Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer No. 50 had no business happening at this Australian Open. Federer, himself, would be the first to admit that.
But it’s happening nonetheless, as the Swiss saved seven match points against Tennys Sandgren in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. That was preceded two rounds earlier by a comeback from 8-4 down in a final-set tiebreaker against John Millman.
Federer’s reward is an another installment of one of tennis’ all-time great rivalries. Heading into Thursday night’s semifinal collision, Djokovic holds a slight 26-23 edge over Federer in the head-to-head series. The Serb, who famously triumphed 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-6(4), 4-6, 13-12(3) in the 2019 Wimbledon title match, has won three of their previous four Australian Open encounters. They last met in Melbourne during 2016 semifinal action, with Djokovic getting the job done 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
The current world No. 2 is an even more overwhelming favorite now. After rolling to a seventh title Down Under last season, Djokovic is through to another semifinal following defeats of Jan-Lennard Struff, Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, and Milos Raonic. Only Struff managed to steal a set in the opening round.
But the potential for a lopsided affair on Thursday has even more to do with Federer than it does with Djokovic. Part of the reason for the 38-year-old’s flirtation with disaster is an apparent groin problem. Although nothing aside from poor play plagued Federer against Millman, on Tuesday he was far less than 100 percent throughout the latter stages of his 6-3, 2-6, 2-6, 7-6(10), 6-3 miracle at Sandgren’s expense.
“I don’t know if you can call it an injury,” the 20-time Grand Slam champion noted. “It’s just pain and problems. I need to figure it out. But…semifinals… you have an extra day, adrenaline, there’s a lot of things. Two good nights of sleep, doctors, physios….
“Hopefully we’ll find out that it’s actually nothing bad, that it was just the groin that went really tight from playing a lot, who knows what, from nerves. I don’t know. I’m hopeful.”
Even at 100 percent, though, would there be any hope against Djokovic? This is a guy who is 73-8 lifetime at Melbourne Park and utterly destroyed Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in last year’s final.
“I know that whenever we get a chance to play each other, we understand it takes a big effort and it’s required from us to come up with the best game in order to win against each other,” Djokovic said of Federer. “(At) Wimbledon last year, he had two match points–he was one shot away from winning that match…. He loves to play these kind of matches, big rivalries, semis, finals of Grand Slams.
“But I’ve been feeling well on the court. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
All signs point to more success on Thursday.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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WYG?
As I said previously, I don’t think Fed will play tomorrow unless he thinks he can win. That requires him to be near full health. So let’s assume he takes the court at near to 100% and then consider some recent history. First, Fed has arguably had the edge in their most recent matches. Apart from the tie-breakers at wimby, he dominated that match and their ATP finals match a couple months ago. Their Paris masters final in 2018 was a very close three set affair.
Second, Djokovic hasn’t beaten Fed in straight sets at a slam since 2011. Even in AO 2016, Novak’s most dominant victory, Roger managed a set. Novak will not win in straights tomorrow if Fed is healthy. Finally, Novak is not the player he was in 2016. He’s obviously still incredibly good, but so, still, is Federer. If they play, I’m picking Novak to win, but it will go to 4 or 5 sets. If Fed can somehow recapture his form from London a couple months ago, he will win.
Come on, Fed needs five sets to get past Sandgren, a guy ranked 99 or 100, you expect Fed to beat Djoko in four or five sets?
Even if Fed is healthy, I doubt he’s that fit to go the distance with a very fit Djoko! Don’t even need to talk about 2016, it’s four years since, I doubt both of them can be as good as then. Wimbledon, that’s Fed’s turf though may not be much longer; and Djoko obviously didn’t play well the whole tournament whilst Fed played so well, but still lost. WTF is BO3.
We’re talking about the AO, Djoko’s favourite slam with the court now being slow again, and Fed having to go five, four and then five sets in his last three matches before meeting Djoko in the SF!
It’ll be a miracle if Fed is to beat Djoko here, just like it’ll be a miracle if Rafa beats Djoko in the final!
That’s why I said: only if Fed is healthy. I think there’s a good chance he won’t play tomorrow because he isn’t. But if he is, his chances of beating Novak are much better than Nadal’s. On HC, Rafa hasn’t even taken a set off Novak (much less a match) since 2013. (He hasn’t taken a set off Fed on HC since 2015).
