Basel SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Federer vs. Sock

Rafa 5Rafael Nadal has survived a trio of three-setters and will face Richard Gasquet in the Basel semifinals on Saturday. Another intriguing semifinal showdown pits Roger Federer against an in-form Jack Sock.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Richard Gasquet

Nadal and Gasquet will be going head-to-head for the 14th time in their careers at the ATP level when they collide in the semifinals of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Saturday. All 13 of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, including five on hard courts (two indoors). The Spaniard has won 21 consecutive sets at Gasquet’s expense dating back to the 2008 Canada Masters. Gasquet actually once got the best of his nemesis, but that came via retirement after the opening set at an indoor Challenger event in France back in 2003.

The Frenchman is unlikely to benefit from that kind of luck this time around because Nadal appears to be heating up as the season comes to a close. The world No. 7 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis, and so far this week he has survived Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic all in three sets.  Gasquet escaped a thriller of his own on Friday, when he saved one match point to scrape past Ivo Karlovic 6-4, 6-7(2), 7-6(6). The fifth seed preceded that victory by taking out Jiri Vesely in three sets and Dominic Thiem in straights. Gasquet is an awesome 41-15 for the year and appears to be on his way to London as an alternate. This matchup, however, is quite clearly a disaster for him. He is unable to hit his opponent off the court with Nadal’s heavy forehand consistently getting the best of his one-handed backhand. Count on more of the same continuing, although this one should at least be competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 2

[polldaddy poll=9154812]

(1) Roger Federer vs. Jack Sock

Federer and Sock will be squaring off for the second time in their careers and for the third time this season on Saturday. Their only previous meeting came in Indian Wells, where Federer coasted 6-3, 6-2. This is not exactly the setting Sock would choose in order to exact some revenge. After all, Federer is a six-time champion of this tournament, has been to nine consecutive finals, and boasts a 59-9 lifetime record. So far this week the 34-year-old Swiss has defeated Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and David Goffin–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin in the process.

A red-hot Sock finished runner-up in Stockholm six days ago and he has not looked back. The 29th-ranked American rolled over Denis Kudla and John Isner before beating yet another countryman, Donald Young, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 on Saturday. Sock is 35-16 for his 2015 campaign and he all but clinched a seed for the upcoming Australian Open. The underdog will be able to pepper Federer’s backhand with his own forehand that has been calculated at more revolutions per minute than that of Nadal. But Sock has played a ton of recent tennis and either fatigue or simply an overall dip in form showed up against Young. Unless Sock picks it back up and Federer plays like he did in set two against Goffin, this should be mostly straightforward.

Pick: Federer in 2

[polldaddy poll=9154924]

29 Comments on Basel SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Federer vs. Sock

  1. and now he rips a backhand DTL winner! AND LOOK AT THAT! jaw-dropping stuff from rafa! suchhh a high quality game this was! the best rafa has played this week.

    12 winners to 9 UE… he can do better in terms of hitting winners but the last part of the set saw much better hitting

  2. No idea what is going on but the TennisTV stream keep rewinding itself. I’ve seen the 5:4 game at least 4 times but not the moment Rafa broke to take the set.

    Ao far, so good.

      • Cant be faffed if you really want to know. He won the set that’s what matters. Anyway it has settled down now – in time to see Rafa drop his serve 🙁

        Wish he’d up the anti. He needs to get off court and have that knee treated.

  3. vamosrafa,

    I just said almost the exact same thing in my post right before yours. In fact, I think we may have posted at the same time!

    Nice serving stats from Rafa. Look at the second serve percentage won by Gasquet – 36%! Not gonna get it done.

    12 winners to 9 UE’s isn’t bad. That’s the lowest UE’s I’ve seen this week. I think there will be more winners as Rafa keeps working.

    It’s so great to see Rafa stepping up and taking that first set after being down a break!

  4. movement towards the backhand side not as explosive as it can be for rafa..but he’ll slowly get there…

    so 15-40 thanks to a vicious CC forehand and now 30-40 thanks to a thunderous CC backhand! pull it to deuce boy!

  5. don’t know what is it about the first games of sets :S rafa almost ALWAYS struggles in thees games….

    Oh, gasquet does a fantastic job on BP…. he deserved to get this break..

    Rafa will break back

    • I agree about Gasquet deserving that break with a great shot. I just wish Rafa hadn’t put himself in that position.

  6. Rafa’s game looks quite messy now; standing so far behind the baseline and then approaches the net poorly. Hes looking a step slow also, must be feeling the tiredness on his legs after so many three sets matches.

  7. No way of knowing how much the left knee is bothering him. He’s well used to playing through the pain but It’s bound to affect his concentration. Fingers crossed it won’t get worse.

  8. I truly hope it’s not! But Rafa has had his chances to break back and can’t get it done. I know one thing. Rafa cannot afford to be broken early against Fed. Not there yet I know, but it’s not something I want to see on a regular basis.

    • he will definitely have to raise his level a lot against Federer….. Fed’s got such a great serve and he is so much offensive.

      I wish rafa can get this done in 2 sets somehow! playing so many 3 set matches would mean he won’t be 100% in the final… he is not that strong now physically

  9. And why cant Rafa just serve like that in his first service game of each set? Since he’s capable of serving ok and hitting aggressive shots then why doesn’t he do it at the beginning of each set? I really don’t understand his logic. Hes making life difficult for himself in every match!

  10. Thank goodness! Rafa broke back and held. Now it’s either break Gasquet or it’s a TB.
    I really want Rafa to get this done now.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.