As expected, Iga Swiatek kicked off her clay-court swing with a title last week in Stuttgart. The world No. 1 dropped one set to Karolina Pliskova along the way, but she otherwise cruised–including over Aryna Sabalenka in the final.
Will Swiatek also dominate at the Mutua Madrid Open? It’s possible but also far from a guarantee. Conditions are quite fast at high altitude, so big hitters like Sabalenka, Pliskova, and Elena Rybakina are set up for success. As for Swiatek, she has only played this tournament once in her career and lost in the third round (2021).
Let’s take a look at the top seed’s primary challengers.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka was outmatched in the Stuttgart final, but she will like her chances more in Madrid. As the No. 2 seed, the Belarusian again would not have to face Swiatek until the championship. By then there is at least some chance that someone like Rybakina will have already ousted the Pole. Either way, it’s not like Sabalenka couldn’t accomplish that feat in the final. If there is any clay-court tournament at which Sabalenka could beat Swiatek, it’s Madrid.
Elena Rybakina
Like Sabalenka, Rybakina will love these conditions. Also like Sabalenka, the Kazakh boasts one of the most lethal serves and forehands on tour–and her backhand is pretty darn powerful, too. Rybakina won Wimbledon last summer and her 2023 results include runner-ups at the Australian Open and in Miami plus a title in Indian Wells. Being in Swiatek’s section of the draw is far from ideal, but an upset is certainly well within the realm of possibility.
Jessica Pegula
Clay may not be Pegula’s best surface, but she went all the way to the Madrid final last year. She is also coming off a semifinal showing in Charleston, so her clay-court swing started well. The in-form American has a decent enough draw in Madrid, too, as she would not run into Swiatek until the semis and Sabalenka until the final.
who ya got, men’s & women’s?
Rybakina / Sabalenka final (Rybakina wins)
Rybakina/Pegula SF
Sakkari/ Sabalenka SF
Rybakina and Alcaraz.
Raducanu – Linette Final
Raducanu – Linette Final?
I’m watching some matches that I missed on the WTA Website. The one that first caught my attention was 15 yr old Mirra Andreeva playing and winning a match today in Madrid vs. Beatrice Haddad Maia. Mirra is another amazing teen from Russia; she beat Leylah Fernandez in easy straight sets yesterday. Andreeva is scheduled to play Magda Linette in Madrid on Saturday.
I forgot to mention Mirra Andreeva came into this tournament ranked #194; beating Leyla Fernandez was her first WTA Tour-level win. Haddad Maia came into Madrid seeded #13. Mirra Andreeva moved up 30+ ranking points to #164.
Happy to see Jelena Ostapenko and Maria Sakkari were winners today, also. 😀
Rybakina ousted by Kalinskaya 😭:(
There goes the bracket! Conditions not so great for her.
Hi Margot,
Terrible bracket choice for the winner, but how did we know?
However, you remain on top! I see you picked Bernarda Pera.
Did you watch Iga’s last match? I thought she looked shaky and uncomfortable. Do you think Bernarda can oust Iga on this tricky clay court? Oddsmakers don’t give Bernarda much chance, but how often do oddsmakers get it right? You chose Iga knowing who Pera is; that makes me feel better because your WTA bracket still has plenty of green! Mine picks are mainly in red.
And that Russian teenager, Mirra Andreeva, beat Magda Linette.
That’s a big win for her! Next in line for Andreeva is Sabalenka. I can’t help cheering the teen on! That kind of win would make Mirra Andreeva a household name 😀
I like Iga for RG, not sure here but think she’ll be OK v Pera.However, with Ryb out of the way, who knows here now?
Read how good/promising Andreeva is, so look forward to watching her.
Yes, RG is Iga’s comfort zone, and she won Rome last year, and that might not be a comfortable memory; she beat Ons in the Final.
I am not feeling good about Iga winning in Madrid, and I am up early to watch tennis 😀 I’m ready for whatever happens. I picked Iga over Q.Zheng, too, the losing to Rybak.
This could be Sabalenka’s thing. (if she can handle the youthful enthusiasm of Mirra Andreeva) She has a big personality. She turned 16 yesterday. She also has an 18 yr old sister Erika. Erika also plays tennis, and Mirra is about to pass her sister in the rankings!
And Kasatkina won her match–very happy about that!
I keep picking aryna by law of averages will be right sometimes.I can’t get used to the length of this tournsment- still another week. Rome extended also
Andy said these extended masters are a bad thing as tour already so long.
I watched some of Ryba’s match. She was far below her best and seemed off mentally. Didn’t see Petra lose but not surprising given injury issues and Niemeier being tough. Apparently she seemed pretty tired. Thought Ryba looked tired as well. With 2 of my faves out am not enjoying this tournament much.
