverev in four on Sunday. Sinner, who upset Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the Rome third round last month, will break into the top 50 even if he loses on Tuesday.

“He’s improving every single week,” Nadal noted. “So he’s playing better and better and better. It will be a big challenge. It will be the first time playing against him on the tour. I practiced with him a couple of times; he has an amazing potential.”

Sinner has the kind of game that can give the second seed problems. He stands at 6’2”, hits big serves and even bigger forehands, and wields a rock-solid two-hander off the backhand side. And he also moves extremely well for his size. Of course, Korda has a similar style–and he won only four games! Sure, Sinner is much further along than Korda right now; but Nadal’s dominance so far this fortnight does not bode well for the youngster. Expect flashes of brilliance from Sinner, but little sustained success.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11 games or fewer

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149 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

  1. Tough one to call since Rafa has crushed non-opponents thus far, he hasn’t even been challenged. So there’s not a whole lot to go on.

    I was very impressed with Sinner against Zverev, I think he can take a set here. The first one will probably be his best chance. I do wonder how he’ll deal with the high bounce, whether it’ll make it much harder than usual to hit those big groundstrokes flat. Also not sure if he would actually be able to go the distance if necessary. I feel like he’s mentally very steady for a 19 y/o, but physically? Zverev was able to wear him down a little bit, it’s pretty damn hard to consistently hit big off both wings for 4-5 sets.

  2. I hope some of you will be on site for tomorrow. It was really nice to have Mona to talk to for the Korda match! Hoping she and others will.be around as I am always super nervous when Rafa plays.
    I swear if he played a ball boy I would still have the heebie jeebies..
    It would help if we knew what time he was playing mind you…!

    • They’ve released the oop. Rafa is playing last with 4 matches before! So that could be on very late. Not sure if that affects anything…

  3. Haha! Mark Petchey has just said that if they meet in the semis Stefanos has no real chance of beating Nole. MP says Stefanos is too aggressive so will make too many ues and his first serve isn’t good enough!!!

    • Hello amy 😀 I am a big Sinner fan and he seems to be solid and improving by leaps and bounds, but I doubt he’ll get a set off of Rafa 😀
      I hope the young sinner man can hold his own for enough time to make me proud, but he won’t beat Rafa!! No worries, sister.

      About Nole vs PBC – that match-up worries me. Pablo has given Nole problems in the past. If Nole succeeds in making quick work of Pablo, I give him a good chance vs Tsitsipas. Oh… wait, I see Stefanos has to play Rublev first!! That one could be very good. Rublev is on a roll. There are no assurances on that side of the draw. Should be two exciting quarterfinals!!

      • I don’t give Busta any chance against Nole Elizabeth. Seriously! The only.thing I can see getting to Nole is if it is a dry and windy day. He does lose concentration in the wind but even so Busta won’t beat him.

      • What do you mean, Big Al? (hello, nice to read you, btw)

        Do you think Rublev is better on clay than Tsitsipas?

        If so, I agree. Always thought once Rubles grew up and got over his early injury issues he would be great on clay. He certainly is the best on clay of the Russian lot, I daresay.

        • Hi RC, I’m edging towards Rublev on that one . Just think he’ll be a bit tougher mentally .
          Not sure about who would be a tougher opponent for Nole.

          • I think the reason I picked Rublev as tougher opponent for Nole was that in slow conditions Tsitsi would find it hard to attack the net and make too many errors. But I’m not sure.Must check the H2Hs

      • I’m not sure about that. I mean, what does Rublev do better than Djokovic? It’s hard to think of anything. Whereas at least Tsitsipas is a bit more aggressive, he can come in behind his serve and use the angles to work Djokovic off the court. It seems unlikely that either would beat Djokovic, but I think Tsitsipas is probably the more dangerous opponent.

        • You might be right, about Tsitsipas, thinwhiteduke. I just watched more of Rublev recently and have been impressed.

          Actually, I think PCB is the toughest test of the three for Nole.

