Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Verdasco, Nadal vs. Mayer

Novak Djokovic will not have any time to ease into his Australian Open title defense, as he has to face Fernando Verdasco right off the bat on Tuesday. Verdasco’s 2016 first-round opponent, Rafael Nadal, has a date with Florian Mayer.

Fernando Verdasco vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Last year it was Rafael Nadal. This year it’s Djokovic. Verdasco cannot catch a break with his Australian Open first-round draws, but he created his own luck by pulling off a five-set upset of Nadal in 2016. The Spaniard has already come close this season to scoring a huge win over Djokovic, as they faced each other earlier this month in Abu Dhabi. Verdasco led by a set and 6-2 in the second-set tiebreaker but squandered quadruple match point–and five match points in total–en route to a 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-3 loss. Thus Djokovic extended his head-to-head series lead to 9-4 and has won four in a row at Verdasco’s expense since suffering a pair of setbacks in 2010. The second-ranked Serb is 6-1 against the world No. 40 on hard courts, including 6-0 since losing their first-ever contest at the 2005 U.S. Open.

Djokovic slumped after winning the French Open last season and watched Andy Murray surpass him in the rankings, but his 2-17 campaign got off to an ideal start. After scraping past Verdasco, Djokovic defeated Murray 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 to capture the Doha title. Verdasco preceded his loss with victories over Vasek Pospisil, David Goffin, and Ivo Karlovic. The 33-year-old should be feeling good about his game and he has a history of success in Melbourne, where he reached the semifinals in 2009 before falling to Nadal in an epic five-setter. Of course, no active player has the same kind of history Down Under as Djokovic. He is a six-time champion of this tournament and has won it on five of the last six occasions. The No. 2 seed will be well aware of the danger Verdasco presents and should ensure that things are far more straightforward than they were in Doha.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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Florian Mayer vs. (9) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Mayer will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the first time in more than four years when they meet again on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 1-1, with Mayer having prevailed 7-6(5), 6-3 at the 2011 Shanghai Masters before Nadal got the job done 6-1, 7-5 on the clay courts of Rome one season later.

Mayer has been even more injury-plagued than Nadal of late, but the 33-year-old German resurfaced with a bang last summer. He reached the Stuttgart quarterfinals as a qualifier and captured a surprising 500-point title in Halle. Since then, however, the world No. 49 is 2-9 at the ATP level. In the first two weeks of this year he suffered consecutive third-set tiebreaker losses at the hands of Horacio Zeballos and Paolo Lorenzi. After missing the fall swing in 2016, Nadal triumphed in Abu Dhabi last month but lost to Milos Raonic in the Brisbane quarters to officially begin the 2017 campaign. Still, the ninth-ranked Spaniard is playing well enough to make routine work of Mayer–especially on something other than grass.

Pick: Nadal 3 losing 8-10 games

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26 Comments on Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Verdasco, Nadal vs. Mayer

  1. Nole in 4 sets… This is his tournament, owns it so dont see him losing…

    Rafa in 3 sets probably only losing a handful of games…

  2. Actually Nadal vs Meyer h2 is 2:1 to Nadal

    2012 Rome Masters R32 Clay Rafael Nadal Florian Mayer 6-1 7-5
    2011 Shanghai Masters R16 Hard Florian Mayer Rafael Nadal 7-6(5) 6-3
    2002 Spain F20 Futures F Clay Rafael Nadal Florian Mayer 7-6(3) 6-4

  3. It’s possible for Novak to maybe lose a set to Nando. This is his first match and it could happen. But I think that Novak will be ready this time and given that it’s a best of five set match, he has the clear advantage. Having said that, I would not be surprised if Novak wins in 3 sets.

    Rafa should get the win in 3 sets, most likely losing 8-10 games. Sometimes I predict Rafa will lose more games in a first match if he’s working to get into better form. But I am leaning to it being pretty straightforward.

  4. I didn’t realize that Rafa was on! He won the first set against Mayer easily. Rafa is serving well. Now they switched the other matches! Oops, now they switched back!

    2-2 in the second set.

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