Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas has been reaping the benefits of what is positively a breakout year on the ATP Tour. His latest reward–aside from being a valuable experience–is not one that anyone else would envy right now.

Tsitsipas’ 2018 hot streak has carried him into the final of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, and with it a clay-court showdown against Rafael Nadal on Sunday afternoon. Needless to say, this is just about the worst possible scenario in which Tsitsipas could stage his first-ever meeting with Nadal: on dirt, in Spain, and amidst the pressure of a championship match.

Still, if they were all playing for second place when the tournament began, Tsitsipas has certainly earned that distinction. Building on quarterfinal performances in Doha and Dubai earlier in the season plus a recent second-round showing in Monte-Carlo as a qualifier, the 19-year-old Greek has advanced in Barcelona by beating Corentin Moutet, Diego Schwartzman, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Dominic Thiem, and Pablo Carreno Busta all in straight sets. Tsitsipas is already up to No. 63 in the rankings and he is expected to reach 44th even if he loses on Sunday.

Nadal, of course, cannot go any higher than No. 1. Just as in Monte-Carlo, though, he must capture the title to avoid slipping back to second in the world behind Roger Federer. There is no reason to expect he will fail in that effort, because Nadal has won a ridiculous 44 consecutive clay-court sets dating back to last spring following routs this week of Roberto Carballes Baena, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Martin Klizan, and David Goffin. Moreover, Nadal has won this event an amazing 10 times and boasts a 57-3 lifetime record.

“I have watched millions of his matches on clay,” Tsitsipas said of the Spaniard. “I know the way he is playing and, I think, the way he is going to play against me. I was preparing for this match already, 10 years (ago). I’m going to go out there, enjoy it, and play my best.”

“Stefanos is a great player,” Nadal assured. “Always the young players have something special and he’s playing with big confidence,. He’s playing so well, so it’s going to be a very tough match.”

The top seed always says that and is rarely correct. Nothing has been tough for him in Barcelona aside from a scintillating first set against Klizan, and something similarly competitive with Tsitsipas on the other side of the net would be nothing short of a shock. A steady diet of heavy topspin forehands to the youngster’s one-handed backhand should help Nadal coast to title No. 11 in front of the home crowd.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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120 Comments on Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Tsitsipas in 3 ( He is in extremely good form, and I think he is the only guy that has a chance against Rafa in this clay season.

  2. I think there’s a potential to be another tough match for Rafa..He never meet with Tsitsipas before,so tend to get nervous coz he’s unfamiliar with his game…Tsitsipas’s big serve,flat hitting BH/FH will bother Rafa a little bit…but like Carballes Baena & Klizan’s match…Rafa still will win in 2 insyaallah!….There is no way Rafa will surrender to this kid today!..C’mon Rafa!…Teach the kid some life lesson today!!..

  3. Tsitsipas in 2. The mafia holds Nadal family as hostage and forces him to lose for match fixing. But if mafia is not involved, then Nadal in 2 losing less than 5 games

  4. I’ve seen nothing in Tsisipas that suggests he can trouble Nadal on clay. His serve is good but not great. And the rest of his game, while nice, is custom-built for Rafa to pounce on it. To trouble Nadal on clay you have to hit hard, relatively flat, and deep in the court. Since that’s extremely hard to do, you also have to be willing to tolerate a significant number of errors, hoping that they will be outnumbered by winners and forced errors on the other side.

    However, Tsisipas hits his groundies with a lot of topspin and not very deep in the court. Even his FH lacks the punch that Goffin was displaying in the first few games of his match against Nadal. And his one-handed BH will be targeted just as Ricky says. Above all, Tsisipas likes to hang back and is very unlikely to consistently try to step inside the baseline to take the ball early. Since that’s basically the only way to have a chance at beating Nadal on clay, Tsisipas has no chance.

  5. As Mira says above, facing a young player for the first time can be tricky for even the top players. e.g. it took Rafa the best part of the first set to bring Carballes Baena under control. I doubt Tsisipas will be over-awed by the occasion (he enjoys the big stage). He’s ‘talking the talk’ but is about to find out ‘walking the walk’ is another matter when it’s Rafa on the other side of the net.

