A blockbuster quarterfinal between Rafael Nadal and Marin Cilic is on tap for Tuesday at the Australian Open. A more surprising one pits Grigor Dimitrov against Kyle Edmund. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Joey Hanf of Cliff Drysdale Tennis preview the two matchups and make their picks.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (6) Marin Cilic
Ricky: Cilic vs. Pablo Carreno Busta on Sunday was better than anyone could have expected. PCB threw everything he had at Cilic and the Croat came up with the necessary answers. On a relatively fast surface, he is once again looking like a slam title contender (just as he did at the 2014 U.S. Open and at Wimbledon in 2017). In my Wimbledon pre-tournament picks, I had Gilles Muller beating Nadal in the fourth round. When the time came, I changed it because of how good Nadal looked through three rounds. I’m not getting swindled into the same mistake again. The world No. 1 is playing well and has dropped only one set through four matches in Melbourne, but Cilic is playing too big for him right now on a hard court. After all, even Diego Schwartzman bullied Nadal around for a brief time on Sunday. Cilic in 4: 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(6).
Joey: The first real test for Nadal in this tournament will come on Tuesday, with Cilic the first player he has faced who has actual weapons that can hurt him. But Cilic, as is often the case, has not looked particularly reliable this fortnight. He has given up leads and struggled to close out matches that realistically should have been routine. And whenever you play Nadal, you have to be willing to go for it on the big points. I think Cilic will keep sets close because of Nadal’s insane return position but ultimately come up short when it matters most. The Spaniard’s serve has looked very good thus far, and the forehand doesn’t seem to be having any problems. Nadal would be smart to use a fair bit of slice and force the Croatian to generate his own pace. This lopsided head-to-head will only grow further apart. Nadal 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-5, 6-2.
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(3) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Kyle Edmund
Ricky: Dimitrov was awesome against Nick Kyrgios, four days after playing down to his competition in a five-set escape against Mackenzie McDonald. Once again heavily favored against an unseeded opponent, the world No. 3 will learn from his McDonald mistake and make sure to treat this match with the respect it deserves. After upsetting Kevin Anderson in the first round, Edmund has done what he failed to do at last year’s U.S. Open: capitalize on a favorable draw. But it hasn’t been easy. He needed five sets to outlast Nikoloz Basilashvili and took a medical timeout for a right shoulder issue during a four-set win over Andreas Seppi on Sunday. This is where the Brit’s Australian summer finally comes to an end. Dimitrov in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
Joey: I’m surprised by this quarterfinal; really thought we were getting another Kyrgios-Seppi clash. Edmund’s journey has been wild; he was literally running on fumes against Basilashivili. He began going for virtually every ball in that match, and he executed the same strategy against Seppi. Unfortunately for him, Dimitrov is one of the most athletic defenders in the world. Dimitrov had to play an extremely high level to beat Kyrgios, and I think that momentum should carry him through this one. While he wasn’t playing great early in the tournament, his confidence is growing. I am interested to see when this match is scheduled; Dimitrov heavily prefers night conditions where the ball doesn’t fly as much. Edmund has been playing the best tennis of his career, but it seems pretty clear his legs not quite there anymore. The Bulgarian will expose that. Dimitrov 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.
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who ya got?
Dimitrov in four and Nadal in five. I do agree that Cilic is looking like a contender and not many are really thinking that of him because of how under the radar he has been. But it does feel to me kind of like the US Open that he won where he is under the radar but serving huge then gets hotter and hotter as the tourney progresses. I still have Rafa getting through but after Cilic’s serving performances this tournament and Rafa’s struggles against Schwartzman, I think this could go either way. Head to head has me taking Rafa though.
Benny, Ricky choose afer all a player not named Nadal (aka Cilic), lol! So, my first interpretation of Ricky’s cryptic remark (“not Nadal in three”) wasn’t so far off.
It’s a bold prediction considering the history between the two players. Cilic’s last win over Rafa came more than 8 years ago (in Shanghai 2009) at a time when Rafa clearly was’t at his best, while Rafa’s last win over Cilic came just a couple of months ago (also in Shanghai). But Cilic has matured a lot since 2009 and Rafa is 31 now, While Rafa played well so far, he might still not be at his very best, and Cilic is flying under the radar. I still have Rafa for a hard fought win, mainly because of his superior mentality, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Cilic makes it.
