French Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this spring when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the French Open on Tuesday.

Djokovic is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0–including 11-1 in total sets–after destroying Thiem 6-1, 6-0 in the recent Rome semifinals. Dating back to their round-robin clash at the 2016 World Tour Finals, Djokovic has won their last four sets 6-0, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0. This stretch follows Thiem’s lone successful set, which he took 7-6(10) last fall at the O2 Arena in London before getting clobbered in the next two. This is also a rematch of last year’s Roland Garros semifinals, in which Djokovic dominated 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 on his way to lifting the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the first time in his career.

The Serb’s 2016 success in Paris came as no surprise, because he dominated the entire first half of the season before a third-round Wimbledon loss to Sam Querrey touched off a prolonged slump that still may not be over. The 2017 campaign, on the other hand, has been a struggle. Djokovic is a relatively modest 24-6 with no titles since January 7 (Doha), and he followed up his Rome win over Thiem by losing to Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-3 in the final. So far this fortnight he has defeated Marcel Granollers, Joao Sousa, Diego Schwartzman, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas, needing five sets to get past Schwartzman in addition to a trio of straight-set victories.

Thiem is an awesome 21-4 on the slow stuff this year, which is the biggest–and basically only–reason why he is No. 3 in the race to London. The seventh-ranked Austrian won Rio de Janeiro and reached finals in Barcelona and Madrid. He has been the most dominant player other than Nadal through four rounds, having blown out Bernard Tomic, Simone Bolelli, Steve Johnson, and Horacio Zeballos.

Speaking of Nadal, his lone clay-court loss came against Thiem in the Rome in quarterfinals. The Spaniard was physically spent by that point and the story was the same for Thiem when he took the court against Djokovic one day later, managing all of one game.

“It was a combination of everything,” the 23-year-old said of his recent loss to the world No. 2. “I played finals in Madrid before and then already in the first two matches of Rome I felt that somehow I’m getting more and more empty. Then against Rafa, I played with the last percents. It was amazing match, and the next day I was just done.”

“I don’t think it’s gonna play too big of a role,” Djokovic said of his perfect record against Thiem. “I think he really will step it up and try to do something special. I’m sure he’s going to be as motivated as ever, so I expect him to come out and really play his best. I’m going to be ready for that. I obviously played him last year semis here, played a really good match, (and) played an incredible match against him in Rome. But it’s different conditions. It’s best of five. It’s a Grand Slam.”

None of those last two factors help Thiem. The underdog’s talent level and current form are such that he is more than capable of winning this match, but his past struggles against Djokovic and relative inexperience–at least compared to his opponent–in the business end of slams could be his undoing.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

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