Basel SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Federer vs. Sock

Rafa 5Rafael Nadal has survived a trio of three-setters and will face Richard Gasquet in the Basel semifinals on Saturday. Another intriguing semifinal showdown pits Roger Federer against an in-form Jack Sock.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Richard Gasquet

Nadal and Gasquet will be going head-to-head for the 14th time in their careers at the ATP level when they collide in the semifinals of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Saturday. All 13 of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, including five on hard courts (two indoors). The Spaniard has won 21 consecutive sets at Gasquet’s expense dating back to the 2008 Canada Masters. Gasquet actually once got the best of his nemesis, but that came via retirement after the opening set at an indoor Challenger event in France back in 2003.

The Frenchman is unlikely to benefit from that kind of luck this time around because Nadal appears to be heating up as the season comes to a close. The world No. 7 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis, and so far this week he has survived Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic all in three sets.  Gasquet escaped a thriller of his own on Friday, when he saved one match point to scrape past Ivo Karlovic 6-4, 6-7(2), 7-6(6). The fifth seed preceded that victory by taking out Jiri Vesely in three sets and Dominic Thiem in straights. Gasquet is an awesome 41-15 for the year and appears to be on his way to London as an alternate. This matchup, however, is quite clearly a disaster for him. He is unable to hit his opponent off the court with Nadal’s heavy forehand consistently getting the best of his one-handed backhand. Count on more of the same continuing, although this one should at least be competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(1) Roger Federer vs. Jack Sock

Federer and Sock will be squaring off for the second time in their careers and for the third time this season on Saturday. Their only previous meeting came in Indian Wells, where Federer coasted 6-3, 6-2. This is not exactly the setting Sock would choose in order to exact some revenge. After all, Federer is a six-time champion of this tournament, has been to nine consecutive finals, and boasts a 59-9 lifetime record. So far this week the 34-year-old Swiss has defeated Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and David Goffin–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin in the process.

A red-hot Sock finished runner-up in Stockholm six days ago and he has not looked back. The 29th-ranked American rolled over Denis Kudla and John Isner before beating yet another countryman, Donald Young, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 on Saturday. Sock is 35-16 for his 2015 campaign and he all but clinched a seed for the upcoming Australian Open. The underdog will be able to pepper Federer’s backhand with his own forehand that has been calculated at more revolutions per minute than that of Nadal. But Sock has played a ton of recent tennis and either fatigue or simply an overall dip in form showed up against Young. Unless Sock picks it back up and Federer plays like he did in set two against Goffin, this should be mostly straightforward.

Pick: Federer in 2

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43 Comments on Basel SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Federer vs. Sock

  1. I gave my prediction on the daily picks topic thread but will repost it here.

    Rafa over Gasquet in 2 sets

    Fed over Sock in 2 sets.

  2. Ricky has a way of putting Rafa down and putting Fed up like almost all tennis writers. Whilst Rafa ‘survived’ being taken to 3 sets, Fed only kindly ‘surrendered’ 3 sets in 2 of his matches.

    Epic ?

    • Haha.

      I was watching highlights of a1998 match between Agassi and a 17 year old virtually unknown Federer. David Mercer was already calling him classy.

  3. I’ve long thought there are strict instructions from above to keep TMF on a pedastal. The ATP is desperate to wring the last ounze of commercial value from his presence, Most likely he will be canonised as the patron saint of tennis when he retires.

  4. Both Gasquet and Rafa have been taken to three sets in 50% of their last ten matches. And both have won 70% of those matches. This all points to a 3-setter. Gasquet is mentally a lot tougher these days and playing well but not well enough to beat Rafa.

    Rafa in 3 sets (with a TB in the 1st)

  5. There is no doubt about it that Rafa should take Gasquet in 2…Rafa lost numerous close matches this year because of his inner doubts, mental lapses and lack of confidence on key points…Rafa’s game collapses when he is doubting himself…this fall we are seeing Rafa progressively becoming his old self and trusting his own game…it is still not perfect but he is getting there…

    these wins in Basel are huge confidence boost for our boy…Gasquet has never been a real danger for Rafa…even this “incomplete” version of Rafa is the favorite today…I do not think G has the game to trouble Rafa…but we all know it takes two to beat Rafa…this other opponent in Rafa himself is more dangerous but I think Rafa has been dealing with “HIM” quite efficiently lately…

    I am liking what I have been able to see from Rafa this fall…he is building up for the AO 2016…I hope he stays healthy and fit and then goes on to win AO 2016 and the RG 2016…I do not even care about the Olympics.. 🙂

    it should be Rafa’s win today…Expect Rafa to be flat and rather slow in the first set as he never gets pumped up against his friends…but I certainly hope that Rafa takes this in 2…He needs some rest for the finals..

    Vamos Rafa!

  6. finally some aggressive shots from rafa in that rally….big CC backhands,.

    another commanding point! perhaps he has woken up

  7. vamosrafa,

    You are here! Finally! That’s a good thing! I am here, too.

    I wonder if Rafa can do this in 2 sets. I went back and forth with my prediction and maybe saying 2 sets is my hope.

    Gasquet is playing well up a break. Rafa needs to get going.

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