Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday night, when both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are battling for not only the title but also for some serious history. With a victory, Medvedev would become the first player to back up his first slam title by winning the very next major. He would also become world No. 1 for the first time next month. Nadal, of course, would get to No. 21 with a win. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(6) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Matteo Berrettini? Great matchup for Nadal. Daniil Medvedev? Not a great matchup. It’s easy to see why. Berrettini may serve even bigger and hit his forehand even bigger than Medvedev, but the Italian’s backhand is a major weakness and he doesn’t defend well. What are two absolute must-haves to defeat Nadal? A world-class backhand and elite defensive skills–especially in terms of defending the backhand side. Medvedev has both. In fact, his combination of backhand and defense is better than everyone else’s on tour other than Novak Djokovic.
The second-ranked Russian also has the edge in endurance. That’s not a knock on Nadal; that’s just the nature of things when the Spaniard is 35 and his opponent is 25. Medvedev played for four hours and 42 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals and then came out two days later and wore down Stefanos Tsitsipas physically even though Tsitsipas was coming off a lightning-quick quarter against Jannik Sinner. In their epic 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal was closer to his prime and Medvedev was further away from his prime than they are now. Nadal won that one in five. I expect roles to be reversed in this one. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl: Nadal is in the final of the Australian Open for the sixth time. Despite his best efforts–some of which have been flat-out Herculean–he has just one title (2009). He is chasing history, of course, The Spaniard is tied at 20 majors apiece with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. That his first real shot at No. 21 should come in Melbourne is delightfully ironic; Oz is his least-successful slam, after all. Oh, and there’s the fact that he just tiptoed back to tennis after a half a year nursing foot pain from a congenital issue. He really has played remarkably well this fortnight. Aggressive serving, crowding the baseline on returns, and making an obvious (and often successful) attempt at shortening points to be kinder to his 35-year-old body…. That is why he has the chance.
Unfortunately for Nadal’s place in the history books, Medvedev is standing in his way as the other best player in the draw. The world No. 2 snagged his first major at the 2021 U.S. Open, handing Djokovic a beatdown as the Serb made a bid for No. 21 and the calendar-year Grand Slam. That he’s well-positioned to do the same to Nadal in Melbourne is no accident. Medvedev hasn’t been at his best some of the time over the past two weeks. A wonky match in the fourth round against Maxime Cressy had the Russian out of sorts…but he has a way of showing up in the big moments. On hard courts, Medvedev’s best is probably better than Nadal’s best. He is deceptively fast and his offense is more lethal than Nadal’s. Still, with this much on the line the Spaniard is going to show up.
Medvedev in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): With his semifinal victory over Tsitsipas, Medvedev certainly answered any stamina-related “questions” following his lengthy quarterfinal against Auger-Aliassime. Even a Medvedev meltdown or other mid-match detour at a major no longer appears to have any significant impact or an ability to flip a match in favor of his opponent. However, the man on the other side of the net this time is Nadal–who perhaps benefitted from the Russian’s antics at the 2019 U.S. Open and beat him in that final.
In his AO semifinal on Friday, Nadal simply outclassed Berrettini for two full sets and then withstood a serving barrage before picking his spot to do damage and secure the break in the fourth–leading to the win less than five minutes later. Even if Nadal is able to duplicate the caliber of his game from the initial two sets in the semi into the final, it will not be enough against Medvedev. The world No. 2 seemingly has all the answers, gets nearly everything back in play, and goes big at the most unexpected of times. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5.
The younger man will win the Medal final but he will be pushed
But,as usual the polls on here say Nadal will win – Id say 60-40 Med and anything can happen
Thats why I didnt bother watching the semis – on replay – I did my best to avoid the results – but- once I know the result, I just watch the highlights
Whoever wins wont have an asterisk
Oh, yes they will have an asterisk, make no mistake.
And you know it as well. That is exactly why you’re bringing this up.
I think people can tell when its me
Oh all 3 for Medvedev..hmm
What was the prediction for uso final, anyone remembers ?
Djokovic said he will play uso final as if it was his last match . Rafa just said will play his best.
My worry is only on 2 counts – the fitness and endurance in a long match and the pressure of the occasion on verge of history .
Rafa may not be the fav on current form or recent results or surface preference or age but then if destiny wants to reward him for all the work n toil n injuries that have robbed him ,this maybe the time. It will surely be a historic story though if he wins 21 n double career grand slam at the same event where he has least slams
Rafa will enter the match as the underdog.
Medvedev obviously will try and do what djokovic does against nadal.
Hoping Rafa brings his A game. Anything less wont suffice.
