French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta

June 5, 2017 Ricky Match previews 79

It will be an another all-Spanish affair for Rafael Nadal when he goes up against good friend Pablo Carreno Busta in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday.

Nadal clobbered countryman Roberto Bautista Agut during fourth-round action on Sunday to reach the quarters at Roland Garros for 11th time in his illustrious career. Carreno Busta took a much more circuitous route to what is his first-ever appearance in the last eight of a Grand Slam. The world No. 21 outlasted Milos Raonic 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-7(6), 6-4, 8-6 in a Sunday afternoon thriller in the Court 1 bull ring.

This marks the fourth meeting between the two compatriots and occasional doubles partners, with Nadal sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0. He is 6-1 in total sets following two straight-set victories on red clay in Rio de Janeiro (2015 and 2016) and a 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1 win on the hard courts of Doha last season.

Fast forward more than a year since their last encounter and Carreno Busta is a much different player now. The 25-year-old will likely surpass his career-high ranking of 18th next week and he could be in the top eight in the 2017 race to London after the French Open even if he loses to Nadal. Carreno Busta, who is 27-13 this season with a title in Estoril and a semifinal run in Indian Wells, preceded his triumph over Raonic with defeats of Florian Mayer, Taro Daniel, and Grigor Dimitrov.

Nadal has been predictably dominant so far this fortnight. Perfect on clay in 2017 aside from a Rome quarterfinal setback at the hands of a red-hot Dominic Thiem, the nine-time Roland Garros champion demolished Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, and Nikoloz Basilashvili before beating Bautista Agut. Nadal has dropped a grand total of 20 games through four matches.

“I am healthy and I am playing well,” the No. 4 seed assured. “That’s the only important thing for me. (I’m) very happy about the first week of competition, obviously.”

“If I think that I don’t have chances, I will not play,” Carreno Busta said. “So for sure I think I have chances. (It) is really difficult, because Rafa is maybe the best player [on] this surface [in] history, and he’s playing really [well]. But I will try. I’m playing [well], with a lot of confidence. Maybe I’m a little tired, but I have one day off.”

It does not matter, of course, if Carreno Busta has one day or one hundred days off following the biggest win of his career. Nadal is well-rested following a quartet of beatdowns and in nothing short of ruthless form. He has not lost more than four games in any set in six consecutive matches at Roland Garros dating back to last spring. That trend should continue against an opponent who is playing incredibly solid tennis but does not have the firepower with which to seriously trouble Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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38 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta

  3. PCB another player with a game unlikely to trouble Nadal, who may not face a big hitter until the final (if then). I would have given Raonic a better shot.

    Pablo’s best hope to keep it close is if Nadal doesn’t serve well (against RBA he hit only 41% first serves in 1st set, winning only 50% of those points). It’s the one part of Nadal’s game that hasn’t been rock solid in this tournament, but it’s a pretty important part. Still, it’s likely to take PCB only so far. Rafa in 3, one close set.

    Reply

    • But..,did you see how much Rafa won on his second serve? He even won a higher % of second serve points than on his first serve! And he was consistently doing so for all four of his matches here, it’s quite amazing.

      My guess is, he’s rushing through his first serve for fear of TV warnings, but he’s more steady serving his second serves.

      Reply

      • I didn’t know that. It’s quite odd to win a higher % of points on 2nd serve than first; hard to know why that might be. You might be right that there is some nervousness about tv warnings, but I also think Rafa is just going for more on his 1st serve than he was a few months ago.

        In fact, his whole game has become more aggressive. If I may say so, he’s adopted the strategy that I suggested he should after Miami, going for winners earlier and trying to shorten points. His play lately has been more of an attacking player than it has a counter-puncher. That may be related, of course, to not facing big hitters.

        Reply

        • I’ve said it before, even before the clay season, that Rafa was playing shorter points these days. Even on clay, he has been doing so, he probably recognizes that as he grows older, he won’t be able to play too many long points or rallies without zapping his energy, unlike when he was younger.

