First round
Nadal over Estrella Burgos in 3, L. Mayer over Jarry in 4
Coric over Millman in 5, Lorenzi over Dzumhur in 4
Schwartzman over Lajovic in 4, Halys over Ruud in 4
Dolgopolov over Haider-Maurer in 3, Ebden over Isner in 5
Carreno Busta over Kubler in 3, Simon over Copil in 4
Jaziri over Caruso in 4, Muller over Delbonis in 4
Youzhny over Cuevas in 5, Harrison over Sela in 3
Sousa over Brown in 5, Cilic over Pospisil in 4
Dimitrov over in Novak 3, Ymer over McDonald in 4
Bhambri over Baghdatis in 4, Ferrer over Rublev in 5
Kyrgios over Dutra Silva in 3, Troicki over Bolt in 4
Shapovalov over Tsitsipas in 4, Tsonga over King in 3
Anderson over Edmund in 3, Istomin over Herbert in 4
Melzer over Basilashvili in 5, Pouille over Bemelmans in 4
Kohlschreiber over Nishioka in 3, Seppi over Moutet in 3
Djere over Karlovic in 4, Sugita over Sock in 4
Thiem over Pella in 4, Johnson over Kudla in 4
Vesely over Safranek in 4, Mannarino over Berrettini in 3
Verdasco over Bautista Agut in 5, Marterer over Stebe in 5
Chardy over Sandgren in 4, Berankis over Wawrinka in 4
Djokovic over Young in 3, Monfils over Munar in 3
Smyczek over Popyrin in 4, Donaldson over Ramos-Vinolas in 4
Chung over M. Zverev in 4, Kokkinakis over Medvedev in 5
Gojowyczk over Kukushkin in 4, A. Zverev over Fabbiano in 3
Goffin over Bachinger in 3, Daniel over Benneteau in 4
F. Mayer over Donskoy in 5, Fognini over Zeballos in 4
Berdych over de Minaur in 5, Paire over Garcia-Lopez in 3
Khachanov over Polansky in 3, Del Potro over Tiafoe in 3
Lopez over Querrey in 5, Fucsovics over Albot in 4
Thompson over Kicker in 4, Raonic over Lacko in 4
Gasquet over Kavcic in 3, Haase over Sonego in 3
Struff over Kwon in 3, Federer over Bedene in 3
Second round
Nadal over L. Mayer in 4
Lorenzi over Coric in 5
Schwartzman over Halys in 3
Dolgopolov over Ebden in 4
Simon over Carreno Busta in 4
Muller over Jaziri in 4
Harrison over Youzhny in 4
Cilic over Sousa in 3
Dimitrov over Ymer in 3
Ferrer over Bhambri in 3
Kyrgios over Troicki in 3
Shapovalov over Tsonga in 4
Anderson over Istomin in 4
Pouille over Melzer in 3
Seppi over Kohlschreiber in 5
Sugita over Djere in 4
Thiem over Johnson in 4
Mannarino over Vesely in 3
Verdasco over Marterer in 3
Chardy over Berankis in 4
Djokovic over Monfils in 4
Donaldson over Smyczek in 4
Chung over Kokkinakis in 4
Zverev over Gojowyczk in 3
Goffin over Daniel in 3
Fognini over F. Mayer in 4
Berdych over Paire in 4
Del Potro over Khachanov in 3
Lopez over Fucsovics in 4
Raonic over Thompson in 4
Gasquet over Haase in 5
Federer over Struff in 3
Third round
Nadal over Lorenzi in 3
Dolgopolov over Schwartzman in 5
Simon over Muller in 4
Cilic over Harrison in 3
Dimitrov over Ferrer in 4
Kyrgios over Shapovalov in 4
Anderson over Pouille in 4
Seppi over Sugita in 5
Thiem over Mannarino in 4
Verdasco over Chardy in 4
Djokovic over Donaldson in 3
A. Zverev over Chung in 4
Goffin over Fognini in 3
Del Potro over Berdych in 4
Lopez over Raonic in 5
Federer over Gasquet in 3
Fourth round
Nadal over Dolgopolov in 3
Cilic over Simon in 5
Kyrgios over Dimitrov in 4
Anderson over Seppi in 4
Thiem over Verdasco in 5
Djokovic over A. Zverev in 4
Goffin over Del Potro in 4
Federer over Lopez in 3
Quarterfinals
Cilic over Nadal in 4
Kyrgios over Anderson in 4
Djokovic over Thiem in 4
Federer over Goffin in 3
Semifinals
Kyrgios over Cilic in 4
Federer over Djokovic in 4
Final
Federer over Kyrgios in 4
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who ya got?
1st quarter – Nadal over Simon
I don’t think Nadal is 100 percent, but his draw is really good, maybe if he felt poorly he could lose to Dolgo or maybe hmm Millman? but he would have to be in a really bad shape. As for the second quarterfinalist here I give chances to Simon/Cilic/Harrison, exactly in that order. I actually have Cilic losing to Ryan Harrison but I guess it all depends on how Cilic plays and he is the only one of those three I would pick over Nadal in the quarters. So Nadal comes out unless he has to face peak Cilic.