Vamos Rafa
21st slam in the making towards his 24th.
My heart says of course Rafa, but my brain says Medvedev.
It’s a miracle and testament of his enduring class that Rafa is even in the final. But Daniil is nowadays in a different league than the six opponents Rafa has faced so far. Medvedev improved in the mental department, and he doesn’t fear the Big Three anymore. Medvedev is also an experienced slam finalist by now. And unlike Rafa for whom the upcoming final may be his best chance to win a second AO trophy, Medvedev has no pressure at all. The future is his, and he will become a multiple slam winner for sure, if he stays healthy.
However, Rafa is a mental GOAT. On a tennis court he may well be one of the most intelligent players ever – a fact which has often been overlooked even by many experts when he was in his physical prime. His speed, his endurance and his raw power was more obvious. But the aging Agassi who played against Rafa in a Montreal final, noticed that his still very young opponent wasn’t just brawny but had also plenty of brains. Agassi, who lost that final dominated the match at first, but when Rafa realized that he did not hurt Agassi, he made mid-match adjustments, and Agassi said later that he was suddenly playing against a totally different opponent. Since these long bygone years Rafa has gained a wealth of experience, and nobody questions his intelligence and his mental prowess. But he is not at his physical best, yet, and his opponent is also intelligent and ten years younger. Therefore most experts have picked Medvedew. But the rowdy AO crowd will be firmly behind Rafa, and nobody would be overly surprised if Rafa’s improbable run into the final will have a happy ending after all!
i think a lot of people will be surprised!
Ha, ha Ricky! We can state now with certainty, that a lot of people have been surprised – and the bookies have made quite a bit of money 😉 However, those who have bet that Rafa would win in five after having lost the first two sets, should be partying now!
Test:
All my recent attempts to comment have vanished into cyberspace. Why?? I am using another email address. And while my brain says that Medvedev will win the trophy, I hope nevertheless that Rafa’s improbable ride into another AO final will have a happy end 😀
Ok, this worked well. Here’s to a great final!
News
Stat of the Day: Rafael Nadal has now won 21 of his last 25 Grand Slam semifinals
The Spaniard is through to his 29th final in 63 career Grand Slams played—that’s 46%.
By
John Berkok
Published Jan 28, 2022
https://www.tennis.com/baseline/articles/stat-of-the-day-rafael-nadal-has-won-21-of-his-last-25-grand-slam-semifinals
Vr awaiting your pick
Nadal in 4 sets.
Vamos Rafa. Go get the win.
Rafa has won 84% of his Grand Slam finals.
Vamos Rafa!
Same with Laver but I wouldn’t be backing him to beat Medvedev!
Nadline, these statistics would be even nore impressive, if we exclude Rafa’s AO finals. He has never lost one of his 13 FO finals, and he lost only one Wimby final out of three and one US Open final out of five. Both losses were inflicted by Djokovic , and it happened in 2011, when Djokovic became the bogeyman for all rafafans because he amassed an incredibly streak of consecutive wins against Rafa. And since Rafa and Novak were the two top ranked players in 2011, all these losses against the Djoker happened in finals.
The AO is the only major where Rafa has a negative final record, and he only won one out of five. If Rafa wins tomorrow, he would end a streak which lasted for 13 years!
FYI, Rafa lost 3 Winmbledon finals, won 2.
For rafafans it’s a bit disheartening to see that virtually all tennis experts have picked Medvedev 😞 Of course this doesn’t mean that these predictions will actually become true. Most experts picked Zverev over Shapo, and we all know how that ended. But the fact that Medvedev is the clear betting favorite confirms my own nagging doubts.
Let’s hope that some people earn a of money because they backed the underdog 😉
I’m very surprised all experts picked Medvedev. Also, he’s bookies’ favourite.
For me it’s more like a 50-50.
55-45 at best for the Russian. Anyway, well done Rafa. Impressive start of the year. Now I finally understand why I chose to like Fed. I was not sure for a long time. It’s about style. I prefer any day the style of Shapo and Tsitsi over Med and Djoko. Although their defense is really amazing.
Med got really upset during his match with Cressy which could have gone 5 so maybe Rafa should serve and volley!😀😀
While doing the basics very well the key shot for Rafa to win is the same as against Novax. He has to be able to break up the patterns of play by repeatedly hitting his fhdtl. Otherwise he will end up trading backhands. If that happens there is only one winner.
Has to be aggressive and shorten the points so also hoping for some drop shots. He needs to get Med off balance.
You should really contact Rafa to tell him that.