          I do feel Rafa seems rushed during his first serves, and so I think Moya and Toni may have thought of beefing up his second serves, so as to compensate for some missed first serves because of the time limit issue.

          It’s obvious (as Vamosrafa had noticed it too), that Rafa’s second serves have improved, so its not as simple as Rafa going for more on his first serves thus missing some, that as a result he gets his second serve points % > his first serve points %.

          Reply

          • Moya has always wanted Rafa to be more aggressive in matches. Serve harder, go for more winners. It’s in Rafa’s book. The difference here is mainly in his vastly improved second serve, I think. Not worrying about having to defend his 2nd serve allows him to be freer on the first. Also he’s been moving the serve around much more than he used to.

          • Yep, improving his second serve may free Rafa’s worries, about his second serves being attacked so readily once he failed on his first deliveries. At the same time, he can go for more on his first serves without worrying about his second serves.

            Even when Carlos Ramos took away one of Rafa’s first serve for his TV offense, Rafa could serve a good enough second serve and still won the point! What an encouraging improvement from Rafa!

          • I was calling for marked improvements in his second serves since the AO! I could see some improvements even in Australia, He has kept improving and now the second serve is formidable. He has won 77 % points behind his second serve so far as compared to 72% on his first serve. Ridiculous stat! 77% on second serves on clay is unheard of even against the likes of players he has faced.

            The tournament average for winning second serve points is between 50-51% !

          • ah you’ve mentioned me already Luckystar, lol. Just read your post. Yup, you too have been right about Rafa keeping points shorter this time around even on clay. In the past he was content to rally on clay and dominate longer points. This year he is doing so well winning the shorter points as well.

            I feel the balance of his game is perfect at the moment. As long as he can hit his first serve well enough, he will have enough chances to beat anyone. It would be a pretty big upset if Rafa loses to anyone.

            Stan is really playing himself into form now! Danger!

  5. Rafa will cruise through this one. One set could be 6-4 ish but I am expecting breadsticks and croissants otherwise.

    Reply

  6. RT: Rafael Nadal at the 2017 French Open:

    ? 6-1
    ? 6-4
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-4
    ? 6-3
    ? 6-0
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-0
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-2
    ? 6-2

    ?

    #NextGOAT
    #PendingLaDecima
    #NoleIsBack

    Reply

  10. PCB made great run at this FO! Beating Dimitrov and Raonic back to back is true accomplishment. He is playing well. But his next opponent is the God of Clay! The sooner he realizes that Rafa is just playing divine tennis atm, the sooner he will be able to accept the fact that taking one or two games per set is not bad at all…

    The weather forecast is worrisome though..don’t like heavy balls and wet conditions to neutralize Rafa’s top spins…it will mean Rafa staying longer on the court…I want him to finish fast and conserves energy for the tough competition ahead…

    Vamos Champ!

    Reply

  14. My prediction is that Rafa will win a higher percentage of points behind his second serve than he does behind his first. He has bizazarely done this in every match at Rolland garros so far this year. This seems incredible to me and I wonder if any Rafa fans/ tennis experts out there have a tactical insight into why this is? I can’t figure it out!

    Reply

    • I don’t think that’s a sound prediction, Ad. The reason is that it’s highly unlikely that the observed disparity has anything to do with the comparative quality of Nadal’s 1st vs. 2nd serves: it’s not like the 2nd serve is better than the 1st -when both go in. It just means that the rest of Rafa’s game is better -for some totally bizarre reason- after he hits his 2nd serve.

      His team is obviously aware of the unusual stat. If they thought that everything else about his game were the same after 1st vs. 2nd serves, then the rational thing to do would be to have him hit only 2nd serves, which he can hit in about 99% of the time. Obviously, he’s not going to start doing that. Which means the stat is a fluke, nothing more. Rafa’s 2nd serve has been very good, and it’s not a liability, which it sometimes has been in the past. But it’s hardly a weapon, and nothing to get too excited about, imo.

      Reply

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