  4. Sinner will not live up to his name here and cause a huge upset.And PCB will not either .

    So,having jinxed it,anything is possible 😉

    As long as Nole keeps winning,Im happy

  5. Ive gone Nadal in 4 but I was actually worried I might be underestimating Sinner. Best prospect since Djokovic started on the tour IMO. Anything is possible.

  6. I think Tsitsipas has better chances Vs Djoko than Rublev does. Rublev is more one dimensional, and he struggled to put his opponent away in the fourth round. He could have lost another set had his opponent not being indecisive when having SP against Rublev.

    Rublev seems better on the hard courts as he could be aggressive charging to the net (and that’s how he beat Fed) but on clay he tends to stay at the baseline playing hard hitting tennis.

    Tsitsipas’ problem is that his level tends to fluctuate from set to set, so he tends to spend more energy on court than necessary. I think if he serves well and charges the net often to take time away from Djoko, he can beat Djoko.

    • That might be true but I think Rublev will beat Tsitsipas in 4 sets. Fucsovics was in super sharp form and Tsitisipas gave Dimitrov too many opportunities and was framing a lot of shots. That amount of opportunities will get eaten up by someone of Rublev’s quality right now.

      • Dimi was playing well by his current standard. Tsitsipas didn’t give Dimi much chances to beat him. Rublev otoh was giving his opponent many chances to win two sets, it’s his opponent who played poorly when having SPs and couldn’t convert them.

        • Oh Lucky, I missed the Tsitsipas/ Dimi match. And respect what you say. There is a good chance Rublev has gone past his best with his 4 and 5 set matches this tournament. Still, a pretty good showing for him this tournament.

          Either way, whoever wins, this should be a good QF!

    • Yes, Rublev doesn’t fluctuate as much as Tsitsi. Rublev has a steelier focus and will. But god, he did win hard-fought battles to get to this quarterfinal spot. They both are young enough to have fast recovery times: Stefanos and Andrey. Andrey’s clay-court positioning is improving nicely. He knows where he wants to be and had a lot of practice at it vs young Spaniard, Fokina Davidovich (4) sets, Sam Querrey (5) sets, and Fucsovics (4) sets. Forgetting who else he played, atm.

    • Lucky .I think tsitsipas will come very focussed if he has to meet djoko..he will try to make a statement just like he did against fed ao 19

  7. Worst possible match up in the worst of circumstances today.. night session against a player with dhbh and quick oon the court.. this match should be a clear indicator of rafas level.. vamos

  8. Terrible kit the teenager has to wear. Some of the men’s print shirts are clownish. Rafa has on a comfy pair of pajamas – much better than a wild shirt.The navy blue printed shirt Rublev wore the other day looked like one of my grandma’s “house dresses”

  9. Not a single bp on the sinner serve.. which is so odd for rafa on clay.. hope it is a case of rafa still figuring out his serve.. great time to break nwo though

    • Well I still enjoy watching Rafa and I don’t see him as horrible. I will be very surprised if Sinner holds time tho. Terrible shot selection by Sinner there.

  10. Rafa’s play been surprising. So passive with his groundstrokes. He looks far more nervous than Sinner!!

    Hope he breaks back somehow here.

  11. Phew!! Good to be a set up than a set down!! At least the soderling reference stopped. The commentators seem positively downcast after that set

  12. Sinner is still playing quite well.. good thing is rafa diego will be a day match if rafa gets thru.. but of course it will be moot if the roof is closed then

  13. Yeah Sinner losing badly in the TB shut then up. The sinner did okay first set playing Rafa. But it feels all Rafa now and I hope he makes it a swift, clean ending

    By now you are just chilling, right, amy?

  14. I tell you what, Rafa at his 85% plus would be winning handily against Sinner, even doling out some bakery products. This has been a subpar performance, he is down 1-3 now and I hope he can break back again.

  15. Rafa is really subpar, poor almost. Sinner obviously is not playing that well in the second set and Rafa let his chances of breaking slip away when he’s ahead in the game by playing some dumb shots to lose the game.

