Doha R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Ferrer vs. Marchenko

January 4, 2016 Ricky Match previews 85

FerrerA whole host of Spaniards will be featured during first-round action in Doha on Tuesday. Rafael Nadal is going up against Pablo Carreno Busta, while David Ferrer is facing Ukrainian Illya Marchenko.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will officially kick off his 2016 singles campaign when he takes the court with Carreno Busta on Tuesday evening at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. The two friends, fellow Spaniards, and occasional doubles partners will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. They previously faced each other last season on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro, where Nadal prevailed 7-5, 6-3.

The No. 2 seed’s preparation for this debut match has been solid. Last week in a six-man Abu Dhabi exhibition event, Nadal captured the title with defeats of David Ferrer and Milos Raonic. He also got a match under his belt in Doha on Monday, losing in doubles with Fernando Verdasco 6-7(4), 6-4, 11-9 to Teymuraz Gabashvili and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Carreno Busta is coming off a solid but unspectacular 2015 campaign. He won 14 ATP-level matches, reached three Challenger finals (two titles), and finished at 67th in the world. Some entertaining baseline battles should be on display in this one, but for the most part Nadal will likely enjoy one-way traffic.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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Illya Marchenko vs. (4) David Ferrer

Ferrer’s season will begin with a title defense, as the Spaniard triumphed last year in Doha by benefiting from a rare loss by Novak Djokovic to beat Ivo Karlovic in the semis and Tomas Berdych in the final. It was one of five titles for Ferrer during what was an impressive and underrated 2015 campaign. The world No. 7 booked a spot in the World Tour Finals despite missing two months–including Wimbledon and the entire American hard-court swing prior to the U.S. Open–because of an elbow injury. Ferrer played last week in Abu Dhabi, double-breadsticking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga before falling to Nadal in three sets.

Up first for Ferrer on Tuesday is Marchenko, whom the 33-year-old has never faced. This is a somewhat rare ATP-level, main-draw appearance for Marchenko, who registers at 94th in the rankings and spent most of his time on the Challenger circuit last season. A second-round performance at the U.S. Open as a qualifier followed by consistent success in Challengers helped the Ukrainian storm into the top 100. But this a steep step up in competition, and a well-prepared Ferrer should cruise.

Pick: Ferrer in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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34 Comments on Doha R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Ferrer vs. Marchenko

  1. unlike in 2015, rafa is able to find the answers thanks to a series of thunderous returns and backhands and forehands 🙂

    Reply

  2. He lost to Berrer in a frustrating performance last year and he finds the answers in a similar situation this year. That is what matters the most. Good job, rafa. There is work to do but each of these victories mean a lot.

    Reply

      • I can’t see the match, since the tennis channel isn’t even showing Doha at all. So I came here to read the thoughts on this match. I certainly never thought it would go 3 sets!

        Reply

  3. Pablo has been playing well lately so I didn’t expect it to be easy but Rafa needs matches where he has to find answers.

    I tried to get tickets but their website is impossible. I’m watching it on TV in Dubai which enables me to spend more time with my family.

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  4. Based on what I watched in set 3 and some statistics I saw , here are my observations:

    – At the moment, rafa is not consistent enough with his new game plan. He gets in terminator mode for a few games but then makes bad errors.

    -Rafa’s mental strength seems to be getting back. He faced adversity with ‘colm’ and found a way easily at the end.

    – Rafa is absolutely determined to execute his new game plan. He was not backing off in terms of return positioning even when he was not having the best of results.

    -Part of rafa’s new game plan is to return serve from closer to the baseline on a consistent basis. THAT comes with a price. The depth on returns, esp second serve returns matter more than ever now! IF he hits a short return or a mediocre return, his opponents are able to hit winners dictate more easily because rafa can’t defend that well from so close to the baseline.
    In set 1, they showed that his return placement was hardly beyond the service line. In set 2, it was much closer to the baseline and hence there was the difference. For his super aggressive baseline gameplan to work, he MUST get good length on second serve returns!

    – Rafa’s backhand DTL has improved. So far, it seems to be that way. Would like to see more but it appears he is penetrating the court better and using it as a weapon more often.

    Reply

    • “For his super aggressive baseline gameplan to work, he MUST get good length on second serve returns!”

      He used to consistently get good length on his returns.

      This is not a new problem. It’s how he lost RG ’09 to Soderling.

