A three-team panel previews and picks Sunday’s Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. It is the third final at this event between Djokovic and Murray.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) Andy Murray
Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): The question here, of course, is which Djokovic is going to show up. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from Murray, who has been the most impressive player the entire way this fortnight. The Scot was only tested to the max by Grigor Dimitrov and he even handed a bagel to a previously red-hot Tomas Berdych. Djokovic had been solid through five matches before a performance against Stan Wawrinka that should have sent him packing from Melbourne (49 errors to just 27 winners, including zero winners in the entire fourth set). However, you have to think the world No. 1 will be a different man for the final. He is 4-0 lifetime in Australian Open title matches, whereas Murray is 0-3. Djokovic is also 7-0 in his last seven hard-court matches against Murray and 12-1 in the last 13 hard-court sets between the two rivals. Djokovic 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-7(5), 6-3.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Welcome back to the Big 4, Murray! The Scot’s impressive march to the 2015 Australian Open final will elevate you back to where you belong in the ATP rankings. Murray will certainly benefit from the fact that he will have an extra day of rest heading into the final and that the top-seeded Djokovic was extended to five sets by Wawrinka in Friday’s semifinal. However, despite three previous final appearances, Murray has yet to win the Aussie Open and he will be facing a four-time champion in Djokovic. The Serb, who tends to ricochet quickly back into form following a poorly-played match, now finds himself back in familiar territory in Melbourne: in the final, where he will reign supreme once again. Djokovic 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(3).
Jared Pine (The Second Serb): Following his win over Wawrinka, Djokovic has now won six of his seven slam semifinals that have gone five sets. However, the Serb has only gone on to win the final two of those times–and both were on hard courts over Rafael Nadal, whom Djokovic was dominating in the head-to-head at the time. Djokovic has met Murray in major finals four times and each has won two, accounting for the Scot’s only two such titles. The two that Djokovic won were both at the Australian Open. Murray hasn’t been in a Grand Slam final since winning Wimbledon in 2013; it has been a long ride back to the biggest stage of the sport. Djokovic is going to be the player who is much more ready for this because he has continued to be in the final rounds of slams, whereas Murray had been struggling just to reach quarterfinals. Djokovic 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
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I fear a bagel here
Murray really disappointed me, I expected him to at least take it to a fifth…….regardless of how good Novak was playing!
Compare this to how energized Murray is against Nadal. He turns up in a GS final and plays crap tennis then bursts his guts against Nadal in an exhibition. Pathetic.
Haha!! Thats hilarious. Leaving his guts on the floor in an exhibition
lol!
Murray deserves a drubbing if he wants to hand Djoker the match and take Nadal out at any cost.
Its so amazing…..now matter how bad Rafa is playing ir no matter how good everybody else is, Rafa is always the man to beat!!! Weird!!!
With this title we can declare Djoko the god of the Australian Open. Joining Rafa at French and Roger at Wimby
five australian opens… somebody gotta stop him from winning next year or he will start inching closer to the danger zone …lol..long long way to go though.. He can match roger’s 7 titles at wimbledon but rafa’s 9 (and counting) is the mount everest of tennis.
And the mind boggling thing is that in each of his campaigns he has beat a fellow big 4 member. That is so impressive!! Rafa and murray in 2012, Roger and Murray in 2011! If not for a Soderling like Wawrinka performance last year, he might have clinched it last year too
oh you rafa fans out there , I know you don’t like wawrinka for winning over an injured rafa but you should be thankful to him as well for taking novak out last year 😛 otherwise, novak would have been holding his 6th title here haha
lol, @vmk, you wrote the same thing… yeah, djokovic is the king of the australian open.
I know a well playing rafa can really put djokovic to the ultimate test here but rafa has only faced him once. Aus open has been very unlucky for rafa either in terms of its timing in the year or in terms of coinciding with rafa catching an illness or injury.
So Novak’s 8th slam… he is 6 behind rafa …I just hope rafa wins his 10th french so that he has 15… I will not take any tension (hopefully :P) if rafa can win RG and one of wimby and USO this year..
Djoker has 5 at the AO and 3 at the other 3 combined. Is he an AO specialist?
Yes. But the narrative will never allow anyone but Nadal to be called a specialist. Sad but true.
haha..perhaps he is an AO specialist but depends in what context the word specialist is used. If its used with the often negative connotation tennis fans attach with it, then yes he is a specialist as per the stats mentioned by you. On the other hand, one can say he has two wimbledon titles and not even many grass court specialists were able to win two wimbledons ! But yeah there is a big skew towards AO titles,,
Tomas bagelled Rafa, Andy bagelled Tomas and now Djoko to bagel Andy? Djoko has already bagelled Stan :O
there will be serious abuses hurled at Djokovic by Andy Murray when the latter leaves the court.
Also, there will be serious abuses hurled at Andy Murray by none other than Andy Murray himself.
