Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Raonic vs. Nadal

January 24, 2017 Ricky Match previews 191

With Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic having exited the proceedings, Milos Raonic and Rafael Nadal are two of the top Australian Open title favorites. They will face each other on Wednesday in a blockbuster quarterfinal contest.

Milos Raonic and  Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Australian Open on Wednesday.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 6-2, but Raonic has won two of their last three encounters dating back to 2015. The Canadian got the job done 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5 at the Indian Wells Masters two years ago and most recently prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 earlier this month in Brisbane. In between those two contests, Nadal scored a 6-3, 7-6(3) victory at the 2015 Shanghai Masters.

The ninth-ranked Spaniard must be eager to avenge his Brisbane setback, but he almost did not get a chance. Alexander Zverev led Nadal two sets to one during third-round action but ended up falling 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2. Nadal endured a minor scare in his next outing against Gael Monfils only to avoid another five-setter by recovering from a break down in the fourth to win 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

Raonic was not been perfect on serve in his last two matches like he was in his first two, but an improving ground game has led to more than enough service breaks of his own. Following defeats of Dustin Brown, Gilles Muller, and Gilles Simon, the No. 3 seed broke Roberto Bautista Agut five times on Monday en route to a 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 win.

“I think going to be a tough match for me, for sure,” Nadal commented. “Hopefully for him, too. He’s an opponent that make you feel that you’re playing with a lot of pressure all the time because his serve is huge and he’s playing very aggressive from the baseline. But I hope to be ready for it. I need to be very focused with my serve and play aggressive. If I am not playing aggressive, then I am dead.”

“We both tried to be the aggressors early on,” Raonic said of their Brisbane showdown. “I fought through a difficult moment midway through that second set. Then I thought I had it pretty handily after that point. I broke towards the end of that second set; broke right away in the third, had a lot of love-30 games, had a lot of break chances after that, (and was) holding quite easy. I found that…sort of turning point that I was looking for in that match. Obviously it’s very within me to find those solutions again, I believe.”

In what is sure to be a competitive contest, Raonic’s superior ability to win free points on serve may be the difference. Nadal will undoubtedly have to win plenty of pressure-packed baseline points on his own serve, and just one or two forehand errors at crucial moments could prove to be decisive.

Pick: Raonic in 5

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65 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Raonic vs. Nadal

  1. Amazing Rafa, he sent back everything Raonic threw at him and more. Raonic really didn’t do anything wrong, he was really against the wall at times in the third. Grindhouse performance from Rafa today, still not his killer old self but getting there.
    Dimi next, one match at a time.

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

      • Yes, you are right VR, yesterday it was Federer but with Rafa beating Raonic, oddsmakers have Rafa as the slight favourite over Fed.

        Great fight from Rafa. Mental strength was much higher from him compared to Raonic who choked in some big moments.

        Rafa’s walking the walk now.

        A huge opportunity.

        I have a feeling that next week’s GOAT will win the Australia. Hoping to be happy about it.

        Reply

        • GOAT, baaaaahhhh. Sorry, don’t believe in GOAThood. Is Federer the GOAT on clay? Is Rafa the GOAT on indoor surfaces? What they are is two of the greatest ever to play tennis. And O ye gods of tennis, hear our prayers! Let us have a Fedal in Australia! And either way I won’t complain about the result. (But I really, really hope that Rafa wins)

          Reply

        • @Hawkeye, it would be epic to have two GOATs fighting for it in the finals. I know both have tough semis but it is a very likely prospect now. Federer’s backhand better than ever at the moment (yes, a lot better than his 2006-07 level).

          How epic would a double career slam be?!!!!

          Reply

          • It would be great VR.

            As I’ve said before, GOAT of course is completely subjective and is a personal thing.

            It is obvious for me anyways at this point in history, unless there is a big upset, next week’s GOAT will with the Australian Open.

            Hoping it’s Rafa if he can also get by Dimi who I can’t call dim dim while he continues to play like this,

            He’s smartened up and finally found his game.

  4. Amazing match!! Am I still dreaming?

    Yes, Dimi has finally got it together. The semi will not be a cakewalk but so far nothing has. Vamos Rafa!

    Btw, I’ve always felt that Raonic just does not have it when the chips are down. His tournament wins are all 250’s except for a win in Washington a couple years ago. He has more losses than wins in finals, possibly from banging his on the glass ceiling provided by the Big 4.

