Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Auger-Aliassime

Daniil Medvedev
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Tournament favorite Daniil Medvedev will take on Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime for a spot in the Australian Open semifinals on Wednesday.

If you want to understand the matchup between Daniil Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, you need look no further than a couple weeks ago at the ATP Cup in Sydney. The Australian Open’s No. 2 seed and the No. 9 seed met in the semifinals of the team event. Medvedev handed Auger-Aliassime a proper shellacking, complete with a bagel (6-4, 6-0).

With a week and a half of matches under his belt, Auger-Aliassime should put in a better performance than he did in Sydney — but Medvedev has also had basically the same amount of time on court to shake off the offseason rust.

The Canadian has had to work hard for his spot in the quarters this fortnight. Only his third round against Dan Evans was straightforward. Otherwise he was challenged by each of Emil Ruusuvuori, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Marin Cilic.

Felix

Medvedev has been more dominant. Nick Kyrgios nabbed a set in the second round, but there was never any real danger of the Russian losing that match. The only player to have pushed Medvedev’s buttons was the young American Maxime Cressy in the fourth round.

This has proven to be a poor matchup for Auger-Aliassime. He has only managed to take one set in three matches with Medvedev so far. On this court, where Medvedev plays so well, it’s hard to imagine the underdog turning the tide.

Cheryl pick: Medvedev in 3

Ricky pick: Medvedev in 3

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53 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Auger-Aliassime

    • You might be on to something there!!! Medvedev seems to have a match on his hands there!! AAA is not making joke!!! 😀 Great match thus far!! AAA is out Medvedeving Medvedev!!

  1. By watching this match I get an impression they are playing on clay 😂 why such long exchanges? Medvedev should be better than this.. His serve isn’t working so far but I think it is just the matter of time when Medvedev takes control in this match..,
    However, so far this kid is playing great tennis…I guess Toni does great job with him..

  2. I think Meddy is feeling the heat; he doesn’t seem to play well at this AO, looks lethargic.

    He’s playing all the long rallies without wishing to go to the net, very passive play unlike his USO final last year. He’s very much playing the same way he played at AO last year, not a winning formula.

  3. Looks like FAA is winning this match. Tsitsipas Vs FAA SF will be interesting, as FAA seems to do well against Tsitsipas, but Tsitsipas playing the way he played the QF will be hard to beat.

    • Faa is in the zone ..extreme power hitting n no errors

      Meds grunt is weird too..is he unwell

      If faa wins ,the Canadians have bundled out the top 2 favs

    • Luckystar, I thought Sinner didn’t have a Plan B. He appeared to be just a ball basher and never even tried to take Tsitsipas out of his comfort zone. He just fed him balls to hit winners off.

  4. FAA is taking to Medvedev like no one ever predicted. It’s weird how the SF predictions on this side of the draw have turned on their heads. Med may still be able to pull this win out of a hat but it’s really not looking good for him right now! FAA needs to close this out un 3!!!

    • So Meddy wins the third set; can FAA win this match?

      Sinner is young and too one dimensional so Tsitsipas with his aggression could beat Sinner easily. Tsitsipas’ elbow seems to be better now, I think he will make it a match with either FAA or Meddy in the SF (FAA or Meddy will definitely play better than Sinner).

  5. Now what impact will this delay have on either player?! Perhaps just the break Medvedev needs, sigh! Hope this doesn’t impact FAA!!

  6. I thought Med was going to struggle this match! The previous match with Cressy was a clear sign he is struggling mentally..
    Not surprised Sinner was so disappointing..It’s a recurrent theme..

  7. My goodness, what a match! Almost certainly the match of the tournament so far…and it has been a VERY good tournament.

    • Grats on picking Rafa in 5 over Shaps Cheryl!
      I said beforehand I didn’t believe he could win a five setter due to fitness issues but you got it right..
      I thought Med would struggle after his match with Cressy..don’t think he’s enjoying the pressure of being fave to win the tournament..

      • Thanks, Amy. I just had a feeling Denis would put up a struggle. I did NOT think he would behave so badly afterwards. I don’t have the patience for that kind of childish petulance.

        Almost makes up for picking Medvedev in 3. Lol.

        • Haha Cheryl! Honestly I had a really strong feeling Med was going to struggle after his outbursts at the Cressy match. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tsitsi beats him!
          I agree about Shaps! Am not a fan..

        • Cheryl,

          I am disgusted by Shapo. Especially his comments in his presser. Rafa gets away with everything! Please! Stop with the whining! Shapo was obviously trying to throw Rafa off after he won the first set. Even the chair umpire wasn’t buying his baloney. He is lucky that the chair umpire did not hear him say that he was corrupt. He could have been defaulted for that. Yelling and screaming at the crowd and his box after losing the second set.

          Then he had the gall in his presser to say that Rafa was trying to break his momentum when he had the MTO and walked off the court to be checked out. The problem with that is that Shapo had break chances in the first game of the fifth set. He didn’t get it done. That is on him.

