Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this spring when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the French Open on Tuesday.
Djokovic is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0–including 11-1 in total sets–after destroying Thiem 6-1, 6-0 in the recent Rome semifinals. Dating back to their round-robin clash at the 2016 World Tour Finals, Djokovic has won their last four sets 6-0, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0. This stretch follows Thiem’s lone successful set, which he took 7-6(10) last fall at the O2 Arena in London before getting clobbered in the next two. This is also a rematch of last year’s Roland Garros semifinals, in which Djokovic dominated 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 on his way to lifting the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the first time in his career.
The Serb’s 2016 success in Paris came as no surprise, because he dominated the entire first half of the season before a third-round Wimbledon loss to Sam Querrey touched off a prolonged slump that still may not be over. The 2017 campaign, on the other hand, has been a struggle. Djokovic is a relatively modest 24-6 with no titles since January 7 (Doha), and he followed up his Rome win over Thiem by losing to Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-3 in the final. So far this fortnight he has defeated Marcel Granollers, Joao Sousa, Diego Schwartzman, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas, needing five sets to get past Schwartzman in addition to a trio of straight-set victories.
Thiem is an awesome 21-4 on the slow stuff this year, which is the biggest–and basically only–reason why he is No. 3 in the race to London. The seventh-ranked Austrian won Rio de Janeiro and reached finals in Barcelona and Madrid. He has been the most dominant player other than Nadal through four rounds, having blown out Bernard Tomic, Simone Bolelli, Steve Johnson, and Horacio Zeballos.
Speaking of Nadal, his lone clay-court loss came against Thiem in the Rome in quarterfinals. The Spaniard was physically spent by that point and the story was the same for Thiem when he took the court against Djokovic one day later, managing all of one game.
“It was a combination of everything,” the 23-year-old said of his recent loss to the world No. 2. “I played finals in Madrid before and then already in the first two matches of Rome I felt that somehow I’m getting more and more empty. Then against Rafa, I played with the last percents. It was amazing match, and the next day I was just done.”
“I don’t think it’s gonna play too big of a role,” Djokovic said of his perfect record against Thiem. “I think he really will step it up and try to do something special. I’m sure he’s going to be as motivated as ever, so I expect him to come out and really play his best. I’m going to be ready for that. I obviously played him last year semis here, played a really good match, (and) played an incredible match against him in Rome. But it’s different conditions. It’s best of five. It’s a Grand Slam.”
None of those last two factors help Thiem. The underdog’s talent level and current form are such that he is more than capable of winning this match, but his past struggles against Djokovic and relative inexperience–at least compared to his opponent–in the business end of slams could be his undoing.
Pick: Djokovic in 5
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who ya got?
Thiem in 5
i like the boldness!
Hi Ricky, Thanks for this wonderful blog. I always read your prediction (and also with Benny) to get some insights. cheers.. Thanks again. 🙂
Thiem
I don’t think this match will go 5 sets. If Novak is on, he will win in 4 or even 3. If he’s not, Thiem in 4. It all depends on which version of Novak shows up. I’m thinking he will want to conserve energy for a likely SF with Rafa.
fair points
Novak in 4. Its a bad match up for Theim. Djokivic has already had a scare from Schwartzman and made adjustments to his game.
Novak has or over his mentally based on pervious results (5:0)
Djokivic 3:1
Djokovic d. Thiem 6-3 , 6-2 , 4-6 , 6-1.
Theim in 5 winning with the last set 6-4. Match to last around 4.30 hrs.
Rafa would prefer to play Djokovic, so Theim winning is not great news.
Well in terms of form, it’s certainly in favour of Thiem. He’s had a solid clay-court season, and has looked strong in all his RG matches so far. He has played as well as anyone not called ‘Nadal’. Novak has been steadily building, and Agassi in his corner will help, although I don’t feel he was very convincing against Ramos Viñolas. I mean, compare the way Nadal crushed Agut with the way that Djoko played against RV, an easier opponent. If RV had been able to grab that first set I actually feel he could’ve pushed Djoko to five like Schwartzman did. In the end he couldn’t though, and he seemed to lose some belief after the first set tie-break. Djokovic’s confidence rose as the match went on, and he finished pretty strongly.
The concerning thing for Thiem fans is that Thiem-Djokovic H2H record. Five to zip, including the recent Rome beatdown. To some extent you can write that off, since he was really tired, but the overall H2H is still a worry, and it’ll give Novak confidence. That being said, I don’t think Thiem will be too affected by it, he won’t go in as favourite, and I think he’ll really believe he can win. He got beaten by Rafa a couple of times before and then overcame him in straight sets in Rome (albeit Nadal was tired), so he’ll know this match, though BO5 is a different ballgame, is very winnable. Novak, on the other hand, can get this done, but assuming Thiem’s level does not suddenly drop in the face of a tough opponent (very unlikely), I think he’ll have to raise his level. I am not confident that he can.
Thiem in 4.
Well, I didn’t quite pick it, because I thought Novak would get a set. He was pretty close though, had two set points on Thiem’s serve late in that first set. After that, he didn’t really look like he was going to bounce back any stronger, Thiem was making all the play in the 2nd and 3rd sets. Third set from Djokovic wasn’t Tomic-like, but it was pretty damn poor.