Regarding Fed’s fitness, well, he is 38. But he outlasted Millman, who is regarded as one of the fittest players on tour, and both Fucscovics and Sandgren are very young and fit as well.
Again, I’m picking Novak to win. I just think it will be closer than most people are assuming.
Rafa took 2 sets off fed in 2017 ao final..please don’t post wrong info..n all those losses (4) on hc came in 2017 only..please don’t use this 5 yeAr no win as they never played on hc after 2017 or from 2014 ao till 2017 except Basel 20@5 which is indoor ..how ppl twist statements to make it look bigger than it really is.
Sorry, Sanju, my mistake. You’re also right that most of those Fed-Nadal matches were in 2017. But the point still stands that Novak is a very bad match-up for Rafa on HC. And -I would argue- Fed’s record over many years on HC shows that he has a better chance to beat Novak here than Rafa does.
I agree fed has better chance on hard against Novak than rafa…matches are close ..i hope fed is fit tomm for us to see an exciting match
Exactly Sanju!
Feds age alone argues against his victory against djoker.
Sandgren wasnt playing like a guy ranked 100, more like 5.
Djokovic in 3 or 4. Fed’s in no shape to take on Djokovic, sorry, and I expect he’s fresh out of miracles at this point. Djokovic just isn’t going to blow umpteen match points, nuh uh.
I think Fed will play unless he has an injury he fears he could make worse. He loathes not playing. It’s rare in his career that he’s given walkovers, still more rare for him to retire from a match.
It’s not just rare for Roger to retire from a match, he has never retired from one single match in his entire 22 year career. Whereas Djokovic has retired 6 times in majors and 13 times total.
That’s one of most incredible statistics about Fed. 22 years, some 1500 ATP matches, and never once quit a match. It almost makes me re-think the claim I made the other day about Nadal being the greatest competitor tennis has ever seen.
Please Joe, Fed is very smart, he would rather withdraw from an event before it starts, or withdraw from the next match once he feels he’s not fit to play. To me that’s being a smart player, not exactly a very competitive player.
Rafa is definitely the greatest competitor; Djoko the greatest clutch player.
Ramara..rafa thiem thoughts ?
Djokovic in 4, maybe 3
Nadal in 4, maybe 5
Funny!!!…hehehe…poor rafa!!
https://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-2020-hilarious-moment-clueless-security-guard-stops-rafa-nadal-because-he-doesnt-have-his-id-pass/news-story/08ce4cbc54729115bcc23b644072b8b3
Sorry!…was meant to post that article on Rafa’s thread!
By now Federer must be drained physically and mentally. I would not be surprised if he retires but I would be very surprised if he wins. He can still ambush Djokovic on a fast indoor court in 3 sets, but tomorrow he doesn’t stand a chance under normal circumstances.
Roger may as well repeat the 2017 act: almost out 3 times, still made the final. Novak’s shoulder flaring up: why not, he didn’t do anything to fix that. Or maybe the elbow? Perhaps a terrible day at the office? Who knows. This is why the Swiss will most likely play even if the odds are not in his favor.
Djokovic’s success in Melbourne is mostly due to Rafa’s misfortune down under. It can’t be a coincidence that the Serb has the most GS titles where Nadal has the least. Also it makes no sense that he won more titles on a faster outdoor surface and in heat, which should both favor the Spaniard.
Nadal has rarely finished the season uninjured so he was mostly unfit when the new season started. Because of this, he got dumped early or got himself injured (4 times) during the tournament. 2017 and 2019 were no exceptions, he reached the final because he was still better than the rest but did not play well enough to win it.
I think that Rafa was 100% fit in Australia only in 2009 (when he won), in 2012 (when Novak beat him by the narrowest margin) and this year. However, luck does not seem to favor him this time either: tougher opponents, less rest before an eventual final.
If Nadal reaches the final after all, he may as well win it. Both Roger and Novak took advantage of him not being 100% fit last time they met, it should be about time to get even.
Fed vs Djoko, if Fed is fit to play, I’m sure he’ll try his very best. I think it’ll be something like AO2016 result – Djoko in four.