Medal final I coined a phrase
I actually like “Medal” 😉
I don’t think it will be a lasting rivalry. But this match is so significant that a great nickname is needed.
their last 3 matches by themselves deserve a nickname. they have been epic.
Popcorn ready!!!…..Heart says Rafa but brain says Med….in 4.
None of the experts talked about mental game when it come to finals endurance is important and same as mental game 50/50. Nadal I think has the best mental game in the game and Medvedev is still learning in that category. There is a chance that nadal wins this match on mental basis than endurance. Should be great to watch who handles the pressure better. My money is on nadal to take this slamm and become the first to 21 after what Novak did to him in French I think rafa wants to steal Australia and he will get it done! Vamos rafa!
One intangible is that Rafa has never lost to anyone other than djokerer at a grand slam final, the wawrinka back injury loss, not withstanding.
For all the talk of Medvedev being the favorite, he too has not played lights out and has been stretched by his draw.
Rafa will not get a better opportunity to win an AO than this.
Rafa in 4🤞🏻🤞🏻
What surprises me I’d just about no analyst or expert is picking Rafa and all bookies are favoring Med
If Rafa now wins ,it will be even sweeter as no one is giving him a chance.
I again repeat , it will be historic to get no 21 and double career slam together at his least successful slam. Go for it Rafa . God bless and may the force be with you.
Sanju, I am also a bit puzzled that absolutely no expert has picked Rafa. Not even Steve Tignor – although that may actually be a blessing, since the “Tignor Curse” is well documented and widely feared 😉
Jokes aside, I understand that most experts are sceptical about Rafa’s ability to reach his best level against a young opponent after his long injury break and his recent covid-infection. It’s obviously sensible to pick Medvedew.
you can pick against Rafa and still think he has a CHANCE….
I don’t believe that Medvedev has played better than Rafa through the rounds. Cressy, who Rafa beat in straight sets in Melbourne Summer Set, took Med to 4 sets and Med was lucky to come out of that match the winner. Kyrgios took him to 4 sets and Felix took hi to 5 sets and even had a MP and Tsitsipas took him to 4 sets.
Anyone would think that Med went through his draw swimmingly. Rafa had 2 four set matches and 1 four set match.
Basicly, Rafa is a better match player than Med and had it been the other way round, Med supporters would have highlighted their h2h which I agree is only relevant up to a point but cannot be ignored.
I think punters are relying on the ranking in their choice but we all know that numbers do lie, especially with the Covid factor.
I am disappointed to see so many analysts picking Med. So little respect for Rafa. What he has done to get to the final, is nothing short of miraculous. I did not have any expectations at the start of the tournament. I just did not know how Rafa would play. He started with an ugly draw. Then it opened up enough to give him chances. But all I heard was that he could not beat Zverev in the quarterfinals. I tried not to think past that.
Then Zverev lost and suddenly there was the real possibility Rafa could go further. We saw how difficult it was for him with the heat stroke. But somehow he won that match.
Rafa finally get done breaks this time at the AO. He has been a warrior to get through to the final. He is smart enough to know that this is a huge opportunity. I will be there supporting him all the way and the hell with the pundits and analysts.
The bookies are using algorithm and as Medvedev is seeded higher than Rafa the computer says he’s the favourite.
You nailed it! The bookies use seedings to determine their odds!
“I am disappointed to see so many analysts picking Med. So little respect for Rafa. What he has done to get to the final, is nothing short of miraculous.”
How dumb are you, seriously?
Good point.
Anonymous,
Not as dumb as you! Coward! Hiding under “Anonymous”! Stupid coward!
You are just a troll hiding your real self. Reading your mindless drivel and how you put everyone else down would be laughable if it wasn’t so insulting.
Have the guys to show who you are. Oh I forgot. You have no guts. You are a know nothing who needs to prop up a sagging, insecure ego.
What a waste!
Have the GUTS!
You’re right; I will change my name to native Sydneysider and stop hiding my identity.
Another one of your highly intellectual posts!
NNY, I really don’t think that not picking Rafa has anything to do with disrespect. Rafa’s run into his 6th AO final has earned him a lot of additional respect. However, it was a miracle after his injury-dominated last year and his recent covid-infection. A win in the final against a very talented opponent, who is ten years younger and who has won the last hardcourt slam against Novak, would be an additional miracle. But the picking business isn’t about miracles or about paying respect but about probabilities. This doesn’t mean that miracles don’t happen once in a while. Rafa might well be the guy who is able to make them happen. And if he loses that final, he still accomplished much more than most people expected!
littlefoot,
I get it. I was thinking to myself that this slam has been difficult for Rafa. One win here. So much bad stuff happening to him. I also reminded myself that Rafa has been off for six months. He has not played best of five set matches since last year. He had Covid.
