French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta

June 5, 2017 Ricky Match previews 79

It will be an another all-Spanish affair for Rafael Nadal when he goes up against good friend Pablo Carreno Busta in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday.

Nadal clobbered countryman Roberto Bautista Agut during fourth-round action on Sunday to reach the quarters at Roland Garros for 11th time in his illustrious career. Carreno Busta took a much more circuitous route to what is his first-ever appearance in the last eight of a Grand Slam. The world No. 21 outlasted Milos Raonic 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-7(6), 6-4, 8-6 in a Sunday afternoon thriller in the Court 1 bull ring.

This marks the fourth meeting between the two compatriots and occasional doubles partners, with Nadal sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0. He is 6-1 in total sets following two straight-set victories on red clay in Rio de Janeiro (2015 and 2016) and a 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1 win on the hard courts of Doha last season.

Fast forward more than a year since their last encounter and Carreno Busta is a much different player now. The 25-year-old will likely surpass his career-high ranking of 18th next week and he could be in the top eight in the 2017 race to London after the French Open even if he loses to Nadal. Carreno Busta, who is 27-13 this season with a title in Estoril and a semifinal run in Indian Wells, preceded his triumph over Raonic with defeats of Florian Mayer, Taro Daniel, and Grigor Dimitrov.

Nadal has been predictably dominant so far this fortnight. Perfect on clay in 2017 aside from a Rome quarterfinal setback at the hands of a red-hot Dominic Thiem, the nine-time Roland Garros champion demolished Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, and Nikoloz Basilashvili before beating Bautista Agut. Nadal has dropped a grand total of 20 games through four matches.

“I am healthy and I am playing well,” the No. 4 seed assured. “That’s the only important thing for me. (I’m) very happy about the first week of competition, obviously.”

“If I think that I don’t have chances, I will not play,” Carreno Busta said. “So for sure I think I have chances. (It) is really difficult, because Rafa is maybe the best player [on] this surface [in] history, and he’s playing really [well]. But I will try. I’m playing [well], with a lot of confidence. Maybe I’m a little tired, but I have one day off.”

It does not matter, of course, if Carreno Busta has one day or one hundred days off following the biggest win of his career. Nadal is well-rested following a quartet of beatdowns and in nothing short of ruthless form. He has not lost more than four games in any set in six consecutive matches at Roland Garros dating back to last spring. That trend should continue against an opponent who is playing incredibly solid tennis but does not have the firepower with which to seriously trouble Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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79 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta

  3. PCB another player with a game unlikely to trouble Nadal, who may not face a big hitter until the final (if then). I would have given Raonic a better shot.

    Pablo’s best hope to keep it close is if Nadal doesn’t serve well (against RBA he hit only 41% first serves in 1st set, winning only 50% of those points). It’s the one part of Nadal’s game that hasn’t been rock solid in this tournament, but it’s a pretty important part. Still, it’s likely to take PCB only so far. Rafa in 3, one close set.

    Reply

    • But..,did you see how much Rafa won on his second serve? He even won a higher % of second serve points than on his first serve! And he was consistently doing so for all four of his matches here, it’s quite amazing.

      My guess is, he’s rushing through his first serve for fear of TV warnings, but he’s more steady serving his second serves.

      Reply

      • I didn’t know that. It’s quite odd to win a higher % of points on 2nd serve than first; hard to know why that might be. You might be right that there is some nervousness about tv warnings, but I also think Rafa is just going for more on his 1st serve than he was a few months ago.

        In fact, his whole game has become more aggressive. If I may say so, he’s adopted the strategy that I suggested he should after Miami, going for winners earlier and trying to shorten points. His play lately has been more of an attacking player than it has a counter-puncher. That may be related, of course, to not facing big hitters.

        Reply

        • I’ve said it before, even before the clay season, that Rafa was playing shorter points these days. Even on clay, he has been doing so, he probably recognizes that as he grows older, he won’t be able to play too many long points or rallies without zapping his energy, unlike when he was younger.

          I do feel Rafa seems rushed during his first serves, and so I think Moya and Toni may have thought of beefing up his second serves, so as to compensate for some missed first serves because of the time limit issue.

          It’s obvious (as Vamosrafa had noticed it too), that Rafa’s second serves have improved, so its not as simple as Rafa going for more on his first serves thus missing some, that as a result he gets his second serve points % > his first serve points %.

          Reply

          • Moya has always wanted Rafa to be more aggressive in matches. Serve harder, go for more winners. It’s in Rafa’s book. The difference here is mainly in his vastly improved second serve, I think. Not worrying about having to defend his 2nd serve allows him to be freer on the first. Also he’s been moving the serve around much more than he used to.

