Beijing and Tokyo previews and picks

For the first time since Wimbledon, Rafael Nadal is back.

Always one of the best spots on the annual calendar outside of Grand Slams and Masters 1000 events, the Beijing-Tokyo week will be especially intriguing this time around. That’s because Nadal is returning to the court. The world No. 2, who has been dealing with a wrist injury, is joined in a loaded Beijing field by Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, and U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic. In Tokyo, Stan Wawrinka leads the way along with David Ferrer, Milos Raonic, and U.S. Open runner-up Kei Nishikori.

China Open

Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $2,500,470
Points: 500

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: With this field, it was almost impossible for anyone to find a good draw (although Cilic managed to do it). Nadal’s may be one of the more difficult ones, as the second seed has to contest his first match against Richard Gasquet—arguably the best unseeded player in the tournament (although Fabio Fognini and Feliciano Lopez are ranked higher). Nadal could face Ivo Karlovic in the second round and Ernests Gulbis, who has troubled but never beaten the Spaniard in the past, in the quarters. If Nadal can navigate his way into the top eight, he may be home free to the final. Potential seeded semi opponents are Berdych John Isner, against whom Nadal is 22-3 lifetime.

Cilic could not have asked for a softer section is his first tournament since a stunning triumph in New York. The ninth-ranked Croat will open against wild card Yan Bai before running into either Joao Sousa or a qualifier. Murray, who is coming off a long week as a finalist in Shenzhen, could face Cilic in the quarterfinals. The fourth-seeded Scot will kick off his Beijing campaign against Jerzy Janowicz. At the top of the bracket, Djokovic (19-0 lifetime at this event) is taking on Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and the Serb’s nearest seed is Grigor Dimitrov. It will be by no means a breeze for Djokovic and Cilic, but the upper half is not as deep despite being more top-heavy than the bottom half.

First-round upset alert: Fernando Verdasco over (5) Grigor Dimitrov. Their only previous encounter came last year on the clay courts of Bastad, where Verdasco prevailed 7-6(3), 5-7, 7-5. Dimitrov is a much-improved player one year later so he should be able to get some revenge, but it may not be easy. While Verdasco has been in mediocre form, Dimitrov’s three most recent losses have not been encouraging. The Bulgarian got crushed by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Toronto, lost to Janowicz in Cincinnati, and fell to Gael Monfils in straight sets at the U.S. Open.

Hot: Marin Cilic, Julien Benneteau, Pablo Cuevas, Tommy Robredo, Viktor Troicki

Cold: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Santiago Giraldo, Mikhail Youzhny

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Grigor Dimitrov, Marin Cilic over Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych over John Isner, and Rafael Nadal over Leonardo Mayer

Semifinals: Djokovic over Cilic and Nadal over Berdych

Final: Djokovic over Nadal

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Rakuten Japan Open

Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,228,825
Points: 500

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
2013 champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)

Draw analysis: Nishikori’s potential path to the Tokyo title could feature two of his most significant scalps en route to the U.S. Open final. Japan’s top player fought past both Raonic and Wawrinka in five sets in New York and it is not out of the question that he faces both—albeit in reverse order—this week. Nishikori would first have to defeat Ivan Dodig, either Donald Young or Go Soeda, and then perhaps either Kevin Anderson or Dominic Thiem. At that point he could get Wawrinka in the semis. Like Nishikori, Wawrinka should have little trouble early in the week. The top-seeded Swiss will begin his quest versus wild card Tatsuma Ito and his nearest seed is Alexandr Dolgopolov, who has not played a match since mid-July.

An intriguing third quarter of the bracket may not have very top players in the tournament, but it is where Raonic and Tsonga are on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Raonic first has to get through Bernard Tomic in his opener, while Tsonga may be in line for a second-round date with Denis Isomin. An all-Spanish quarterfinal at the bottom of the draw is possible between Ferrer and Roberto Bautista Agut. Ferrer already has to battle countryman Marcel Granollers in the opening round.

First-round upset alert: Jack Sock over (8) Alexandr Dolgopolov. One of Dolgopolov’s biggest wins came earlier this season in the Indian Wells third round over Nadal. Now both of those men are making comebacks from approximate two/three-month layoffs. Dolgopolov missed the entire U.S. Open Series due to a knee injury, so he has not taken the court since playing at Wimbledon and then in Hamburg. Sock may be able to capitalize, assuming he has no lingering effects from a calf problem that cropped up in New York. The American, who got through three U.S. Open doubles matches following the injury, is up to No. 71 in the world with 20 ATP-level wins this season.

Hot: Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem, Steve Johnson

Cold: Alexandr Dolgopolov, Go Soeda, Jurgen Melzer

Quarterfinal predictions: Stan Wawrinka over Jack Sock, Kei Nishikori over Jeremy Chardy, Milos Raonic over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Roberto Bautista Agut over David Ferrer

Semifinals: Wawrinka over Nishikori and Raonic over Bautista Agut

Final: Raonic over Wawrinka

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!