Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Verdasco, Nadal vs. Mayer

Novak Djokovic will not have any time to ease into his Australian Open title defense, as he has to face Fernando Verdasco right off the bat on Tuesday. Verdasco’s 2016 first-round opponent, Rafael Nadal, has a date with Florian Mayer.

Fernando Verdasco vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Last year it was Rafael Nadal. This year it’s Djokovic. Verdasco cannot catch a break with his Australian Open first-round draws, but he created his own luck by pulling off a five-set upset of Nadal in 2016. The Spaniard has already come close this season to scoring a huge win over Djokovic, as they faced each other earlier this month in Abu Dhabi. Verdasco led by a set and 6-2 in the second-set tiebreaker but squandered quadruple match point–and five match points in total–en route to a 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-3 loss. Thus Djokovic extended his head-to-head series lead to 9-4 and has won four in a row at Verdasco’s expense since suffering a pair of setbacks in 2010. The second-ranked Serb is 6-1 against the world No. 40 on hard courts, including 6-0 since losing their first-ever contest at the 2005 U.S. Open.

Djokovic slumped after winning the French Open last season and watched Andy Murray surpass him in the rankings, but his 2-17 campaign got off to an ideal start. After scraping past Verdasco, Djokovic defeated Murray 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 to capture the Doha title. Verdasco preceded his loss with victories over Vasek Pospisil, David Goffin, and Ivo Karlovic. The 33-year-old should be feeling good about his game and he has a history of success in Melbourne, where he reached the semifinals in 2009 before falling to Nadal in an epic five-setter. Of course, no active player has the same kind of history Down Under as Djokovic. He is a six-time champion of this tournament and has won it on five of the last six occasions. The No. 2 seed will be well aware of the danger Verdasco presents and should ensure that things are far more straightforward than they were in Doha.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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Florian Mayer vs. (9) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Mayer will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the first time in more than four years when they meet again on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 1-1, with Mayer having prevailed 7-6(5), 6-3 at the 2011 Shanghai Masters before Nadal got the job done 6-1, 7-5 on the clay courts of Rome one season later.

Mayer has been even more injury-plagued than Nadal of late, but the 33-year-old German resurfaced with a bang last summer. He reached the Stuttgart quarterfinals as a qualifier and captured a surprising 500-point title in Halle. Since then, however, the world No. 49 is 2-9 at the ATP level. In the first two weeks of this year he suffered consecutive third-set tiebreaker losses at the hands of Horacio Zeballos and Paolo Lorenzi. After missing the fall swing in 2016, Nadal triumphed in Abu Dhabi last month but lost to Milos Raonic in the Brisbane quarters to officially begin the 2017 campaign. Still, the ninth-ranked Spaniard is playing well enough to make routine work of Mayer–especially on something other than grass.

Pick: Nadal 3 losing 8-10 games

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36 Comments on Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Verdasco, Nadal vs. Mayer

    • Yes, looking forward to Tiafoe and Zverev!

      Opelka pushed Goffin, but couldn’t get it done. I have never seen him play. Great effort!

  1. Rafa’s serving stats for this match have been impressive.

    I think it was 73% first serves in
    78% first serves won

    I think second serves was over 80%

    • Yes, I was thinking of that. Rafa got through the first round this time! Moving on!

      One match at a time!

      Rafa looks so happy and the crowd is really behind him!
      ?

  2. Very solid match from Rafa. I thought Mayer played well, but Rafa was in the zone! His break point conversion however should definitely improve: 3 out of 12 isn’t going to work with stronger opponents!

    I am encouraged with Rafa’s forehand! Some of the points Rafa won were pure class! That was truly the staff of Rafa of old!

    Keep going Rafa! Get better with every match!
    Vamos!

  3. As I said, Novak wins in straights! Verda is only motivated and plays his best tennis when facing Rafa! Every time he meets Nole he is nothing but nutcase who fails to even make it competitive…I don’t think Novak played his best tennis, he was vulnerable but lucky to have mental midget on the opposite side…but I am sure he will raise his level as he progresses and will be ready for Dimi…

    • The nutcase actually had 4-3 advantage in the TB but lost both points on his serve. He really is weak mentally.

      Djokovic is too consistent to lose to Verdasco when the latter is so unstable on the court.

      • Doha, yes. I almost wrote that in my post. He actually had a 9-4 record against Djokovic coming into this match and in my view he has some really good shot patterns to hurt Nole. Problem is that when expectations start to rise, he crumbles.

  4. Djoko is really something – he just needs to play solid without the need to be spectacular to dispatch a hard hitting player like Verdasco and in straight sets. He can beat any player playing like this; only a top form Stan and maybe the Rafa of AO2012 could trouble him.

    • He is a monster at AO. Murray really needs to hit his forehand with full aggression to defeat him. Otherwise, he will again lose in 4 sets.

      Anyway, there is a long way to go. Djokovic will improve but you never know .Dimi is playing well these days.

        • haha. Don’t think Murray is losing to Fed. I am interested in seeing Fed’s next two performances. Won’t be surprised at all if he shows any signs of struggling. But then again, he is RF and he can shock me again 🙂

          • I’m with you about Fed. Fed is not half a step slow but a full step slow! If it’s Klizan that Fed was playing, Fed would have lost. I’ll be surprised if he picks up his form soon. I have him losing to Berdych in R3.

            Im also impressed with Dimi since Brisbane; hoping he will put up a good fight vs Djoko in R4 should they meet.

          • yeah… If Berdych can play well, Fed will have a hard time. When you are in a position Fed is at, it is easy to start doubting yourself when facing tough times. I am waiting for Fed to run into some good baseliners.

          • That’s a yuuuge ‘IF’ VR.

            He’s 1-22 last three years vs Big 4 – the lone win coming against Rafa just off appendix surgery at the AO in 2015.

            The fact that people are giving Harrison a shot against him says enough on its own.

            I’m gonna hate to say I told you so but you leave me with no option.

          • Yeah Bredych been really off. That is true.

            Lol, let’s see. Hoping berdych will be able to play at a decent level.

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