          • Yep, improving his second serve may free Rafa’s worries, about his second serves being attacked so readily once he failed on his first deliveries. At the same time, he can go for more on his first serves without worrying about his second serves.

            Even when Carlos Ramos took away one of Rafa’s first serve for his TV offense, Rafa could serve a good enough second serve and still won the point! What an encouraging improvement from Rafa!

          • I was calling for marked improvements in his second serves since the AO! I could see some improvements even in Australia, He has kept improving and now the second serve is formidable. He has won 77 % points behind his second serve so far as compared to 72% on his first serve. Ridiculous stat! 77% on second serves on clay is unheard of even against the likes of players he has faced.

            The tournament average for winning second serve points is between 50-51% !

          • ah you’ve mentioned me already Luckystar, lol. Just read your post. Yup, you too have been right about Rafa keeping points shorter this time around even on clay. In the past he was content to rally on clay and dominate longer points. This year he is doing so well winning the shorter points as well.

            I feel the balance of his game is perfect at the moment. As long as he can hit his first serve well enough, he will have enough chances to beat anyone. It would be a pretty big upset if Rafa loses to anyone.

            Stan is really playing himself into form now! Danger!

  5. Rafa will cruise through this one. One set could be 6-4 ish but I am expecting breadsticks and croissants otherwise.

    Reply

  6. RT: Rafael Nadal at the 2017 French Open:

    ? 6-1
    ? 6-4
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-4
    ? 6-3
    ? 6-0
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-0
    ? 6-1
    ? 6-2
    ? 6-2

    ?

    #NextGOAT
    #PendingLaDecima
    #NoleIsBack

    Reply

  10. PCB made great run at this FO! Beating Dimitrov and Raonic back to back is true accomplishment. He is playing well. But his next opponent is the God of Clay! The sooner he realizes that Rafa is just playing divine tennis atm, the sooner he will be able to accept the fact that taking one or two games per set is not bad at all…

    The weather forecast is worrisome though..don’t like heavy balls and wet conditions to neutralize Rafa’s top spins…it will mean Rafa staying longer on the court…I want him to finish fast and conserves energy for the tough competition ahead…

    Vamos Champ!

    Reply

  14. My prediction is that Rafa will win a higher percentage of points behind his second serve than he does behind his first. He has bizazarely done this in every match at Rolland garros so far this year. This seems incredible to me and I wonder if any Rafa fans/ tennis experts out there have a tactical insight into why this is? I can’t figure it out!

    Reply

    • I don’t think that’s a sound prediction, Ad. The reason is that it’s highly unlikely that the observed disparity has anything to do with the comparative quality of Nadal’s 1st vs. 2nd serves: it’s not like the 2nd serve is better than the 1st -when both go in. It just means that the rest of Rafa’s game is better -for some totally bizarre reason- after he hits his 2nd serve.

      His team is obviously aware of the unusual stat. If they thought that everything else about his game were the same after 1st vs. 2nd serves, then the rational thing to do would be to have him hit only 2nd serves, which he can hit in about 99% of the time. Obviously, he’s not going to start doing that. Which means the stat is a fluke, nothing more. Rafa’s 2nd serve has been very good, and it’s not a liability, which it sometimes has been in the past. But it’s hardly a weapon, and nothing to get too excited about, imo.

      Reply

  22. I’ve been right every time about Rafa in 3. And this one will be won efficiently again. Maybe the same or one game more than Haase got.

    Reply

        • rc…i’ve been right about Rafa too…but,what’s your rough prediction if Rafa do meet with Novak in semis?

          Reply

          • Wow, to be honest, MA, Rafa vs Nole makes me nervous. As much as I love Nole it will be terrible if Rafa doesn’t get La Decima. And I’m more emotionally invested in La Decima than I ever would have thought!

            I don’t want anyone to stop Rafa from winning this year. And it’s not a good feeling for someone like me that prefers to remain neutral. It was very uncomfortable last year when I was worried that Nole would lose his chance at the FO title again.

            To me it would be best if Thiem beat Nole. Andy Murray is beginning to worry me as well. It’s not a good time for Nole, Andy, and I guess Stan too — to be back too much.

            It’s best to drop the subject, hey??!!

          • rc….hahahaha…afraid?…don’t be rc!…we’re already been labeled troll!what more scary than that?hahaha…For me,it’s very simple…all fair and square in sport..If Rafa do win his La Decima[which is all Rafans wish]…it’s going to be amazing..but,if it’s not..that means,it is not meant for rafa to win…maybe,it’s for other’s..Novak,Andy or Stan…Imo,the match with Novak[very likely] will be the key for Rafa…if he passed that,then the chance is very high…

          • Well, you have a healthy attitude, imo. Usually I’m not a big fan of the embarrassment of riches. To me winning FO 9 times is OTT! Nobody needs that many FO’s. Nobody needs 18 – 20- 23 GS — it all gets cheesy. There should be a limit!

