Rafael Nadal headlines the Day 1 schedule at the Australian Open, where a tough opening test comes in the form of Jack Draper. Another marquee matchup pits Borna Coric against up-and-coming Czech Jiri Lehecka.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Jack Draper
There is plenty of both good news and bad news for Nadal heading into the first Grand Slam of 2023. On one hand, the 36-year-old Spaniard is the defending champion of this tournament and he should be well-rested following the offseason. On other hand, Nadal has struggled physically since winning the first two majors of 2022. The world No. 2 is 0-2 so far this year, with United Cup losses to Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur–both in tight three-setters.
Up first for Nadal on Monday is Draper, a 21-year-old Brit who has climbed to 40th in the rankings. Draper fared decently at the two Adelaide warmup events, losing to Karen Khachanov in the second round and then reaching the semifinals before falling to eventual champion Soonwoo Kwon. This is a dangerous opening matchup for Nadal, but in a best-of-five situation he should have both a mental and physical edge over an inexperienced opponent.
Pick: Nadal in 4
Jiri Lehecka vs. (21) Borna Coric
Coric and Lehecka will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Monday. Lehecka started to make a name for himself in 2022, engineering a run to the NextGen ATP Finals title match and finishing well inside the top 100. The 21-year-old Czech is off to a strong start in 2023, with a win over Alexander Zverev at the ATP Cup followed by successful qualification and a second-round effort in Auckland (lost to eventual runner-up Norrie in three sets).
This is a good opportunity for Lehecka, as Coric has cooled off a bit since capturing the Cincinnati title in very unexpected fashion last summer. The 23rd-ranked Croat also suited up at the United Cup earlier this month, when he posted wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Arthur Rinderknech to go along with a loss at the hands of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Coric is almost always a question mark from a physical standpoint and often has problems in best-of-five matches; in fact, in seven trips to the Aussie Open he has lost in the opening round five times. An upset for Lehecka would not come as much of a surprise.
Pick: Lehecka in 5
WWW?
rafa in a tough 4; Coric in 4.
I have Rafa in 4
Hey guys, happy new year to all!! Hope all is well.
Rafa look good, his game is crisp so far but he’s grunting a hell of a lot! Lol!!!
Vamos, Rafa!!
Nadal serving much better than he did at the United Cup.
Cheryl how do you rate Rafas performance..any idea how much the serve speeds were ?
Reading on Twitter that fh n bh Cc were a bit off but they also clicked at critical times n the fh dtl was decent too
Rafa in 4 it was! No, I didn’t see the match, just woke up and checked the score. Gonna try to get back to sleep now. Vamos Rafa!
I never like it when the serve speeds are not in mph. They meant nothing to me. But Rafa did serve better in his first match. I think the communes said he was serving 80% in the first set.
I don’t know why anyone would pick McDonald over Rafa. These next two rounds should be doable for Rafa, even with him not being in good form right now. Every win will help his confidence.
I don’t go along with what commentators say. I don’t know Gill Gross. I don’t think it’s that surprising to hear that Rafa seems weak. It us true that he got a break in the fourth set when Draper started cramping. I did not see him cramping in the third set. I thought he was probably physically not able to hang with Rafa after going deep in Adelaide. That is where Rafa has the advantage with his experience and physical strength. I am not sure about this so-called decline in physicality after the first set. Rafa has not played best of five set matches. I usually don’t like to read too much into a first round match. Rafa just has to win, not play brilliant tennis.
I would agree with this. In terms of speeds, it was 113 mph average for first serve and 93 mph for second.
VR,
Thanks for providing serve speeds in mph. I think 113 is slower fir his first serve average. But I have not been keeping up with his matches recently. I know he has been losing matches recently. I think 93 isn’t bad for his second serve, but I remember him going as high as the low 100’s last year.
Rafas first serve speed is average 183 n second is 151..not sure how below that is from his pre ab injury days fastest serve is 198
The 46 unforced errors is a lot ..needs to clean it up…41 winners ..
29 of those unforced errors came in set 2 n 3 both of which he played poorly..he played very well set 1,actually both played very well set 1…rafas numbers r good in set 1 n 4 but set 4 can’t read much into it as draper was cramping
A win is a win!!😀
Very relieved.
I recently discovered Gill Gross who i think is about the best commentator out there. He said that Draper starting to cramp at the beginning of the third set was a massive factor in Rafa winning. He commented on the decline in Rafa’s physicality after the first set. In his last 3 matches he has won the first set and lost the second.
He commented on how weak Rafa’s confidence is and how it affects the fh. He says Rafa hit something like 10- 15 awful.fhs and most were at pressure moments such as break points.
Although Nakashima is out he said he thought that McDonald could beat him if he doesn’t raise his level.
All very concerning because the points he made are exactly the ones I thought could happen. Except for the physicality one. But the whole relationship between Rafa’s confidence and his fh we’ve seen so many times.
I thought Gill looked depressed talking about Rafa!
