Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Raonic vs. Nadal

With Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic having exited the proceedings, Milos Raonic and Rafael Nadal are two of the top Australian Open title favorites. They will face each other on Wednesday in a blockbuster quarterfinal contest.

Milos Raonic and  Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Australian Open on Wednesday.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 6-2, but Raonic has won two of their last three encounters dating back to 2015. The Canadian got the job done 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5 at the Indian Wells Masters two years ago and most recently prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 earlier this month in Brisbane. In between those two contests, Nadal scored a 6-3, 7-6(3) victory at the 2015 Shanghai Masters.

The ninth-ranked Spaniard must be eager to avenge his Brisbane setback, but he almost did not get a chance. Alexander Zverev led Nadal two sets to one during third-round action but ended up falling 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2. Nadal endured a minor scare in his next outing against Gael Monfils only to avoid another five-setter by recovering from a break down in the fourth to win 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

Raonic was not been perfect on serve in his last two matches like he was in his first two, but an improving ground game has led to more than enough service breaks of his own. Following defeats of Dustin Brown, Gilles Muller, and Gilles Simon, the No. 3 seed broke Roberto Bautista Agut five times on Monday en route to a 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 win.

“I think going to be a tough match for me, for sure,” Nadal commented. “Hopefully for him, too. He’s an opponent that make you feel that you’re playing with a lot of pressure all the time because his serve is huge and he’s playing very aggressive from the baseline. But I hope to be ready for it. I need to be very focused with my serve and play aggressive. If I am not playing aggressive, then I am dead.”

“We both tried to be the aggressors early on,” Raonic said of their Brisbane showdown. “I fought through a difficult moment midway through that second set. Then I thought I had it pretty handily after that point. I broke towards the end of that second set; broke right away in the third, had a lot of love-30 games, had a lot of break chances after that, (and was) holding quite easy. I found that…sort of turning point that I was looking for in that match. Obviously it’s very within me to find those solutions again, I believe.”

In what is sure to be a competitive contest, Raonic’s superior ability to win free points on serve may be the difference. Nadal will undoubtedly have to win plenty of pressure-packed baseline points on his own serve, and just one or two forehand errors at crucial moments could prove to be decisive.

Pick: Raonic in 5

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30 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Raonic vs. Nadal

    • Yes, lately he had become very nervous in TBs. Safe to say his confidence is back; he is holding himself together at crucial moments.

  1. I saw a Rafa match live after ages..So much tension..I had like 1.5 litres of water in 2.5 hours..too much anxiety..

    How do you guys see him day in and day out. Kudos to you. The tension is way too much.

  2. I think today’s match is the best from rafa so far..i’m very very satisfied with his perfomance more than monfils match…Hopefully he can also produce another spectacular perfomance against Dimi…KEEP CALM AND LOVE RAFA!!!VAMOS!!

    • Agree today was far better than Monfils..1st and 3rd were great..2nd set was up and down though..but the 5 set points saved were awesome

  3. THey say courts are very fast..However I did not find the pace very fast today..neither were balls flying past you..the Fed..nishi match..it looked super fast..

    anyone else felt the same?

    • That’s because Kei was playing into Fed’s hands by playing to Fed’s quick pace. Imo, Kei should slow down a bit, just kept to the 20sec and not anything less to slow down the rhythm of the match.

  4. TBH, I already saw third set lottery TB with tension and pressure on Rafa! Gosh, am I glad to see him winning in three! Great, amazing achievement against the big hitter like Milos!

    Vamos!

  5. Yes, so happy for Rafa to win in straight sets. He’s so brilliant on his ROS and his serve. He really listened to everyone who told him to vary his court positions for his ROS. He’s so great esp returning from that BH corner, so good to see that!

  6. Not to sound bragging or tempt fate but as soon as i saw rafa gallivanting on to the court to play,from his body language,i knew that he will win..i’m just very surprised how motivated and determined rafa was..i guess winning against monfils gave him a very very huge self confidence and belief…Thank you God!!

  7. I think Rafa’ s confidence is high! His performance in key moments was extraordinary! His serve is doing damage to his opponents! I am so pleased with the way he handled Raonic! Hopefully Rafa makes more of these outstanding performances to make his fans all over the world proud and happy! ??

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