Dimitrov in 4
Nadal in 5 (Cilic will not be able to mentally beat Rafa)
Rafa in four, Dimi in five. I think Rafa should get the night match so he’ll do better than in a day match. Dimi OTOH will struggle a bit in a day match and so Edmund (who played most of his matches during the day) will be able to push to go the distance.
Lucky, aren’t the night match conditions a tad slower than the day time conditions? I can’t remember when I read this but it would make sense.
It’s definitely an advantage to get a night match in Melbourne because of the often harsh day time conditions. Not for the two playing each other of course since they obviously face the same conditions. But it might become important in the next round for the advancing players.
At Fed’s age it should make a big difference. And yes, he is clearly favored by the organizers. That is quite evident. But I can understand they want that one of their biggest stars remains in the draw. But then, the same is probably true for Rafa. His match against Dzumhur was also no night match material, and since their local boy is out now, the tournament could do worse than sporting another Fedal final.
#AusOpen@AustralianOpen 45 minutes ago
Schedule Tues Jan 23:
RLA Day Session
Bryan Brothers vs Matkowski & Qureshi
Mertens vs Svitolina (NB 1pm)
Dimitrov vs Edmund (NB 2.30)
RLA Night Session
Nadal vs Cilic
Suarez Navarro vs Wozniacki
https://twitter.com/AustralianOpen/status/955295900347252736
Careno-Busta threw everything HE had at Cilic and it took Cilic 4 sets including 3 TBs to beat him. Let’s face it, as accomplished as Carena-Busta is, he doesn’t have Rafa’s tool box. Rafa would normally brush Careno-Busta off like fluff. So I wouldn’t use Careno-Busta as a benchmark.
I happen to agree with nadline. That is exactly how I saw that match. PCB was serving for a two sets to one lead in the third set. He was giving Cilic quite a battle until he lost it after failing to serve out the third set, getting blown out in the TB.
Rafa has one big advantage over Cilic and that is his mental strength. We have seen Cilic turn victory into defeat because he lost his focus. Rafa got a lot out of the match with Diego. He had to battle and raise his level of play and that will give him confidence moving forward. He needed to be tested. Rafa struggling against Diego in the fourth round not being match tough does not mean he will do the same against Cilic. Quite the opposite. I think Rafa will be ready.
Dimitrov in 4
Nadal in 3 (Nadal had won two matches against Cilic in straight sets last year – can’t see things had changed. Nadal seems very secure)
He was not secure in the first set thats for sure against S’man.
U tripping Monk boi
Dimitrov in 4. Edmund is just about out of gas, and Dimitrov has too much game for him.
Nadal in 5. The H2H can’t be ignored. Cilic has the game to beat Rafa, obviously, but he’s mentally weak. Nadal has been playing extremely well until the Diego match, but I expect him to up his game again for Cilic. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marin take it in a close one, though.
Like your reasoning for this matches.
Agree with your arguments, Joe. I can’t see Edmund winning against Dimi – even in a day match – which might be a slight advantage for Edmund. But I think Kyle will eventually run out of gas and courage against Dimi.
Cilic has most certainly the tools to hurt Rafa, but will he be able to use them? History says “No”! A couple of months ago Rafa even won in straight sets on fast hardcourt in Shanghai. But then again – nobody thought that Cilic would win his semifinal against Fed at the USO 2014. Cilic is probably at his best when he’s not in the spotlight. And while Rafa seems to be in a good shape. I’m not convinced, yet, that he’s in great shape. The upcoming match will tell…
Nadal in 3- not lost a set since Basel 2015 when Rafa was low in confidence. Cilic only beat him in 2009 when Rafa has a injury so I don’t think he can beat a fully fit Rafa
Dimitrov in 4- his overall game can beat Edmund even when on 80%
Not only was Rafa injured in Beijing in 2009, it was during the time his parents were splitting up. After the match, he said it’s hard to play when you are not mentally on court. I remember that match; Cilic was up something like 5:0 in the first 15 minutes, because Rafa wasn’t really ‘playing’.
Nadline, this 8 year old match from 2009 doesn’t tell us anything useful about that match-up. As you say, Rafa was totally out of sorts. But Cilic is also a different player.
littlefoot,
Rafa has won their last 5 conceding one set in total.
Of course nothing is written in stone and I hope Rafa brings his ‘A’ game.