So I was a bit too sensitive, it’s nothing personal. Med is the favorite at this time. It’s been a great run.
Sometimes one gets a bit too wrested and takes things personally. It made me think about something Rafa said some years ago. He said that people can predict whatever they want. But in the end it is what happens on the court that matters. You have to go out there and win.
So be it.
yep. Has nothing to do with disrespect. I don’t think people realize just how big of an upset a 35-year-old Nadal coming back from a 5-month injury beating a 25-year-old Medvedev on a hard curt would be.
It’s amazing how much consideration you’ve been giving to age recently. Well done, you deserve all the credit.
Ricky,
Yes that’s true. To be honest, I couldn’t foresee him getting to the final. It is not about disrespect at all. I just took it wrong. My emotions got the better of me. On paper Med is the favorite. It remains to be seen if we have an upset.
I will be watching.
It’s 80/20 in not in Nadal’s favour.
After taking all the dumb money on Nadal the bookies are now adjusting their lines to where they should be. Love their work!
👍🏼
At last I can see where Ricky is coming from. Age didn’t stop experts picking Roger against everyone for everything for years, as far as I can remember.
That wasnt on clay against a superior clay courter.
Rafa got SOME breaks!
Nadline and NNY I am with you. I re-watched the 2019 US Open. There is no doubt Medvedev is not a push over but looking at the match at least an objective analyst could say it is 50-50. The only reason I have a little concern it is just because Nadal is unlucky at the AO but i think he is at the same level and maybe slightly better than Med at the AO hardcourt. Last US OPEN every analyst picked Djokovic to win eventhough he was not playing great tennis. Nadal in 4 is more likely and I think he could do it in 3.
Why in 3? In 2 or one maybe…
Stop posting dumb posts as me.
Yes I watched their 2019 USO final when they both traded shots from the baseline but Rafa is hasn’t been playing fron the baseline in this tournament. Yesterday his practice session was all about the volley so we shall see.
Nadal has played only one night match where Medvedev has played few. Is it a concern?
Raj, Rafa played his best match at night against Berrettini and it was during a day match that he was taken to 5 sets by Shapo because of the heat.
Wilander has said Rafa will win. Not sure whether he is saying this to build suspense on Eurosport..
NK has said Ash is a great player but HE is the one heading the tv ratings and creating the best atmosphere ever at the AO.
The guy really is a narcissistic douchebag…
Well, we already knew that! But I guess he’s compelled to keep proving it.
amy,
LOL! I love it! Narcissistic douchebag! I think NK may have some competition from Anonymous! He truly has delusions of grandeur about himself!
Wilander, otherwise known as Trollander? 😉 Yes he’s picked Rafa this time but I think it’s only because both he and Henman have been put on opposite sides to make the case for either player. Trollander is generally in the anti-Rafa camp when it comes to picking favourites for titles.
I’ve now read a vast quantity of weather forecasts.
They are all different. Some have it hot and sunny some hot and cloudy, cooler and cloudy..!
Only one has it raining and I really really hope that one isn’t right as playing under the roof would benefit Med.
Fingers crossed!
Go Rafa!!
Okay, I am going to share my thoughts over 2 posts. Apologies of the length!
It’s a tough one to call isn’t it. On one hand, you have Medvedev who is a beast on hard courts and is capable of beating anyone on this surface. He is physically super strong and mentally taken on the likes of Nadal and Djokovic before. The only thing we haven’t seen from him is, how does he play these big finals when he is considered to be the favourite? Honestly haven’t seen enough play enough of these matches to tell. I know he won USO but Novak was far from his mental game in that match and we know what happened in AO 21 final.
Rafa, on the other hand, has been pulling a rabbit out of the hat time and time again. He’s surpassed all expectations. He seems to be great clarity on the court and tactically he is extremely aware of what is needed. He has made adjustments during matches and has had the right What we don’t quite know is whether he is ready for the physical grind. The guy maybe isn’t that match tough yet? Probably the adrenaline and his will power will give him enough to play 5 sets if need be?
Here’s what Rafa needs to do in my view and I think this what the plan would be:
1. Be aggressive with the serve and take chances. Doesn’t matter if it’s the final. He is serving 7-8 mph quicker than he was in 2019. It is NOT easy to attack his second serve at the moment.
2. Serve and volley every now and then! Medvedev is so deep on the return and there is space and time to come in, esp on the ad court. I hope Med’s quality of return won’t make him hesitate.