            But here I am: nervous again. This time probably feeding off of the many Rafa fans that I like and some I love, like you, MA. And the hype: I want it for Rafa if he wants it but – it’s not essential by any means.

  23. rc!…..You’re a VERY VERY BEAUTIFUL HUMAN BEING…INSIDE AND OUTSIDE!!…Don’t be afraid to say what u want…we’re already ‘knew’ u okay?I can’t wait to see the awesome display between them on friday…It’s going to be a match full of amazing gets,winners from both player’s…that’s what so special about them…May the best man win!!Wooohooo!!!

    Reply

  24. Hello RC and MA loving your discussion, anyway to add as much as i love Rafa and would like him to win another FO, i can also understand it when people yearn for someone new have their turn, and he certainly doesnt have a god given right to it, i would have no problem someone new won it, or if Novak won it again, its just the rabid TX loonies that i cant stomach, the nice ones are either missing or here on TG 🙂

    Reply

    • Hey Al!!…Yeah agree!!…U,rc,Nny and many other’s have a very very beautiful attitude regarding this…thank u so much for the understanding and zero animosity that u guys displayed towards another player’s…if Rafa can play fair and square..why can’t we?Right Al??

      Reply

  28. This is NOT good for Rafa! he has not been tested at all and this match was nothing but a rhythm buster. I hope Rafa doesn’t lose momentum and is ready for the semi.

    I’d be nervous esp if it’s Djokovic.

    Reply

    • Indeed. However, Rafa will at least be well rested unlike his time at the AO. Rafa is playing well, he doesn’t need match play, he needs to be fresh, so I guess this is not that bad!
      And we get to watch other quarterfina match now..,

      Reply

    • agree with vr!! am very worried about the lack of match play he will have now. if nole comes into the semis he will be battle hardened. remember how in rg 11 the lack of matches disrupted nole before the fed semi….

      Reply

  30. How did Rafa plan in the set? Looks like Terrible numbers from the stat. Broken twice, 37% first serve points won.

    Reply

    • His serve has not been great in the last few matches. 2nd serve has, but not the first, which is the one that really matters against quality opponents.

      Reply

    • MA,

      You are reading my mind! You know how I think!

      Thanks for posting this! It’s reassuring to read Rafa’s words!

      Now I feel better! Rafa knows what he has to do to beat Thiem. Make him uncomfortable!

      You go Rafa!
      ?

      Reply

    • Thanks for the link, MA! I really felt for PCB. And I thought about Rafa playing Cincy and the USO thru the semis with that same injury. How tough IS he? Or how crazy? And I remember him describing the injury at the time, “I had a little bit strain, then a little bit tear, then a little bit rupture”. “The serve out wide, it kill me.” Like that overhead “killed” PCB? I think PCB did the right thing. He couldn’t win, he could have made the injury worse. Still, Rafa awes me. His determination, his respect for what he does.

      Reply

  32. Nny & Ramara!…https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/57/d4/9d/57d49d6a2b5d0960fb637458606f361a.gif

    I know u guys r worried sick at the mo’…but,if i can give u guys a reason not to?How’s that??
    1]..Remember last year how Rafa was sooooo devastated because he had to pulled out from FO?He cried in the locker room after that…at that time,i remembered he said he’s going to play for the rest of the tourney if it’s not for his doctor advised him to pulled out because it will damage his wrist even further[that’s how crazy he is Ramara!]…so,my first reason why i think he’s going to win not only against Thiem but against Andy?or maybe Stan as well…Rafa in the current state and form WILL NOT LET ANYTHING COME BETWEEN HIM AND HIS 10TH…he’s here..in great condition,physical and form [bar an injury that is]….

    2]…IMO..Rafa will do anything in his power to give a La Decima to Uncle Toni as a present..He knew he has a big chance now knowing his biggest nemesis in Novak Djokovic is not here anymore..

    3]…RG is very very important to him..always will and The Coupe is just 2 steps away…

    4]…He maybe keep a cool face and lay low but the scores that he created these past week tell another story guys!…Sure Thiem maybe dangerous but Rafa got 9 already!He’s certainly will not shy to show Thiem who’s superior this time around…I’m not trying to bragging guys..but,this is what i believe..it’s okay if u guys don’t want to believe it…I never worried about any player except Novak…and so is Rafa and uncle Toni…so,with novak already out,i don’t think Rafa will let this golden opportunity slides away without a fight…

    Reply

    • MA,

      You are going to be my source of strength as we head into the semifinals.

