David Goffin has made an impressive and hard-fought run through the Barcelona draw, but now he gets the toughest test in tennis: Rafael Nadal on clay. Saturday’s other semifinal pits Pablo Carreno Busta against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) David Goffin
Nadal and Goffin will be facing each other for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the final of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Saturday. They squared off twice during the clay-court swing last season, when Nadal prevailed 6-3, 6-1 in the Monte-Carlo semifinals and 7-6(3), 6-2 in the Madrid quarters. The Spaniard almost improved to 3-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series at the Nitto ATP Finals despite the fact that he was playing on his least favorite surface (an indoor hard court) and with a knee injury that forced him out of the tournament after one match (Goffin ended up stumbling across the finish line 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4).
Now Goffin has to go up against Nadal at the worst possible setting for his upset chances–on clay at a tournament where the current world No. 1 is a 10-time champion and owner of a 56-3 record. Nadal has extended his clay-court set streak to 42 in a row following wins this week over Roberto Carballes Baena, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Martin Klizan. Goffin required almost seven hours of work during a trio of three-setters to book his place in the semifinals. The 10th-ranked Belgian erased set deficits against Marcel Granollers, Karen Khachanov, and Roberto Bautista Agut while improving his record for an injury-plagued 2018 campaign to 12-5. Even though Goffin’s comeback from an eye problem is gaining some nice momentum, nothing about Saturday’s matchup suggests it will be competitive.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (5) Pablo Carreno Busta
Tsitsipas has announced his arrival on tour in 2018 and is quickly showing that–despite plenty of hard-court success–clay may end up being his favorite surface. The 19-year-old Greek, who advanced to quarterfinals in Doha and Dubai, kicked off the clay-court swing with a second-round performance in Monte-Carlo as a qualifier and he now finds himself in the Barcelona semifinals. Following solid clay-court defeats of Corentin Moutet, Diego Schwartzman, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Tsitsipas took things to a whole different level when he upset Dominic Thiem 6-3, 6-2 on Friday.
Up next for the world No. 63 is a first-ever meeting with Carreno Busta. The 11th-ranked Spaniard reached the French Open quarterfinals last spring and he is enjoying the kind of form that indicates he has a great chance of defending those quarterfinal points. Carreno Busta turned in a fourth-round finish in Indian Wells and a semifinal showing in Miami prior to this run in Barcelona. The No. 5 seed cruised past Benoit Paire, survived Adrian Mannarino 8-6 in a third-set tiebreaker, and ousted second-seeded Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 7-6(4) in the quarters. This should be a highly-contested and high-quality battle, with a slight edge going to Tsitsipas due to his more convincing trek through the draw and his ability to dictate points with offensive tennis.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 3
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