Basel and Valencia previews and predictions

October 25, 2015 Ricky Tournament previews 234

Roger Federer has played only one ATP tournament match since the U.S. Open, but he hopes to get five under his belt this week in Basel. The crowd favorite is 56-9 lifetime at this home event with six titles (including last year) and he has reached the final in nine consecutive appearances. As usual, though, Federer will have plenty of competition—the 2015 field also features Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, and Marin Cilic, just to a name a few.

While that 500-point tournament headlines the action, a strong 250-pointer will also be in progress. Although Valencia has been downgraded (switched with Vienna), it still boasts an entertainment-heavy draw consisting of David Ferrer, Benoit Paire, and Nick Kyrgios.

Swiss Indoors Basel

Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,575,295 Euros

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Federer could not have asked for a better draw in Basel. The 34-year-old Swiss will kick off his campaign against Mikhail Kukushkin before likely running into Philipp Kohlschreiber and then David Goffin (the latter would represent a rematch of last season’s final). Even Nadal is on the other side of the bracket, thus presumably making life easier for Federer. Potential semifinal opponents for the No. 1 seed include Kevin Anderson John Isner, and Stockholm runner-up Jack Sock.

Nadal’s path, on the other hand, is taxing to say the least. The third-seeded Spaniard is going up against Lukas Rosol on Monday before possible dates with Grigor Dimitrov and Cilic. Wawrinka’s draw is similarly difficult. In fact, everyone in this half other than Cilic has something tough—at least on paper—prior to the quarters. Wawrinka has to face Ivo Karlovic right off the bat, with the winner potentially meeting Alexandr Dolgopolov.

First-round upset alert: Ernests Gulbis over (6) John Isner. Gulbis traditionally has his way with big servers and last week in Vienna was no exception. The Latvian took down Isner 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 and Ivo Karlovic in pair of tiebreakers en route to the semis. Gulbis is now 3-2 lifetime against the American (and 2-0 at the expense of Karlovic), having also prevailed on grass (Wimbledon 2008) and clay (Monte-Carlo 2013). In all likelihood Isner will get some revenge for Vienna, but the sixth seed is often vulnerable outside the United States and is always an upset risk because of his propensity for close matches with very few service breaks.

Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Jack Sock

Cold: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Adrian Mannarino, Ernests Gulbis, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexandr Dolgopolov

Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over David Goffin, John Isner over Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic over Rafael Nadal, and Stan Wawrinka over Dominic Thiem

Semifinal predictions: Federer over Isner and Wawrinka over Cilic

Final: Federer over Wawrinka

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Valencia Open

Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 537,050 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: David Ferrer
2014 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

Draw analysis: Both of the Vienna finalists–Ferrer and Steve Johnson–are getting right back in action at the Valencia Open. While Ferrer has the benefit of a bye and may not have to play again until Thursday, his draw is not a friendly one. The Spaniard’s opening match will likely come against Kyrgios, who is back in decent form after a rough summer both on and off the court. Jeremy Chardy, who is playing well and especially dangerous indoors, looms as a potential quarterfinal opponent for either Ferrer or Kyrgios. The top half is also home to Paire and Bernard Tomic, whose mental games are at least starting to show signs of catching up to their talent.

At the bottom of the bracket, Johnson will open with Martin Klizan—likely on Wednesday—and would face Lopez in the last 16. The entire side is considerably weaker than the top half, in part because it includes all three wild cards plus two qualifiers. Two of the seeds—Fabio Fognini and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez—can be vulnerable and another, Roberto Bautista Agut, is coming off a long week in Moscow (runner-up to Cilic). This is a wide-open path to the final for Lopez, but any number of players could capitalize if the Spaniard stumbles early.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Nicolas Almagro over (7) Roberto Bautista Agut. A huge edge in current form goes to Bautista Agut, but the seventh seed may be more interested in rest than Valencia success. He also finished runner-up to Cilic last year in Moscow (also by a 6-4, 6-4 scoreline, in fact) then pulled out of Valencia prior to his second-round match. Almagro has not yet regained top form following a long injury layoff, but he advanced one round in Stockholm after picking up his first ATP-level win since a post-Wimbledon stretch on clay.

Hot: David Ferrer, Bernard Tomic, Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire, Jeremy Chardy, Steve Johnson

Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro, Santiago Giraldo, Marcel Granollers, Pablo Andujar

Semifinal predictions: Nick Kyrgios over Bernard Tomic and Feliciano Lopez over Fabio Fognini

Final: Lopez over Kyrgios

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36 Comments on Basel and Valencia previews and predictions

    • Rafa is so sweet and so humorous! I love the way he answered that first question of that on court interview : ‘i think the same way as you, you know….’ when asked how he felt when he was about to lose and on his way out of Basel and the interviewer said he and the whole crowd were thinking so. Rafa is very honest when assessing his own level and I’m loving the way he improves so much his English and can express himself so well these days.

      Reply

      • lucky,

        I agree! That’s what is so incredibly charming about Rafa. He will just agree with the interviewer that he was thinking the same thing – that he was on his way out!

        I also wholeheartedly agree about Rafa’s honesty in assessing his level and his game.

        Watching this interview, just made me smile and chuckle a bit! 🙂

        Reply

      • Lucky and hawkeye,

        I think you both make some good points about Rafa’s match with Rosol. I enjoy listening to Paul Annacone’s analysis during matches. Later in the match, especially in the latter half of the second set and the third set, that Rafa was trying to move up and stay closer to the baseline. In the first set, Rosol’s raw power was just pushing Rafa back. In one of my comment when we were previewing the match, I think it was on the Rafa fan page, I said that Rosol would come out blasting and try to push Rafa back with his raw power. But the good news is that Rafa was able to change the dynamic in the match. Those are the kind of tactical changes he has been so good at, but for most of this year just has not been able to implement.

        However, I also think hawkeye makes a good point that Rafa’s nerves and being on this kind of indoor court played a part in allowing Rosol to dictate and control the points in that first set. I kept thinking to myself – come on, Rafa, you are better than this. It was just so lopsided in the first set. I also agree that there is nothing like seeing Rafa in comeback mode. Again, this was a match he would have lost a few months ago.

        Reply

      • Rafa’s words about Rosol really said it all. It was obvious that he didn’t want to say anything really negative or mean about Rosol, but I think what he didn’t say was even more powerful. Everybody knows about him. That’s for sure!

        I think this is a huge leap for Rafa. I do not think that one match means that all is well and Rafa is back. I have never looked at it that way. Rafa’s troubles went on for too long this year and it was always going to be a process to get back. But he’s looked so much better recently in Beijing and Shanghai. The progress was there for everyone to see.

        This match was something entirely different. Rafa was a couple of points from losing the match. Yet he found a way to come back. This is the thing that he has not been able to do this year. Rafa’s greatest quality is that ferocious will to win, the refusal to lose. Today we finally saw it again. He just did not want to lose to this guy today. So he found a way to get back in the match and win. So many times we have called Rafa “Houdini”, because he is never out of a match and never more dangerous than when his back is against the wall. That’s where he was in this match. But he came back from the brink.

        This was a joy and a pleasure to see. Little by little, step by step, brick by brick, Rafa is getting himself back together.

        Welcome back, Rafa! You have been sorely missed! 🙂

        Reply

  11. Unfortunately, the tennis channel is currently showing women’s matches. I am not sure when they will switch to the men. So I have to rely on checking live scores for any of the men’s matches currently being played.

    Reply

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