Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer No. 50 had no business happening at this Australian Open. Federer, himself, would be the first to admit that.
But it’s happening nonetheless, as the Swiss saved seven match points against Tennys Sandgren in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. That was preceded two rounds earlier by a comeback from 8-4 down in a final-set tiebreaker against John Millman.
Federer’s reward is an another installment of one of tennis’ all-time great rivalries. Heading into Thursday night’s semifinal collision, Djokovic holds a slight 26-23 edge over Federer in the head-to-head series. The Serb, who famously triumphed 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-6(4), 4-6, 13-12(3) in the 2019 Wimbledon title match, has won three of their previous four Australian Open encounters. They last met in Melbourne during 2016 semifinal action, with Djokovic getting the job done 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
The current world No. 2 is an even more overwhelming favorite now. After rolling to a seventh title Down Under last season, Djokovic is through to another semifinal following defeats of Jan-Lennard Struff, Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, and Milos Raonic. Only Struff managed to steal a set in the opening round.
But the potential for a lopsided affair on Thursday has even more to do with Federer than it does with Djokovic. Part of the reason for the 38-year-old’s flirtation with disaster is an apparent groin problem. Although nothing aside from poor play plagued Federer against Millman, on Tuesday he was far less than 100 percent throughout the latter stages of his 6-3, 2-6, 2-6, 7-6(10), 6-3 miracle at Sandgren’s expense.
“I don’t know if you can call it an injury,” the 20-time Grand Slam champion noted. “It’s just pain and problems. I need to figure it out. But…semifinals… you have an extra day, adrenaline, there’s a lot of things. Two good nights of sleep, doctors, physios….
“Hopefully we’ll find out that it’s actually nothing bad, that it was just the groin that went really tight from playing a lot, who knows what, from nerves. I don’t know. I’m hopeful.”
Even at 100 percent, though, would there be any hope against Djokovic? This is a guy who is 73-8 lifetime at Melbourne Park and utterly destroyed Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in last year’s final.
“I know that whenever we get a chance to play each other, we understand it takes a big effort and it’s required from us to come up with the best game in order to win against each other,” Djokovic said of Federer. “(At) Wimbledon last year, he had two match points–he was one shot away from winning that match…. He loves to play these kind of matches, big rivalries, semis, finals of Grand Slams.
“But I’ve been feeling well on the court. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
All signs point to more success on Thursday.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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Looks like all these tough matches by inform lower ranked players has played Fed into some form after the end of year break where he was clearly showing signs of rust.
Fed, you do it to yourself. You’ve only got you to blame for making sets go to TBs after having the break and then choking.
Very similar to Rafa yesterday right? Both of them had the advantage after breaking serve but went on to lose in the TB! Rafa losing three TBs in one match is just like Fed at Wimbledon final last year, I mean both of them couldn’t even win one TB out of three played in one match! Incredible!
Its called age!!!
Its over for Fed! He should just play for pride, and the crowd is just sooooo flat. Cmon!!!
And just like yesterday with Rafa, Fed dropping the first set after leading in it!!! I think both Rafa and Fed need to start thinking about retirement! They don’t have the killer instinct like before and no one fears them now!!! Next year, they’re not winning any GS. Novak has a little more time but not much!
I tend to agree that age is finally catching up with the big three. Even for Djoko the youngest of the trio, he looks more tired than usual, or at least not as fit as before.
I would think a Djoko in tip top conditions would come out all guns blazing to win the first set easily, against a Fed who’s not in tip TOP conditions; but no he looks flat from the get go and even let Fed moves ahead 4-1 in the set. If Djoko wins this and continues to play like this in the final, then I like Thiem’s or Sasha’s chances in the final.
Fed and Rafa are truly great, I mean Fed could edge out wins when he’s about to lose. Rafa had his chances in his match vs Thiem, in fact he was leading in all three sets and Thiem had to fight tooth and nail against a Rafa who was a bit off his usual standard (committing too many uncharacteristic UEs etc). Imagine the usual thing was for Rafa to serve well to hold serve and won the first set, and to hang on to his break advantage in the second set to win the set. He would have won the match in straight sets.