2nd quarter
Dimitrov over Anderson
I picked Kyrgios so many times that I lost any trust I had in him. The semifinalist here will probably come from that blockbuster Dimitrov/Kyrgios meeting and while Dimitrov basically can’t lose before that match, when it comes to Kyrgios anything can happen. Anderson has a great draw and a good chance to advance if he meets Kyrgios in the quarters, not that good of a chance if it’s Dimitrov.
3rd quarter
Zverev over Bautista Agut
Don’t believe in Wawrinka, hate Thiem’s hard court game so I actually picked Bautista Agut to reach quarters here. This is a very risky pick as he might lose to Verdasco in the first but I didn’t like how Nando played in Sydney and I just think he is not in good enough form to beat Agut. I’m really amazed by how many people think Djokovic will actually come back super strong. I’m not saying he won’t, just that it’s highly unlikely. Federer’s comeback was a one in a million thing and his injuries were long gone at that time while Djokovic felt the pain in his elbow was too big for him to play like two weeks ago lol. Zverev has been poor at slams but he played great last year and had chances to beat Nadal, so I think with this draw he should breakthrough to his first semis.
4th quarter
Federer over Goffin
This is the quarter that everyone has pretty much the same picks in. Federer has no real threats before the quarters and Goffin/Del Potro should be strong enough to get to the fourth round. Goffin/Del Potro is pretty much 50/50 to me and I guess whoever comes through loses to Fed anyway.
semis
Dimitrov over Nadal
Federer over Zverev
I feel pretty bad about putting that unsure Nadal in the semis but his draw is one of those which allow a slightly-injured and a little rusty player to capitalize. If Dimitrov gets into semis, he should have enough rhythm and confidence to get the revenge for last year’s thriller.
Zverev can trouble Fed, take a set for sure, but I can’t see him beating him. Would be really surprised if Djokovic got here.
Final
Federer over Dimitrov
20!!!!!!!!!!!
Federer can win it if his fitness is in place.
Kyrgios/Dimitrov, Zverev can too.
Nadal and Delpo, if fully fit can too! I have them above all others!
Agree. I just didn’t include Nadal there, because I am not sure of his knee. I can see Kyrgios or Dimitrov stopping him if he’s not 100%.
I correctly predicted Ricky’s finalists:
nadline10 JANUARY 13, 2018 AT 10:19 AM
Let me preempt Ricky’s final pick:
Federer over Kyrgios
I have to admit, Ricky picking Cilic to beat Rafa in the QF never entered my head for a nano second. Wonders never cease.
All of the ESPN ‘experts’ have picked Federer. It seems as if ‘experts’ were left licking their wounds after Federer won it last year and not one of them picked him.
Well, my first thought was that Cilic might be a stumbling block for Rafa… it all depends on their respective shapes. The surface should favor Cilic – if he’s in a good physical and mental shape, that is.I really have no hunches right now. I need to see the players perform first. Tomorrow we will know a bit more.
As to Kyrgios making it into the final – this isn’t about his talent. This is about Kyrgios’ body and mind needing to remain intact for six consecutive best-of-five matches. Seems to be a tall order. I believe it when I see it, lol!
Little foot gets it.
Ricky prematurely jumping on the Nick bandwagon.
I hope Kyrgios finds his way and he’s on the right path but too soon Ricky. Toooo soon.
#RememberHerbert
Hawkeye, quite improbably I have developed a soft spot for Kyrgios. I used to view him as an insufferable immature brat – and so he was. But he was and still is also very young. Now I see him more as a great but complicated talent who is settled with a fragile mind and unfortunately also a fragile body. But these days he is more hurting himself than anybody else. And I appreciate his often brutal honesty. I would be thrilled if he eventually manages to get his stuff together and put his talent to good use. But, as you said, it might be too early, and there have also been reports that he has a bothersome knee. Of course he was good enough to win against Harrison anyway. But the upcoming AO are a different kettle of fish.
Guessing Kyrgios might have had a tough childhood but I don’t remember the deets on that one.
I’m cheering for him to live up to his potential because that would be a huge success story and I love to watch what he’s capable of. He sounded and looked very professional in his pre tournament presser with a very respectful attitude and thoughtful answers. Quite the departure from two years ago.
As far as I know Tomic is the one with a really shitty childhood because of his abusive father. Last time I looked Kyrgios described his childhood as a fairly normal middle class upbringing. He mentioned that he was very close to his granny who took care of him because his mother’s job caused her to be absent a lot. He said he was very depressed when she died and still misses her.
But I’m not all that familiar with Kyrgios’ childhood and might’ve missed something. If he gets his act together eventually it would indeed be a great success story.
I think his dad was a bit of a hothead too. Ran into som problems at Wimby I believe.
No way Nadal loses to Cilic in a best of 5 match. He will be fresh from his relatively easy matches. Reckon it’ll be a nadal-Fed/Delpo final
Delpo has zero chance against Fed on the slick AO court custom built for Him.
I agree. I should add my often vented pov that even on the slower surface of last year’s USO Fed should’ve never lost to Delpo – and despite his bothersome back he probably wouldn’t have lost if Rafa hadn’t waited in the semis.