Yes. The lack of match play and the resultant errant forehand is nothing new. I think Nadal would have been better off playing Adelaide rather than the United Cup. A couple matches against lower ranked players is how he works his way into a season after a lengthy layoff. He didn’t have that chance at the United Cup.
I do not think McDonald will beat him.
That’s exactly what I said on another thread Cheryl! Ie he would have been way better playing a tournament like last year where he could play himself into form than playing United cup.
I also really didn’t want him to play Paris and the wtf, especially as Mery had just given birth, as I was pretty convinced it was going to be a disaster and would do him more harm than good. I mean, he always struggles in the Paris masters! I don’t believe he gets anything out of these runs of losses and they really were predictable after the struggle with the ab and the playing indoors on a fast court.
Hope you are right about McDonald. Doesn’t cheer me up that a commentator as astute as Gill could think it was a possibility.
Regarding the fh. If Rafa is struggling mentally it goes haywire. For me confidence rather than matchplay is the key factor for his fh.
Ah…but he gets confidence from the match play. One feeds the other. 🙂
Not if he loses a lot!!😀
Amy, yes I have been watching Gil for a long while now…….he’s quite knowledgeable but he does get it wrong sometimes…….but he’s human after all. I watched Rafa play and I feel that he looked fine save for a few brain cramps here and there!! Draper gave Rafa a very good work out which is exactly what Rafa needs. He needs to be able from early to detect what’s not working and what he needs to improve on. At this stage in his career where age plays such a major factor Rafa no longer has the luxury of getting away with “escape artism” like in his younger days!! He needs to literally play his way into form, and even if that means spraying a few errors in the early rounds then that’s what it has to be. Rafa knows how to win, he’s been playing for over 20 yrs!! He has a fantastic tennis brain and he doesn’t need to play lights out in these early rounds except it he absolutely has to, or else he might run the risk of getting injured and then our conversations will be a whole lot different.
Rafa looks in great shape, well rested, and I just want him to play his game and enjoy himself!! Everything else should fall into place. Vamos, Rafa!!
It’s very difficult to comment on a match you haven’t watched Mona! But I have a great deal of respect for Gill and when he says that Rafa’s level \and confidence was “concerning” and that his confidence was ” severely wounded” then I worry.
What also worries me a lot is the decline in his movement according to Gill after the first set.
Gill is not alone in making these observations. I have seen them elsewhere, or variants of them.
Don’t know what to think.😒😒
Oh and I do respect your opinion a lot as well mona dear!
Thank you and let’s hope you are right!
Hi amy!..how r u?About Rafa…u know, my tv commentator(Mark Petchey and (i’m not sure the other one) also said he was very surprised to c Rafa with his error strewn play,sometimes making an error that he usually made with his eyes closed!..the timing of his shots sometimes also very off too..at one time when he was ready to received jack’s 2nd serve,he asked Moya where should he stand?..and the commentator said ‘and we thought when he got 22 slams u will know about this things right’?He also said he never seen Rafa like this before!..Never!
So,when Gil & u talking about the lack of confidence that Rafa don’t have atm,i agree..i feels this is a bit similar to 2015 episode where he also suffered a series of injuries that destroyed his confidence & self belief completely!..but compared to 2015,this time i like seeing his body language..still very positive & still has spring in his step even tho in 2nd,3rd sets his play was terrible!..but honestly,i think he will bounce back in the next couple of matches..gud thing too he ‘only’ will face McKenzie McDonald in the next rd,so he can play without too much pressure(i think) & build his confidence back slowly from there..just hope he will cut his hour on court ASAP!He will face a string of youngsters soon!..3hrs or more will not be good!
good to hear from you Mira !
I understand the concerns Rafa fans have here. He looked horrendous in some phases of the match and his serve definitely has questions marks all over it.
The part I think is being blown out of proportion a bit is Rafa’s struggle from the baseline. Let’s not forget that the version of Rafa who is lacking in confidence, by nature, feels hesitant to step up and take control. He is nervous, tight and this is reflected in his court positioning. His instinct most of the times has been to increase the margins and keep balls in play and not have the ‘courage’ to flatten out strokes so reverts to higher net clearance. Did we really see this in the match against Draper? At least I did not see it often enough. He started the match playing rather confidently and the stats show you he played a clean set with controlled aggression (15 winners and 10 UE). It did get pretty nasty in terms of UE’s in sets 2 and 3 but I was still pleased to see he still kept trying to stand his ground and not give up the baseline.
How many winners did Rafa hit against Shapo in 5 sets last year? 38 winners. How many against Khachonov in 4 sets last year? 39 winners. Of course he commit fewer mistakes but hitting 41 winners in 4 sets is in itself a good sign and an indication of Rafa’s intent. I know the stats got a bit skewed because of set 4 but I still he did a good job penetrating the court, which is very important with these new balls not so conducive to spin.
Cutting UE’s on his forehand (which I agree can sometimes be reminiscent of a bad phase for Rafa) vs. not being able to step up to dictate play, I’d definitely take the former any day.
Think it’s a bit premature to rubbish off Rafa’s baseline game. Let’s see how it evolves against his next opponent.