3. Finding the right ROS balance. I think he’ll start by returning very close to the baseline and go out all attack. He would want to keep rallies shorter. If Med finds a crazy serving rhythm, he’ll step back just like he did in that 4th set against Berettini.
4. Use the backhand slice smartly. I think he’s use this quite well. Once he hits a quality slice, he is ready to respond with a huge backhand CC or a forehand DTL. I think the slice is a key shot for this as Med is slightly superior in those CC exchanges. Med’s shots are very flat and I remember Federer once bullied him around the court with his slices and variation. He wasn’t too comfortable playing Cressy either. Don’t give him all that rhythm, Rafa. I read that Barty also mentioned this surface is reacting well to slices.
I think the match will be played in 25-26 C degrees with the roof open so the temperature is good. Rafa is one of the best ever at playing slam finals and I think he has the edge mentally.
Rafa has the edge for rallies under 5 shots and he has the weapons to win longer rallies. Med’s forehand is an improved shot but still lacks some firepower.
Apart from the physical concerns, another one I have is Rafa’s concentration/intensity lapses that we have seen. That is probably due to not playing competitive slam for months.
IF Rafa can serve lights out and keep winning those crucial free points, I think he narrowly takes this match in 4 sets. If the serve is not up to the mark and he has too many lapses (which I think won’t be the case since this is a slam final) I think he loses.
Finally, to me the match is more on Rafa’s racket. He is the more offensive player and even in their indoor matches, when Rafa has really tightened the screws, I’ve seen him dictate play. Sure, Med’s backhand can stand up to Rafa’s forehand but I think Rafa will take more initiatives. May good luck be with you, champ. Go get it!
VR,
NEVER apologize for long posts!! We all admire your tennis acumen and it’s a pleasure to read your posts.
I think this match could go any which way, to tell the truth. Med is not that consistent mentally. Rafa is. Couple that with the sheer joy he is feeling in just playing tennis at the moment. Sure, he wants to win but whichever way this goes he’s a very happy camper! Me, too. Rafa’s had a glorious career. Everything we get from him from now on is gravy! He’s done way better at this AO than *anyone* expected.
haha, thanks Ramara!
And 100% agreed, we did not expect this at all. Rafa is so content with himself and I feel he will be more relaxed. He won’t burden himself like Novak did either. Sure, he’ll give his all to win no.21 and knows how close he is.
Of course he’s content because Novak is not on the other side of net.
Nothing to do with that. Absolutely nothing
VR,
It really is a privilege to read your analysis of the final. I am okay with however long you wish to go on.
I am concerned about Rafa’s lapses. I absolutely think it’s due to lack of competitive slam match play.
I know this will be tough. I was not prepared for him to get to the final. Do you care that most analysts are predicting a win for Med?
Don’t care at all, NNY. Medvedev is perhaps a safer choice most people are going with that.
For instance, the points mentioned by Ricky are also valid regarding Med’s defense and backhand. It’s a close contest. To me it is key that Rafa serves to the best of his abilities. If he does that, I am hoping he’ll squeeze it out.
VR, i agree with your detailed and knowledeable analysis. This year’s AO final is very hard to predict, and I don’t believe in propping up or denigrating a player because his fans only want to hear positive messages and his detractors want to hear about negative aspects.
There is the very real possibility that Rafa will Lose another AO final. But positive or negative predictions have no influence whatsoever on the actual outcome of the match!
VR,
I know that Med has some real weapons in his game. I appreciate your honesty about the final. I have no doubt it will be tough. It’s hard because I was so unprepared for him to get to the final. I just blocked it out of my mind. You have been very straightforward about what it will take for Rafa to win. Rafa has said it himself. He has to play his best. He knows how tough it will be against Med.
@littlefoot, well said! What we would like to happen or genuinely think will happen is not going to have any impact on what happens on the court. It’s hard to see a dull final happening, that’s for sure. Both are great fighters and Daniil will do what he does best: be there like a wall to defend and keep punching holes in his opponent’s armour until they are down.
Rafa will be the one to take initiatives (although Med can also come up with some surprises with clever net approaches) and try to take matters into this hands more often. His team would have seen how FAA had Medvedev at his mercy and they’ll try to accomplish something similar in terms of dynamics.
VR,
The Novak fans are upset because Rafa is in the final. Some of them are the worst of the worst. They are bent out of shape because Nivsk is not on the itgervsyde of the net! Rafa is not thinking about Novak.
NNY, yes, Rafa is well aware of the challenge but I am sure he has all the belief. Medvedev is great but he ain’t Novak. His backhand is amazing but lacks the ability to take balls on the rise Novak does and change direction as effortlessly. Watch out for those slices from Rafa! We are most likely in for a treat as tennis fans and I am hoping we’ll end with a fist pumping spree celebrating something unprecedented
I agree with you VR, the match is on Rafa’s racket. If he comes out all guns blazing and manages to win the first two sets, he will have a good chance of winning the match.
