The second day of Australian Open quarterfinal action will take place on Wednesday, when Roger Federer is back on the court against Tomas Berdych. A far more surprising showdown–one of the most unexpected in slam QF history–features Hyeon Chung and Tennys Sandgren.
Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Roger Federer
Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych will be squaring off for the 26th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Wednesday night. Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 19-6, but there has to be at least some optimism for Berdych. After all, six wins in 25 attempts is a smashing success compared to the standards most players set for themselves against Federer. Moreover, the 32-year-old Czech is playing far better tennis right now–albeit with a very small sample size–than he was throughout a prolonged slump in 2016 and 2017 that kept him out of consecutive Nitto ATP Finals. During those two seasons he went 0-4 against Federer and 1-11 total sets–including 0-2 (0-6 in sets) at the Australian Open. Berdych earned himself another shot at the Swiss thanks to mostly routine victories earlier in the tournament over Alex de Minaur, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Fabio Fognini.
Federer was the favorite to defend his 2017 title before the fortnight even started and his status as such has only skyrocketed due to recent losses taken by Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, among other top 15 players. The world No. 2 has not come close to suffering a similar fate, as he punched his ticket to the last eight by cruising past Aljaz Bedene, Jan-Lennard Struff, Richard Gasquet, and Marton Fucsovics all in straight sets. Federer is obviously in fine form and he has to be supremely confident against Berdych with an 8-0 record at the underdog’s expense dating back to 2014.
Pick: Federer in 3
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Tennys Sandgren vs. Hyeon Chung
It will be one of the most surprising Grand Slam quarterfinal matchups in ATP history when Chung and Sandgren collide on Wednesday afternoon. Byron Black vs. Vladimir Voltchkov at Wimbledon in 2000 is on a similar scale, but not much else can rival this one. Most of that, of course, has to do with Sandgren. The 26-year-old American had been a perennial Futures and Challenger level player until now, with only two main-tour match wins in his entire career. Ranked 97th in the world, Sandgren has emerged from nowhere to make a miracle run in Melbourne at the expense of Jeremy Chardy, Stan Wawrinka, Maximilian Marterer, and Dominic Thiem.
Chung’s quarterfinal appearance is a surprise more because he had no past history of success at Grand Slams and a difficult draw. For him, natural talent has never been a question mark. The 21-year-old South Korean captured the inaugural NextGen ATP Finals title last fall in Milan and he beat two fellow NextGen stars earlier in this tournament (Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev). Chung also advanced by taking out Mischa Zverev (via retirement) and six-time Aussie Open champion Novak Djokovic. Although Djokovic is a shadow of his former self at the moment, nothing can be taken away from what was an awesome performance by Chung throughout a 7-6(4), 7-5, 7-6(3) triumph on Monday night. The world No. 58 is in outstanding form, has already played in Rod Laver Arena twice (Sandgren never has), and he just beat Sandgren three weeks ago in Auckland.
Pick: Chung in 4
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who ya got??
Roger chung.
I’m going to say Federer in 4 very right ones, maybe even 5. I think that Berdych has to be viewing this as, from a QF and on standpoint, the single best opportunity he has ever had, and probably will ever have, to finally get a major singles titles. He could come out with a desperation that we haven’t seen in a “Fedych” match at a Major in a long time….
However, as I pointed out previously, Federer’s post-2013 ultra-aggressive style of play has for whatever reason been just impossible for Berdych to penetrate… Sure, he can really damn close in Miami last year, but if that were a best-of-five match, I don’t know about you all, but I would absolutely have expected Fed to still come through that match.
But Miami 2017 match aside…. Berdych has almost been the perfect match-up for Federer. For whatever reason, since 2014 Berdych has just brought the best of out Federer, especially in Majors, ESPECIALLY at AO! I just feel like Berdych is just one of those guys, similar to Gasquet in a way, who seems to make Federer so comfortable when he plays him.
At AO last year, Fed had looked relatively sub-par leading up to the Berdych match, in the Hopman Cup and first two rounds of AO. But once he stepped out onto the court with Berdych, it was almost like Berdych was exactly what the Fed doctor ordered. That match was definitely one of the most truly flawless matches he had ever played, but more importantly, it seemed to remind him that he is capable of producing a level that can beat the world. Now, I’m not going to pretend like he looked anywhere near as flawless as that match throughout the rest of the tournament last year (until maybe the 5th set of the final). But that Berdych match did seem, to me, to unlock some sort of belief in Federer that he was able to bring out when his matches got tight against Nishikori, Stan, and Rafa.
I guess the main point I am trying to make is that I believe that Berdych is the perfect person for Federer to play when he has played well through to the QF, not dropping a set and serving relatively well, but hasn’t yet shown us a REALLY high level that could be required in the deep stages of a major. And I think that facing Berdych now could be that opportunity for Fed to really kick it up a notch, and remind everyone of why he’s #2 in the world and the defending champion. And I believe that Fed knows that he has that opportunity for the taking.
But Fed also knows that Berdych is not to be taken lightly. He knows that Berdych IS capable of just dominating and taking the racquet out of his hand, and beating him handedly at a major… because he’s done it more than once.
So I’ll end by saying that Berdych absolutely, positively CAN beat Federer tomorrow. And he might! And anyone who thinks that isn’t true, is just ignoring history. However, Federer is way, way, way, WAY better at beating Berdych than Berdych is at beating Federer. Therefore the deck is stacked in Federer’s favor. That is also undeniable.
To me, percentage-wise, it feels closer to a 60-40 split in Fed’s favor this time as opposed to the typical 80-20 in their matchup. I should also add that I think that a lot of people last year thought Berdych would beat Fed in round 3 just because of how little Fed had competed til that point. More people last year picked Berdych than they are this year, I believe. And we all know what happened last year!