You can’t ignore the fact that Fed is playing nowhere near like what he was at Wimbledon or the first half of 2019.
This Fed will lose 3-0 to Djokovic. I hope Fed miraculously becomes healthy and plays like he did prior to and at Wimbledon last year but the chances of that happening are unlikely.
Zverev or Theim have the best chance of beating Djokovic IMO.
So glad Nadal lost, that was a long time coming. He would just roll over against Djokovic if he made the final like he’s done previously.
At least we get to spectate a final where the opoosition has a chance and the winner isnt just a formality.
I want to agree with Lucky that it will be like in 2016. It was honestly pretty miraculous that Fed was able to get that set off Novak in 2016, as Novak was at his peak. But I just don’t know this time… In pro tennis, 38 years old is very different than 34. Most importantly to me, this court surface and balls are an absolute nightmare for old man Fed. He relies so heavily on his serve these days, and these slow conditions just set him up to be blown away by a guy like Novak, who can crush returns on this court right back at Fed’s feet. I really do think this could be an absolute drubbing of Fed by Novak. I actually kind of sorry for Fed, like it could actually feel like the end to him and speed up his retirement. And believe me- I would love nothing more than for a miracle to happen and for Fed to magically win the match. But unfortunately it would require just that- a miracle. If Fed was in better shape physically, and conditions weren’t so slow, then I wouldn’t be so down on Fed’s chances. But it is what it is. But I’m actually extremely proud of Fed for fighting through to the SF. He could have so easily packed it in multiple times, yet here he is. He looked phenomenal against Krajinovic. Maybe he can find that form again somehow? I’m doubtful.
It’s all a matter of his health. If he can heal up the groin or whatever it is, he will be just fine. He did beat Novak handily just two months ago on a slow hard court. And don’t tell me this is a Bo5, as if it’s a different sport. It’s like Nadal said about Zverev: anyone who is good enough to win a masters 1000 is good enough to win a slam. The same applies to Fed’s recent play against Djokovic and his chances today -again, only if he is near 100%.
According to The Tennis Podcast, there are rumors swirling that Fed might actually have to withdraw from AO. If this wasn’t an Olympic year, I bet he would risk further injury, as he may not get another chance to have a another deep run at a major before retirement. But, alas, we all know Fed wants to compete in the Olympics, so I could see him not wanting to play if he’s hobbled.
that’s pretty sad if true. Hope the great maestro recovers soon.
Based on his play in the last match, I think it’s likely that Fed will withdraw. He won’t play unless he thinks his body gives him a good chance to win.
hate to admit it, but Joker in 3.
Hard to have much hope for Fed in this one, he hasn’t looked himself for most of this tournament. He has got through on sheer grit and the draw working out nicely.
Wouldn’t blame him if he withdrew, but it looks like he won’t. I guess there’s always a chance he somehow pulls up fine (despite the soreness and a LOT of time on court by his standards).
Djokovic should win this in three, unfortunately for Fed fans it looks like being the least competitive Djokovic/Federer match in a very long time.
I think Thiem could take it to Joker in the final, not so sure about Zverev, but they are a chance. Djoko has probably had the most trouble with the next gen out of the big three, for some reason. Having a younger guy against him in the final might be for the best.
Fed practised .he is not pulling out
with Nole being the huge favourite, there’s little pressure on Roger really, so if he can win a set you never know what could happen.
Wow. Fed is seeing it well tonight!
Come on Fed, at least wins a set if not the match. Fed is playing well so far, even defends well!
Djoko looks to me not in tip top conditions, perhaps he’s also affected by the ATP Cup. It’s just that he has a relatively easy draw here making him looks better than he is.
I hope Fed beats Djoko tbh, so that Rafa keeps his no. 1, and let Thiem or Sasha deal with Fed if they want to win a slam.
If Fed could beat all of them to win the slam then hats off to him!
Fed is seeing it well and has nothing to lose—that’s a dangerous combination. He also knows he was the better player for most of the Wimbledon final. Fed’s got nothing to fear tonight!
Plus he won the pre-match psychological battle. Djokovic wouldve been thinking about Fed’s injury and not focusing from the outset like he usually does in these big matches.