    Rafa in 2

    • The one thing Tsitsipas said that I did not like is that he thinks he knows how Rafa is going to play him. Actually he doesn’t know. Rafa can be full of surprises and is one of the greatest tactical strategists ever.

      Klizan ran his mouth off and still lost in two sets. Talk is cheap. Rafa does his talking with his racket.

  6. It’s not the quality; Tsitsipas has quite a good serve. It’s just that the mechanics look nothing like Federer’s. Unlike, say, Dimitrov’s serve, which is fairly similar.

    I didn’t know that Tsitsipas modeled his game on Federer’s. I don’t see much similarity except for the one-handed BH.

      • And, modeling after Fed doesnt mean he has to copy Fed’s way of serving; it is copying his game style, not how Fed hits his shots.

    • You havent been watching him. The guy said he admired Fed or something to that effect; and to me hes playing like Fed, ie moving up to the net to attack quite often; hes an attacking player mixing in some good varieties.

      Imo, hes a better prospect than Shapo; he played with controlled aggression whilst Shapo tends to go for broke. Of course both still far away from becoming future big four kind of players, as they need to improve the precision of their shots and understanding how to make full use of the court the way the big four do.

      • Agreed. 5S has real deal potential, half of which is his poise and maturity for his age. Didn’t get tight in closing out matches.

        • Plus he was pushed hard but won all his matches in straight sets. I agree with you he comes across as exceptionally mature for a 19 yr old.

  7. Can’t see anything than a Rafa win! As it had been said here,I also doubt of the physical condition of Tsitsipas,he looked very tired towards the end of his SF match.It’s gonna be interesting to see how his BH holds up against the extreme spin of Rafa’s FH.We shall wait and see.
    Vamos King of Clay 👑🎾

  8. The tennis channel commies are saying that Tsitsipas csn’t camp out on Rafa’s backhand side. He has to also go for the forehand. The way Rsfa is hitting his backhand, this kid isn’t going to have much luck.

    Rafa gets the early break.

  9. Rafa gets the second break. The kid is getting schooled right now. I don’t think it’s nerves. I think he is just not up to hanging with Rafa on clay in a final. He’s done well to get through in a field where other took players are not now at their best. But this is Rafa!

  10. Rafa wins the first set. I think among the many advantages Rafa has in this match, is experience. He’s been in too many finals to count. There is something to be said for knowing what it’s like to play for a title.

  11. Stefanos got a game and started well in the first set – that’s about as much as he can do. I’m interested to see if he can dodge a bagel and get a game this 2nd set. Probably not, lol…Rafa so utterly dominant.

    Rafa is best ever. Period. Hopefully Stefanos can be mature and alert enough to learn some things in the middle of being outplayed and outsmarted. This final will be over so fast. PCB might have had an idea of how to get a few more games on clay but I don’t know. The only person who can slow down Rafa is Rafa – and he’s smarter than ever – also he just plays so confident and trusts himself.

    Agree with Kevin about this clay season. 😀

      • Wow, thanks Hawkie! I rarely dare post about a Rafa match. But I was watching this one. I didn’t watch Goffin or any other match this Tournament.

        Rafa is too far beyond anyone. But it was interesting to watch the faced of the Tsitsipas family. Oh my. Good ru speech from Tsitsipas.

        Congrats Rafa, Hawk, and Rafans!

  12. Poor Stefanos, even when he has a chance to win a break point he’s too shaky now. Rafa didn’t exactly serve well that game. Stefanos had to be thinking well of himself – as good on clay and having a shot before the match, I imagine. Now he knows more about how far he is away.

  13. Vamos Rafa!!!

    Should be great exp for young Tsitsi. Really hope he’s not another flash in the pan. The tour needs young guys like him. (Oh, LOL, the commentator just referred to Rafa as the King of Spain.) Playing the King in a final should be something he’ll tell his grandkids about.

  14. So happy for Rafa, one more title, at least another two more weeks at no.1 and more importantly, he’s simply playing very well and yet there’s still room for improvement (his first serve)!

    As expected, Tsitsipas is simply no match for Rafa, still has many things to learn and to improve on, but a good start for reaching a 500 event final.

    • Absolutely, Al. Awesome showing for Stefanos. And agree with what others have said about his poise in being able to win so many matches against good players here. Hopefully he continues to improve. Seems a nice kid, and great for Greece!