As to Rafa’s chances against Fed if they really meet in the final: Obviously Rafa will only make it into the final if he’s in great shape and manages to find his groove. And then anything can happen – no matter who his opponent will be. But if it is Fed, Roger will still have the speedy court and their more recent history on his side. But both need to win six matches while staying healthy before we can even start to assess this.
I think that if Rafa makes it through his section to the finals, then he will learn from last year and not play so cautiously against Federer like he did last year.
No one, Rafa included, can beat Federer by playing timid. And that’s what Rafa did at critical moments in last year’s final.
Federer has a history of bowing out when doubting his game just before a potential match against Rafa or Nole.
2013 and 2017 USO and defaulting the WTF final against Nole to name three.
Littlefoot, the way you put it, why Fed should’ve never lost to Delpo? Delpo did beat Fed in the 2009 final to win his USO trophy, you talked as if Delpo had no hope vs Fed! Delpo was more than capable of beating Fed at the USO!
Why that when Rafa was waiting in the SF, Fed would want to lose in the QF? To avoid Rafa? Really?
Yup. Federer basically admitted as much with some of his comments about that loss and avoiding Rafa in the process. Said he would have most likely lost against Rafa anyways. That speaks volumes about his motivation there especially in light of other matches I mentioned.
Totally agree. I think that Fed would’ve won at the USO 2017 against Delpo if Rafa hadn’t waited in the semis. As Hawkeye said, Fed even admitted as much.
I truly think that Fed at the USO 2017 wanted to avoid an in-form Rafa, because he himself wasn’t in such a great shape. He wanted to keep his latest string of wins against Rafa intact. And he didn’t want to make history by having been beaten by Rafa at all slams at least once. I think he would’ve won against Delpo if Rafa hadn’t been lurking in the semis.
I don’t know of course if this was a conscious or subconscious process.
2009 is a long time ago. Delpo hasn’t been the same player anymore for a long time.
He said as much when he defaulted the wtf final to Nole.
Didn’t say he couldn’t play but that he couldn’t win.
Didn’t Fed also pull out of his WTF final against Nole because he wanted to conserve strength for the upcoming Davis Cup final?
I remember that he has been severely criticized for that move. I have to say that I can understand him to a certain degree. It was Fed’s one and only chance to win the Davis Cup, whereas he had zero chance to win against Nole. Still, I think Rafa would’ve acted differently.
You don’t usually have such crazy opinions, littlefoot. Why on earth would Fed have been afraid to face Rafa at USO? True, he said -after the fact- that he doubted his chances in general at USO due to injury, but that’s a far cry from giving up mid-match against delpo, or not wanting to play Rafa.
Even at RG, if (totally hypothetically) Fed knew that he could make another final, I’m sure he would want another chance at Rafa even if he rated his odds of victory low.
Fed never should have conceded to Nole at WTF. That was purely to conserve strength for DC, and imo was unsportsmanlike and wrong. He was exhausted from the semis but not injured. He probably would have lost to Novak, but he should have played.
Joe, I don’t know if my opinion is crazy or not. Aren’t we all entitled to have some crazy ideas, lol? But I do believe that these things happen more often than we as outsiders are aware of, and I don’t judge it. I formed my opinion because of the strange course of Fed’s match against Delpo, because of his truly untypical mistakes and because of what Fed himself said. He definitely said that he probably wouldn’t have won against Rafa anyway. Since he felt like this he had very little to gain from winning against Delpo except a few measly points for making the semis instead of the quarters. This should’ve at least influenced his attitude during the match in the same way it had influenced his match against Novak in the 2011 semis, when he was – according to his own words –
distracted at crucial moments by the idea that Rafa was waiting in the final.
I think if Rafa had lost his quarterfinal, Fed’s match against Delpo would’ve taken a very different course because then Fed would’ve even had a realistic chance of winning the USO, considering how the bottom draw had collapsed. Also, Fed had let on this year how it had hurt him over the years to have constantly lost against Rafa. Last year he impressively turned the tide. I don’t think he was eager to see that series of wins interrupted by a probable loss at the USO. That said, things might’ve been different if Fed had been fully himself at the USO. He clearly wasn’t because of his back.
As to the WTF – yes, conceding the final to Novak wasn’t the greatest idea, although I can understand that he wanted to conserve energy for the Davis Cup final, because that was probably his one and only chance to win that salad bowl. But it would’ve been better not to play the WTF at all and give another player the chance to play in order to enable a regular tournament and not to deprive the audience of a final match.
Btw, some have argued that Rafa shoudn’t have played at all at last year’s WTF since he had already decided to quit because of his bum knee after his match against Goffin – or so he said. Why do you think he even played that one match? Would he really also have quit if he had won?
Well said littlefoot..
Personally, I think Fed was slightly injured but not badly at USO. He could well have beaten Nadal had he gotten by delpo; he had beaten him 4 straight times on HC at that point. Who knows?
I think Rafa’s knee injury was more serious at WTF, and I’m still not convinced that he’s injured. But he badly wants to win that tournament, and I think he though he’d give it a try. I’m sure he liked his chances against Goffin, and imo he would have continued to play if he had won.
Sorry, I meant to say: I’m still not convinced Rafa’s *not* still injured.
Joe, we will find out very soon, if Rafa is still compromised or not.