Hoping for either Barbora or Iga to win.
Oh and Dasha! I like Dasha….
Pity Barbora and Iga are on same side. Would be good final.
Hi amy,
The Hottest player is playing Sabalenka tomorrow–16 yr old Mirra Andreeva from Russia.
This is Mirra’s first main draw tournament, and she is kicking butt 😀
Kudermetova, another favorite, is playing snobby little Poopoo. Go Kudermetova!
I think you picked it right, Big Al.
Sabalenka is hitting all comers off the court so far.
And you chose Khachanov over RBA (my pick).
Elizabeth, I saw some of Sabalenka against Sorana. Sorana didn’t play nearly as well as in Miami but Sabalenka was serving at 83% first serve!! If she keeps doing that she will be hard to beat..
I look forward to watching the teen sensation…!
Sorana has been one of my Romanian staples; many are consistent enough to win 2-4 matches in any tournament.
Bouskova los today. She was up against the immovable object, Pegula. Speaking of countries with many female top tennis players, the Czechs seem to have many. Petra Kvitova is #1 and Barbora Krejcikova is their #2. The list is long. Oh dear, Iga is playing, and I can’t watch
Iga is winning pretty comfortably!
Yeah, I prefer RBA but he hasnt played well until now .Khachanov always tough
I have no preference for either one really, I like both the same. My bracket was what I was thinking about. 😀
Of course. I just like RBAs game.
Id like to see Hurkacz go through his section not least because o picked him.
Sabalenka gave Cirstea no chance this time really turned it on.
I remember you like Hubie. I think I picked him for another win. But
Rublev has to play Khachanov now. It’s not ideal when friends have to play with each other. They are both so polite – the tension isn’t there. I like it when Medvedev has to play Tststi.
Tsitsi v Kyrgios , now theres tension;)
How did Jelena only win 2 games against Samsonova?!
Gauff only won 3 she against Badosa. There is no way she is defending her RG points. Why does no one seem to do the serious work needed on her fh? It’s such a liability.
I didn’t see Ostapeko; she is focused only on the French Open. Maybe she will try harder in Rome? Hard to tell, but an interview she had on the tennis channel recently gave me that idea.
Iga won. Looked good at the end….
Iga is stressing me out. I don’t fare well when I become attached to a player. I could drone on about it, but it’s not interesting unless you like complaining 😀
I hear she got very shaky in the second set against Alexandrova. But she still won. Bit worrying though. Alexandrova isn’t that good…
Maybe Iga is feeling the pressure of expectation on clay and so many points to defend?
Barbora lost!😪
Had multiple set points then played a poor tiebreak.
Am quite fed up about it…
I really like her.
Only player left in the draw I really like is Iga…
Yes, I wish Barbora would take a break, get herself rested, and keep her mind focused. I like her too, but like Iga, she keeps playing.
Saba bounced back quickly after losing the first set to Sherif.
Yes, I agree, spot on.
Even Saba the Great was off track during her match vs. tricky player Mayar Sherif.
Incredibly flaky start from Zverev. 2 dfs on first service game and loads of ues. He has the game to beat Alcaraz as we saw at Rg. post injury he isn’t the same player…
David Ferrer is at Foki’s match. Seriously engrossed, he appears.
I miss him.
Rafa always says in another era Ferrer would have won slams…
He tried hard for a long time. I imagine he still runs Marathons; he is that type– he has to be keeping his body fine-tuned.
Sakkari is another one I love to watch. Her eyes are mischievous. She is a solid competitor and will fight to the end.
Her match is coming on soon; it’s not for another hour and a half. She is playing Begu. The Odds are very close. I would not bet on it, but I watched Maria’s last match, and she is playing well. Her serve was a useful weapon. Begu will test her. I can’t believe how fast the year is going! Almost RG already!!
I like Maria. But she is unreliable. This year she has had some solid results. I was really fed up when she beat Petra in IW when Petra had been in control of the match.
I did not see that match. I need to go to youtube and watch. How did Sakkari manage that? She is feisty — that Maria Sakkari.
Petra went on to win Miami, where the conditions were better. Wasn’t it windy and cold in IW?
Fritz and Zhang are tied at 4-4 in the decider. I might never see Sakkari/Begu if I don’t look it up later. I only have Tennis Channel. American men (especially Fritz-o) are #1. I hope Zhang wins.
Zhang is putting up a great fight!
I watched a bit after I saw he won the second set.
Don’t want to watch any more in case You Know Who wins😠
PS sorry I can’t remember the Petra match. I only saw bits and pieces
Maria is trying to break back..oh no she misses..😠
I can’t listen to what Petchyman will say – muted.