Of course Thiem played well to win in the end but he had to fight hard against a Rafa who’s a little bit off color(and yet had his chances to win). All these go to show how good both Fed and Rafa are, that their opponents have to fight hard to try to beat them when they’re obviously not at their best.
The match so far is much as I had thought. Fed showed in the first half of the first set that he has more than enough game to play with Novak on this surface. He’s fighting some kind of injury, but still in much better shape than he was against Sandgren. He has to hold serve and somehow find a way to break Djokovic, or else, somehow, win a TB.
This match has just 15 percent intensity of rafa thiem n rafa kyrgios .it’s so boring..the crowd is bored n umpire bored too n we are too..novak is surely also making too many uncharacteristic errors .he is surely looking beatable n i hope thiem or zverev don’t just show up for attendance or be happy with runners up
Yes, I agree. Those two Rafa matches were incredible tennis entertainment; this one, not so much.
Thiem or Sasha doesn’t just show up in a slam final, of course they want to win. I’m tipping Thiem to make it to the final, probably beating Sasha in three sets (I initially tip Sasha to win but now I feel Thiem should be more determined to win after beating Rafa). Thiem had put in the hard yard in the off season so he should be fit to go the distance in the next one or two match(es).
I feel Thiem has better chances than Sasha has against Djoko in the final. I agree that this Djoko looks beatable but in a slam final, expect him to raise his level significantly. For Rafa’s sake, I hope it’s Thiem who holds the winner trophy this coming Sunday.
Well done to Novak on making an 8th AO final! Roger gave him everything he could, but there just wasn’t much there after the first six games or so. Hopefully he can recover quickly from what ails him and be ready for the spring HC season.
At this point, my pick to win the tournament is Thiem, but I think that even if Zverev makes the final he will have good chances to win it all.
yeah, Thiem will be a difficult opponent for Novak. Not sure if he has the mental strength yet to take Novak down in a slam final but game-wise, he can do what Stan has often done to Novak.
It will be cold on Sunday and that is going to slightly favor Thiem’s big hitting game.
If Thiem gets there in the first place…he IMO capitalized on Rafa’s weak service, short balls and hitting far from the baseline…how many opportunities did Rafa miss which other players wouldn’t in the same circumstances? I think Rafa’s poor game made Thiem look way better than he really was…
Unfortunately, both players I think are not ready to test Novak…they do not have mental strength to deal with Novak in the final…But I agree that Thiem would be more difficult opponent for Novak than Sasha..
I actually like both Dominik and Sasha…I would love to see either one of them wining this AO title but it is close to impossible with well rested Novak on the other side of the net, who we all know how great and focused is when he is in the final…
Actually Thiem has a good H2H vs Djoko, 4-6, at least better than against Rafa at 5-9 now. He’s 1-3 vs Djoko on the HCs but all 3 of Djoko’s wins were prior to 2017, and Thiem had beaten Djoko in their latest HC encounter at WTF last year.
Thiem has really improved on the HCs and also his overall game – his speed and movement, his retrieving abilities, his movement to the net, his raw power.
I think he stands a chance against Djoko; Djoko doesn’t seem to be on fire, against a less than 100% Fed, he still had to work hard to win even though it’s in straight sets. I think he looked a little fatigued, but with two days of rest, he should be fine for the final, so if Thiem wishes to have any chances against Djoko, he has to beat Sasha ASAP.
Good fight from Roger given he wasn’t 100%. Let’s go Nole. Number 17 coming up!
I stopped watching after Djokovic won the first. It’s getting a bit old watching these players cave into Djokovic everytime. #GROUNDHOGDAY
How is Djoko not the overwhelming favorite in a AO final. Apart from the 2012 final, which final has even gone 5 sets? He is probably the next surest thing after Rafa at rg in a final. Djoker in 4 in the final against either player