I know! Even very recent history strongly suggests a Rafa win. But as you say: nothing is written in stone, and I’m not sure if Rafa is really already near his best. And last year against Fed we also thought that because of their lopsided h2h history is totally on Rafa’s side – or 2014 against Wawa. Rafa had never lost to Wawa before. Actually before AO 2014 Rafa had lost only one measly set in more than 10 matches against Wawa. Somehow the AO have become a bit of an unlucky slam for Rafa.
littlefoot AT 5:04 PM,
Rafa injured his back during the warm-up of the AO 2014 final. He was suffering from that injury (facet syndrome) all year round and underwent stem cell therapy at the end of 2014 (Oct-Nov.).
Rafa in four and Dimitrov also in four.
Rafa in 3; Dtrov in 3.
Anyone know if Rafa’s parents are friendly with each other now? I know they split up in 2009 but they seem pretty friendly when Rafa wins a match
Oliver, they have reunited long ago. Hopefully for better reasons than just helping Rafa’s career, lol!
They are back together again.
Rafa has been playing pretty well given he has not played a professional matches going into the tournament. It was a bit ugly from Rafa against Diego but mind you, Diego played like a one hell of a baseliner and he was not easy to put away.
Rafa was serving poorly the first two sets and he needs to hit better first serves. If he can do that, he will get past Cilic in 4 sets max in my view.
Rafa HATES humidity! It gets less humind after Weds I guess.
Thanks Little Foot! I thought that! So looking foreword to the Nadal-Cilic match. People are also underestimating Berdych against Federer
Wrong. Berdych is the biggest impediment to Fed reaching the final.
Fed in three vs Berdy. Berdy hasn’t been pushed. Delpo looked tired and injured and Foggy be Foggy.
#NID
Agree, Eugene. In fact, at this point I’d say Berdych is the biggest impediment to Fed winning the title. Berdych has the game to take Fed out, and he has beaten him at slams twice before. OTOH, he hasn’t beaten him in nearly five years, and the bigger racquet really helps Fed against power players like Tomas.
Still, if Berdych continues at the level he has been playing last few matches (out of his skin for long stretches from what I’ve seen), I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him beat Roger.
Yes Ricky , most of us knew then rafa will be eliminated to muller bcs gilles was so good when he was coming to wimbledon. But now conditions are highly different and marin isnt at his peak form. That will be enough for Rafa to dominate. Rafa in 4 , Dimitrov in 3.
I don’t know that I agree with Ricky’s reasoning for not getting fooled regarding the Rafa/Muller fourth round match at Wimbledon. Rafa came in without playing any warm up tournaments. Muller was in a hot streak going into Wimbledon. That match was a very close one. Rafa played extremely well and Muller had to play the match of his life to win. The key issue in that match was Rafa’s inability to break Muller’s serve. I remember he had a high number of break chances in that match but could not break Muller. That was the difference in that match.
I don’t know that the situation is that similar now with Rafa and Cilic. This is not grass, which is Cilic’s best surface. I think he was playing much better heading into Wimbledon. He certainly has the game on hard courts with his big serve and powerful ground strokes. If he has showed a lack of mental strength in matches.
Cilic certainly is a threat and could win if he serves lights out. Rafa also has to serve better in the match if he is to win. I think the H2H cannot be ignored. I think that the match with Diego helped Rafa to be match ready.
I am still going with Rafa. It should be a good match.
NNY, I agree with all you said. If I were just a neutral tennis fan I would probably just assume that Rafa will win. But the AO have become a bit of an unlucky slam for Rafa. Last year against Fed we also thought that their h2h at slams totally suggests a Rafa win. And against Wawa Rafa had an even more lopsided record. He had lost one measly set in all his previous matches against Stan. Therefore I’m a bit nervous. Cilic can be dangerous and while Rafa played well he might still not be at 100%. I haven’t seen any of Marin’s matches, though. Obviously he won, but I don’t know how well he actually played.
littlefoot,
Nothing is for certain. Rafa came into the AO without playing any warm up matches. So is he ready to go all the way? I can’t say for sure. I just knew looking at his draw in the early rounds that he could get to at least the quarterfinals.
Now the rubber hits the road. I am expecting Rafa to come out and play better. Can Cilic keep it together and get the win? We will have to see.
I don’t think Rafa’s performance against a tough Diego means that he can’t get it done. Rafa was always going to be pushed at some point.
Is Rafa ready and able to go all the way? That is the question.