  15. As I expected, Stefanos had almost no chance. Only player in this tournament with the goods to beat Nadal on clay is Goffin, and then only when he stays aggressive and plays his very best.

    Congrats to Nadal. Let’s (non-Nadal fans) hope that the field can give him more of a challenge in the remainder of the clay season. Maybe Novak will come out of hibernation; he looks like he could use a meal or two.

    • With the goods? Still he lost the second set 6-0, what goods he has? He just couldn’t keep up with Rafa for a whole match, unless Rafa is playing sub par tennis.

      Come on, how many can beat Rafa on clay when Rafa is playing top class tennis? Even Djoko had a hard time as the match went on. Rafa has his formidable BH now in addition to his lethal FH, whilst in 2011 he’s fully dependent on his FH when his BH would break down if under consistent attack.

      It’s harder to beat Rafa now than in the past few years because Rafa has now improved his BH and his second serve. His movement is still quick and he’s now more varied in his play, able to move inside the court to shorten points as and when he deems fit.

      • lucky,

        I could not say it any better! Stefanos was just clueless out there in his first final. I said that experience counts a lot. He just did not know how to counter Rafa’s tactics. He had a nice run in Barcelona, beating some top ten players along the way. But he did not have any answers playing Rafa.

        Stefanos has to continue to work. One tournament does not a player make. We will see if he is for real or not as time goes on. He has to build on this result. His ranking will improve quite a bit.

        Hopefully Stefanos will learn from the King if Clay!

      • I agree with you, Lucky. We can obviously never know for sure, but I would take this current Rafa all day, forever when it comes to clay- even against a peak Djokovic. Especially in Best-of-five. If it was nearly impossible to beat Rafa at RG in the past, then I don’t even know what to call facing him now at RG…

      • As well as all that, he has a massive physical defensive advantage esp on clay. The longer the match, the harder it is to beat that.
        Unless of course, he meets another Terminator who beats him at his own game…

        • Rafa need not even defend too much these days as he’s shortening points by moving into the court more often. If you ask me, it’s his offensive skills these days that’s helping him to win his matches relatively quickly. I credit his BH and second serve for helping him becoming more offensive even on clay – he hardly needs to run around to hit his FH at his BH corner; and his second serve is so good now that he’s winning a high % of it and opponents no longer see it as a weakness which they can attack.

          His defensive skills is still there and he could call upon that anytime he wishes or needs it, like in his first match here vs RCB.

          • Oh, not forgetting his ROS on clay is getting ridiculous, winning 58 or 52% of his ROS, that means his opponents don’t even have any advantage in their own service games.

            Rafa is also hitting with depth so far this clay season, perhaps he’s physically fresh as he’s not playing many matches yet this season due to his injury break.

      • Yes, he didn’t keep it up. As I said above, I think part of that was fatigue and part was Nadal’s play. But I think a lot of it was simply mental. I didn’t see that Goffin was incapable of continuing the way he did in the first few games. Same with Wawrinka in last year’s FO final. Both simply gave up on the only game plan that had a chance of working, which was to play ultra aggressive tennis.

        I think what happens to some of these players is that they hit some great shots against Nadal that come back with interest and/or are outright winners, and they naturally get discouraged. They revert to conservative play, simply trying to keep the ball in the court, and then they’re totally lost. What Goffin needed to do was to continue *trying* to hit flat, hard, and deep, and make Nadal hit great shots over and over. Maybe Rafa would have done it; it’s entirely possible. But that was Goffin’s best, indeed only, chance; and he gave up on it far too early, imo. It’s a lack of self-belief.

        • He didn’t give up, he’s just not capable of playing that way for a full match against the greatest player on clay! You’re asking too much from him!

          Rafa is playing better tennis now than even his 2013 imo, at least so far this clay season, and not even a fit Djoko could stay with him imo; you expect Goffin to play better than Djoko?

          Sod beat a subpar Rafa at FO2009; that Rafa was no where near this current version, and people expect a Sod like performance to beat a fit and healthy Rafa on clay when Rafa is playing one of his best if not the best tennis on clay?

          Come on, you just have to admit that when someone is playing at that high level, no one comes close to beating him ; it’s just like Djoko at AO2016 SF and F; Cilic at USO2014 SF or Fed at Wimbledon 2015 SF, for examples.

