A three-team panel previews and picks Sunday’s Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. It is the third final at this event between Djokovic and Murray.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) Andy Murray
Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): The question here, of course, is which Djokovic is going to show up. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from Murray, who has been the most impressive player the entire way this fortnight. The Scot was only tested to the max by Grigor Dimitrov and he even handed a bagel to a previously red-hot Tomas Berdych. Djokovic had been solid through five matches before a performance against Stan Wawrinka that should have sent him packing from Melbourne (49 errors to just 27 winners, including zero winners in the entire fourth set). However, you have to think the world No. 1 will be a different man for the final. He is 4-0 lifetime in Australian Open title matches, whereas Murray is 0-3. Djokovic is also 7-0 in his last seven hard-court matches against Murray and 12-1 in the last 13 hard-court sets between the two rivals. Djokovic 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-7(5), 6-3.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Welcome back to the Big 4, Murray! The Scot’s impressive march to the 2015 Australian Open final will elevate you back to where you belong in the ATP rankings. Murray will certainly benefit from the fact that he will have an extra day of rest heading into the final and that the top-seeded Djokovic was extended to five sets by Wawrinka in Friday’s semifinal. However, despite three previous final appearances, Murray has yet to win the Aussie Open and he will be facing a four-time champion in Djokovic. The Serb, who tends to ricochet quickly back into form following a poorly-played match, now finds himself back in familiar territory in Melbourne: in the final, where he will reign supreme once again. Djokovic 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(3).
Jared Pine (The Second Serb): Following his win over Wawrinka, Djokovic has now won six of his seven slam semifinals that have gone five sets. However, the Serb has only gone on to win the final two of those times–and both were on hard courts over Rafael Nadal, whom Djokovic was dominating in the head-to-head at the time. Djokovic has met Murray in major finals four times and each has won two, accounting for the Scot’s only two such titles. The two that Djokovic won were both at the Australian Open. Murray hasn’t been in a Grand Slam final since winning Wimbledon in 2013; it has been a long ride back to the biggest stage of the sport. Djokovic is going to be the player who is much more ready for this because he has continued to be in the final rounds of slams, whereas Murray had been struggling just to reach quarterfinals. Djokovic 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
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“whereas Murray had been struggling just to reach quarterfinals”
?? You’re assessing his chances on last year’s form? It doesn’t seem like you’ve been following his progress this year.
Fair point. I think he is saying, however, that murray will be at disadvantage due to little recent history at this stage of slams.
Mind says djoko in 4
Heart says Murray in 5
i imagine this is the case for many people
#Ditto
#DoYouuuu????
+1
+1 2
It will be brilliant and unexpected if Murray wins this 🙂
Hope he pulls it off
The court is playing quicker this year. The surface used to benefit Djokovic more but since last year, they have quickened the court. That should give murray a slight advantage.
Murray has more momentum heading into the match. Djokovic was lacking in intensity against Wawrinka throughout. Had stan been firing more consistently, he would have taken djokovic down. When was the last time you saw djokovic hit zero winners in a set of a grand slam semi final? I believe never before. Anyway, do not want to read too much into that performance alone.
Murray is doing a slightly better job of defending his second serve now and I absolutely loved the use of his backhand slice against Berdych! he used a lot of backhand up the line slices against novak in their USO match last year so I am assuming he will employ the same variation.
Djokovic is mentally tougher but I don’t think Murray really lacks belief against Novak. He believes he can beat Novak when playing well.
While I totally understand the reasons for picking djokovic, I am picking murray to win.His forehand will be strong and backhand will be versatile.
Murray for his third career slam.
in how many?
Murray in 5
Novak will come out playing aggressive tennis and take command right away. Andy MUST pounce on novak’s 2nd serves and avoid dropping floaters in the middle of the court !!
The backhand slice and the slider serve out-wide will be key for Murray. The court is seemingly playing more conducive to underpin and if Murray can capitalize on that, he will have his chances.
Lung-busting rallies will be in abundance 😉
Whose lungs and muscle systems do you think will cope better?
During the semi final against wawdard I was trying to remember just how Djokovic managed to get into so much better physical shape than in his years prior to 2011 when his lungs were limiting him among other physical complaints. The egg has been part of it, I don’t know whether he has continued using it. The sport psychology cnosultation he had around the end of 2010 / early 2011 that he alluded to back in 2011 seems to have done wonders, and perhaps the gluten-free diet really did make a big difference _in his case_ (it only seems to be necessary for those who have Celiac disease).
Living in the US is bad for this particular tournament. When do you sleep/wake up for the match, Ricky?
I hope Murray will win in 5. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-7, 6-2
Probably sleep from 10 pm to 3 am
And nice pick
Carlos, I was so sad to read of your death in 2004.