So it could be Federer rout just like last year. Or it could be a career-defining statement win for Berdych in 4 sets. But I believe it’s most like to be a Federer victory in 4, maybe, possibly 5, very tight sets.
Agree with pretty much all of this.
It’s hard to actually say what Fed’s level is right now, but he’s not been at the level he was when he crushed Berdych at last year’s AO. Is that because he’s just not found that kind of form, or because he hasn’t had to? I don’t know, I’m more inclined to think the former, but it could be a bit of both.
Whoever wins, I feel like Chung should offer a stern test from here, as should Cilic, if he’s on the other side (surely he will be, but who knows). Cilic is actually in a great position right now, he’s on the 2 day break half of the draw and ‘only’ has to get through Edmund. Hit eighty-something winners against Rafa, should be able to do the same in a final.
Kevin, congrats on a great analysis of this QF matchup.
You are right, 2 new faces, Cilic and Chung have a great chance of reaching this years AO finale! I give Cilic more chances to reach the final. Cilic has to play at a high lvl without any mental breakdowns else Kyle Edward will pounce on this Golden opportunity ( Kyle feels that he is representing not only Andy Murray but the Whole UK at AO!. Playing for her majesty the great Queen Elizabeth will give Edwards lots of confidence to win the SF.) with his powerful forehand working and playing with tremendous confidence having beaten World No.3 Dimi!
Kevin is right on somethings but I didn’t read all your comment 😂.
Agree with much of what Kevin said. I’ve actually not seen much of Fed during this tournament, so I don’t feel like I have a good feel for his current level. What I’ve seen of Berdych has really impressed me, and Kev is right that he is capable of dominating when he’s in the zone, kind of like Cilic but generally more consistent, imo. Still, Fed in 4.
Berdych in 5
Chung in 5
Fed in 4….Chung in straight.
Scoot, congrats on predicting “Chung in straight”!
Hope your next prediction of “Fed in 4” also comes true.
Fed in four Sandgren in five
Roger vs Chung in semi would be exciting to watch. who knows Chung continues to slay giant until the final, that would be most phenomenal start of a year.
Wow. Chung is seriously going to be a FIGHT for Federer or Berdych in the semis… People should not sleep on this guy right now. He can make these 30+ year old guys look their age, quite easily if he wants to. Hasn’t he actually beaten Berdych before? Maybe even in a major?
Chung plays like a young Djoko (from 2011 onwards); he’s just so quick and gets every ball back. He can hit some unbelievable passing shots on the run too. I agree, he makes the 30 something players look slow; the 20 something too!
Congrats to Chung! He’s the youngest SFinalist since Cilic at AO2010.
He’s playing Djoko style tennis, and who says the defence/offence style couldn’t survive on quick HCs? Rafa had proven he could last year reaching the final; Chung proves that he can too reaching the SF now.
Berdych taking it to Fed at the outset, up a break at 3-0. Playing very smart tennis, keeping the ball deep. This is the Berdych I’ve been watching this AO. Fed making a lot of errors, but Tomas is pressuring him.
What is Fed doing? He has no more challenges remaining so no need to argue with the umpire.
Berdy come on, man up. Please dont hit all the wrong shots!
Luckystar will you take it easy, chill.
Tomas Berdych is playing well in the 1st set.
Sigh, Berdy is forever like this, tensed up once hes about to win the set. If he cant overcome this problem, he’ll never win a slam!
Oh come on give some credit to Roger who was aggressive in that game. I think Berdych is playing great tennis as he was doing in Wimbledon.
I want Roger to win this title but if T. Berdych wins this match, I will be happy for him.
He hasn’t won a slam b4 and he is getting old.
If Tomas wants to win this match, he has to make most of his opportunities, R. Federer never gives up, he will have to raise his game high.
My goodness Roger Federer is the best, this guy is awesome👍.
T. Berdych missed a big opportunity to take the 1st set.
Nah, Berdych was serving poorly in that game and hitting all the wrong shots, hitting right back at Fed! Its more tobdo with Berdych being tense than Fed playing well!
After Sunday, I hope you dont turn up and say whole men’s field was tensed up and 36 year old guy won AO without dropping a set. Anyone would love to be in Fed’s shoes if he can get rest of 127 guys tensed up.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂, this guy is funny.
So, it takes 50 minutes for a 36 year old guy to just break down a free swinging guy. I thought Berdych started great but Fed has just too many weapons to counter him. 22 winners to 8 winners for Fed in comparsion with Berdych.
I thought Roger had lost it at 5-6, but he has played this tiebreak brilliantly. If he keeps this level he should win in straights.
As usual, Berdych will lose this despite playing well all tournament. Fed is also Berdych’s nemesis, just like Djoko/Rafa are to Berdych.
This Bedrcyh would have beaten both Rafa and Djoker that turned up at this AO.
It’s possible, I am sure he would have defeated Novak.
I doubt so! Rafa and Djoko would make him run like crazy, both know Berdy’s game inside out!
Rafa might not defeat him, Berdych was/is playing better than M. Cilic that’s my take.
Berdy is Berdy, when facing the big three, he cowed to them, nothing new.
I thought 1st set is gone. This guy never ceases to impress. It’s easy to take all the credit from Berdych (due to his lack of mental toughness) and give it to Fed, but it can’t be just that. It has to do with Roger as well.
One thing Federer is really doing well in this match since mid-1st set is varying the pace of his shots. Not just on the slices, but on his FH drives. He wasn’t hitting his shots early on, and instead of just continuing with the same strategy, he has gone to a plan B.
He’s also hitting some ridiculously good drop shots.
He is versatile.
He’s capitalizing on Berdy’s lack of movement and lack of mental strength. He knows Berdy’s weaknesses very well.