The serve, to me, remains the biggest concerns. Cleaning up his forehand is kind of bound to happen with more matches and wins.
Hi mira!! Very good to see 👀 you!
It’s very hard to comment on a match you haven’t seen. I am definitely very worried about his confidence. I saw footage of his match against de minaur when Rafa literally said to Marc ” why am I so lacking in confidence “! And this reminded me of the match against Fog at USO when he was saying to Moya that he was feeling very anxious.
Like you, I have started to be very concerned that his old anxiety is starting up again because in 2015 it was brought on by recurrent injuries. I don’t think it is as bad as 2015 but am still concerned it may be there.
I haven’t seen any of his live matches this year.
Mira ( and vr) can I please ask you to comment on the point Gill made about the decrease in his movement from the beginning of the second set with this becoming a theme. It’s clear Gill thinks Rafa is compromised physically. Does it look like that to u?! I mean, if so, that would be very worrying. Because if it is physical it can’t be fixed.
I am very glad to see you mira!😀 was thinking about you yesterday and was going to write to you soon. I find it easier to moan about Rafa to you than I do to others! He is a bit of a fiend with all the misery he puts us through.!😀
I note all of you are upbeat he can come through.😀
hey Amy, I would definitely wait for Rafa to play at least two more matches to really gauge his movement. His movement sometimes look a bit sluggish but once he starts winning more matches and long rallies, he begins to find that ‘explosiveness’ in his movement. I just think one match here isn’t enough to worry too much but totally agree there are definitely areas of concern and we all need to put our x-ray visions on to see how we evolves.
I really liked the fact that Rafa hit 40+ winners and did not move away from the baseline. That aspect doesn’t sound like someone so deficient in confidence. To me it looks like someone who is on his way to regaining confidence. Does he have enough time to make that happen? I don’t know.
Come on, Rafa. Please give us an improved performance in round 2!
@vr,
Did you watch Rafa’s after match presser on the AO site? He really winced when he sat down. Wonder if his knees are playing up after all the intense practices. He’s said it’s more than he’s been able to do in many years.
@Ramara, I did not know this. You might be right – since his foot is now much better, he might be spending a bit too long on the practice courts and potentially straining his knees. Fingers crossed he stays okay.
Hey back amy & vr!..i hope u guys don’t mind i put u two in the same room!..haha..
Oh yeah vr!..many congrats for yor youtube chanel!..i already became one of yor subscribers!..Vamosrafa for vamosrafa!😀
Btw..yeah,i also very relieved Rafa managed to create many winner’s in that match..that means he tried to be aggressive & maybe he still in adjustment phase with the balls,that’s y the ue’s crept to 46 in the 1st match?Also he said the balls doesn’t get the same spin as usual & makes it more difficult to hit with the right spin..maybe tomorrow he will get a more easier match after more than 3 hrs getting friendly with miss dunlop yesterday!..let’s hope!
Amy!..i’m glad to be back here too!..sometimes it feels very relieved to be able to share the agony of being Rafans with other Rafans here..(not to mention got tortured by Rafa endlessly)d%&# him!😀..sshhh!..don’t tell rafa i cursed him amy!😁
About his physicality,i think it’s normal to be slow & not explosive like vr said after long lay off..i read many articles after yesterday’s match,but not found anyone mention about his physical..all they’re saying is his uncharacteristic errors that he made in the match..Mats Wilander even praised him bcoz as usual no matter how tough things can be for him,he always found a way to win..thats all amy!..don’t u worry k?Rafa seems fine to me..we will watch him closely in the next couple of matches which i predict he will win in 3 sets..Let’s c!…Vamos!..#23ispossible!!
Thanks very much for your kind words, Mira and for becoming a subscriber haha.
@agree with your commemts. All eyes on Rafa to show improvements. If he keeps faltering again, then we will know the problem is a bit more deep rooted.
Hey back amy!..not sure whether u already read this or not,but i think this article will answer about Rafa’s physicality that we talked yesterday..
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/127069/rafael-nadal-reveals-his-physical-shape-after-the-first-match/
His words at the bottom of the article answered our curiosity/question amy!..and we were right!confidence playing a big part in his game!..going into Draper’s match with 6 losses out of 7 certainly created a lot of doubt in his mind..that’s y we saw him a bit sluggish @ slow..but i’m pretty sure he will improve more in the coming matches( insyaallah!)..a win over Draper is a blessing!
@amy and @Sanju, just FYI I replied to your comments on the other thread on tournament predictions.
Thanks very much vr! Will go look. I may not be able to reply for a while.
And by the way, medvedev looks very good!!!! He’s in a serious mission!! Rafa always gets the draw if the land mines!!! Novak will face virtually nobody in his path to the finals! Sigh!!!
Rafa is in trouble right from the beginning. Down two breaks already.
Rafa got one break back.
Rafa lost the first set. I don’t know what is going on with him.
MCDonald is up 2-0 in the second set.
Rafa is trying to hang in there 2-1.