      I need your words of wisdom! You make so much sense.

      I believe that Rafa wants this with every fiber of his being. I think he will do whatever it takes. You are right that Rafa’s biggest threat is now out. He knows this is an opportunity. I do not expect it to be easy. Thiem is young and hungry and feeling it now. But Rafa knows what to expect, what he is up against. I think he will be ready.

      Thanks for being there! We can hold virtual hands in cyber space!
      ?

      Reply

    • Thanks, MA. I’m always nervous when Rafa plays but not because I doubt his skill or commitment. I was really scared when Rafa had to play the Sod in the 2010 final and he just SHOWED UP. Rafa was blogging during the French Open that year but he hadn’t done one the night before final day. He apologized later, said he’d wanted to go to bed early “to make final day come sooner”. Like a little kid on Christmas Eve. Bet that’s the way he’s feeling now. 🙂

      Reply

    • Yeah Atul…Agree that Thiem has weapons,stamina and age to hurt Rafa..but,IMO atm..i don’t think he’ll manage to do the damage to Rafa…NOT at RG… NOT in the BO5 and certainly NOT at this stage…He maybe can steal a set from Rafa..although i predict that Rafa will prevail in 3…Thiem looks superior because Novak atm is not Novak of old…he’s still fragile and vulnerable..But Rafa to me already reached the form that brought him to 9 titles here…So,Thiem will face a totally different opponent than Novak..

      Reply

      • MA,

        Thanks for your thoughts. I watched my recording which ended up being the Novak/Thiem match. I started getting nervous watching Thiem push Novak around. I wonder if things might have played out differently if
        Novak had won the first set. I didn’t realize that Novak has set point, but couldn’t convert. That was a tight set and a tight TB.

        Thiem’s serve seemed to be hard for Novak to handle and he has one of the best ROS in the game. But then I realized that this was not Novak at his best. Any ideas that he was back were put to rest watching that match.

        The third set was just painful to watch. It was shocking and disturbing. Despite signs that Novak was improving, the problems were exposed in that match.

        Thiem is going to come out blasting against Rafa. He needs to be ready. He hasn’t played much with the rain delay and then not gettIng in a complete match today.

        I just hope Rafa can handle Thiem’s aggressive play. I know he’s in great form but this is a big step up from the guys he’s been playing.

        They said on the tennis channel that Team Nadal would have preferred to play Novak in this form over Thiem. That made me nervous.

        This is just how I get at this stage of a slam.

        Reply

        • NNY, not to worry. Rafa has played against Thiem many times this season, I’m sure he knows what to expect and what to do. The fact that Djoko not at his best was able to push Thiem to the limit in set one and had set point vs Thiem, means that if Rafa playing his best will have his chances getting the first set.

          It’s important for Rafa to win the first set, creating some doubts in Thiem’s mind. He has to rush Thiem, i.e. moves forward as much as possible and not allowing Thiem time to hit freely.

          I’m sure Team Rafa will come out with a good game plan. Vamos Rafa for the win!

          Reply

        • Nny!…I know,i know…I don’t know how to explain..but,i’m not worried at all Nny..none!!…i’m not trying to act bigheaded or something and I maybe wrong on friday..and i will accept it like a brave person if Rafa lost…but,atm..i can’t bring myself to see that Rafa will lost to Thiem…The factor’s all pointed to Rafa Nny..and most importantly…he’s healthy..no back pain..no wrist injury..no wobble knees,no shoulder problem…legs that can still run like a rabbit..his form is superb…his confidence is crazy high..self belief already intact in place…gas is still full in the tank..and i can list many other things Nny…and..

          About what his team said…my guess,it’s just their way to cope with the pressure for Rafa…they want to shift the attention from Rafa and his much talk about La Decima…They want to transfer that pressure to Thiem a little…simple words…a mind game from Rafa’s camp…Same with what Rafa said yesterday…he said,he maybe will not up to challenge on friday..heh heh!..as much as i love Rafa but i won’t buy his bull!…and after he said that..he back up with..”i will make sure that i will play my best and produce my BEST TENNIS!…There u go Nny!!..His best tennis here meant..he’s only lost 22 games in 5 matches..in 2012 he lost 25 games at the same stage and won FO that year…That’s his version of BEST…

          But..we’ll gonna see how the much anticipated match will unfold tomorrow…don’t worry Nny…we have to set our mind in positive thinking from the start…let’s tell ourselves…it’s VERY VERY OKAY if Rafa win…but,IT’S ALSO OKAY if rafa lost…it’s not the end of the world…it’s just not meant for him k?But…let’s go to semi first!!….Teach the kid a lesson one or two things Rafa!!Woohooo!!…I BELIEVE IN YOU!!!!

          Reply

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