Roger Federer has played only one ATP tournament match since the U.S. Open, but he hopes to get five under his belt this week in Basel. The crowd favorite is 56-9 lifetime at this home event with six titles (including last year) and he has reached the final in nine consecutive appearances. As usual, though, Federer will have plenty of competition—the 2015 field also features Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, and Marin Cilic, just to a name a few.
While that 500-point tournament headlines the action, a strong 250-pointer will also be in progress. Although Valencia has been downgraded (switched with Vienna), it still boasts an entertainment-heavy draw consisting of David Ferrer, Benoit Paire, and Nick Kyrgios.
Swiss Indoors Basel
Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,575,295 Euros
Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Federer could not have asked for a better draw in Basel. The 34-year-old Swiss will kick off his campaign against Mikhail Kukushkin before likely running into Philipp Kohlschreiber and then David Goffin (the latter would represent a rematch of last season’s final). Even Nadal is on the other side of the bracket, thus presumably making life easier for Federer. Potential semifinal opponents for the No. 1 seed include Kevin Anderson John Isner, and Stockholm runner-up Jack Sock.
Nadal’s path, on the other hand, is taxing to say the least. The third-seeded Spaniard is going up against Lukas Rosol on Monday before possible dates with Grigor Dimitrov and Cilic. Wawrinka’s draw is similarly difficult. In fact, everyone in this half other than Cilic has something tough—at least on paper—prior to the quarters. Wawrinka has to face Ivo Karlovic right off the bat, with the winner potentially meeting Alexandr Dolgopolov.
First-round upset alert: Ernests Gulbis over (6) John Isner. Gulbis traditionally has his way with big servers and last week in Vienna was no exception. The Latvian took down Isner 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 and Ivo Karlovic in pair of tiebreakers en route to the semis. Gulbis is now 3-2 lifetime against the American (and 2-0 at the expense of Karlovic), having also prevailed on grass (Wimbledon 2008) and clay (Monte-Carlo 2013). In all likelihood Isner will get some revenge for Vienna, but the sixth seed is often vulnerable outside the United States and is always an upset risk because of his propensity for close matches with very few service breaks.
Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Jack Sock
Cold: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Adrian Mannarino, Ernests Gulbis, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexandr Dolgopolov
Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over David Goffin, John Isner over Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic over Rafael Nadal, and Stan Wawrinka over Dominic Thiem
Semifinal predictions: Federer over Isner and Wawrinka over Cilic
Final: Federer over Wawrinka
[polldaddy poll=9144073]
Valencia Open
Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 537,050 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: David Ferrer
2014 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)
Draw analysis: Both of the Vienna finalists–Ferrer and Steve Johnson–are getting right back in action at the Valencia Open. While Ferrer has the benefit of a bye and may not have to play again until Thursday, his draw is not a friendly one. The Spaniard’s opening match will likely come against Kyrgios, who is back in decent form after a rough summer both on and off the court. Jeremy Chardy, who is playing well and especially dangerous indoors, looms as a potential quarterfinal opponent for either Ferrer or Kyrgios. The top half is also home to Paire and Bernard Tomic, whose mental games are at least starting to show signs of catching up to their talent.
At the bottom of the bracket, Johnson will open with Martin Klizan—likely on Wednesday—and would face Lopez in the last 16. The entire side is considerably weaker than the top half, in part because it includes all three wild cards plus two qualifiers. Two of the seeds—Fabio Fognini and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez—can be vulnerable and another, Roberto Bautista Agut, is coming off a long week in Moscow (runner-up to Cilic). This is a wide-open path to the final for Lopez, but any number of players could capitalize if the Spaniard stumbles early.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Nicolas Almagro over (7) Roberto Bautista Agut. A huge edge in current form goes to Bautista Agut, but the seventh seed may be more interested in rest than Valencia success. He also finished runner-up to Cilic last year in Moscow (also by a 6-4, 6-4 scoreline, in fact) then pulled out of Valencia prior to his second-round match. Almagro has not yet regained top form following a long injury layoff, but he advanced one round in Stockholm after picking up his first ATP-level win since a post-Wimbledon stretch on clay.
