A whole host of Spaniards will be featured during first-round action in Doha on Tuesday. Rafael Nadal is going up against Pablo Carreno Busta, while David Ferrer is facing Ukrainian Illya Marchenko.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Nadal will officially kick off his 2016 singles campaign when he takes the court with Carreno Busta on Tuesday evening at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. The two friends, fellow Spaniards, and occasional doubles partners will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. They previously faced each other last season on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro, where Nadal prevailed 7-5, 6-3.
The No. 2 seed’s preparation for this debut match has been solid. Last week in a six-man Abu Dhabi exhibition event, Nadal captured the title with defeats of David Ferrer and Milos Raonic. He also got a match under his belt in Doha on Monday, losing in doubles with Fernando Verdasco 6-7(4), 6-4, 11-9 to Teymuraz Gabashvili and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Carreno Busta is coming off a solid but unspectacular 2015 campaign. He won 14 ATP-level matches, reached three Challenger finals (two titles), and finished at 67th in the world. Some entertaining baseline battles should be on display in this one, but for the most part Nadal will likely enjoy one-way traffic.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer
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Illya Marchenko vs. (4) David Ferrer
Ferrer’s season will begin with a title defense, as the Spaniard triumphed last year in Doha by benefiting from a rare loss by Novak Djokovic to beat Ivo Karlovic in the semis and Tomas Berdych in the final. It was one of five titles for Ferrer during what was an impressive and underrated 2015 campaign. The world No. 7 booked a spot in the World Tour Finals despite missing two months–including Wimbledon and the entire American hard-court swing prior to the U.S. Open–because of an elbow injury. Ferrer played last week in Abu Dhabi, double-breadsticking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga before falling to Nadal in three sets.
Up first for Ferrer on Tuesday is Marchenko, whom the 33-year-old has never faced. This is a somewhat rare ATP-level, main-draw appearance for Marchenko, who registers at 94th in the rankings and spent most of his time on the Challenger circuit last season. A second-round performance at the U.S. Open as a qualifier followed by consistent success in Challengers helped the Ukrainian storm into the top 100. But this a steep step up in competition, and a well-prepared Ferrer should cruise.
Pick: Ferrer in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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who ya got?
I get so upset at Rafa immediately giving up his service games when up a break… that is huge issue. He needs to deal with it…it is really becoming an ugly pattern…
Rafa in 2 is my prediction…Ferry in 2 as well
It’s a mental problem (his words, not mine).
@AT 3:20 PM
YOUR words, not his – Rafa hasn’t said that’s the reason.
Last week, Rafa said “mental problem” referring to his issues last year.
When you chronically surrender a service break, that’s mental, not physical.
“Mental problem” was the phrase used by RAFA.
I believe him.
As Rafa said, others are not as honest as him. For example, extreme so called fans have made up stories about “only joking” and not to believe him.
He is not “only joking” as someone wants you to believe.
“Mental problem” is his words, not mine as someone wants you to believe.
I put in CAPS Rafa’s reference to his mental problem for your convenience.
Rafa said:
‘At the end ,the only thing to do is to accept the problem and work in order to find a solution. It was not easy, I needed some months but you arrive at a point where you relax and say: well, I will play tennis, because it’s not that I forgot how to do it, no? It was a mental question, and in a situation like this it’s impossible to play tennis well. I hadn’t had fear. If I had had fear I would not have been ashamed to say it, because I am not a person who doesn’t admit these things, but it was not fear. It was a strange situation that you couldn’t control; like respiration and time. When you don’t succeed to control these two things, when you do not know where the ball will bounce, it’s because mentally you are worried; that’s caused by anxiety. But I am world no. 5 and it’s not that bad.
‘When I fail normally, I accept it. When you have a MENTAL PROBLEM; it’s not that you accept these situations less or in a worst way, but you can’t analyze these well, clearly. Every loss influenced me a lot; this year every failure was like three failures; and I had a lack of confidence.’
The interview was in Spanish and Rafa’s own words were “un problema mental”.
Not mine.
