Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori have won 10 of the last 11 Barcelona titles and they are one round away from a potential showdown in the 2016 final. They first have to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber and Benoit Paire, respectively, on Saturday.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (10) Philipp Kohlschreiber
Nadal is coming off a ninth title in Monte-Carlo and he is now two wins away from accomplishing the same feat at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. On the heels of a disappointing 2015 campaign, the fifth-ranked Spaniard also started slow this year and his American hard-court swing ended with a retirement in the Miami second round. But Nadal is heating up during his favorite and most important part of the season and he is all the way up to No. 2 in the race to London. So far in Barcelona, the top seed has taken out Marcel Granollers, Albert Montanes, and Fabio Fognini all in straight sets.
Up next for Nadal on Saturday is a 13th career contest against Kohlschreiber, who is a futile 1-11 in the head-to-head series. Kohlschreiber’s lone victory came on the grass courts of Halle in 2012, when a fatigued Nadal had just lifted the French Open trophy for a seventh time. On clay, the 27th-ranked German is is 0-3 against Nadal at the ATP level and 0-6 in total sets. Kohlschreiber is a stellar 15-7 for his 2016 campaign following victories this week over Pablo Carreno Busta, Feliciano Lopez, and Andrey Kuznetsov. The 10th should be especially confident after cruising past Kuznetsov 6-3, 6-1 on Friday, but there is no reason to think he can turned the tide against Nadal on this surface or at this particular event. Kohlschreiber is an extremely consistent performer and rock-solid all-court player, but he does not have the huge firepower with which to seriously trouble Nadal.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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(6) Benoit Paire vs. (2) Kei Nishikori
Nishikori and Paire will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the third time since last summer when they meet again on Saturday. The head-to-head series is all tied up at two wins apiece after Paire pulled off a pair of upsets in 2015. During first-round action at the U.S. Open, the Frenchman saved two match points before overcoming Nishikori 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4. Paire also prevailed 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the Tokyo semifinals. Nishikori’s victories have come in straight sets on the indoor hard courts of Paris in 2012 and in four sets at the 2013 French Open.
They are now set for a second consecutive showdown in a 500-point semifinal. Paire’s presence in the last four is not entirely expected even though he is the No. 6 seed, because the 26-year-old had lost five of six matches prior to last week and he blew a set and 3-0 lead against Andy Murray in the Monte-Carlo third round. He has bounced back in Barcelona with defeats of Teymuraz Gabashvili, Pablo Cuevas, and Malek Jaziri. Nishikori is the two-time defending champion of this event and he is back in the semis thanks to straight-set wins at the expense of Thiemo De Bakker, Jeremy Chardy, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Once again in awesome form at a tournament he clearly loves, the world No. 6 should be able to avenge his recent losses to Paire without too much trouble.
Pick: Nishikori in 2
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Yes this is true. Rafa had a chance to go up a break and put the pressure on kohls.
It seems that once his opponent hit more aggressively, Rafa would lose the baseline rally. Its better for Rafa to press forward instead of staying at the baseline.
Commies are so obviously anti Rafa
What is Rafa doing? Poor smash, so now 40-15 Kohl instead of 30 all!
Poor tennis again from both.
Rafa gets the break!
Finally Rafa breaks Kohl’s serve! Rafa has to get the precision on his shots. It seems to me Rafa doesnt want to hit too hard for fear of overhitting, and so Kohl has plenty of chances getting to the ball.
I have to say at least Kohl plays better than Paire today so he offers more resistance to Rafa than Paire to Kei.
Kei played better than Rafa today, so if Rafa is in the final, he has to up his level to beat Kei, IMO.
yeah he needs to improve his level a little..it was kind of patchy today.
Raising his level in finals has always been his strength…
Jason Godall thinks Rafa but he is giving him a very slight edge.
I am picking Rafa in 2 tightly contested sets.
Vamossssssssssssssssssss!
Strong finish! Bring in Nishi! VAMOSS!
He can improve a lot of things but he continues to get stronger and stronger and the confidence is clearly growing. He wobbled for a while but regrouped quickly.
Nishi will be a stern test. He has the weapons and is not a good matchcup for Rafa. Rafa will have to be careful with his ROS and the unforced errors. TAKE the opportunities, Rafa. Get your 9th title!
Rafa over Nishi in 2.
VAMOS!!!
Agree with you , Nish is dengerous player. 2 years ago he already beat Nadal in Madrid.
No, Nishi retired from that match…
Rafa wins – 63 63.
Marks out of 10, I’ll say 7. He wasn’t as assertive as I would like. Still a win is a win and for the first time in ages he has won a match without dropping his serve.
Rafa will have to play better against Nishi tomorrow and I expect him to do that.
Rafa is in another final!
yup…expect him to raise his level….can’t wait for the final!