Still a chance for Zhang,
No hope of watching Sakkari and Begu.
Did you know he used to coach Maria? There’s a thought….
OMG! Zhang won!!😀
Maria broke back..!😀
No, I did not know Petchyman coached Maria! It couldn’t have lasted long…
I see Maria is serving.
Begu takes the first set. Maria will fight back until she wins this. A match vs. Sabalenka will be the prize.
I like Sakkari when she plays consistent. Nothing to do with her eyes. I love her hairstyle though 🙂
I like Fritz and Alcaraz, though the former could move better and Charlie need to grow up bit. I cant warm to Rune.
Funny, my favourite players seem to coincide with most peoples least favourites on here 😉
Does behavior on court reflect behavior off? Dunno if that’s always the case. Look at what a grouch Andy was on court, absolutely delightful off.
Congratulations to Zhang!
Begu was serving for the first set, and Sakkari broke her. Hopefully, they will go to that match after a lengthy commercial.
Zhizhen speaks perfect English and likes to talk; nice personality.
Begu won the first set.😠
Zhang does seem an attractive person. So happy he won…
Irina-Camilia Begu is 5’11. I looked it up. I’m thinking Begu-Saba would be a better SF match.
I don’t like this constant coaching. I don’t think they should have it on either tour. It’s only recently been introduced in the men’s.
Being able to adjust your game and tactics should be a part of being able to win…
Can’t see either of them beating Saba.
Maria is the better player and much fitter…
Agree on much fitter! Begu makes me remember Monica Niculescu. She could frustrate her opponents into losing, lol…
I think this is Sabalenka’s title. We have Swiatek vs. Petra Martic and Pegula vs. Kudermetova waiting in the wings.
Before I say tomorrow, I always check the time in your neck of the woods. Is it just past 9 PM?
Anyway, fun watching tennis with you, amy! Now I need to go; it is 2:15 PM here.
Cheers, amy 😀
It’s 9.30 Elizabeth!
I am giving up now as well…!
See you tomorrow…😀
Ok I just noticed the American time stamp . It says 3.30 when it is 9.30 here so I am 6 hours ahead of the time on this site…presumably that’s the time zone Ricky is on. You must be 7 hours behind…
I had to take a break. Apparently, (not sure if this happened before the TB or during the first set), but Begu bounced her racket off a chair, and it hit a kid. And no one did anything right away. Finally, an official came over and gave Begu a penalty. Only a penalty? Wow. Imagine if Nole would have done that. Have to read what exactly happened later. And yeah, the tennis was not stopped.
I didn’t see that! I didn’t see some of the first set and have been in and out at times…
Hasnt Begu done something like that before?
It’s true that Rothenberg would have been tweeting furiously if it was Novak…and press would have been on it like a flash..
If it hit a kid that sounds pretty awful and should have had some real sanction.
Nalbandian got disqualified in the final at Queens for accidentally hitting a linesperson, I think.
That’s a huge problem for tennis, rules are applied inconsistently. Remember when Mo got down off his chair and gave Naughty Nick a hug? I disagree with you, I think the bigger the star, the more leniency there is.
When the linesperson is left in agony they have to do something esp if done in anger.
Nalbandian wasn’t angry with the linesperson, he was angry with himself and that back fired. “Agony” is very subjective anyway. My point is degrees of “agony” shouldn’t be the issue, bodily contact should be, and that should be applied consistently. Even that’s problematic, as when a ball strikes a linesperson/official. Some strikes, depending on intensity, could cause “agony.”
Point is it was done in anger.Agree agony is subjective but when appearing to have a public display of apparent agony like the us open limeseoman not able to breath , that’s often why they take action like banning.And could also argue Djokovic wasn’t angry when he hit ball.
Brilliant set from Iga.
Hope you are reassured Elizabeth!😀
I can’t say I am reassured about Swiatek. But Sakkari is causing me to smile right now. 😀
Please can we stop the coaching on both tours.
Does my head in.
Henman said a while ago they wouldn’t be allowing it at wimby if he had his way….
Sakkari is making tennis interesting right now. Saba will still win the set if she can hold serve.
I hope Sakkari will win a set!
Oh, sorry, never mind. Sabalenka already won the first set.
Making coffee is required before I say anything.
Saba has been trying to get this done fast.
Maria must slow her down, or this SF will be over quickly.
And it is.
What a bummer these SFs have been.
I couldn’t watch J-L Struff win on the men’s side, but maybe Carlos needs to pass the J-L Struff test. This will have me cheering for Charlie!
Oh, I forget, it is Karatsev vs. Struff lol…
Coric and Charlie sound great to me compared to J-L Struff and anyone.