          He needs to just shut up and play! Grow up, too!

    • Absolutely Cheryll!! It has really been a great tourney considering how it all started! I think there was some great tennis especially on the men’s side. Everyone played very well indeed!! This has been my best AO after 2009!

      However, Felix’s played amazing just that he didn’t play the important point well in that last game. He really outplayed Medvedev in the first 2 sets and the fifth really should have gone to a TB bcoz of the quality!!

      Medvedev and Stephanos will be a cracker!! So the last men standing are really the best in the whole tourney? I’m so proud that Rafa is one of them!! Vamos!!

  8. Felix, is obviously very very talented but he is so prone to errors. I thought he had overcome that as he was hitting all the spots until the 3rd set TB when the errors started again and Medvedev just hung in there till the end.

  9. What a comeback by Meddy! He was able to find his competitive tennis to win in the end. Well, he’s a slam winner after all.

    FAA played very well too but over five sets he couldn’t sustain his good form and started making more errors. A loss like this is painful but he could learn from this loss I’m sure.

  10. I came on here to read the comments about the late match. Of course I was asleep and did not see them. I will try to catch up on the replay.

    So Felix made a match out of it. It sounds like he had his chances.

    I did see Tsitsipas and Sinner. That was a dreadful match. Many picked Sinner to win. I was not impressed by him. Tsitsipas looked very good. The ESPN commies says he recovered quickly from the elbow surgery. He looks confident and sharp.

    I think the semi with Tsitsipas and Med should be a cracker.

    • Yep. Tsitsipas looks very good. It surprises me a bit, since his form was off for a good few months at the end of 2021.

      Felix still sometimes makes the mistake of going for too much at the wrong times. His winners to unforced error differential was negative and the errors creep in just when he needs them not to. Still, I see significant improvement in his patience on court and that probably means big things in the years ahead for that delightful young man.

      • 100%. FAA’s demeanor is so much improved. One could see the maturity and I am glad he was upbeat in his presser. Just keep knocking the door with the right attitude and you’ll get there, young man. Technically very strong in all departments and just needs to have it his way in a big event to get that confidence.

    • Nny, they showed quite a lot of the Sinner Tsitsi match on the BBC highlights.
      Tsitsi was very good but Sinner was pretty awful. He didn’t put him under any pressure whatsoever.
      It’s easy to look good when you have a free run..

      • amy,

        Yes. I saw no effort from Sinner to change tactics in the match. Very one dimensional. I have not seen a lot of anyone lately, I stopped watching tennis after Rafa took time off for his foot.

        Tsitsipas looked great for someone who had elbow surgery. But I will keep in mind that anyone can look good when the opponent is playing like crap!

        I am watching the fifth set with Med and Felix. What a heartache to know that Felix was up two sets. But he put up a great fight and made Med work for it. He will learn a lot from this match.

        I think Med will feel good about coming back from two sets down. I think we should be in for a good one with Tsitsipas and Med.

  11. Tsitsipas’s forehand today reminded of young Federer. He is SO quick to his forehand side and because he can also slide into his forehand if needed, it’s a very explosive movement. I think his forehand is the closest to Federer’s and by far the best amongst the next gen (Thiem’s a close second if you include him in the next gen).

    Sinner needs to learn to adapt during these kind of matches. Anyway, Stefanos gave the best QF performance and I think he can’t wait to have a shot at avenging his humiliating defeat last year. It will be a cracker but based on current form you’ve got to go with Tsitsipas but Medvedev is tougher mentally.

    So how about Rafa cruising in 3 and Med Tsitsipas fighting it out for 5 hrs? lol

    I can’t help but feel very optimistic about Rafa’s chances after his narrow escape in the QF. I think he is slight favourite to life no.21

    • If Rafa reaches the final, I’m more worried about Tsitsipas than Meddy in the final!

      Meddy had a tough 4.75 hours QF and then a tough one against Tsitsipas, if he comes through he should be drained physically.

      Tsitsipas is younger and wasted no energy finishing off Sinner in the QF, if he beats Meddy (even though it may be a five setter), I think he’s still tough to beat in the final. Last year’s win over Rafa coming back from two sets down will give him confidence and belief if they meet again, in the final.

        • How many times have you been wrong about big matches and you still turn up with the same level of conviction of a person that has never, ever been wrong.

          I’m not saying you will be wrong on this occasion but you should keep your history in perspective.

        • I’m not sure what your point is; to prove I dont know what im talking about?

          just get over it and move on; everyone is entitled to their opinion and it doesn’t have to be a competition.

  12. VR,

    I would love to see Rafa get a straight set win after that marathon the other night. I hope that Med and Tsitsipas can go at it for hours.

    I always love to read your analysis of the matches. Rafa lost to Tsitsipas last year in the quarterfinals. That could be a factor if Tsitsipas plays him in the final. But I really don’t want to get stead of myself. Not with this tournament.

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