          • Maybe Goffin wasn’t capable of playing that way for 5 sets, but he gave up on the strategy after 4-5 games. (Same with Wawa at RG last year). That wasn’t fatigue, and it wasn’t all Nadal’s play, which had actually been good from the start. Imo, it’s a lack of self-belief, which is not the same thing (at all) as giving up or tanking.

  16. I like this Greek boy, one to follow for sure. He does seem to have his head in the proper place, unlike other youngsters in the tour

    • This is not a weak era! There are players who have had injuries and are not at their best. Novak says he’s healthy, but mentally he’s not there yet. Murray will be coming back from hip surgery. Wawrinka was out with injury. Nishi is trying to come back from a wrist injury. Thiem is coming back from a knee injury and not playing anywhere near as well as he did in last year’s clay season, Zverev has also not been in great form.

      Let’s at least deal with facts. There are too many great players to talk about a weak era!

        • Please give me a break about this nonsense of a weak era!

          The bias can honestly be so obvious that it’s laughable!

          Keep on winning Rafa!

          • Its weak era in my honest opinion, else i cant comprehend how two players: 31 year old and 36 Year old are dominating the sport . They are not just winning , but decimating the opposition .

            Lost Gen after Novak and Andy never won any Slams .

      • Nny!…Who cares weak era or not?Rafa is still ROOOOCCKKKKK on clay!He ROCKED 13 years ago,and he will ROCK till he retires 2,3,4 years from now…He ROCKED them all even when the elit & top players were still there & healthy & at their peak[with the exception of 2009/15]…and he still ROCK even his body is damaged all over the place….So,who cares weak era or not…The result is all that matters…

        • MA,

          I just have to say that I love you!!! ❤️

          Brilliant post! You are SO right on!

          Rafa has rocked on clay all through his career!

          You said it all so well that there is nothing else I can say!

          It’s just too bad that some have to try and spoil it with their silly comments about a weak era! They just can’t take it when Rafa dominates on clay!

          Weak era, strong era, whatever era!

          Rafa ROCKS!!!
          😍

          • Nny!…I just have to say that i love u too!!!hahahaha….
            I just feel that it’s not fair to play a record ‘Weak Era’ atm or any other moment regarding Rafa especially on clay…

            Didn’t he proved many times that he can challenge them all even the era is still strong?He even challenged ‘The Boss’ on grass at Wimby 2006/7..and finally insert his authority in 2008 there?

            Some say too that he won USO last year when the field was so weak…but then,Rog[the HC specialist] was still there & still No 1…not to mention the littered of other HC specialists too…and in 2013 when he defeated the mighty Novak who still at his peak at that time…I just don’t understand this weak era thingy relating to Rafa that’s all….

  17. Weak or strong era, Rafa still dominates; no one can deny that as he has been dominating on clay for more than a decade. And, he is getting even better now – better BH, better ROS, better second serve! No one can deny he has improved in those skills, weak era or not!

  18. Guys , I dont mind Rafa winning . He is best ever on Clay . But he should be challenged atleast . He has not lost one set and none of his sets hasnt even extended to a tiebreak .

    I personally prefer , rafa being challenged and then coming out on top . Some clay wins vs Novak , Roger ( at their Peak ) stay in memory or even Vs Gulbis or Daniel Brands when they bash the ball as hard as possible . Not thrashing of players who are physically compromised or mentally not evolved.

  19. I dont see Rafa losing any match this clay season . But i want him to be challenged and come out on top like the five set win vs Isner in RG 1st Round in 2011 or 9-7 5th set win vs Novak in 2013 French Open . Else clay season is becoming a Groundhog day , where Rafa thrashes opponents 6-0 , 6-1 day in and day out

    • Why the worry? It’s not his fault but the fault of others. Rafa as usual plays as well as he could regardless of the surfaces, it’s up to the others to challenge him.

      Epic matches won’t happen all the time, or else they won’t be called epic if they’re so common.

      • lucky,

        You make an excellent point about epic matches not being epic if they happened more often! Well said!

        Rsfa plays his game no matter what. But I am particularly annoyed by these attempts to demean what Rafa is doing when he has just come back from injury like other players. So how come Rafa can be playing at such a high level and the others aren’t? Rafs was out for two months. He only had two DC matches before the clay season started. So he should have been at a bigger disadvantage.