Rafa has always said it was MENTAL problem…nothing new in this regard…it’s just the way we chose to interpret the cause of it…
I say it’s because Rafa still can’t trust his own game…his service is easily exploited by his rivals (read: his service is no force or no threat to anyone right now and even tends to desert him when needed the most…); his FHs are not there yet, mainly I would say due to his deteriorated movements…it becomes obvious that he has worked so hard to improve his BHs and they are no longer a big liability but rather his strong weapon…lastly, he is not as fast as he used to be…some adjustment simply must come…I think both Rafa and his team are aware of it but I tend to believe it is more difficult to implement significant changes in Rafa’s case than for any other player…and the surface does not help either…I believe Rafa will feel much more confident implementing those changes on clay…
Rafa has had so many comebacks and he had always emerged victorious…this was the first time he could not meet his OWN expectations! This is where this whole problem comes from…once he starts beating top three players he will start trusting his own game again…it’s a process…
I disapprove when Rafa claims he “got lucky” when wining a match…in a way he diminishes his own accomplishments…
natashao2013 JANUARY 4, 2016 AT 4:47 PM
—Rafa has always said it was MENTAL problem…nothing new in this regard…it’s just the way we chose to interpret the cause of it…—
===
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The local armchair doctor, hawk, is constantly constructing his personal interpretations & delivering a diagnosis to Rafa. Nothing new in this regard. He has polluted more than one thread.
You need to get out more.
The interview was in Spanish and Rafa’s own words were “un problema mental”.
Not mine.
I am picking both Rafa and Ferrer in 2 sets. This should be pretty straightforward.
Same old problem with Rafa, always couldnt sustain a good level, not helped by a partner who’s playing so poorly.
Novak OTOH doesnt have such a problem, sent Dustin Brown packing in 51 mins at 6-2, 6-2 scoreline. Brown is only good on grass, no where else, wonder how he survives in the tour.
Rafa should be able to beat Busta, I think in two sets. Ferrer in two.
I can’t see the doubles match with Rafa, so I assume from this comment that he lost. Novak’s win was as I thought it would be with him losing less than 7 games. I guess he’s ready.
It’s true about Brown. He really hasn’t done anything off the grass.
yep. Doha is easy picking. Ferru in 2. Rafa in 2.
Apparently Nole doesn’t have a rust problem 🙂
any tiebreakers?
Same picks as yours
smart
Keep calm, stay strong and believe in yourself, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX8u7x5WEAAST5m.png
Ferrer match could go on forever. I hope Ferrer is in Djoko’s quarter in AO. My crystal ball says that will ensure Djoko doesn’t win AO. But it becomes opaque when I look for the champion. Rafa? Muzz? Stan? Fed? Or someone new?
why would Ferrer being in Djokovic’s quarter hurt Djokovic?
Since 2008, Nole has won 28 of 29 sets vs Ferrer on hard court going 12-0 in the process.
And you question Ricky’s logic.
hawkeye’s argument is fallacious! I am waiting for someone ( with a great sense of humor i.e.she can make others laugh….at her!) to jump in and say, “well said” .
Then say something well.
He will delay all the matches leading to frustration and loss of inertia!
1-0, 30-0*
Besides I do not owe an explanation. The crystal ball doesn’t give reasons.
Marchenko is reminding me of Safin. Where has he come from all foa sudden?
all of a sudden? He was a huge talent years ago before getting injured. But yes, still a shocking result.
DO YOU?
Marchenko beats Ferrer in 3 sets! Marchenko played like a top 10 player.
I hope Marchenko is in Djoko’s quarter in AO.
(of course that will mean that he will be in Rafa’s quarter too.)
aggressor vs. innocent bystander
set PCB
Marchenko has talent so I’m not overly surprised he got the win especially in ferrer’s first match of the year.
Ferrer should have been well practiced after Abu Dhabi
set Nadal
I watched the first game of set 1 and rafa was killing the ball. I had to go then. WHAT THE HECK happened after that? losing in a tie break!?
He is playing well right now as well
Just a few too many defensive points in the TB cost him the set.
Both held their own serves well.
Rafa yielded just nine points on his serve in the 1st set and that includes the 2-3 points he lost in the TB.
Rafa just failed to consolidate his early break in the third set – mental problem.
hawkeye,
Thanks for the breakdown of what happened in the second set. Since I can’t see it, then at least I know what happened and why this match went to three sets.
Oops sorry! I meant to say the first set!
Anyway, thanks for enlightening me! 🙂
Loses serve all of a sudden! Not consistent..
No, actually he consistently loses serve when up a break – mental problem.
That was his first break point faced in the match.
about to break back
Break Back Mountain.
DO YOU???
somehow saves BP
Rafa breaks back.
Three breaks in a row.
Ricky, I propose that the rest of this match discussion be moved to the newly created WTA page.
I think Ricky quite logically picked Nole to win Doha for lack of anyone else in the draw to pick. You don’t pick a player who could win. Any player CAN win. You pick the player you believe is most likely to win given current form, conditions, draws and recent meetings.
LOL yet another BP for PCB when Rafa tries to consolidate again.
How many times???
#MentalProblemsAreEverywhere
Also it’s djokovic at an ATP 250 event.
Unbelievable, Rafa is so much better, he is playing well and yet being tentative and making uncharacteristic errors on key points…
held somehow