    Reply

  5. I haven’t been watching tennis for a year or so, so I’be missed, amongst many other things, how Dimi’s game has evolved. How would you say his game differs from Federer’s? mental side apart. Should Rafa approach this match as if he were playing Fed?

    Reply

    • I expect Dimi to attack Rafa’s BH! Rafa should mix it up, it’s not the same as playing Fed and going aftet Fed’s BHs, but shoulld he win it would definitely be a good practice for the finals! It’ will be mental match. I expect Dimi starts firing on all cylinders which means Rafa should avoid his slow start. However, Dimi may not be able to keep up the pace and Rafa then takes advantage of it! Dimi has good serve but nothing spectacular and if Rafa ROS is as near good as todays Dimi is in trouble!

      I wouldn’t say Dimi’s game evolved that much! He is just less prone to errors being in good form and high on confidence! But all of this is true for Rafa too and even better! It will be a good match and fun to watch as long as Rafa wins!
      Vamos!

      Reply

      • 3 change in Dimi

        serving better

        not standing 6-8 ft behind baseline, now closer to baseline

        More patient in point construction..today with Goffin was really patient

        Reply

  6. BTW, Goffin played poorly! His first serve was only 47%, made 46 errors and still broke Dimi’s serve twice. The bresk points conversion was also lousy for Goffin 2 out of 10! Dimi allowing the opponent who has a bad day in the office 10 chances for break is significant indicator of some of his weaknesses which Rafa could explore.,,

    Reply

  8. I am thinking, the opponent like Milos was exactly what Rafa needed: This match was not too demanding on Rafa’s body, there were only a few long points, not one of those grueling matches to suck the energy out of Rafa! So he is managed to conserve energy! In the same time, the match was mentally challenging, forcing Rafa to rely on his mental strength and his belief! Great match to build Rafa’s confidence!

    Reply

    • Yes, the way it has played out, this was an ideal match. Now, Dimi would be an ideal prep for the final if Rafa can manage to beat him.

      Rafa will win in 4 sets in my view

      Reply

      • I just saw the match! Watched my recording!

        Rafa, Rafa. Rafa! You have made my dreams come true!

        This us Rafa! Straight sets! Brilliant serving! Fighting off six set points in that second set TB! Breaking Raonic to win in the third set!

        Rafa’s reaction made me cry! He is in the semis!

        I am with Shireling! Rafa has exceeded my expectations, so no stress now. It’s all good!

        Dimi will come in with no pressure and come out swinging. But Rafa has the experience and the smarts and savvy. The way Rafa is playing now I think he can sense the finish line.

        I am SO happy for Rafa! No long match, which will help him now.

        I am on cloud nine!

        Reply

  11. I wish amy is here to celebrate rafa’s amazing run at AO this year…Hey amy!if you read this,please comeback to TG..we can get along pretty well u know…If you don’t want to chat with anyone,just chat with me okay?..i’m a pretty cool gal..i can prove it to u..

    Reply

    • mira andi, i just found out rafa won and came on here to see what people like vr were saying about his game right now. so that is a big coincidence! you are a darling mira andi and i am always happy to talk to you….i will be back on friday for the semis ok??!
      so see you then xxxx
      big hug…

      Reply

      • Hey amy!!!I can’t believe you’re here!!hey don’t go yet!..I miss u,u know..Are you happy rafa won amy?Btw…BIGGGGGG virtual hug and kisses for you amy!I will wait for you this friday okay?Promise to come here again amy!!

        Reply

        • yes i am very happy he won mira andi!! i’ve always said if he can get through his first round slam nerves he can go on to win….
          i promise to see you on friday mira andi and i miss you too…you have such a good heart…
          more virtual hugs…
          still a bit worried about dimi…

          Reply

          • amy!U don’t know how happy i am to ‘see’ u here…yeah amy..i think the turning point for rafa was when he can generate a win over sascha the other day..that was a pretty tough match..and when he can survive that,it cemented in his mind that he can get through anything..and the match with Monfils to me nailed the self and his confidence even more…we can see it by his body language today amy!Oh my God!i’m so so happy…and double HAPPY when you’re here too amy!..Err about Dimi,is it exaggerated of me if i said,if he can survive a very dangerous serve bot like Milos,then Dimi is just like a piece of cake??Or if not cake,maybe a steak or spaghetti or ice cream..whatever you wish for amy!!ha ha ha..