I know Rafa is known for his dip in level in set three, probably to take a breather as he couldn’t sustain playing at a high level consistently for two hours or so, but he’s able to find his high level again in set four to win the match (two out of three times), and managed to win the only five setter he played here despite not too well physically.
Meddy will be all over the place retrieving and hitting incredible passing shots, and serving big, and bigger with precision when in trouble, saving BPs and probably SPs along the way. Rafa will push him time after time and find a way to penetrate that Meddy defence.
If Rafa can be fit and ready and playing without too much pressure or nerve, I like his chances. Meddy will try to play his best tennis of course, though he may not be physically fresh I would think.
This come out blasting approach that Nadal employs may not work as well against Medvedev as it has against previous opponents. Medvedev is not Berrettini or Shapovalov.
I’m sure Medvedev will be ready for it and is not planning to lose 2 of the first 3 sets like everyone else.
Anonymous, And Rafa is not Felix or Cressy.
lucky,
Thanks for your thoughts. We have both you and VR in the house. Good for us!
😄
Well that’s on Novak!
VR,
I will be watching for those slices. That’s why I like your analysis. Then I can keep my eye out for these things. I was hoping to take a nap before the match. I think that’s the only way I can stay up to see it live.
haha, good luck! tricky for your guys in the stats. It is 8.30 am for us in the UK so decent timing.
@Amy will be up I guess!
perfect timing for you
Ill be watching – but on replay- depending what time I get out of bed
And while I will hope Med will win – I appreciate Rafas effort after injury and the passion of his fans on here -if he wins it will be well deserved
Al,
I just wanted to say thank you.
😀
And my gut feeling was absolutely right Nadal was going to win that but who saw him coming from two sets down
And he did deserve it one of the best comebacks of all time
Yes thank you Al! Respect to you!😀
I think this whole match will be no0t so much about tactics more the 20 Slam winner against the newbie one
After taking all the dumb money on Nadal the bookies are now adjusting their lines to where they should be. Love their work!
https://www.braingametennis.com/the-numbers-nadal-v-medvedev/
VR read this
Nice one! Rafa has been less prone to errors and interestingly has done 1% better in the 9+ shots category. I think today his forte will be 5-9 shots
Wake up guys and girls. King is playing soon.
Hello Eugene!
BG has picked Rafa to win in 4
vamos BG!
Good morning vr!
I just read your excellent posts. Thank you!!😀
Morning! Thanks Amy. The roof is closed?
Is it? Due to technology problems I have no coverage!
The roof being closed is very bad news..
Vamooss!! Lets go Rafa.. “Not one negative face”
The roof is wide open 😀sunny day it is!
Vamos Rafa! ❤️
Why did vr say the roof is closed!?
Let’s do this Rafa!
I prob misheard the Eurosport folks. It is wide open indeed
!
I thought the roof is open.
It is
That’s good for Rafa.
Hello nny!
Good luck to our Rafa! Vr has been spreading disinformation to keep people on their toes..
hahaha. apologies!
No need for added torture vr!
Hi amy,
I did not take a nap, so I don’t know if I can hang in there. I will try.
The crowd is insanely behind Rafa.
I hope my nerves survive this.
Hello.dear nny, I have no coverage so I am going to come back in a while…It’s too stressful just to have live scores…
Rod Laver will be presenting the trophy.
Vamos Rafa!
😍
Medvedev knows this match is on his racquet. All he has to do is keep the ball in play.
171 kph (106 mph) 2nd serve to win the game point! Vamos!
VR, thanks for the conversion. He has really amped up the speed on the second serve.
Wait until Medvedev goes through the gears. He’s in 1st gear right now.
I think Rafa just woke up.
he’s gonna have to start holding serve easier
Couple of mistakes by Medvedev going the wrong way. A bit too casual atm.
Dont worry, that will all change soon enough.
Nadal already trying to slow the game down
Troll alert.
Medvedev is now the odds I said he should’ve been before the match (1.40-1.45)
Rafa is a bit like a deer in the headlights right now… too nervous imo
Too nervous or too exhausted?
Nadal sweating up is like a race horse before a race. They never win.
Rafa”s serve isn’t working.. and Med is playing great as expected.. let’s hope Rafa improves his serve..
Vamos Rafa!
yep, serve needs to improve significantly. Med is NOT missing anything.