NNY, my gut tells me that while Rafa might win against Cilic, he’s not ready to win the trophy. If Cilic doesn’t get him, Dimi or Fed probably will. On paper he should win against all of them. But we shouldn’t forget that Rafa pulled out of all warm-up tournaments. He did so for a reason. Considering that Rafa who always needed a lot of matches under his belt, didn’t play any competitive matches before the AO, he did actually rather well so far. But from now on there are no more margins of error.
I was definitely concerned about how he played against Diego. I want to believe it was a one off and that heat and humidity and Schwartzman’s level had a lot to do with it. The upcoming match will tell us much more about Rafa’s shape than his four previous matches. But at last year’s AO Rafa was probably in better shape than this year since he had a long and fruitful pre-season practicing period. It would be very surprising if Rafa managed to reach the same level without this benefit.
Why, exactly, should Rafa win against Fed “on paper”? Fed is the clear favourite against Rafa right now on this surface. He has the better game and loads of confidence from last year.
Off clay, the overall H2H is ancient history.
littlefoot, if Rafa raises his level to beat Cilic and Dimitrov in succession, that high level will take down Federer.
Always has and always will.
“Always has”: Obviously false, as 5 straight losses shows.
“Always will”: Also probably false, though time will tell.
The true mark of a Rafa-fanatic: if Rafa lost, he couldn’t have been at his best.
Littlefoot: I’m genuinely interested in your reasons why Rafa should beat Fed on paper on this surface.
Hey Joe, when I said on paper I meant just that: on paper. The cold numbers seem to favor Rafa: He’s No 1, he’s five years younger and he has the better h2h – not only overall but also at the slams, and specifically at the AO. Last year was the first time since Wimby 2007 that Roger beat Rafa at a slam. And that’s of course the rub. Recent history between the two is more significant than all the other cold stats. Also, right now I think that Rafa is in worse shape than last year.
But if he really manages to take out Cilic and Dimi, then he’s against all odds in great shape after all and has a fighting chance against Fed. That’s all. Numbers and stats are just that. Let the guys play…
Ok, Littlefoot, fair enough. Certainly an uninjured Rafa will have more than a fighting chance against Federer, on any surface. He may well beat him if they meet in the final here.
Nevertheless, at this point and on this surface, and given recent history, if we see a Fedal final, Fed has to be considered the favourite. That’s how I understand “on paper”.
Joe Smith’s understanding of on paper far surpasses his understanding of what a straw man argument is (despite the fact that he excels in them).
Nonetheless, no, not false Joe Smith. Rafa wasn’t near as good last year as he was from 2010-2013.
Nole of 2011-2016 may very well have beaten 2017 Rafa at both the French Open and USO last year. He’d beat any version of Federer on a hard court slam too (5-0 vs Fed over 2010-16) – including this year (unless of course, Fed doubled the size of his current racquet which is a given of course – just a matter of time – probably before he turns 40).
That’s all you get Joe Smith. One response per straw man argument from you per year.
#YoureWelcome
It’s definitely possible for Cilic to win against Nadal under certain circumstances. But in general, it’s so hard to imagine that.
Eugene (Oregon!lol),
You said…:Cilic to win against Nadal under certain circumstances….”
Under what circumastances?
Want to know all the angles in this match to avoid an upset (Of Nadal by Cilic)!
Cilic is playing well. He has changed a lot in his camp and training which he revealed in his interviews the last couple of days. If Cilic wins in 4 or 5 with his big serve & volley working, I won’t be surprised. That is the reason probably why Ricky is picking Cilic to upset Nadal in 4!
With hard Surface not being Nadal’s FAV surface and Nadal kinda struggling to win against a midget (shortman who is a better, trickier opponent than PCB) (…who runs around collecting all the nuts before they fall to the ground from the tree!lol)…Cilic has probably the best chance to upset Nadal now on hard surface in a place where Kangaroos live and far away from Mallorca (or Europe where there are clay courts everywhere and where the King of Clay Nadal thrives!lol).
If Cilic serves hard, doesn’t lose his serves ever, is mentally strong in tough situations and does not forget that he is a giant with great physical advantages compared to Nadal…then Cilic can upset Nadal today!
Going with a Nadal ML win finally. As Nadal is the better returner and will out-duel Cilic in the rallies with his greater tennis IQ!Here is the BIG DIFFERENCE between Nadal and Cilic…giving Nadal the win today! Besides Nadal is better mover, better at Net play and in the cat and mouse game than Cilic!
Expecting a 4 or 5 setter match as hard is not Nadal’s fav surface..where he cannot slide and do all those magic shots! Like the over to hit here!