As to the other bone of contention – if Fed reeally wanted to avoid Rafa at last year’s USO, at least on a subconscious level: while I stick to it, I can’t prove it of course. But I do believe these things happen more often than we are aware of. And from a player’s pov it often does make sense to avoid a battle.
Dim Dim will beat Kyrgios.
Doubling down on my 2017 pick, unless Rafa makes the final, Federer FTW.
#NID
#CongratsToMe
I should add…
#ReturnOfTheWeskEra
You know I’ll have these up very soon lol
If Delpo doesnt have chance against Fed, you think Rafa has better chance? Why?
On a slick court, its harder to counterpunch, more so for Rafa who tends to play from way behind the baseline. Delpo at least can rely on his raw power to blow anyone off the court.
Fed may play his net rushing game to take away Delpo’s time but if Delpo can serve well and hits his usual awesome FH, he’ll be hard to break too. Do remember Shanghai, when Fed had a hard time beating Delpo in the SF whilst he had an easier time vs Rafa in the final, though Rafa had his knee injury then. Shanghai is also a fast HC.
If Fed meets Delpo in the QF at the AO, I dont doubt that Delpo will have the fitness to go the distance with Fed (after seeing how a sick Delpo beat Thiem in five sets at the USO, and then went four sets vs Fed and then Rafa). According to weather forecast for second week of AO, its not that high in temperature, in the 20s, so I doubt the weather will have impact on Delpo. It very much depends on how they and their respective opponents play in the earlier rounds, leading up to their encounter.
Both Fed and Rafa had tough matches at the AO last year; they had tough draw back then. I do feel the draw plays a part in determining their physical conditions should they reach the final to face each other; both are not that young anymore.
Rafa moves better than Delpo. Fed is no match against Rafa on any surface when Rafa is confident.
Don’t forget that Rafa handled Federer at the WTF when he was playing with confidence.
Delpo is not the player he was when he beat fed in the USO final. Federer is at least as good as he was then if not better.
Rafa is a better adapter than Delpo.
That’s my opinion why.
Rafa beat Fed in WTF in 2013 when Fed was struggling. That was one of is worst WTF performances, he alomst lost to DelPo , the day before and had a very long SF.
I think Fed will be very confident against Rafa till Rafa gets one back. However, its too far a stretch to think of these two only. We can have a new champion or finalist this time around.
Hawkeye, your first two sentences may be true in the past but too bad, Rafa lost to Fed a few times in a row last year and that changed everything. Fed may be the confident one when the two meet again. Unless they meet on the slower surfaces, Rafa will need all the help to beat Fed on a quick surface, my opinion.
Rafa is not a very confident guy, all these consecutive losses will affect him, just like when he was losing to Djoko consecutively during 2011.
Well said, Lucky.
Yes, Joe and Lucky, that could well be true. The mental dynamics between Rafa and Fed may have changed profoundly during the last season.
While I agree with most of your reasoning, we need to remember this: when Rafa beat Fed during the WTF 2013 – which is a long time ago now – Rafa was full of confidence after a stellar season while Fed was not at his best. Also, at the time the surface at the WTF, although indoors, was quite a bit slower than in the last two years. I remember that at the time some players and observers complained about a molasses-like surface. Like other courts it also has become faster since then.
As I said, if Rafa even makes it into the finals he must be in great shape, and then he can beat anybody. But all those recent losses against Fed might pray on his mind and diminish his confidence. He said himself that last year Team Rafa really liked their chances against Fed, and Rafa probably lost (narrowly) not so much because of a lack of confidence but because after his grueling match against Dimi he ran out of steam against a rested and admittedly great playing Fed. This year after all those losses last season the mental dynamics between the two would be very different. That said, I like Rafa’s chances against Fed better in a best-of-five match. It gives him time to settle in and use his great problem solving abilities.
I don’t think it was energy that lost Rafa the final last year.
He just got tight again up a break in the 5th and started hitting short balls to feds bh allowing fed to come over the top of them. That’s never worked for Rafa against Fed. He needs to keep fed pinned back to have continued success against Federer. Although he finished no 1, Rafa’s confidence, although improved compared to 2014-16, was still not where it needed to be to dominate Federer like he used to.
Again, IF he gets there, I think that he’s too adaptive to let fed beat him there again, regardless of the court. He should have last year but let it slip away.
Rafa said later that he got tight against Fed at last year’s final but that he also ran out of steam. And Team Rafa was apparently taken by surprise that Fed played at such a constantly high level against Rafa and didn’t implode. So, the loss happened because of a combination of several things.
While I’m not at all confident that it will happen, a re-match of last year’s final would be very interesting. Rafa has a tendency of getting tight and doubtful when he has accumulated a string of losses against the same player (although so far it has only happened against Nole and Fed). But he also has the ability to figure things out and turn the tide eventually.
Btw, we still don’t know how he would fare now against an in-form Novak, since he didn’t meet an in-form Novak last year.
I don’t think an in form Nole is in the cards atm.
An in form Nole would beat Fed.
Don’t forget the period where Fognini had his number.
No.
Rafa’s demons had his number and many journeymen took full advantage.
Well said littlefoot.
