Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Monfils, Raonic vs. Bautista Agut

Coming off a five-setter against Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal will continue his Australian Open campaign against Gael Monfils on Monday. The fourth-round schedule also includes a showdown between Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut.

(6) Gael Monfils vs. (9) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Monfils will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in round four of the Australian Open on Monday. The head-to-head series is being dominated 12-2 by Nadal, who has taken four in a row at Monfils’ expense since suffering a 2012 loss in Doha. They most recently squared off last season in the Monte-Carlo Masters final, which Nadal won 7-5, 5-7, 6-0.

If Monfils wanted to avoid the 14-time Grand Slam champion, he almost got his wish. After Nadal made routine, straight-set work of Florian Mayer and Marcos Baghdatis, he needed five sets to survive Alexander Zverev 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 on Saturday in what has been an upset-filled event. Not too much unlike the ninth-ranked Spaniard, who missed much of last season with a wrist problem, Monfils is often an injury-plagued question mark. The sixth-ranked Frenchman did not play at all this month prior to his arrival in Melbourne, but he has put concerns to rest with convincing defeats of Jiri Vesely, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Even though a new, more focused version of Monfils has been on display since the start of 2016, it remains to be seed if he can keep his head on straight for the entirety of a best-of-five date with Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (3) Milos Raonic

Raonic was the last player in the draw to be perfect on serve–not getting broken a single time. That distinction ended on Saturday when he dropped his third set to Gilles Simon, but the Canadian still prevailed 6-2, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3. Raonic preceded that victory with straight-set wins over Dustin Brown and Gilles Muller. Thus continues a solid start to the season for the world No. 3, who beat Nadal in Brisbane before losing to a red-hot Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals.

Up next for Raonic is a fifth career meeting with Bautista Agut, who is a hopeless 0-4 in the head-to-head series. The 14th-ranked Spaniard is 1-8 in total sets, having taken only a single tiebreaker during a 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5) loss at the Shanghai Masters in 2015. One streak will continue on Monday–either Bautista Agut’s futility against Raonic or his perfection in 2017. He is 7-0 with a title in Chennai and wins this fortnight over Guido Pella, Yoshihito Nishioka, and David Ferrer. Unless Raonic has a terrible serving day, baseline rallies should be kept to a minimum and the third seed will likely maintain his mastery of Bautista Agut.

Pick: Raonic in 4

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24 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Monfils, Raonic vs. Bautista Agut

  1. Rafa wasted so many BP chances and got me worried when he served for the set. He cant afford to do that against Raonic, if he wins this match.

  2. Very disappointed with how Rafa played his last service game, I mean he showed fear of Monfils groundstrokes and played so tentatively! He better be careful and up his level and intensity, too much fear and respect for his opponents will back fire on him!

  3. It’s like he is nervous about reaching a slam QF after failing so many times, it’s so hard to watch! I mean why he gives Monfils so much space to work his serve? Monfils just serves hard and many times Rafa hits a weak return or worse, mishit it. After so many failed/weak returns he still didn’t want to adjust his return positions!

  4. Monfils gets lucky and gets the break thanks to a net. 3-2 Monfils. Oh God please not another 5-setter! Really annoyed with Rafa to be honest :/

  5. Please Rafa, please win this match, don’t let the detractors say that you can’t win on fast HC, please calm down and returns serve properly!

  6. Rafa’s BP conversion is just so poor; he really need to do something with his ROS. He’s allowing Monfils getting all the cheap points! It’s really worrying the way he plays now.

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