That Tristan Und Isolde with Dame Margaret Price – the one that caused you to storm out of the recording studio, a neurotic heap, never to return – was heartbreakingly profound.
Best wishes to you in the afterlife. Long may you continue to post your thoughts on All Things Tennis through the ether.
PS that Munich Rosenkavalier is unforgettable. In particular, I think Brigitte Fassbaender’s single-handed backhand down the line, allied with the judicious use of the lob, is telling. Vielen dank!
muzz in 4. Nothing that has happened in 2014 can be taken into account. This is vintage pre-Wimby 2013 muzz back (with value added, IMO). As it was then, there will probably be less than a hair’s breadth between them tomorrow, but I’m going for muzz to win the key points … and because I just can’t take the stress of 5 sets.
alex,
Here’s a shout out to you! Nice to see you here! Your guy is looking more like his old self. As for the final, it could go either way. One school of thought is that Novak has won four finals here and will rise to the occasion and play his best tennis, unlike his performance in the semis. Then there is another school of thought that says Murray has found his game again. He is a formidable foe who can hang with Novak in these tough best three out of five set matches. He may be coming off a poor year and the sense is that he lacks belief for the final, but I think he has gained confidence in that tough match with Dimitrov and even with a red hot Berdy. He’s as ready now as he can possibly be. I think he is hungry for another slam win after such a disappointing year returning from back surgery. He is healthy, his physical stamina is back and also his great movement all over the court. Last year he simply could not hang with Novak. But this year will be different. I definitely expect a tough battle and a really good final.
It’s almost a toss-up and I can’t argue with the unanimity in the expert picks because Novak would be the favorite based on his record at this slam. But I will go for Murray to win in five sets.
Like others above, rooting for Murray but betting on Joker!
Most of Murray’s losses to Novak came from his disbelief he could beat Novak…I see Andy looking much stronger this year and it seems to me he is more determined than ever…If I were in Andy’s shoes I would just replay the nole vs wawa semi to build confidence…even Dokovic in his pressers admits he was not playing well and that he was not pushed hard in his previous matches, even Serbian press recognizes Novak is not at his best and I hope Murray can build some confidence on it…
If the right Andy shows up, the one who trusts his own game and who SERVES big, I say he will take the crown…
I predict: Andy in five sets…I have Nole losing the first set, winning the second, Andy winning the third and Nole pushing hard and winning the tiebreak in the forth and then Andy wining the fifth… I would love to see Andy lift the trophy…
but since I am a Rafan, if I have to chose between Nole wining AO or wining the RG this year I would certainly wish him to win the AO trophy and then to fade away for the rest of the year… 🙂
I don’t understand your last point. Why do you have to choose? If Djokovic plays so well that he wins Roland Garros this year then he deserves it. I don’t think Nadal will allow him to win though. But again, it depends on Rafa’s health before and during RG.
“…………….. it depends on Rafa’s health before and during RG.”
Careful, @CarlosKleiber, this could becinstrued as making excuses for Rafa! 🙂
Novak Volleyovic
^^ I just can’t take the stress of 5 sets 🙂
As a longterm Muzzman I would’ve thought you would be battle hardened by now Alex!!
There has been a seismic shift in Andy’s attitude that bodes well for this confrontation – notably he is enjoying himself out there at last and unless Nole has been playing bluff and double bluff (always possible) he has looked a lot less cocksure in several of his matches.
Too much to hope there will be a repeat of his dodgy performance against WaWa but I am quietly confident Muzz will get the better of him.
Murray in 5 sets
I think Andy got a lot of confidence in the Berdych match, up to then he wasn’t playing outstanding tennis, let’s be honest. Nole has been playing average tennis throughout and I think Murray is the better player at this moment in time.
Some really nice backhand volleys by Djokovic. He escapes 0-40
Muzza needs to get out of this BH pussy-footing with Djokovic otherwise it’s curtains for him. He needs to be aggressive out there.
Gosh, how I wish Muzza had a FH………..
THis is too damn good by djokovic so far. Murray MUST start pulling the trigger earlier in rallies…
Djokovic threading the DTL shots to good effect…………
Djoker on fire
The difference so far: one guy has a FH, the other not…………….
Can’t believe I just said Djoker has a FH. Encapsulates how awful Muzza’s is………
Djokovic winning it in straight sets….Murray already collapsing.
It would be miracle if Murray manages to even even 1 set….
IF djokovic keeps playing like this….which would also require a miracle
Aw Gawd, there’s Kim………….with her mouth open……….
Even Andy Roddic had better forehand than Murray.
Roddicks forehand was good. Roddick had a terrible BACKHAND.