Obviously, should Rafa and Fed really meet in the final, their respective paths into the final and their time spent oncourt will become more important than it would be with younger players.
At least last year’s situation where Fed had one more day for recuperation than Rafa, can’t repeat itself since Rafa leads the top half of the draw and plays already tomorrow. Good for Rafa or whoever makes it out of the top half. But I still wish the organizers would opt for a better scheduling solution.
BTW, the owner of this site is shocked that scheduling does not favour Fed. Favouritism towards Fed has obviously become a norm. 🙄
R.Dimon, Jan.12: “genuinely shocked that the Australian Open is giving the top half 2 days off before the final and not Federer.
They must be banking on Kyrgios making it there instead of Nadal.”
Augusta, the idea that the AO organizers want to make things a bit easier for Kyrgios crossed my mind,too, lol! I also still believe that the change to a slicker surface which was implemented last year, was mostly done for their home grown talent, who thrives on faster surfaces. That Fed also liked it a lot was certainly not detrimental, though…
I think, maybe, just maybe, the organisers have been shamed to being called out yet again for smoothing Federer’s path.
I thought Federer transcended nationality, and is supposed to be more popular than home players wherever he treads in his ballet shoes.
Haweyes predictions scare me as they are always so accurate, just wish she would predict a Rafa win, and the lottery numbers for me lol 😉
48 7 24 9 11 20
#YoureWelcome
Sorry Hawkeyes ….
Mind you HE did say Fed would beat anyone in the final other than Nadal, on another thread 🙂
Read Hawkeye’s post of Jan 14, 2018 at 1.06 PM.
He said….. unless Rafa makes the final, Federer FTW.
Just really dont want lightning to strike twice 🙁
I don’t think Kyrgios will beat Dimi. I do not see Kyrgios going that far here.
I am also not convinced that Novak is ready to go deep here. If Rafa gets to the quarterfinals then I think he can beat Cilic.
I think Delpo should do well here, but not sure if he get to the finals. I am not sure that Goffin will beat him.
It won’t because I don’t see Rafa making the final tbh.
Most likely the winner of Dimi/Kyrgios will take him down. The knee is the issue still IMO. Elbow for Nole. Murray’s hip. Stan’s knee.
Fed’s longevity is the greatest of all time in this physically demanding age of tennis.
But with all of the injuries and mediocre next generation, Return of the Weak Era.
Zverev will take advantage but he’s not of age to seriously threaten to win slams just yet. Nor is Kyrgios. Dim Dim is the biggest threat among the rest of the pack at the moment.
Nothing against Dimi, but if Dimi is the greatest threat besides Fed on faster courts right now, we’re truly in a fairly weak area.
I never bet, but if I would bet I would put my money on Fed reaching the final. While Rafa has all the tools to be there, too, in a fortnight, I’m also not convinced that he is really fit enough, yet, even if his knee doesn’t bother him atm. I would love to be proven wrong, of course. And maybe I will change my tune after a couple of rounds have told us more. We still have no idea at all about Nole’s true form.
I don’t do predictions but I’ll go as far as saying, if Rafa makes the QF, he’ll beat Cilic. No question.
I Predict Rafa over Zverev in the final 😉
luckystar JANUARY 14, 2018 AT 2:04 PM
“If Delpo doesnt have chance against Fed, you think Rafa has better chance? Why?”
USO
Federer lost to Delpo – 7-5 3-6 7-6(8) 6-4
Rafa beat Delpo – 4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2
Fed was not in the best shape there lol.
Federer wasn’t in the best shape. ROFL
What has Rafa beating Delpo got to do with Rafa beating Fed??
Lucky, nothing of course.
I haven’t looked it up, but doesn’t a healthy Rafa normally win against Delpo, even if their matches are sometimes very tight? The last loss against Delpo was, if I recall it correctly, in a super tight match at the Olympics 2016, when Rafa’s wrist wasn’t completely healed, yet, and when he was also exhausted because he had been playing doubles as well.
Littlefoot, what are you talking about? I was asking Nadine the question, not you.
I misread what you said. I thought you said if Fed couldn’t beat Delpo Rafa would have no chance. My bad.
Sorry to have buttted in, lucky. I just wanted to say, that I also don’t see that Rafa winning against Delpo tells us anything about his ability to win against Fed – even if Fed has lost against Delpo at the USO while Rafa proceded to win his subsequent match against Delpo convincingly. The dynamics between these players are too different.
Yeah, let’s not forget that Nadal was playing singles, doubles, AND mixed doubles.
nadline, I really think the USO can’t tell us anything about Fed’s chances against Delpo should they meet at the coming AO. The surface at the USO wasn’t custom tailored to Fed’s preferences and he also wasn’t in his best shape. He struggled in almost all of his matches, but even in his dimished shape he should have beaten Delpo. The match was more than curious.
I really like Delpo, but I honestly think he isn’t a contender for slam titles anymore, although he’s always good for a great match and the occasional rousing upset. But as Hawkeye has pointed out, he has the big disadvantage of not being a great mover – unlike Rafa who still is one of the best movers on the tour. And that’s not just because he is still pretty fast; it’s because of his great strategic anticipation.
Btw, Christopher Clarey has written an interesting article in the NYT about Rafa’s tactics and why his tendency to receive service from way back behind the baseline might work for him just fine against most opponents.