If Djoker’s faking is what put Murray off, then I would say that was smart play by Djoko. Knowing the sort of headcase that he can be, he played mind games and came out on top
There are mind games and there are mind games!!! Feigning injury questions your sportsmanship!!!
To be fair, both Djokovic and Muzza feign injury when they are on-court. Muzza clutched his body parts like they are falling apart. Djokovic winces and flays like he has been shot. They both know each other’s games. Novak played the fakes better today…………
Lol!!!
We all knew this was Nole’ s to take…Andy dissapointed again…but sure Nole deserves to be congratulated for his achievement..
well said
thanks…posting comment from a cell phone and I get to be anonymous…good to know this… 🙂
true.. for me, this has now become the case of until-proven-otherwise. Unless there is a very strong factor going against him, he is the bet for AO! he erased little doubts that were there.
Congrats to Daddy Nole! A most deserving winner!
most discussed non-Nadal match in Grandstand history. Well done, folks.
nice! haha
Takeaways from the final :
1. Djokovic has a much superior second serve . We knew this before too but it was really evident today. He even won some free points on second serves in important moments and his second serve held up extremely well today against one of game’s best returners. he won a very impressive 62% second serve points today . For perspective, he only won 44% in their 2012 Semi final and 52% in their 2013 final ! So this was the key stat of the match in my view. Perhaps Djokovic has improved the quality of his second serve. Murray on the other hand, won only 34% of his second serves but this is line with the percentages he had in the 2012 SF and 2012 Final when he won 31% and 34% respectively! So very clear what the game changer was : Novak’s effective 2nd serve!
2.Murray’s forehand needs some serious work. His forehand is good at spreading the court but that that alone is not enough against the best mover on hard courts! The problem is that when Murray stands on the baseline, he can do serious damage with his backhand by taking it on the rise but he cannot take balls on the rise aggressively enough on the forehand side! He needs short balls to hit big shots. Perhaps his inability to generate heavy spin restricts him from punishing balls that are fading towards him. However, when Lendl was in charge, he was doing a better job of being aggressive. To be fair to Murray, he has just started playing his best tennis and to get strong hold over your weaknesses requires time and we should give some time to him. It’s just like rafa needs time in order for his forehand DTL, backhand CC to start clicking and it all comes with confidence and victories. ANDY MUST RAISE THE AGGRESSIVENESS OF HIS FOREHAND.
3. In full flow, Murray’s backhand can have the edge over Djokovic’s backhand because of its greater variation AND more firepower. However, his backhand is nowhere as good in terms of defending strongly. He can RETRIEVE almost as well but because he does not hit open-stance backhand, he resorts to hitting backhand slices whenever he is stretched. Novak is a brick wall on his backhand side. He has an open stance and literally everything gets rebounded at great length.
4.Murray has relatively poor control over his temperament and emotions. He got affected by Djokovic’s antics too much.
5. Amelia Mauresmo- Andy Murray duo has done a good job so far !
6. Murray is back in the big 4.
7. Djokovic is the king of AO!
8.Djokovic-becker duo has proved many critics wrong! He really is back on track. But the equation is still missing a big constraint : he has not faced an in-form, healthy nadal but that will happen soon.
That 2nd serve improvement was what I had mentioned in one of my posts on the other thread. But nobody seemed to agree with it!
Also well said about the Nole-Becker duo. Everyone jumped up at them, but the result is there to see : regained No.1, won 4 Masters, 2 out of 5 slams as well as the WTF title! I would say, good job Boris!
vamosrafa,
I remember you saying that Murray would have to serve well, particularly his second serve. Well the stats show that it didn’t happen. Against someone like Novak, who has such a great ROS, you simply must serve your best. Also, Novak winning such a high percentage of second serves is impressive. I always checked that stat in the seven straight losses that Rafa had to him in 2011, finally ending in that marathon 2012 AO final. In every single one of those losses, Rafa’s second serve points won percentage was less than Novak’s. However, once Rafa started beating him again, his second serve points won percentage was better than Novak’s. That’s a key stat.
I wonder about Murray’s forehand. Lendl really worked on that shot with Murray to improve it and make it a more deadly and effective weapon. Is Lendl’s influence wearing off? I also like your analysis of Murray’s backhand and where Novak is superior.
Nice breakdown of the match!
I have to say that it now looks as though Novak made a good move in hiring Boris Becker. He ran over to him and grabbed his hands to share his victory. Whatever others may have thought, it seems to have worked out for him.
I do think that Andy is doing well with Mauresmo. I wondered how he would adjust to a new coach. But this result has to bode well for him. Getting to a slam final and also getting back in the top four, is a great way to start the new tennis year.
thanks for your comments NNY.. you are spot on with your analysis on second serve points won in rafa-novak matches. Rafa was able to turn that around. Rafa does not have the best of second serves out there but it is a much better second serve than murray’s.
I would like to give Murray some time. It is not easy to have all your strengths working at 100% and it is particularly difficult to manage your weaknesses. Logically, Andy will be back to his best around wimbledon.