      Reply

      • Hawkeye, yes you are right, but this is different. If his ROS positioning is well behind the baseline, he is more likely to get away with mediocre returns because he always has a chance to retrieve and pull out the magical shot from well behind the baseline. When he is returning from inside the baseline and hits a mediocre return, he does not even have a chance to defend too much and retrieve! So, it is crucial that he gets good-great length on returns so that he can start rallies either with an advantage or at least on level grounds.

        Reply

        • mmmm, yes to some degree but I don’t think it’s significantly better either way.

          Leave a ball short against any top player, and you’ll likely lose the point regardless of positioning.

          Reply

      • AT 7:17 PM,
        —It’s how he lost RG ’09 to Soderling—
        ===
        .
        Someone is yet again making attempts to rewrite Rafa’s (hi)story!

        Reply

        • No, you are wrong again.

          Rafa left many points short against Soderling in that match.

          More made up stories from you.

          All you know about tennis is who won or lost (and you can read the rule book).

          Reply

          • Very first video of “highlights” from this match is a horrible drop shot left hanging from Rafa.

            Very next point three consecutive short balls from Rafa.

            Most of the points in this video Rafa is guilty of hitting short balls near the service line when he usually wouldn’t.

            He was not himself and I remember watching the match wondering why so many points were hit short.

            Maybe he was “only joking” according to you.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpaeA_g5hx4

    • vamosrafa,

      Thanks for posting your observations. You know that I have confidence in what you have to say. It sounds like a mixed bag with Rafa at the moment.

      Reply

  6. Let’s not be mistaken to think Rafa did not play well! He served extremely well, he was returning well, his BHs were amazing most of the time, made some errors from the FH side but overall very steady and strong showing…the only flaws I see is his tentativeness on his own serve when up a break…at some point I noticed Rafa hit great winners out of anger! I think that’s what he needs…to prove to himself that he is so much better than his opponent! Rafa needs to believe in his own game…

    Reply

  7. backing of* (third point, line 1)

    Also, rafa may well have found renewed self-belief and faith but the confidence needed to win match after match will only come as a result of getting a good number of matches under his belt. There is no alternative. He needs to win some matches with good feelings and that is when the ‘package’ will reach completion. Every aspect of his game will get a boost as a result of that confidence catalyst.

    Reply

  8. RT Ricky Dimon: “Manuel Messina asks Nadal if he wants the instructions in English. Nadal says: no thanks”
    RT Genny SS: “In fact, Messina offered English and Italian…. and ended up talking in Italian.”
    __
    Rafa speaks Italian. Here he gives an interview in Italian (in May 2015):
    http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2uwfmx_rafael-nadal-s-interview-with-adriano-panatta-in-italian_sport
    (Adriano Panatta is a former tennis player from Italy, the winner of Roland Garros 1976)

    Reply

  9. Didnt watch the match.

    Regarding Rafa’s ROS, when he played against Raonic at Abu Dhabi, he was so smart with his ROS, varying his return positions, keeping Raonic guessing and hesitating where to place his serves. Raonic ended up having to serve more second serves and played into Rafa’s hands.Rafa can vary his return positions, not necessary must be right at the baseline even for returning second serves.

    I do feel that Rafa has been hitting some very solid BH DTL this start of season. It seems that he and his camp have finally realized that he does need a BHDTL now that he’s slower to run around his BH to hit his FH DTL.

    He’s serving well but it seems that he always has a lull mid way through his matches and messed up, still tense at crucial moments.

    I do realize that he’s hitting flatter FHs at Abu Dhabi, those that followed through across his body, not above his head and they were more penetrating.

    He’s willing to move forward more often but couldnt keep up for a whole match, reverting to old way of playing mid match, so I agree with VR that Rafa needs to press on with his new way of playing until it becomes a habit and his adopted style.

    Reply

  11. In fact, Rafa played better as the match progressed. His serving percentage increased to high 85% in Set 3. So I don’t think he was reverting to his old style of play mid match. His problem is failing to convert break points and still feeling tense on key points. He messed up but he was also able to hit extraordinary winners! when the match was over the commentator said ” This was Rafa of old that we saw today! If he continues playing like this he will go deep in the tourney”…

    Reply

  12. Rafa looked like he was hitting really well to be honest. I predict a top 3 spot for Rafa by the end of the season. And a win at RG.

    Reply

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