Littlefoot, you said Fed struggled through his matches and yet you think Delpo couldn’t and shouldn’t beat him?? What are you talking about? You think Delpo was so bad that a Fed playing so poorly could still beat him?????
And you think Fed would want to lose a match at a slam just because he think he couldn’t beat Rafa in the next round? Are you doubting Fed’s efforts? Even though I’m not a Fed fan, but to think that Fed would chicken out like that at a slam is really ridiculous. I mean, is it any better losing to Delpo in the QF than losing to a higher ranked Rafa in the SF?
Why would Fed bother about losing to Rafa at all the four slams, when he had already lost to Djoko at all four?( he was beaten by Djoko multiple times at each of the slams except the FO when he was beaten once there by Djoko). Was it better losing to Djoko than losing to Rafa, when everyone already knows that Rafa is Fed’s nemesis?
Luckystar, it’s just my opinion that Fed wanted to avoid a loss against Rafa at the USO. I formed this opinion partly on what Fed himself said after the match. Who knows – this may well have played out subconsciously – as it has at the USO 2011, when Roger lost a spectacular semi against Nole. Roger later said that the knowledge of Rafa waiting in the final had influenced his game negatively at crucial moments. Roger was profoundly hurt because of his many losses to Rafa. He said so himself. Last year he finally managed to turn the tide. I strongly believe that he didn’t want to spoil this by a loss against Rafa at the USO.
It’s true that Roger also lost by now at all slams to Novak. But his head-to-head with Nole was never as lopsided as his head-to-head with Rafa. And it only became negative when Fed was past his peak. it never became a defining narrative.
Not for one minute do I think that Fed lost to Delpo in the USO quarterfinals because he did not want to face Rafa. I don’t think it’s in his DNA to do it. I think he lost simply because he had not looked good since he started the USO. Tiafoe and Youzhny pushing him to five sets, was shocking. But Fed was not moving well and his back seemed still but be right. He had easier matches after that because his opponents did not show up to play. But Delpo proved to be too much for a sub-par Fed. He said afterwards that he was not right physically, mentally and his game was also not right. That’s why he lost.
Fed’s back still seemed to not be right. *
Well this conversation isn’t even relevant imo because I don’t think Del Po is getting past Goffin.
All the more Fed would not want the H2H vs Djoko to become another H2H like that vs Rafa, dont you think? Afterall, its Djoko who’s preventing Fed from winning at the slams in those three years prior to 2017.
First round
Nadal over Estrella Burgos in 3, L. Mayer over Jarry in 4
Coric over Millman in 5, Dzumur over Lorenzi in 4
Schwartzman over Lajovic in 4, Halys over Ruud in 4
Dolgopolov over Haider-Maurer in 3, Isner over Ebden in 4
Carreno Busta over Kubler in 3, Simon over Copil in 4
Jaziri over Caruso in 4, Muller over Delbonis in 4
Youzhny over Cuevas in 5, Harrison over Sela in 3
Sousa over Brown in 4, Cilic over Pospisil in 4
Dimitrov over in Novak 3, Ymer over McDonald in 5
Baghdatis over Bhambri in 4, Ferrer over Rublev in 5
Kyrgios over Dutra Silva in 3, Troicki over Bolt in 4
Shapovalov over Tsitsipas in 4, Tsonga over King in 3
Anderson over Edmund in 4, Istomin over Herbert in 4
Melzer over Basilashvili in 5, Pouille over Bemelmans in 4
Kohlschreiber over Nishioka in 3, Seppi over Moutet in 3
Karlovic over Djere in 4, Sock over Sugita in 4
Thiem over Pella in 4, Johnson over Kudla in 4
Vesely over Safranek in 4, Mannarino over Berrettini in 3
Bautista Agut over Verdasco in 5, Marterer over Stebe in 5
Chardy over Sandgren in 4, Wawrinka over Berankis in 4
Djokovic over Young in 3, Monfils over Munar in 3
Smyczek over Popyrin in 4, Donaldson over Ramos-Vinolas in 5
Chung over M. Zverev in 5, Medvedev over Kokkinakis in 5
Gojowyczk over Kukushkin in 4, A. Zverev over Fabbiano in 3
Goffin over Bachinger in 3, Benneteau over Daniel in 5
F. Mayer over Donskoy in 5, Fognini over Zeballos in 4
Minaur over Berdych in 5, Paire over Garcia-Lopez in 3
Khachanov over Polansky in 3, Del Potro over Tiafoe in 4
Querrey over Lopez in 5, Fucsovics over Albot in 4
Thompson over Kicker in 4, Raonic over Lacko in 4
Gasquet over Kavcic in 3, Haase over Sonego in 3
Struff over Kwon in 3, Federer over Bedene in 3
Second round
Nadal over L. Mayer in 3
Coric over Dzumhur in 5
Schwartzman over Halys in 4
Dolgopolov over Ebden in 4
Simon over Carreno Busta in 4
Muller over Jaziri in 4
Harrison over Youzhny in 4
Cilic over Sousa in 3
Dimitrov over Ymer in 3
Ferrer over Baghdatis in 4
Kyrgios over Troicki in 4
Tsonga over Shapovalov in 5
Anderson over Istomin in 4
Pouille over Melzer in 3
