Andrey Rublev just figured out how to beat an opponent against whom he had been hopeless in the past.
Rublev will have to do it again in the final of the Western & Southern Open on Sunday if he wants to capture his first-ever Masters 1000 title.
After ending a string of five consecutive losses (and 12 straight dropped sets) to fellow Russian Daniil Medvedev on Saturday, Rublev’s reward is a showdown against Alexander Zverev. The head-to-head to head series stands at a perfect 4-0 in Zverev’s favor and–like Medvedev–the German has never surrendered a single set to Rublev. They most recently faced each other at the 2020 Australian Open, where Zverev cruised 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
It was right around that time when Rublev was starting to become the current Rublev, so this will probably be Zverev’s toughest test to date with the 23-year-old. Rublev led the ATP Tour with five titles last season and is 41-13 in 2021, continuing to cement himself in the top eight of the rankings. The world No. 7 is through to his second Masters 1000 final following Cincinnati victories over Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils, Benoit Paire, and Daniil Medvedev–requiring three sets on three occasions and two tiebreakers against Monfils.
Coming off a gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics, Zverev cruised through matches earlier this week at the expense of Lloyd Harris, Guido Pella, and Casper Ruud. Things predictably got a lot tougher on Saturday night, when the No. 3 seed recovered from a double-break down in the final set to outlast Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4) after two hours and 41 minutes.
In matchup between two red hot but fatigued players, this one is likely going to come down to intangibles. Zverev has won six tournaments of this size or bigger (four Masters 1000s, the Nitto ATP Finals, and the Olympics), while Rublev has never won anything more than a 500–albeit a lot of them.
In the pressure moments, Zverev’s experience and ability to earn free points with his increasingly reliable serve will likely be the difference.
Pick: Zverev in 3
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Zverev 2-0