Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas has been reaping the benefits of what is positively a breakout year on the ATP Tour. His latest reward–aside from being a valuable experience–is not one that anyone else would envy right now.

Tsitsipas’ 2018 hot streak has carried him into the final of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, and with it a clay-court showdown against Rafael Nadal on Sunday afternoon. Needless to say, this is just about the worst possible scenario in which Tsitsipas could stage his first-ever meeting with Nadal: on dirt, in Spain, and amidst the pressure of a championship match.

Still, if they were all playing for second place when the tournament began, Tsitsipas has certainly earned that distinction. Building on quarterfinal performances in Doha and Dubai earlier in the season plus a recent second-round showing in Monte-Carlo as a qualifier, the 19-year-old Greek has advanced in Barcelona by beating Corentin Moutet, Diego Schwartzman, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Dominic Thiem, and Pablo Carreno Busta all in straight sets. Tsitsipas is already up to No. 63 in the rankings and he is expected to reach 44th even if he loses on Sunday.

Nadal, of course, cannot go any higher than No. 1. Just as in Monte-Carlo, though, he must capture the title to avoid slipping back to second in the world behind Roger Federer. There is no reason to expect he will fail in that effort, because Nadal has won a ridiculous 44 consecutive clay-court sets dating back to last spring following routs this week of Roberto Carballes Baena, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Martin Klizan, and David Goffin. Moreover, Nadal has won this event an amazing 10 times and boasts a 57-3 lifetime record.

“I have watched millions of his matches on clay,” Tsitsipas said of the Spaniard. “I know the way he is playing and, I think, the way he is going to play against me. I was preparing for this match already, 10 years (ago). I’m going to go out there, enjoy it, and play my best.”

“Stefanos is a great player,” Nadal assured. “Always the young players have something special and he’s playing with big confidence,. He’s playing so well, so it’s going to be a very tough match.”

The top seed always says that and is rarely correct. Nothing has been tough for him in Barcelona aside from a scintillating first set against Klizan, and something similarly competitive with Tsitsipas on the other side of the net would be nothing short of a shock. A steady diet of heavy topspin forehands to the youngster’s one-handed backhand should help Nadal coast to title No. 11 in front of the home crowd.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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10 Comments on Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Again, I make no claim that this is a weak era, on clay or otherwise. Nadal is dominating on clay, and that’s great for him and his fans. I just find it boring to watch, for the most part. I honestly don’t mind seeing Nadal winning a lot, and when he’s pushed it’s a lot of fun to watch. But for whatever reason, most of his competition hasn’t been up to the task even to push him for long.

    Again, Federer has never dominated on other surfaces to the extent that Nadal has on clay. Nevertheless, his lopsided matches can also be boring; for example, Fed’s win over Cilic this year at AO was a lot more exciting to watch than last year’s Wimby final.

    It’s true that there have been some other clay matches not involving Nadal that have been exciting, so I exaggerated there.

    • Of course you do; there were many exciting matches yet you not being a Rafa fan chose to concentrate on Rafa’s matches and ignored the other matches!

      • Yup. Tennis was boring with few exceptions from 2000-2007. Exceptions include Rafa on clay. Sampras winning his last USO was enabled by The Weak Era pre Fed domination as was Thomas Johanssons AO title. Sampras still had to play great tennis but his level then wouldn’t have won him the USO in the 90s IMO.

  2. Rafa is dominating clay for 14 years. Fed is dominating grass for 10-11 years. More than decade of a tennis can’t be a weak era.

    • I think you’d have to say that Fed has been fairly dominant on grass at least as long (and probably longer) as Nadal has on clay, since Fed’s first Wimby title was in 2003. But he’s never been as dominant on grass as Nadal is on clay.

      Agree of course that “weak era” talk is mostly nonsense. What’s going on in both cases is individual dominance by one guy.

      • Fed wasn’t dominant on grass after 2007, when he had to share the glory with Djoko (3 titles since 2007), Rafa (2 titles), Murray (2 titles) and Fed himself winning 3 (2009, 2012, 2017). So, Fed’s dominance on grass was from 2003-2009, losing 2008 title to Rafa.

    • Fed not dominant for 10-11 years, when he was not winning for many years since 2009; winning two Wimbledon in eight years from 2010 to 2017 was hardly any dominance.

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