        It’s just another example of Rafa’s greatness.

    • Sekarpathyo8…I don’t mind Rafa win easily in all his matches…Coz from there we can get an answer to many questions that i admit haunted me & i bet many Rafans too before he made his 1st appearance in DC…

      When he won easily,to me that shows his level of confidence be at the highest…Also telling us that he’s not worried about his health anymore…Besides,won easily can save his energy as much as he can…I’m sure he wants to win again in Madrid & Rome…and the most precious of all..win at RG…so he can retain his ranking & get away from Rog a little bit…

      • MA,

        More great points! You are on fire! Rafa fans fidn’t know how he would play in MC. He came in lacking in match play. But once we saw him playing, then we realized that he was healthy again and feeling confident.

        I think it is more evidence of his greatness that he has been able to gone back so strong after yet another injury. That should be celebrated. To me there is nothing boring or snooze-fest worthy about Rafa Viking back and playing so well!

        • I agree its not Rafa’s fault. He doesnt control the quality of his opponents . He is giving his best against in every match . But that doesnt take away from the fact the opponents are weak .

        • Hehehe….Thanks Nny!…When he was injured his hip at AO,i thought..’oh no!not again!’…how am i supposed to live in the coming months?’…But,survived..we did..i was very anxious to see how he’s gonna fare in DC..how his hip?How much his tennis will suffered this time around..And to see him sooooo amazing in his 1st match after came back….whooooo!…the feeling was undescribable!…

          And last week when he tored all his opponents in MC like he’s not injured at all….oh my God!…Nny!…i want to cry & laugh & rolling on the floor all at the same time!!!…Dear God!…THAT IS OUR RAFA!!!…Let’s enjoy this happy moments Nny!…coz i can feel come grass season…we’re going to take a backseat to allow Roger to do his usual’dance’!…

          Vamos Rafa!!

    • Well, we’ll see. One thing is for sure. The clay season so far, and especially Nadal’s matches, have mostly been a snore-fest. Lucky’s right of course that it’s hardly Rafa’s fault. But that doesn’t make it any less boring to watch.

      • Two exceptions: the first sets against Klizan and Goffin had some great tennis, meaning both players played well. Otherwise, nada.

        • Not a snore fest as far as Rafa fans are concerned; it’s just like we feeling Fed winning on grass is a snore fest while his fans think it’s great to watch!

          I always find Fed winning at Halle esp is a bore fest, when these players played like crap to lose to him when they’re competitive vs others.

        • First set Klizan? It’s a beat down by Rafa, 6-0! I think you meant the second set. You should have watched Rafa vs Carella Buena in R2; that match was competitive when Rafa’s opponent played attacking tennis the whole match; still, Rafa beat him 6-4, 6-4. He’s the only one who won more than five games in a match against Rafa.

          Rafa can handle anyone and I doubt Goffin would beat Rafa even if Goffin could sustain his level of play. To me Klizan played better in the second set than Goffin did his first set; Rafa was still able to come from behind to win the set, not allowing Klizan to win a set even when Klizan had set points!

        • Wimbledon last year had some great matches to watch, but none of them were Roger’s. Not his fault but there it is. I agree that tennis badly misses those of the usual Big Five that are injured and more competition from the second half of the Top Ten.

          But you didn’t find any of the non-Nadal matches interesting? Goffin came back from the dead several times. Klizan’s “resurrection” was interesting. Tsitsipas had a great run and is a promising young player. Maybe it’s just you that doesn’t care for clay court tennis?

          • Exactly Ramara. I watched some of Tsitsipas matches and found those interesting; he’s an attacking player and willing to mix in some net play, good on clay court despite not playing a traditional clay court game.

            The Dimi vs Jaziri match was one of the best, the final set TB was fantastic and dramatic! Rafa’s R2 match was competitive; Klizan vs Djoko was not bad too.

            It need not always be about Rafa’s matches when there’re other players playing on clay. Mannarino vs PCB was not bad either; Tsitsipas beating Schwartzman, ARV, Thiem and PCB was certainly very impressive, not unlike a 18 yo Rafa playing on clay.