A bagel? Really Muzza? I go out for a coffee and come back to this???
Now we have to live on the “Novak for the Calendar Slam” diet until Rafa puts him in his place at RG………
No thanks to you Muzza…..
I remember someone here saying Muzza has a better serve than Rafa??
Aw Gawd………………
Murrays second serve is horrendous
Muzz’s 2nd serves won’t find a place even in the WTA!
But, how good are Djoko’s returns. He always looked like painting the lines with those returns!
Muzza gets distracted by Berdy’s antics in the semi……….
Muzza gets distracted by Nole’s antics in the final…………
I think the locker room has cottoned on to Muzza’s mental frailty and try to exploit it at the earliest opportunity, Rafa excepted of course. Rafa just wears Muzza down with his game, not antics………..
Best chance for calendar slam in decades.
As I predicted these two base liners head to head makes for dull one dimensional tennis and Novak in four as predicted.
Congratulations to me, for sure, no?
decades? Djokovic wasn’t that impressive this tournament, to be honest. Would have zero chance vs. Nadal on clay in this form.
No 1 in the world. Finds a way to win beating seven guys in a row. Makes finals at other three slams regularly. Most consistent player in the world at the moment. Other guys not at their best
Name another. Surely not fed when rafa was always there as a sure thing at the French. No longer the same sure thing.
Fed had a much better chance at the other 3
being a lock at 3 and needing only a fluke at one is fare more likely (see 2009 at RG) than having a decent chance at 3 and an outside chance at 1
Correction! Zero chance at the French.
Right.2009 where he lost in Australia and New York. Gotcha.
You missed the point. HOW MANY TIMES will you continue to miss points? SO MANY TIMES!
Rafa BY FAR had the best chance to hold all four slams simultaneously, He was two service games away in 2009.
As in Novak is a sure thing at FO?? *guffaws*
Even Sean Randall has seen the error of his ways in this regard.
Where do I say sure thing?
#NadlineDisease
Congratulations to you indeed @hawkeye63. Why would 2015 be the best chance for calendar Slam in decades may I ask? I am being serious. I thought every year Novak won in Australia he was a shoo in for a calendar Slam.
No! Rafael always had a better chance in prior years to beat him at the French.
So you doubt Rafaels’ chances at RG this year? Okay then……..
I would have thought Novak has had excellent chances before to beat Rafael at RG but lost anyway.
But as the great man says, we shall see, no?
Rafa is the favorite to win the French. No where did I say otherwise.
#NadlineDisease
RT @linzsports: “Pot, meet kettle. RT @BenRothenberg: “Don’t worry about him. He does it all the time.” -Andy Murray muttering on Novak Djokovic. #ausopen”
And Muzza was rumoured to be Novak’s best man at one point???
All this of Muzz’s rant about Nole’s condition in the 3rd set affecting him is really poor stuff from him. I mean c’mon, Nole didn’t even took a MTO. Everyone could see he was breathing very heavily in that 3rd set. That 3rd game onwards Nole just went for broke too early in the rallies and he kept on going hard and deep with his shots and they landed in. It was quite clear in the 3rd and 4th set that Nole wanted to end the points quickly. It was only after that he received his energy drink from his trainer that he again started chasing the balls. Remember, Nole suffered a viral illness prior to this tournament. He may not have recovered from it’s effects completely. The extreme physical nature of their matchup didn’t helped Nole’ either.
Muzz was lucky enough to win that 2nd set, when Nole had all the momentum with him and Muzz looked completely out of ideas until those intruders jumped on the court.That helped him to regroup his game.
If even after playing so many years on tour, he gets affected by what’s happening on the other side of the court, then it’s really poor mentality from him. Has any other player even paid a heed to all those of his body clutching acts that he does on court when they play him!
Dimonator strikes again:
https://twitter.com/dimonator/status/561859572848001024
…………….The Serb hurt his thumb when he fell in the first set then appeared to twist his ankle in the second set and again in the third. He seemed to struggle briefly but them bounced back strongly.
Murray was bombarded with questions in his post-match media conference on whether he felt Djokovic was putting it on to distract him.
He denied this but admitted it affected his concentration in the third set.
“The third set was frustrating because I got a bit distracted when he fell on the ground after a couple of shots,” he said.
“It appeared that he was cramping, and then I let that distract me a little bit.”
Pressed on whether he thought it was a deliberate tactic to put him off his game, he replied: “I don’t know. I don’t know. I have no idea.
“I mean, it’s obviously what he thinks. I would hope that that wouldn’t be the case.
“But if it was cramp, how he recovered from it, that’s a tough thing to recover from and play as well as he did at the end.
“So, yeah, I’m frustrated at myself for letting that bother me at the beginning of the third set, because I was playing well, I had good momentum, and then just dropped off for 10 minutes and it got away from me.”
^^^http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-2935231/Murray-admits-got-distracted-Djokovic-takes-positives.html
Murray’s presser (video):
http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/video/index.html?tabName=interviews_videos