Next up comes a much bigger test, a fresh and in-form King of Clay.
You picked it pretty well, Duke, with your analysis above. Any take on the next round?
Didn’t see Rafa’s match today, but it looks like it was going as expected until PCB retired. Probably would’ve been better for Rafa to have to play three dominant sets, just for continuity and to get a nice pre-Thiem workout. That said, much better to have a retirement than five tough sets. Rafa’s fresh and his form is as good as it has been in a while.
I didn’t see Thiem beat Rafa in Rome, so it’s hard for me to say if that match has much significance. Given Rafa would’ve been quite tired from so much play, I won’t be reading too much into it. It can’t hurt Thiem though, because he’ll know he *can* beat Rafa, even if the FO is a whole other ball-game. The risk for Thiem is that he has a bit of a let-down – a bit like he did in Rome against Djokovic, except it would be in reverse order this time. Beating two big four players in a row is a big ask mentally, as you said elsewhere, he may not be able to replicate today’s performance. If he can’t, he will probably get wiped almost as badly as Rafa’s opponents so far. But I think Thiem’s level today wasn’t much different to his other matches, most of which I have watched, so he should bring a similar standard against Nadal.
Will that be enough? Well, good as Djokovic is, Rafa has been in *much* better form than him this tournament, he hasn’t even been pushed. If Thiem were to win the first set, I’m confident the others would be just as tough, if not tougher. Rafa won’t collapse like Djokovic did today if he has a slow start, even if Thiem has all guns blazing. I think the Austrian stands a chance, and he should have the fitness, but I can’t go past Nadal in this form, I think he’ll probably be just a little too good on the big points.
Rafa in 4.
Djokovic in 3 and loses to Rafa in the semis
Its not for nothing that Novak is leading 5-0 in H2H.Thiems game fits Djokovic a very, very well because this boy from Austria is infact a one-dimensional ball basher despite all of your exaggeration here about Thiem and his game.
Novak- Thiem 3-1.
Djoker is a freaking lock.
Lol!
Thiem is a ball basher but a rather good one on clay! He’s looking awesome here, and looks like he still has plenty in the tank so I doubt he will play like his Rome SF. I won’t be surprised he will be all guns blazing this time, playing something close to that Rome QF level which I think will give Djoko plenty of problems. I also doubt Djoko could play like that Rome SF to win, as this is a BO5 match and there will be ups and downs during the match, so Thiem will have his chances.
The Thiem of 2017 is a much improved version of that 2016 version;
Bad matchup for Thiem.
Djoko in three.
#NoleIsBack
#NID
#HawkstradamusRisen
It’s doubtful to me that Novak will lose to Thiem at this point – QF in GS. Maybe Thiem can prove me wrong. I’d be happy to see Thiem win but will have to see it to believe it.
Also very happy with how Andy played vs Khachanov.
Ch Ch Ch Changes….and maybe not….Joker in 3.
Djokovic had a few rounds where he didn’t dominate the opponent/playing not to his potential and everyone is off his bandwagon. However when Nadal was in a long slump everyone here still stood by him every time.
Djoker in four
Nole may lose a set but won’t lose this match! Thiem is not the one who could trouble Nole, he never even came close to beating Nole. He will be thinking of that last loss to Nole, it will be in his head and won’t be able to produce his best tennis. When I come to think of it PCB beat tougher and more quality opponents than Thiem to reach the quarterfinals…with Goffin getting injured Thiem’s draw became way too easy…
Nole in 4
Definitely
Djokovic is a bad matchup for Thiem. How? Djokovic is able to rush Thiem consistently. He stays close to the baseline and takes time away from Theim who likes to take his time and prefers a bit of deeper court positioning.
Can thiem beat djokovic or make this really competitive? Yes, but he needs to get the tactics right. He has been tactically BAD in the past. He goes for pace too much and lets djokovic use that to rush him even more!
Thiem is playing great and and if he plays the right way, he will surely make this very competitive.
VR, Thiem is a poorer version of Stan. If Thiem is able to play the way Stan does vs Djoko, he will have his chances. However, his chances will be slim, but then, Stan did beat Djoko a few times despite their lopsided H2H in Djoko’s favor (and Stan even beat Djoko in 2015, Djoko’s best year!); the Djoko right now is still vulnerable, if Schwartzman could push Djoko to five sets, I doubt Thiem couldn’t.
Schwartzman too play from deep behind the baseline, hits very hard too. Djoko may enjoy rallies and pace, but if you can hit hard and push him behind the baseline, you can win the point; and that’s how hard hitters beat him – Stan, Delpo, A Zverev for examples. Thiem and his team have to learn from their mistakes and come out with a proper game plan vs Djoko. I give Thiem about 30% chances, or maybe 40%, of winning this match, on the basis that Thiem is physically fresher than Djoko, playing better too at this point, and maybe have learned a lesson or two from that sound beating suffered in Rome.
Thiem in 4! I sense he will pull a wawrinka on Nole
Let’s go Novak win this in 3! Although I think Novak in 4 is also probable. Cmon Nole!