            Goffin struggling through but beating everyone going the distance each time until he lost to Rafa, I thought he’s pretty impressive and I don’t feel that he lacked belief. I thought he’s a fighter alright and deserved his place in the top ten.

            I’m disappointed about Schwartzman though, for losing meekly to Tsitsipas 6-1,6-2 I think, something must be wrong with him I feel.

          • Ramara,

            You make an excellent point! Brilliant! That’s when you realize that it’s just bias. You will never hear Fed fans complaining about him winning easily. They just say it’s more evidence of his greatness.

            The hypocrisy here is something else!

  20. Fedfans complaining of a weak era or boring tennis now is par for the course.

    Not unlike the boring Weak Era pre-2008 but they don’t like to hear that. Of course, if only Roddick and Blake believed in themselves and used bigger racquets, Fed wouldn’t have won all of those slams.

    What goes around comes around.

  21. Federers playing in this weak era..no Murray ,no peak Djoko.
    But has decent record against resurgent Nadal…
    I don’t think anyone would have beaten this Nadal on clay,weak era or not.

    • Agreed. Peak Djokovic would make it competitive and could win the odd match. Rafa is playing at a very high level not unlike his best years on clay. Same for Fed on hard court. Rafa hasn’t shown his best in hard court since 2013 in my opinion.

      • I think Rafa can play as well (like his 2013) on the HCs this year (if he’s not injured) because:
        1) he has his formidable BH now;
        2) his second serve is a weapon;
        3) he should be less fatigued compared to his 2017 as he has obviously played much fewer matches (at least up to this point) – 34 matches in 2017 vs 17 matches this year so far.

        As long as Rafa plays more aggressive all court tennis, I feel he can have very good results on the HCs despite having Fed, Delpo, Cilic, and a few others who are great on the HCs.

        • Agreed Lucky. He has his confidence back now which took a long time to recover due to lack of play at the end of 2016 and then extended due to injuries in the latter part of 2017.

  22. I think as player fans, we want our player to win 6-0 , 6-1 . Even when the player does win with bagel and breadsticks , we might want him to win Golden set . But for casual tennis fans , it will be snore fest ( borrowing the word from one of the posters here) .

  23. Again, I make no claim that this is a weak era, on clay or otherwise. Nadal is dominating on clay, and that’s great for him and his fans. I just find it boring to watch, for the most part. I honestly don’t mind seeing Nadal winning a lot, and when he’s pushed it’s a lot of fun to watch. But for whatever reason, most of his competition hasn’t been up to the task even to push him for long.

    Again, Federer has never dominated on other surfaces to the extent that Nadal has on clay. Nevertheless, his lopsided matches can also be boring; for example, Fed’s win over Cilic this year at AO was a lot more exciting to watch than last year’s Wimby final.

    It’s true that there have been some other clay matches not involving Nadal that have been exciting, so I exaggerated there.

    • Of course you do; there were many exciting matches yet you not being a Rafa fan chose to concentrate on Rafa’s matches and ignored the other matches!

      • Yup. Tennis was boring with few exceptions from 2000-2007. Exceptions include Rafa on clay. Sampras winning his last USO was enabled by The Weak Era pre Fed domination as was Thomas Johanssons AO title. Sampras still had to play great tennis but his level then wouldn’t have won him the USO in the 90s IMO.

  24. Rafa is dominating clay for 14 years. Fed is dominating grass for 10-11 years. More than decade of a tennis can’t be a weak era.

    • I think you’d have to say that Fed has been fairly dominant on grass at least as long (and probably longer) as Nadal has on clay, since Fed’s first Wimby title was in 2003. But he’s never been as dominant on grass as Nadal is on clay.

      Agree of course that “weak era” talk is mostly nonsense. What’s going on in both cases is individual dominance by one guy.

      • Fed wasn’t dominant on grass after 2007, when he had to share the glory with Djoko (3 titles since 2007), Rafa (2 titles), Murray (2 titles) and Fed himself winning 3 (2009, 2012, 2017). So, Fed’s dominance on grass was from 2003-2009, losing 2008 title to Rafa.

    • Fed not dominant for 10-11 years, when he was not winning for many years since 2009; winning two Wimbledon in eight years from 2010 to 2017 was hardly any dominance.

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