    Sinner’s BH is obviously his major weapon yet Rafa has to go there time and again! Rafa could have won the second set 6-2 by now instead of still trying to get back to 4-4!

  16. I think problem is Rafa’s BH. Its so short. And his DTL BH is also not crossing the high part of net. I think Rafa usually likes sun and hard clay to fire his BH well. Poor so far !

  17. Rafa is playing defensive tennis, just wanting Sinner to make errors. He has the habit of hitting the ball to the centre of the court when his opponent is there and then get caught without knowing which way his opponent is going to hit to. Djoko is fond of taking advantage of Rafa’s such bad habit.

  18. Wow, Rafa finally wins the second set not without struggles! Ok now plays with some confidence in the third set and finishes the job, it’s 50mins past midnight already local time.

    Sinner is a potentially great player on the clay court – moves well, hits big, serves well, knows how to move to the net, has good court craft imo. For a 19 year old, he truly has great potential, no wonder he won the Next Gen finals last year. His look – he looks a bit like Tomas Berdych.

  19. Has played the big points well. Set 2 was definitely better than set 1 I thought.

    He’ll get it done in 3 sets I think and that is what matters really.He can always raise his level and I am sure he will.

    • 76 64 61 maybe or a bagel 3rd set

      Nighty Nite amy!

      Congrats Rafa fans – I think Schwartzman can make it more interesting.

      No fun playing Rafa by the third set, says the quiet Italian teen.

      • I think he will play better against Diego jalep/ rc/ Elizabeth!
        He frequently has a match where he is very nervous and this was it…
        That’s why I was so nervous..!

  20. True, but Sinner was playing better in set one. I think after the MTO, he wasn’t playing that well in set two, and Rafa was a bit too relaxed after winning set one, and hence let slipped chances of breaking serves.

  21. I cant believe what Im reading from you guys!! Sinner is getting more props than Rafa but he is the one down 2 sets to love and love 3 down in third set. Are you guys kidding me?! Rafa did only what he needed to to win. He is 34 year old and he has the prospect of playing 2 freaking 5 setters to win the cup! Give him a damn break!! He’s winning!!! What more do you want?

      • Sinner played quite well in the first set and we all know Rafa is a slow starter.

        I think Rafa did pretty well to win in 3!!! Considering how everyone and their dog thought it would go to five or Rafa even losing! Sigh!!

  22. It’s the lack of match play. That gives Rafa confidence, rhythm and timing on his shots and mental toughness.

    Sinner playing Zverev was the first time I’ve seen him. He has potential, but there is still work to do. Rafa played better in the second set and is taking control in the third set. Considering that sone people predicted Rafa winning in four sets, Rafa has done well to do it in three.

    • Rafa needed to be pushed a bit. So far he’s been cruising. Conditions must have been against him? Starting the match after midnight, it’s cold, windy (well, that probably troubled Sinner more – Rafa does not like to play in the “windy” but he’s very good at it. Btw I hope “the windy” is one bit of Spanglish he never corrects.)

  23. Rafa is playing just his second tournament in what? 8 months? He is just not sharp enough, Moya himself said that his best tennis needs to be brought out of him.
    Nadal is not happy about his form, not happy about horrible court conditions, horrible scheduling and so on.

    This is an outdoor clay tournament on paper, but the conditions are far from normal. The ball doesn’t bounce and this is why Sinner got so far in the tournament and this game. This is also why natural clay courters are struggling; the second best (Thiem) is out already. BTW don’t compare Sinner with other Italians as he has a different set of genes and most likely very different background.

    Sinner looks like he doesn’t believe that he can win anymore so hopefully this ordeal is over soon.

    SF against Diego will be a totally different affair. Schwartzman cannot hit anywear near as hard as Sinner but will probably reach even more balls. Hopefully Rafa will enjoy that game much more than this one.