Kohlschreiber over Seppi in 4
Sock over Karlovic in 4
Thiem over Johnson in 4
Mannarino over Vesely in 3
Bautista Agut over Marterer in 3
Wawrinka over Chardy in 5
Monfils over Djokovic in 5
Donaldson over Smyczek in 4
Medvedev over Chung in 5
A.Zverev over Gojowyczk in 3
Goffin over Benneteau in 4
Fognini over F. Mayer in 4
Minaur over Paire in 4
Del Potro over Khachanov in 4
Querrey over Fucsovics in 4
Raonic over Thompson in 5
Gasquet over Haase in 4
Federer over Struff in 3
Third round
Nadal over Coric in 4
Schwartzman over Dolgopolov in 5
Simon over Muller in 5
Cilic over Harrison in 4
Dimitrov over Ferrer in 4
Kyrgios over Tsonga in 5
Anderson over Pouille in 5
Sock over Kohlschreiber in 5
Thiem over Mannarino in 4
Bautista Agut over Wawrinka in 4
Monfils over Donaldson in 4
A. Zverev over Medvedev in 4
Goffin over Fognini in 4
Minaur over Del Potro in 5
Raonic over Querrey in 5
Federer over Gasquet in 3
Fourth round
Nadal over Schwartzman in 4
Cilic over Simon in 4
Dimitrov over Kyrgios in 5
Anderson over Sock in 5
Bautista Agut over Thiem in 5
Monfils over A. Zverev in 5
Goffin over Minaur in 4
Federer over Raonic in 4
Quarterfinals
Nadal over Cilic in 4
Dimitrov over Anderson in 4
Monfils over Bautista Agut in 4
Federer over Goffin in 4
Semifinals
Dimitrov over Nadal in 4
Federer over Monfils in 4
Final
Federer over Dimitrov in 4
Fedal deserve to be the favorites, but I feel that it’s still a relatively open GS. Despite neither really having a hard draw, injury could suddenly strike, or it could lead to five-setters which catch up with them.
I hope Djokovic comes back strong, but I’m not sold on him being near 100% mentally or physically. He loves the AO and he’s had a nice break so I can’t count him out, but I’m definitely picking Dimitrov for 3rd favourite. Last year he proved he could go deep, he’s fit, and he’ll endure BO5 matches. Delpo’s also a chance, but yet again, it’s injury dependent. Hope Kyrgios does well but I’m not going to hold my breath on that one. Zverev is more than a dangerous floater, but I’m not sure he has it in him to knock out a couple of top guys if they’re near their best.
Roger Federer will definitely win the title.
R. Nadal is fitter/healthier than he is letting, no one should underestimate this guy or treat him differently, he is fit and ready but won’t succeed in this tournament.
R. Federer also needs to be careful he is the Top Dog and everybody wants to take him out.
N. Djokovic will do well in this tournament, he will surprise many.
I hope you all enjoy this tournament, please don’t go crazy 😂.
Racist misogynist homophobe white stanley. You have bigger personal problems than tennis.
Totally gratuitous, Hawkeye. I’m going to start calling you out for this.
Ricky, imo this sort of thing shouldn’t be tolerated, on either side. It makes the site unpleasant for all of us.
You remind me of Trump and his “Many sides” quote.
Joe Smith 👍.
I see this Hawkeye still hasn’t changed much. Whenever I log in, he’s getting into an argument with someone or the other whilst proclaiming his greatness or whatever.
Rafa has a great draw,which will allow him to put himself into good form for the later rounds,Coric can be a good test in R3 and Isner is always dangerous in medium-fast conditions if his serve’s on fire. If Rafa’s able to get to the QF,I don’t believe he’s losing to Cilic,who always has been so poor at Melbourne,so Rafa has everything on his side to reach at least the SF,if the knee injury doesn’t resurface.
If Dimitrov is to make a good run like last year,he will need to up his game from Brisbane,he played far from his best there. I don’t think Kyrgios will go far,he’s yet to prove himself at in terms of consistency over BO5 matches and he’s not a mental fortress. Besides that,he doesn’t have that great draw to breaktrough,there are many players who can take him out before the QF,besides Dimitrov.
Stan is a big question mark right now,he injured his shoulder while practicing and I don’t believe he’s going far than R3,it’s a big chance for RBA or Thiem to make the QF.
Djoko’s draw is tough,facing Monfils in 2R and Zverev in 4R is not good for anyone,and even if he’s able to get to the QF he can be worn down and lose there. However,IF somehow he gets to play at a very good level,he can make the SF,but I don’t expect it.
Delpo has been awarded with the Death Draw,he will need to be playing very well since the 1R and will be facing very tricky players until the 4R,so I expect Goffin to make the QF.
Federer got a very good draw,a routine first week is on the cards,however the second week can be tricky,facing Raonic in 4R,Goffin/Delpo in QF and a possible SF against Zverev/Djoko makes it a hard way for the swiss.
I predict we’ll have another epic Fedal final!
Gaviria,
I liked your analysis of the relative prospects of the key players.
