Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Monfils, Raonic vs. Bautista Agut

Coming off a five-setter against Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal will continue his Australian Open campaign against Gael Monfils on Monday. The fourth-round schedule also includes a showdown between Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut.

(6) Gael Monfils vs. (9) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Monfils will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in round four of the Australian Open on Monday. The head-to-head series is being dominated 12-2 by Nadal, who has taken four in a row at Monfils’ expense since suffering a 2012 loss in Doha. They most recently squared off last season in the Monte-Carlo Masters final, which Nadal won 7-5, 5-7, 6-0.

If Monfils wanted to avoid the 14-time Grand Slam champion, he almost got his wish. After Nadal made routine, straight-set work of Florian Mayer and Marcos Baghdatis, he needed five sets to survive Alexander Zverev 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 on Saturday in what has been an upset-filled event. Not too much unlike the ninth-ranked Spaniard, who missed much of last season with a wrist problem, Monfils is often an injury-plagued question mark. The sixth-ranked Frenchman did not play at all this month prior to his arrival in Melbourne, but he has put concerns to rest with convincing defeats of Jiri Vesely, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Even though a new, more focused version of Monfils has been on display since the start of 2016, it remains to be seed if he can keep his head on straight for the entirety of a best-of-five date with Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (3) Milos Raonic

Raonic was the last player in the draw to be perfect on serve–not getting broken a single time. That distinction ended on Saturday when he dropped his third set to Gilles Simon, but the Canadian still prevailed 6-2, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3. Raonic preceded that victory with straight-set wins over Dustin Brown and Gilles Muller. Thus continues a solid start to the season for the world No. 3, who beat Nadal in Brisbane before losing to a red-hot Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals.

Up next for Raonic is a fifth career meeting with Bautista Agut, who is a hopeless 0-4 in the head-to-head series. The 14th-ranked Spaniard is 1-8 in total sets, having taken only a single tiebreaker during a 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5) loss at the Shanghai Masters in 2015. One streak will continue on Monday–either Bautista Agut’s futility against Raonic or his perfection in 2017. He is 7-0 with a title in Chennai and wins this fortnight over Guido Pella, Yoshihito Nishioka, and David Ferrer. Unless Raonic has a terrible serving day, baseline rallies should be kept to a minimum and the third seed will likely maintain his mastery of Bautista Agut.

Pick: Raonic in 4

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27 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Monfils, Raonic vs. Bautista Agut

  1. I hope for no surprises here, I’d like to see a Raonic Nadal quarterfinal. That would be really interesting considering how chances of winning the tournament increased for both of them.

  2. I have no predictions at all, Monfils Vs Nadal is completely uncertain, I’d say it’s 50/50 despite previous stats.
    Raonic seems favorite for the other one but RBA will give him a run for his money, I think.

  3. With so many ultra upsets(djokovic, Murray, kerber) it be great if monfils wins. Nadal has lost to much less quality players already and yet people here are all backing him regardless.

    • Nadal is close to being back to his best and is riding the crowd like a madman.

      I think he take care of all 5 of those players in 3 or 4 right now.

  4. I think Raonic will get the win in 4 sets.

    I think Monfils will give Rafa more of a match this time. But Rafa should be feeling some real confidence after his win over Zverev. Rafa played some outstanding tennis and if he keeps it up then he should get the win in 3 or 4 sets.

  5. After a grueling 5 set match for Nadal … I feel the longer this one goes, the more it’ll play in Monfils’ favor. Raonic is showing no major flaws at the moment and should win fairly easy.

    Monfils in 5, Raonic in 3

  6. What a waste for Agut; he was 4-1 up in the TB but managed to lose it! He had Raonic on the rope in the TB but still lost it in the end. Raonic ‘fighted’ (fought) and won.

  7. Rafa has played some great aggressive forehands and backhands this tournament but his ‘average groundstroke’ is not penetrative enough yet. He takes a while before he pulls the trigger and drops quite a few balls short in the process. He would need to do loads of running and be on the backfoot against aggressive players.
    Rafa must increase the pace on his ‘average groundstroke’. Let’s see how it goes in this match.

    • Exactly, that first set was a waste; the third set, he had one lousy service game at the end and that’s it, lost the set. Really wasteful.

    • The 1st set could also have gone 4-0 for Milos, but he wasted several break points (I think 10..)…
      And then in the 2nd, the canadian wasted again the break advantage and lost his service twice in a row with only double faults and unforced errors.
      I thought it was gonna go for the spaniard. If Raonic doesn’t play better in the QF, Nadal won’t forgive as much as RBA did.

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