  24. Yeeesssss!!! Show ’em how it’s DONE, Rafa!!

    Phew, soooo glad Rafa got it done in 3 and grats to all of you who predicted that. (I opted for a conservative hopeful 4. So happy to have been wrong!)

  25. I was so nervous at the end of the first set. I couldn’t even post. Rafa pulled it out.

    What I really liked is that Rafa finished strong! He really dominated in the third set. He was feeling it.

    He is going to be in a battle with Diego. He got pushed enough by Sinner to raise his level of play. Rafa has two days off abd hopefully he will be ready to rumble on Friday!

    Rafa in the semis! 😍

  26. Sinner played well. Reminds me a bit of Soderling. Solid flat hitter and seems calm in the chaos at court.

    Rafa was Rafa , Found a way in the first set and then powered through with authority.

    The conditions look pretty bad out there though. Super wierd with the chilly temperatures and low bounce

    Go Rafa 🙂

  27. What never ceases to amaze me is that throughout Nadal’s career he’s always been second-guessed.
    I believe this hasn’t happened with any other great champion.
    Had sinner been playing Fed or Novak, do you think the press would be talking about a possible upset? I don’t think so.
    This match-up was just another example, some were even predicting an upset, that a 19 year old, no matter how good, would beat the 12 time RG champion in a best out of 5 match ….
    I’m reading things like, if Sinner hadn’t been nervous he would have won the first two sets, if , if, blabla.

  28. “Sinner is a very, very young talent with a lot of power, great shots,” said Nadal. “The conditions here were a little bit difficult because he was hitting every ball very hard, for me it was difficult. The ball, with this court, the spin is not there. For me, it was difficult to pull him out of the position.

    “I think in the third set, I did it much better and I finished being much more aggressive. That’s the only way. So, I’m just very happy to be in the semi-finals again in Roland Garros. No doubt it’s the most important place and, for me, the most beautiful place.

    Afterwards, Nadal was asked about the late finish. He said that the cold, windy conditions were particularly hazardous.

    “Of course, it is not an ideal finish, a match at 1.30 in the morning. But the problem is the weather … Honestly, it is very, very cold to play tennis, no? I know football players play under these conditions, but it is a little bit different. They are all the time moving. We stop, we come back, we stop on the changeovers. It is a sport that you are stopped in a lot of moments, no? I think it is a little bit dangerous for the body to play with these very heavy conditions.”

    http://www.theguardian.com

    • “Sinner is a very, very young talent” Sigh. Makes me miss the days when Rafa was a “very, very young talent”. One that makes Sinner pale in comparison. Maybe Sinner will be a great player one day. He’s got a lot of power, for sure and quick hands. We’ll have to see how he develops. I agree that if he’d met the real RG Rafa it would not have been as close as it was. I’m very happy that Rafa was pushed though. He needed that. And even happier it was over in 3 sets. Rafa did NOT need any extra sets!

      Anyway, who cares what anyone else thinks. Look at Rafa in the on court interview after the match. He was pumped! And very pleased with himself. Love to see him glowing.

  29. Sinner winning the first two sets? Thing is if not for the late start and conditions not suiting Rafa, Rafa would’ve won comfortably! Maybe giving out bagels or breadsticks!

    Rafa tends to make hard work out of his matches, when he has to play an opponent for the first time. It’s nothing new, we all know it and that’s why the worry. But, tbh, I predicted a straight sets win by Rafa, though each set might not be as easy as his first few rounds. But, Rafa was really subpar in set one, and so he lost his serve (but as usual, he managed to break back, esp against young and inexperienced opponents).

    I’ll never predict Rafa losing on clay to a young and inexperienced player, esp at RG where he’s the defending champion.

  30. They cant seem to resist bringing up Soderling beating Rafa, year after year, yet always fail to mention that he beat the exact same player in the final the following year *ROLLS EYES *, in straight sets, i always feel my teeth grinding grr ….

    • 😀😀 yeah and also uncanny how they stop short of insinuating who benefited the most from the soderling loss🤨.. the elephant in the room

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