I think it’s possible for Rafa to play himself into form with his early round matches. If the knee is okay, then he should not be underestimated. If Rafa gets to the quarterfinals, that means he’s playing good tennis. He can take out Cilic if he’s played himself into form.
I agree with you about Kyrgios and that’s why I don’t expect him to go deep here. He does not have the consistency and also the mental focus and discipline to win a slam yet.
I did not know about the shoulder injury with Stan. As far as Novak, i am just not sure where he’s at. I don’t see him getting to the semis. Delpo has the game, but he always seems to have something going on with him. Physically I don’t think he can go the distance.
Everyone and his brother is picking Fed, but I am not so sure. We will have to wait and see.
Same here Gavrivia. I felt like picking Fedal was too predictable but I still had to go with it. Just couldn’t see either losing. For Rafa, I felt like if his injury is an issue, he could lose early to someone like Coric but I couldn’t pick Coric to beat him as Rafa has anyways been looking better and better in practice lately. And I felt that if Rafa goes to the second week, he’s gotta be fit and ready for anyone he’s playing. As for Roger, I don’t see anyone stopping him before finals. I got him over Rafa but it’s gonna be tough. Hopefully another epic as you said!!
First round:
Nadal over Estrella Burgos in 3
L. Mayer over Jarry in 3
Coric over Millman in 5
Lorenzi over Dzumhur in 5
Schwartzman over Lajovic in 4
Ruud over Halys in 5
Dolgopolov over Haider-Maurer in 3
Isner over Ebden in 4
Carreno Busta over Kubler in 4
Simon over Copil in 3
Caruso over Jaziri in 5
Muller over Delbonis in 3
Youzhny over Cuevas in 5
Harrison over Sela in 3
Brown over Sousa in 4
Cilic over Pospisil in 4
Dimitrov over Novak in 3
McDonald over Ymer in 5
Bhambri over Baghdatis in 4
Ferrer over Rublev in 5
Kyrgios over Dutra Silva in 3
Troicki over Bolt in 4
Shapovalov over Tsitsipas in 5
Tsonga over King in 3
Anderson over Edmund in 4
Istomin over Herbert in 5
Basilashvili over Melzer in 4
Pouille over Bemelmans in 4
Kohlschreiber over Nishioka in 3
Seppi over Moutet in 3
Karlovic over Djere in 4
Sugita over Sock in 4
Pella over Thiem in 5
Johnson over Kudla in 4
Vesely over Safranek in 3
Mannarino over Berrettini in 4
Bautista Agut over Verdasco in 4
Marterer over Stebe in 5
Chardy over Sandgren in 3
Wawrinka over Berankis in 4
Djokovic over Young in 3
Monfils over Munar in 3
Smyczek over Popyrin in 3
Donaldson over Ramos-Vinolas in 4
Chung over M. Zverev in 4
Medvedev over Kokkinakis in 4
Gojowczyk over Kukushkin in 3
A. Zverev over Fabbiano in 3
Goffin over Bachinger in 3
Benneteau over Daniel in 3
Donskoy over F. Mayer in 4
Fognini over Zeballos in 3
De Minaur over Berdych in 5
Paire over Garcia-Lopez in 3
Khachanov over Polansky in 4
Del Potro over Tiafoe in 3
Lopez over Querrey in 5
Fucsovics over Albot in 4
Thompson over Kicker in 3
Raonic over Lacko in 4
Gasquet over Kavcic in 3
Haase over Sonego in 3
Struff over Kwon in 3
Federer over Bedene in 3
Second round:
Nadal over L. Mayer in 3
Coric over Lorenzi in 4
Schwartzman over Ruud in 5
Dolgopolov over Isner in 4
Simon over Carreno Busta in 5
Muller over Caruso in 3
Harrison over Youzhny in 4
Cilic over Brown in 4
Dimitrov over McDonald in 3
Ferrer over Bhambri in 4
Kyrgios over Troicki in 3
Shapovalov over Tsonga in 4
Anderson over Istomin in 4
Pouille over Basilashvili in 4
Seppi over Kohlschreiber in 5
Sugita over Karlovic in 5
Johnson over Pella in 4
Mannarino over Vesely in 4
Bautista Agut over Marterer in 3
Wawrinka over Chardy in 5
Monfils over Djokovic in 4
Donaldson over Smyczek in 4
Chung over Medvedev in 4
A. Zverev over Gojowczyk in 3
Goffin over Benneteau in 3
Fognini over Donskoy in 4
De Minaur over Paire in 4
Del Potro over Khachanov in 3
Lopez over Fucsovics in 4
Raonic over Thompson in 5
Gasquet over Haase in 4
Federer over Struff in 3
Third round:
Nadal over Coric in 3
Dolgopolov over Schwartzman in 4
Muller over Simon in 4
Cilic over Harrison in 4
Dimitrov over Ferrer in 4
Kyrgios over Shapovalov in 3
Anderson over Pouille in 4
Seppi over Sugita in 4
Mannarino over Johnson in 4
Bautista Agut over Wawrinka in 4
Monfils over Donaldson in 3
A. Zverev over Chung in 5
Goffin over Fognini in 3
Del Potro over De Minaur in 3
Lopez over Raonic in 5
Federer over Gasquet in 3