Eugene (Oregon!lol), Under what circumastances (Cilic will win against Nadal)?
I hope to visit Oregon, Eugene one day 🙂
If Rafa plays close to his best, he can hardly be stopped even on HC.
So, in order that to happen, Rafa has to play at max 80%, Cilic must be emotionally tough and must play at 9/10 of his level. All those are possible of course. However, Rafa moves better and is more flexible. Cilic has size to cover the court, power and aggressiveness.
That’s going to be an amazing match. Can’t wait. Everything is possible.
In most articles when fed fans are being questioned about feds draw they are replying that it is not feds fault that djoko and thiem lost. Going by that argument it was also not nadals fault that dimi and fed were beaten before he could meet them in uso 2017. Why such double standards I dont understand.Even Berdych lost early in uso 17. fed fans are really blind.
Well their opponents got beaten for a reason or two. I can show you at least 5 Fed fans who didn’t use Fed’s USOPEN exit as an excuse for Rafa’s success. You choose to see only the bright/side of the moon, without acknowledging the existence of both.
bright/dark side *
rafa rules AT 4:49 PM,
Fedfans have had double standards for a long time: one for their darling and the other for Rafa whome they have hated for more than a decade.
Federer, Rafa, and Djokovic all have fans who are hypocritical assholes. Every sport has these kinds of “fans”. Those same players and teams, who have shitty fans, also have perfectly reasonable fans. Social media makes it seem like these trolling fawns make up a player’s entire fan base, when in reality most fans of the Big 3 are reasonable fans. It sucks that a minority of insecure people, who care more about the other two guys losing than their own guy winning, are the ones who are the most visible all the time.
It’s just the reality of it, though. In every sport, there has always been shitty fans. Always. You just need to learn to ignore them. Since they don’t have to actually face anyone when they spew their theories and insecurities, they will never ever be willing to even be open to any other viewpoints. So there’s no point in even discussing those assholes, let alone responding to them. Best we just accept they will always be a part of the entertainment world, and not give them the time of day.
Rafa will crush Cilic in 3. He will up his level here.
Dimitrov will be a significantly bigger challenge
“The world No. 1 is playing well and has dropped only one set through four matches in Melbourne” simply doesn’t jive with “even Diego Schwartzman bullied Nadal around for a brief time on Sunday.”
It wasn’t so brief.
I would have picked Cilic until I suffered through that nightmare of a match vs Schwartzman. That was perhaps the worse hard court match I’ve seen him play in over a year.
This one is a toss up. Cilic may not be at his best but neither is Rafa apparently.
Regardless, neither is getting past Dimitrov IMO (as I said before AO started).
Dimi was a beast vs Kyrgios and will either beat Cilic cilly or leverage his loss to Rafa at the same point last year to catapult him into his first slam final (where Fed will win in 3-4 sets).
Hawkeye I disagree, Rafa should get through Dimitrov if they both make it in another 4/5 set epic!
olly, I meant to say “I would have picked Rafa until I…”
#FreudianSlipsAreEverywhere
Rafa won’t beat Cilic or Dimi if he plays like he did vs Diego.
Don’t think he’ll play like that.
Dimi now having a hard time vs Edmund; he may need to play an exhausting match in the sun. Don’t underestimate Edmund, he has a good serve and a big FH. The problem with Dimi imo is that he tends to drag on instead of pulling the trigger earlier . IOWs, Dimi hasn’t learned the gist of when to turn defense into offense at the right time.
Lucky, while Dimi has definitely matured, I still hesitate to declare him one of the biggest threats for the top dogs. His WTF win was certainly inspiring for him, but look again whom he actually beat – and whom he didn’t have to beat for the title. In all their matches he scored just one single win over Rafa and one measly win over Fed on clay in Madrid. He was very lucky that Goffin took Fed out and that an ailing Rafa dropped out. As to Edmund being tired. Dimi might be a bit tired himself after his epic win over Kyrgios. Is the heat bearable today? I haven’t checked. Dimi used to be a disaster in hot conditions since he tended to cramp even in best-of-three matches. Guess he has toughened up a bit, though.
Just checked. The weather is nice and pleasant.
Not the temperature, it’s the humidity that matters.
The weather is pretty mild today, 24 degrees (75F) and normal humidity. Dimitrov is just struggling because, well, he’s struggling and Edmund is playing well.
I feel like Dimi has brought his A game to the Kyrgios match, particularly in the big moments, but in the others has been too passive.