Who can challenge Alcaraz at Madrid Masters?

All signs point to another title for Carlos Alcaraz at the Mutua Madrid Open.

After all, Alcaraz has won three of the five tournaments he has entered in 2023 (and reached the final of a fourth) and he is the Madrid defending champion. Last year’s run to the winner’s trophy included back-to-back victories over Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, both of whom are absent this time around. Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz’s chief rival this season, also added his name to the withdrawal list.

With those players missing, who can challenge the top seed? Let’s take a look.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Tsitsipas lost to Alcaraz in the Barcelona final, but by his recent standards it was without question a successful week. A should injury finally looks like a thing of the past, so there is plenty of reason for confidence moving forward in this clay-court season. Clay has always been the Greek’s best surface and in four previous trips to Madrid he has one runner-up performance and one semifinal showing. On the opposite side of the draw from Alcaraz, Tsitsipas is set up nicely for another deep run at this Masters 1000 tournament.

Daniil Medvedev – Medvedev is a self-proclaimed hard-court specialist, and he isn’t lying. That isn’t good news for him this time of year, but he is also far from terrible on clay. The Russian reached the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals earlier this month; if he can play decent there, he can play well in Madrid. These are the fastest clay-court conditions on tour, so Medvedev should like them more–or hate them less–than he does elsewhere on the dirt. Heck, he might even like them more than those in Indian Wells–where he went all the way to the final. With a 31-4 record this season, he can’t be discounted anywhere.

Taylor Fritz – Fritz is quietly becoming a very solid clay-court player, with back-to-back semifinal appearances in Monte-Carlo and Munich. Is this the tournament where he starts making serious noise? It’s definitely possible, as Madrid conditions should suit Fritz’s game extremely well. The American’s draw is not the easiest with Medvedev in the same section, but being on the other side from Alcaraz is obviously a plus.

Hubert Hurkacz – Hurkacz is another player who should thrive in these fast conditions. The world No. 15 advanced to the quarterfinals last spring before falling to Djokovic, so he knows he can play well in Madrid. Hurkacz is coming off a decent third-round effort in Monte-Carlo (lost to Sinner in three sets) and did not play last week, so he will be well rested for another Masters 1000 run. The Pole has triumphed at this level once before (Miami in 2021) and there is no reason why he can’t do so again, especially in a somewhat depleted draw.