Hot: David Ferrer, Bernard Tomic, Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire, Jeremy Chardy, Steve Johnson
Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro, Santiago Giraldo, Marcel Granollers, Pablo Andujar
Semifinal predictions: Nick Kyrgios over Bernard Tomic and Feliciano Lopez over Fabio Fognini
Final: Lopez over Kyrgios
[polldaddy poll=9144077]
Wawrinka over cilic and then Federer over Cilic? You mean federer vs wawrinka , right?
Rafa’s gona beat Cilic I think…
correct. Wawrinka. #fixed
vamosrafa,
It’s about time you showed up! 🙂
lol! I know NNY… been ridiculously busy… had to work over the weekend as well.
Will try to take more time out for tennis and of course tenngrand… I definitely have plans to see rafa play in the WTF 🙂
Stan has a bridge to cross in his first round match strewed with aces served by Dr Ivo from the top of a tree. Let’s see him cross that bridge first before we put him in the final. Stan leads their h2h 5:1 but every match was close.
I don’t know what will happen Ricky, but Cilic is not beating Rafa if they meet.
why not? Cilic on an indoor hard court during the fall swing has a win over Nadal written all over it.
We shall see.
we might not! Cilic is tired and may not make it there. I just think if he does successfully get 2 matches under his belt, he will be tough (as long as the first 2 matches are easy).
agreed that Cilic is a very tough opponent for Rafa in these conditions…i just feel rafa will edge this one out…
vamosrafa,
Lucky you now being in London! You can get the chance to see Rafa!
I figured you are busy with work. But I am glad that you came back now that Rafa is playing again. I sure hope he continues to play the way he’s been playing. Then good things will happen! 🙂
haha yes! one of the perks of being in London … Looking forward to seeing him play.
Yup, if rafa can continue to play like this, good things will happen.
Stan hasn’t beaten a top 10 player since the French Open.
so who wants a Fedal final? I am DESPERATE to see one now!!
Let’s not count our chickens before they are hatched. 🙂
I do think that Cilic will be tough for Rafa given the court conditions in this tournament. But I think if Rafa continues to play the way he did in Beijing and Shanghai then he can win that one.
So Ricky, you picked Cilic to beat Rafa in the QF but you don’t think Cilic will make it that far?
The more adamant Ricky’s assertation the less likely it will come to pass 🙂
Didn’t he emphatically say that Johnson wouldn’t take a set from Ferrer yesterday?
Exactly.
The first round upset alert for a possible Gulbis win over Isner would mean that Isner can’t get to the quarterfinals. So I assume that Ricky thinks Isner will still beat Gulbis. We will see.
I am not even thinking about a Fedal final yet. Fed has an easy path, but Rafa’s is more tricky. One match at a time.
haha…totally agreed! it’s just that we have not seen a fedal battle in ages so just wishing …
vamosrafa,
Yes, of course I would love to see it, same as you. I just don’t want to get too carried away just yet! 🙂
that is the right way to go about things at the moment,… rafa’s progressing nicely but these are indoor conditions. However, the type of changes rafa is trying to implement , they can make him better than he ever was in indoor conditions. It will take some time…we know his goal is to prepare well for 2016 but a title here would be soooo lovely…lotsss of work to do of course
exactly…
Rafa is not that bad indoors. I have seen him courtside at the O2 and he can hold his own. In 2009 when he failed to win a set he was just going through the motions because he was emotionally drained for personal reasons. He even beat Fed the last time they played each other at the O2.
‘not that bad’ says it all 🙂 he is Rafael Nadal! He has played at a good level indoors but definitely lots of room for improvement… he has improved over the years and yes he did beat federer in straight sets but we should also keep in mind that federer had a terrible 2013! Fed’s better indoors but if rafa can build some nice momentum, he can take fed down…
If excuses are permitted, then I should point out that Rafa was unwell with food poisoning when Roger beat him 63 60 at the O2 in 2011. The reason I said ‘not that bad’ was in response to how people’s opinion of Rafa indoor is unfairly low.