The fear factor must be returning in the locker room. Just needs to beat Nishi tomorrow and let his continue. Very very important match tomorrow
Rafa match stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgvQv5bWYAINX5w.jpg
🙂 🙂
Well, good finish at the end. He won without dropping a serve. Only 1 breakpoint faced.
Four down!!!! ✌ ✌ ✌ ✌
Vaaaamoooos Rafa!!!!
Wow, harsh critics of Rafa’s game here while he faced only ONE break point, won 85 % on his first serve and I think as high as 65% on his second! Kohl making way to many errors but he did it mainly because Rafa pressed his BH side and made him uncomfortable! I say very good match strategically on Rafa’s side and mentally strong! He served an ace on break point! Bravo Rafa!
Btw, I kind of understand Rafa’s reasoning on break points. He probably recons that oponent under pressure would make an error so prefers staying behind, defending and being passive waiting for the right chance. If the opponent has the guts to attack and be aggressive and precise he wins the point! Rafa will change the tactics against likes of Nole, I am sure! But with this Kohl it was not such a bad approach after all! Good job team Nadal!
Go and win your 9th Barselona title, Rafa!
Vamos Champ!
Agreed.
OMG! I read in someone’s comment above ‘poor tennis’…
so? it was poor tennis in those 2-3 games. Not my problem if you are not wise enough to interpret that.
Haha VR I no longer read posts from one or two here once I see their name. They are dead to me. Makes for a much more enjoyable experience here to just read from both real Rafans and tennis fans!
Vamos!
vamos Hawkeye
AT 4:46 PM
OMG! How some things are changing! A year ago somebody became hysterical when I used the expression ‘real Rafans’! 🙄
https://tenngrand.com/2015/03/29/miami-r3-previews-and-picks-nadal-vs-verdasco-tsonga-vs-monfils/comment-page-3/#comment-18903
AT 4:50 PM
Mutually not wise enough, probably.
AT 4:35 PM
I referred to THIS comment:
¤¤ hawkeye APRIL 23, 2016 AT 3:36 PM “Poor tennis again from both.” ¤¤
Not my problem if you are not wise enough to see whom I replied to AT 4:33 PM.
Of course the standards of judging his play are higher now! We are expecting a lot from him now.
Kohls made more mistakes than usual (pretty sure Rafa will say the same) and Rafa missed some easy balls. OVerall, he was in control and continues his run. Quite impressive what he is doing.
Rafa actually attacks a lot more when facing break points…
Kohl only made so many mistakes because of his strategy to go for broke and redline his game vs Rafa knowing that was his only way for chances to win.
Kohl looked great all week until he was forced to make so many unforced errors.
+1
yeah…but it was RAFA who could have avoided some mistakes…the first set should have been 6-2… anyway, he was solid overall and the finish was pretty strong.
Rafa will win tomorrow in 2 sets 🙂
Happy for Rafa and his win, especially in straight sets!!! I was wrong on all my predictions but in this case I am not complaining!!! Rafa won and saved energy for Nishi tomorrow. Looking forward to the match, should be a cracker!!!
Vamos Rafa!!
Yes, now that Rafa is playing more like himself, we are going to hold him to a higher standard.
No one is saying that Rafa did not play well. My sense was that Rafa did enough to get the win. He knew that Kohls did not have the weapons to challenge him here. So there wasn’t a need to go full out.
Rafa did very well to not get broken in this match. So he did what had to be done and that’s it.
However, Nishi does present a challenge. He takes the ball very early. He will come out aggressive right from the start. Kohls looked like he had the same idea in the beginning of this match, but Rafa did not allow him to do it. Nishi is more capable of executing an aggressive game plan because he has more weapons that kohl.
Rafa knows what to expect in the final. He has shown the ability to raise his level of play, as he did in the second set TB against Fog. So I expect him to come out ready in the final.
Rafa needs to win this title so that he can keep the momentum going into Madrid and Rome.
+1
Tomorrow, Rafa will be the King of Klei.
Agree with NNY’s assessment.
Did Rafa not very recently roll over Nishikori in Indian wells ?
He is capable of raising his level though and has the weapons.
Rafa in 2
Rafa is more confident now and less anxious than he was the last time he played Nishi on klei.
^ yes to this. Good points!
Yes, but we can’t take anything for granted. Nishi can be dangerous when he’s on his game. We all thought that Monfils would be a walk in the park and for two sets it was anything but!
I just don’t like to get too carried away. Rafa has the win in I/W over Nishi to give him confidence. I do expect Rafa to win, but I think that Nishi is capable of making it a match.
I knew rafa would falter and be up and down against monfils. Said so too. It was expected as he was fighting for 1st big title in 18 months and hence attack of nerves would take over.
agreed. I thought he was a bit nervous that match. Does not seem so in Barcelona.
Madrid is such a useless tourney in the middle of the clay season.I wish Rafa skips Madrid, but I guess he needs to play to to increase his points tally.
Do you guys think he can be number 4 seed in French?
I give him a 50% chance if he wins tomorrow.