Sighh, serve broken. He has been pushed in every service game. Some obervations so far:
1. First serve % is low at 55% and Med is doing a great job returning 2nd serves from deep behind, allowing Rafa to win 3/10 (33%) points only.
2. It is very obvious now how Rafa is trying to use his backhand slice to set up or sometimes disrupt patterns.
3. Rafa has been the one trying to take initiatives a bit more but he he has missed quite a lot somehow. 5 winners to 12 UE and Med’s 6 winners vs 5 UE’s.
4. Rafa has tried S&V once so trying to mix it up but first serve % too low while Med is serving at 81% !
Medvedev goes”you wanna be a big man with the inside out forehand? I’ll hit a driving volley”
Match is over. have a good evening everyone.
So much for Nadal being up 2-1 and Medvedev having to fight back clutch and win it in 5 Lol
Ricky was on the money there.
Omg 2019 vibes
I don’t think he is being bullied around the court or anything. He has been able to set up quite a few points but finds himself undone by errors or brilliant defense from Med (which will happen and you need to accept). The errors need to go down and boy, the quality of serving is NOT good enough for a slam final let alone against Med.
Rafa’s serve is the problem as always. I think he plays the wrong strategy of rallying with Meddy, perhaps thinking that Meddy may be tired. He’s hitting to Meddy’s Bh too often I feel.
He has to change his pattern of play if not it will be game over. Calm down Rafa, think of ways to solve problems. By hook or by crook go out there to attack! You need to rush that Meddy guy and make him run for his shots.
That set was just Rafa being loose.. hope he can buck up from here and make the win even more epic..
If he does not manage to win set 2 it will be an uphill task
Well, that bit of momentum was short lived.
nothing nadal loves more than giving back breaks
The way it is going now seems .Ed is going to finish in 3. Though brain was saying med wanted rafa to win not for 21 but to break curse for ao.
Humm. Rafa can not hold his serve. Break back again
Vamos Rafaaaaa!!!!!!! No matter what!
Hey all Rafans! He did it!!!!!
#BE21EVE
Hi, Hawkeye, I hope you are well!
This win was the most incredible thing, Rafa ever accomplished in his long and great career 🙂
VAMOS RAFA.
Rafa proved everyone wrong.
What an absolutely outrageous achievement seeing where he was few weeks back
Think we are all half dead after that!
No words.
Congratulations all Rafa Fans here.
The way rafa lost the 2nd set after having it in the bag, i felt rafa will not have what it takes in the next set , but he proved me wrong.
This slam win is up there with his best ever wins.Came back 2 sets down in a GS final against an on fire much younger medvedev. Talk about outrageous.
Glad to see all the experts and bookies proven wrong Hahahaha. Some people lost some serious money today XD.
Hope you’ve all noticed how anonymous has disappeared now Rafa won!😀What an extraordinary AO this has been. Ash winning! Rafa winning from 2 sets down when he nearly didn’t play!
Epic epic drama!😀
Could this AO have been any worse for Novax?!
Thinking that Meddy is off his Xmas card list now…
Yes, deporting Novak was literally the only way how Rafa could have won this.
You’ve got that right.
No wonder Rafa didn’t offer any support when Novak was treated poorly by the Australian government.
But what goes around, comes around…
Wonderful tribute from Fed!
Why was this one so much easier to watch than USO 2019? Maybe that was just me. Or maybe I didn’t expect it from him at all, which helped. Maybe having little expectations about his own chances helped Rafa as well in set 5. He was clearly the better player in set 5 and fresher too. Its barely believable given his age.
Amy ..the Novak fans are acting like such sore losers .so f#₹34&-+ petty i tell you .a guy just battled for 5 hrs 20 ,came from 2 sets down n made history beating a guy 10 years younger n a beast on HC, yet these guys are going on n on about the asterisk..i mean atleast show the grace to appreciate what u seen .their own guy crumbled under the weight n lost in straight sets trying to get 21..they are flummoxed how did Rafa get so much energy n ofcourse being suspicious. There is something called adrenaline n willpower ,I guess they never heard about it .
Btw not Novak n Rafa got their double career gs from 2 sets down ..coincidence .though this match was way way better
I am very happy seeing the entire tennis universe lauding Rafa. It just goes to show how much he is liked and that is just due to his incredible work ethic ..u just cannot grudge such a person’s success ..u just can’t as he works so hard
Many players have used word goat and king in their felicitations
Anonymous ke liye khaas 2 line ..I’m sure all desis or those who know Hindi will understand typical mumbai Bollywood style 🙂 ..chal re nikal patli gali se, kat le , Rafa ne tujhe Rafa dafa kar diya ..jaake roke dub maar apni bil main 🙂
hahaha
I said during the match that Medvedev’s level of complacency was a concern.