          • you are funny MA!!! agree with everything you say and i suppose also rafa got some luck with zverev cramping and luck can make you believe that the gods are aligning in your favour.
            as for dimi perhaps you are extending the eye candy metaphor a bit too far with all the food tropes!! haha…..am not taking anything for granted.
            so glad you are happy today MA..and see you friday…..not sure what time i can get here…
            another kiss or 2….xxx

          • Hey amy wanna go already?i’m still not finished talking to u!What about my cow story??U don’t want to hear it??Urgh!Talking about rafa won a little bit BOOOORINGGGGG!!Isn’t it?Ooppss!The plate start to fly over my head now amy!Ha ha ha..

          • MA i do want to hear your cow story darling but i really do have to go now to try and get some work done!!
            am very impressed with your violence towards cows and plates…go girl!!! haha…
            do have to go now hon but we can chat loads on friday….xxxx

          • Okay amy..i’m just teasin’ yer!It’s not my fault that i am so happy to see u back here!Have a good day amy!..Now,don’t you go harrassing and do a lawn mower fist pump to your colleagues just because rafa won today okay?

          • mira andi not sure now i can be here tomorrow. just wanted to warn you as i did promise! i will try but it’s going to be difficult. will be thinking of you though!
            take care honey…xx

          • Amy…you can’t be here tomorrow?Oh no!!I’m looking forward to chat with u already!!In fact i’m thinking that today IS FRIDAY!!Yeah i know amy…silly me!!But that’s okay amy,if u feel wanna waste your time by listening to my ‘kneecap’ talking,just stop by okay?I WILL ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOKING FORWARD TO CHAT WITH U AMY!!Oh btw…i got something for u amy..

            https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/14/3b/c6/143bc6ae05ad576502a9186801282c8e.jpg

            #VERYMUCH!!!!!

          • thanks darling!! i do want to talk to you tomorrow if i can but i have lots of work obstacles in my way…i will try really really hard to be here….xx
            am getting nervous about everyone saying rafa will beat dimi…it’s not a done deal…

          • You’re welcome amy!Btw…that’s alright if u can’t chat tomorrow..work first okay?but promise me amy to come back again as often as u can..I feel something very missing for me when you’re not here..You,rc,Nny and Alison are my favourite person here..missing one then life will not complete!Btw…he he..i too predicted that rafa will beat Dimi in 3,4 or 5 amy..and i know it’s not a done deal yet sweetie but if we see the stats and everything about rafa for the last 10,11 days..my God amy..our rafa of old is back!!And honestly i think when rafa be able to reach the 2nd week,he’s getting stronger and stronger..that’s rafa’s nature amy..so,don’t be nervous sweetie,i think he will prevail..but if he is not..to reach semis in a grand slam when he’s only play for about 5,6 matches before he came here?Oh wow!We should be happy for his amazing comeback amy..It’s already incredible..because we know,the demon that lives in his fragile body almost gone!So,at least we have to cheer and be happy about it okay sweetie?That’s alright,don’t be nervous okay?

          • mira andi ..yes i promise you i won’t disappear…i always come and go on this site…sometimes here a lot sometimes not here for long periods. otherwise i can’t get work done as i lose concentration and get distracted!!
            you are completely right about rafa ie he has done amazing to get this far after being out for so long so this is a great tourney for him even if he loses. it’s all positive as far as i am concerned and i feel that things will only get better with carlos on board.
            if i can be here tomorrow then of course i will and you will be the first person i look for!! thanks for everything darling…as i said yesterday you have such a good heart…
            take care for now….xxxxxx if i can’t be here tomorrow will be thinking of you..

          • So glad to see you back posting here Amy even if you are still upset with me.

            Nice to read your posts again.

  12. I was very surprised to see Dimi win so easily over Goffin. I thought it was a pick ‘me, but thought Goffin had the edge. But that was not Goffin at his best. Also, Rafa is NOT Goffin!

    Dimi got a set off Rafa in the 2014 AO quarterfinals, but Rafa had that terrible blister that made his racket keep slipping!

    Rafa is gaining points and confidence with every match! Rafa played even better in this match and I expect him to raise his level of play for the semis!

    You go Rafa! Love you champion!
    ?

    Reply

    • Mira Andi,

      I don’t know how you do it, but you find the best articles! I loved reading Moya’s thoughts about Rafa and his matches. I am so glad that he is on the team!

