Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Fucsovics, Raonic vs. Cilic

Roger Federer will try to regroup after a tough third-round battle against John Millman when he faces the red-hot Marton Fucsovics on Sunday. Canadian veteran Milos Raonic will also be in action against Marin Cilic.

(3) Roger Federer vs. Marton Fucsovics

Federer was a couple of points from a third round exit on Friday night. The world No. 3 took on John Millman, the Australian who knocked him out of the 2018 U.S. Open. In fact, had they been at the U.S. Open with a traditional first-to-7 tiebreaker, Federer would have been out. As it happened, the Swiss just barely pulled out a win.

His reward is a meeting in the fourth round with Fucsovics, the world No. 67. Fucsovics has already gathered for himself quite the collection of upsets in Melbourne. He dispatched an out-of-sorts Denis Shapovalov in the first round and Jannik Sinner in the second. To call him “in form” would be understating the case. Considerably. In other words, he could be dangerous to Federer.

As Federer is the winningest Grand Slam champion of all time, it wouldn’t be wise to count him out–but he did not play his best against Millman. If he offers the same error-prone form to Fucsovics, it could mean another early exit for Federer.

Cheryl pick: Federer in 4

Ricky pick: Federer in 4


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(32) Milos Raonic vs. Marin Cilic

It is not perhaps the biggest fourth-round surprise in Melbourne (that distinction goes to Ons Jabeur and Qiang Wang on the women’s side), but Raonic and Cilic are hardly the obvious picks from this section of the draw. Raonic produced a particularly impressive win over the No. 7 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round.

Cilic, the Croatian veteran had some impressive wins of his own to earn his spot in the round of 16. He dispatched No. 21 seed Benoit Paire in the second round, but his performance of the fortnight so far was the five-set battle with Roberto Bautista Agut.

This match promises to feature monster serving. Their rankings (35th for Raonic, 39th for CIlic) largely puts them on a level playing field. Cilic, however, has won the two most recent of their three previous meetings.

Cheryl pick: Cilic in 5

Ricky pick: Raonic in 4


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27 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Fucsovics, Raonic vs. Cilic

  1. Glad I got my mid match prediction wrong because my line was on Fed. Looks like we will get a rematch of the best match in 2019.

    However, Raonic hasn’t dropped a set so could be a lot closer than many are thinking. Best server v best returner in the game, should be another great match.

    • And plz dont mention Roanic, his serves and groundies will stop clicking as soon as he sees Novak across the net!! Sigh! Max 4 sets with Novak winning it!

  2. I always liked Rao. Glad to see him back. Hope he will push Djoko to his limits.
    It would be an amazing upset. But is Raonic ready to raise to Novak’s level? Unlikely.

    • Yeah unlikely, after nine losses in nine matches played, this won’t be an exception, judging from how well Djoko plays so far.

      • I know, Lucky. But remember some of those Raonic vs Djokovic matches were sooo close. You never know… The key is to hold his serves first of all. Then everything can happen. Djoko is not at his best, he just hasn’t met anyone yet to really challenging him. Not yet.

  3. Raonic is 29 now also and I believe he’s getting tougher mentally with age. If he can put pressure on Djokovic’s service games he might be able to swing the psychological battle in his favour

  4. I think Fed actually played another pretty average match tonight, but he got a little better as it went on. Fucscovics really seemed to just drop off, his 1st serve was pretty disappointing and basically let Fed into most of his service games. He basically got cut up by short slice backhands in the end, the oldest Fed play in the book.

    Roger’s unpredictable these days, hopefully he brings something better against ‘Tennys’.

    Djokovic looks like hosing down anyone in this form he’s found, but never say never, there’s still a few matches left.

  5. Fed has found a new gear today.He hasn’t found a great serving rhythm and you can see how hard he is having to fight. I love how he problem-solved this tournament! He is fighting,grinding it out,out-smarting his opponents so his matches have had it all.

    Fed spent loads of time training but didn’t play any warm-ups. He is still finding his rhythm and is on the right track. The conditions are SLOW at night and you can see Fed really creating an impact with new balls and struggling when the balls get old.

    I think he will win in 4 sets against Sandgren.

  6. Federer did not play great in this match, but he definitely upped his level from the second set. More important, imo, he consciously changed his style of play, not just to more aggressive, but to hitting harder and flatter through the ball to try to compensate for the slower courts/balls. He ended him hitting many balls past Fucsovics, who is unbelievably fast; I think that bodes well for a likely match with Novak.

    If they do meet, those predicting a 2016-style beat-down have it all wrong. That match was very much the exception in their rivalry, and even then Fed won one set. Fed was clearly the better player in both of their matches last year, even if he lost the wimby final. And their Paris masters final in 2018 was extremely close. In any case, Djokovic is not playing at his 2016 level, and Fed’s form is improving. I am sure it will be close if they do meet in SF. I will be amazed if Roger isn’t there; Novak has a tough match in front of him but it would be pretty surprising if he doesn’t get past Raonic as well.

    • I thought he didn’t look very comfortable hitting over the BH or FH, although it was hard to tell because he chose the slice a lot, which was definitely an effective option against Fucsovics. I don’t think it was one of his better serving displays either, but fortunately Fucsovics could barely make a first serve in the later sets. Usually when Fed is serving well he runs through the games pretty quickly against lesser opponents, but I think he struggled to do that for most of the night. As others have said, it was a case of good problem-solving rather than great tennis.

      Same as against Millman, I thought he generally looked tentative. The conditions are probably a factor, it’s a bit slower at night and he gets caught in two minds as to when the pull the trigger. In the second round he looked his best, but since then he’s played against opponents who are a bit better (but still average overall) and I think he has lacked a little confidence due to reduced matchplay.

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