Undeservedly low, maybe. Unfairly? No. Results are results. Having an unfavorable opinion of Rafa indoors is not unfair.
Nadline, as Ricky said ,results are results…esp when they span a decade or so! You just need to look at the results of federer and nadal indoors… however, rafa IS capable of beating federer indoors but for that he must build some nice momentum.
I’m not saying Federer is not better than Rafa indoors, of course he is; that would be like saying Rafa is not better on clay than Federer. Even Rafa himself says indoors is not his best surface and he doesn’t expect to win Basel or Paris, but that doesn’t mean that he is completely hopeless on indoor courts.
Rafa did beat Ljubicic on indoor hard in Madrid in 2005 at the age of 19 over 5 sets despite Ljubicic serving 32 aces, so he can’t be that bad.
Ricky,
Thanks for your comment. I try to base my opinion on results over a period of time. It doesn’t mean that Rafa can’t play on indoor courts or is horrible. I just happen to think it’s his weakest surface.
Of course Rafa can beat Fed indoors. But as vamosrafa said so well, he has to build up momentum and be in really good form.
it is his worst surface. Not really up for debate. That being said, I think Nadal is the favorite in any match against Federer on any surface in any country.
^Yes!
^No. It took Rafa’s best form in 2013 and Roger’s worst form in 2013 for Rafa to finally beat Fed indoors for the first and only time in their careers.
Federer is 4-1 indoors. In his four wins, he surrendered a single set.
Federer remains the favourite should they meet indoors in Basel or WTF this year and a substantial one at that given their respective forms even with Rafa’s latest improvements (but far from his best).
In a nutshell, Ricky!
Other than the one set lost in those four wins, Rafa managed 4, 5, 4, 1, 3, 1, 3, 0, 4, 2 games.
So that nutshell is cracked.
^true, as long as nadal is playing well…he is the favourite….
Wait u said RBA withdrew ahead of Valencia? Why would he be on upset alert if he withdrew?
He didnt. Read it again.
I see Roger gets to pick the entire draw for his home tournament. Good thing no slams are in Switzerland.
Always has. Always will. He gets to at slams, as well, so doesnt really matter if there are any slams in Switzerland or not.
No. He can pick his schedule but no evidence of him picking his draw. Organizers are a different matter.
Oh he did that last year ok I see.
?
Basel:
QF-
Federer over Goffin
Isner over Coric
Nadal over Cilic
Wawrinka over Gasquet
SF-
Federer over Isner
Wawrinka over Nadal
Final-
Federer over Wawrinka
Coric?
Gut feeling he gets a three set win. Then again logically Anderson should win.
Oh yeah that was me who said the gut feeling thing.
we know!
Coric!?! U trippin.. Major low standards ?
Wawa over Rafa is not happening. Rafa has turned the corner, he is not the injured or timid Rafa in Australia or Rome. I hope they do meet, but let’s keep our hats on and see what happens in the draw.
Rafa has rarely played near his best indoors. He doesn’t like it.
I don’t see Coric getting through to the quarterfinals to meet Isner. I am not even sure Isner is going to get there. What about Anderson?
has a decent chance
How is verdasco cold man!?? His doing okay. I reckon he will beat Garcia Lopez ay
no he wont
You must have pretty low standards for Verdasco!
Because Garcia Lopez
Also the head to head
U seen the head to head?
H2H records get broken. As Federer found out to his cost at the WTF one year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX5GEh4MmNI
They do indeed. Berdych beat Rafa after 17 straight losses.
I predict Fed will win Basel which would make him Number 2 again.
Hoping that happens.
I didn’t realize that Fed and Murray were still so close.
Valencia:
QF-
Ferrer over Pospisil
Muller over Tomic
Fognini over Almagro
Lopez over Verdasco
SF-
Ferrer over Muller
Lopez over Fognini
Final-
Ferrer over Lopez
OOP for Tuesday:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2015/328/op.pdf
I wonder if they’ll televise the doubles match.
Probably will televise it cuz it’s Rafa.