      You will have to hold my hand virtually! Since we see are not together! I am getting more nervous by the hour.

      This is not going to be easy!

      I need all your help!
      ?

      Reply

      • Nny!Great to hear from u..I’m very glad i’m here too Nny..very pleasure to have a NICEEEEE and wonderful chat with u and amy…I love u guys already!!Ha ha..i’m pathetic!!Btw..Once again u can count on me to hold your hands virtually Nny..if u watch it live then i will do my best to soothe your worry and nerves okay?Don’t be afraid,we have to think positive..if it is meant for Rafa,then he will win..if not there’s so many tournament ahead of him and us to still cheer and watch him play Nny…and u know what?In any one of them,we will gonna see he’s going to do one of his trademark..Biting the TROPHY!!Hopefully at FO,yes?Oh btw..Nny..i hope it’s okay if i give u this..If u feel down or nervous,just know that Rafa loves us his fans..and we love him back unconditionally okay?

        http://mynamepics.in/result_display.php?name=Rafa&name2=Nny&id=150

        Reply

        • Mira Andi,

          How did you do that? It’s wonderful! Love it!

          I know that Rafa will have his chances with more tennis to be played. But I have to tell you that this is the one I have wanted for Rafa. I think I said as much last year when we were all discouraged after Rafa had the wrist injury. I said that if Rafa had won the 2014 AO and the double career slam and had his 15th slam, I would be okay if he couldn’t come back and this was it. This is the one I wanted. I know that we have talked about La Decima st RG, but winning the double career slam puts Rafa in a class by himself. It is a singular achievement. So this is the one I want. That is why I am getting so stressed out.

          Reply

          • Nny!He he..I will do anything for u,as long as it can make u happy and less stress or nervous okay?..Thank u for loving it!!…Nny,honestly,at the beginning of the tournament,i wouldn’t even think of Rafa even past round 1,2,3,4 let alone be in semi like this..and like u,when he’s at this stage,i want nothing more than for him to go to the final and bagged another AO..Oh Nny!If rafa be able to do that,i will fly to NY and hug u and kiss your cheeks and lift u off the ground and swirl u around and around until u felt dizzy and we fell to the ground and laugh like a crazy kids!!!Ha ha ha ha…But,DIMI first!!!!

          • Mira Andi,

            Just to let you know, I don’t live in NY. I was born there, hence my user name. I lived in Los Angeles for 34 years. I moved from L.A. to Florida in 2014. I live in Palm Beach County in Delray Beach.

            So you would have to come to Florida to give me a hug! I usually get pretty stressed out when Rafa goes deep in a slam. But I haven’t had to deal with that for the last two years while Rafa has struggled.

            However, I will gladly take the stress and see Rafa do well again! It’s been great to see him playing so well and getting some victories.

            I am starting to think that this match might be tougher than I thought.

            I am really enjoying reading the articles you have posted! Good reading!
            ?

          • Oh sorry about that Nny!I forgot rc already mention about Florida the other day..sorry okay?And well,i guess i have to swim all over Pacific Ocean just to hug u Nny…Anything for u ma’am!!Btw,i’m also gotta a feeling that Dimi will give rafa some work tonight but hey!I still believe in Rafa Nny!I hope he will not disappoint us today…Yeah!!!Bring it on!!!

          • Mira Andi,

            Thank you! Great advice! I am starting to calm down!

            I need to try and get a little sleep before the match!

            You are the best!
            ?

  14. Summary of the match from the ATP website:

    Overall, Nadal hit 15 forehand winners to Raonic’s 11. Nadal backed it up with 13 winners off the backhand side to Raonic’s zero. Not a single backhand winner for the Canadian out of 212 points.

    Whenever Nadal needed a point, he knew on this night, on this court, that he could pound away at Raonic’s backhand without retaliation. Raonic’s zero backhand winners was a bad number. The 30 backhand errors offered zero support.

    Nadal won 53 per cent (61/116) of his baseline points, while Raonic was far away at 35 per cent (31/89). Raonic only served and volleyed five times, winning three, and won just 52 per cent (27/52) at net for the night.

    Nadal won the big moments, and was constantly playing from ahead in the majority of the rallies. Coming from behind against a 14-time Grand Slam champion at Rod Laver Arena is just too tough of an ask.

    https://2017.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/art … oment.html.

    Reply

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