Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Raonic vs. Nadal

With Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic having exited the proceedings, Milos Raonic and Rafael Nadal are two of the top Australian Open title favorites. They will face each other on Wednesday in a blockbuster quarterfinal contest.

Milos Raonic and  Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Australian Open on Wednesday.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 6-2, but Raonic has won two of their last three encounters dating back to 2015. The Canadian got the job done 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5 at the Indian Wells Masters two years ago and most recently prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 earlier this month in Brisbane. In between those two contests, Nadal scored a 6-3, 7-6(3) victory at the 2015 Shanghai Masters.

The ninth-ranked Spaniard must be eager to avenge his Brisbane setback, but he almost did not get a chance. Alexander Zverev led Nadal two sets to one during third-round action but ended up falling 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2. Nadal endured a minor scare in his next outing against Gael Monfils only to avoid another five-setter by recovering from a break down in the fourth to win 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

Raonic was not been perfect on serve in his last two matches like he was in his first two, but an improving ground game has led to more than enough service breaks of his own. Following defeats of Dustin Brown, Gilles Muller, and Gilles Simon, the No. 3 seed broke Roberto Bautista Agut five times on Monday en route to a 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 win.

“I think going to be a tough match for me, for sure,” Nadal commented. “Hopefully for him, too. He’s an opponent that make you feel that you’re playing with a lot of pressure all the time because his serve is huge and he’s playing very aggressive from the baseline. But I hope to be ready for it. I need to be very focused with my serve and play aggressive. If I am not playing aggressive, then I am dead.”

“We both tried to be the aggressors early on,” Raonic said of their Brisbane showdown. “I fought through a difficult moment midway through that second set. Then I thought I had it pretty handily after that point. I broke towards the end of that second set; broke right away in the third, had a lot of love-30 games, had a lot of break chances after that, (and was) holding quite easy. I found that…sort of turning point that I was looking for in that match. Obviously it’s very within me to find those solutions again, I believe.”

In what is sure to be a competitive contest, Raonic’s superior ability to win free points on serve may be the difference. Nadal will undoubtedly have to win plenty of pressure-packed baseline points on his own serve, and just one or two forehand errors at crucial moments could prove to be decisive.

Pick: Raonic in 5

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24 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Raonic vs. Nadal

  1. Come on Rafa! That was a perfect set. 12 winners, 2 UE. Raonic won 64% points on first srve and 50% on second serves. At this level, Rafa will defeat anybody in the draw. Question is, can he keep the intensity up? YOU CAN CHAMP!

  2. Milos has the rafa of recent times right where he wants him – ahead in a match?. Hope rafa does not let up. The returns have been so encouraging so far.

  3. How well is Rafa serving in the deuce court! Amazing! and he is prepared to take forehands on the rise as the first strike after the serve.

    Deuce! Raonic is piling the pressure here. Stay steady, Rafa.

    • Sanju, that is very normal. Even the Rafa os 2008,2010 and 2013 couldn’t avoid these start of second set lapses after winning the first lol.

      I will only be concerned if his stays low for a while.

  4. Rafa’s playing too well to lose this match. Come on champ, keep the intensity up and you can do this!

    Rafa’s ROS has been really smart today. He has shortened his back swing and is making such good contact.

  5. It looks like rafa really serious when he said he wants to be aggressive against Milos…He stand 5,6 meters behind the baseline against Monfils but tonight he stand much closer to the baseline,make his intention clear to attack Milos serves..It’s working perfectly fine so far..

  6. Ricky, It is bad compared to the first set but not a bad set overall. There have been some good quality shots.

    Raonic has left the court. Toilet?

  7. Milos seems to have some problem with the hip and has gone for an inspection. Rafa being the opportunist he is sneaked into the loo at the same time. Was checking with the referee if it will count as a timeout against himp

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