I feel asleep and didn’t see the ending but he must’ve been shell shocked when he lost that match.
He was far too casual and Nadal picked up on it.
********************************************************************************
There ya go, Anon. Just for you. Thanks for the comic relief!
So Djoker wins how many AOs where Nadal was injured and there’s no asterisk? Not to mention his two RGs – no asterisk there either. Just Rafa to get one because Novax was too stupid to defend his title… really?
Maybe Rafa is not the best tennis player of all times – that debate is anyway subjective and almost impossible to settle. However, today he proved his greatness once again and I really can’t think of any tennis player greater than him.
The big lesson from thus is there’s 3 types of stupid.
The stupid that was sweating up like a racehorse in set 1 & 2, the stupid that was complacent didn’t close out a match he should’ve won 3-0 and the stupid public that idolises the first type of stupid.
The moral of the story: Humanity is pretty darn stupid.
The math is simple.
Rafa has never beaten Novak in AO, nor he ever will.
Novak has beaten Rafa on RG.
Twice.
Med beat Novak at last year’s USO. When he was going for the calendar slam. In straight sets. Med Wilber the number one player after Novak’s points come off. He is the best player at this time. He was considered to be the co-favorite with Novak at the AO.
Rafa beat the best player in the game now on his best surface. Case closed.
Not so much.
AO is no USO.
Besides, Novak had far more pressure on him in that match than anyone since 1969.
So, do think straigt when drawing conclusions.
By the way, do you honestly think that Rafa would have beaten Novak in the semis, if Novak was allowed to play?
Do answer this, please.
I do! It’s his destiny, just like it’s Djoko’s destiny to win that 2012 AO final even when Rafa was leading in the final set!
It’s also destined that Djoko would not win the Olympics singles gold, the USO title that would have won him the calendar slam and slam no.21; and also the COVID 19 situation that he had to forego defending his AO title in 2022.
Just imagine, winning the Olympics gold and the USO would make him the only guy to win all four slams plus an Olympics singles gold medal all within a single year, and I think only a woman player Steffi Graf had done that! And, he would have won slam no.21 at that USO and became the leader in the slam race, and would have a good chance of winning his 10th AO (slam no.22, two clear of his two great rivals and second man to win double digit titles at a slam) in 2022, making him the first man in the open era to have won five slams in a row, and four AO titles in a row!
It’s not meant to be, just like how disappointed or even upset we Rafa fans were in 2009, when Rafa was going for his five in a row FO titles, at that time how would we know Rafa could come back to win five in a row from 2010 to 2014? All I could feel at that time in 2009 was sadness, sadness for Rafa, that he couldn’t accomplish that five in a row, something both Fed and Borg had achieved at a particular slam (or two for Fed). Just one more year that’s required and he couldn’t make it, I mean, how many five years a sportsman could have at the top of his game?
All these things happened for a reason or two; Fed won his FO when Rafa was knocked out of the FO early but Fed was the most prepared guy to step up and so he won the title; Djoko beat Rafa at the FO in 2015 but he wasn’t the best player there and so Stan won the title that year. In 2016 Rafa had to withdraw from FO after winning R2 because of a wrist injury; Djoko stepped up and won the title that year.
This AO, Djoko couldn’t make it to the AO and Rafa stepped up, fought hard to win the title, over a red hot USO champion, who’s tipped to win the title in Djoko’s absence (and would’ve given Djoko a run for his money too had Djoko played and made the final).
Djoko will regret this someday – two hard court Slam titles he could have won – but his own fault he was defaulted/ banned for thinking he was above the rules…
For sometime now Ive been bored with the Big Three thing and hoping new players would take over… but we vmight have to wait a couple of years.
It makes sense, in a way, but not completely accurate.
He was playing by the rules, as was shown in the court.
And those rules… Now that’s really something.
Just imagine if a country unilaterally sets entry rules, like:
what if China said only athletes that are vaccinated with Chinese vaccine can enter China to participate Winter Olympic Rules?
Or, what if Aussies were even stricter and said, only Australian citizens can compete on this year’s AO, due to covid restrictions…
If you want to replicate a society from a Handmaiden’s Tale, just don’t host international events.
Big Al, the Big Three thing is still not quite over, but we are definitely at the rear end of this long running saga. The young guys have matured by now, and they are definitely able to beat any member of the trio, although they won’t always accomplish a win. Therefore tennis should be very interesting in the near future.
Beating a healthy Rafa in Paris might still be the most difficult feat. As to Novak – I think he will be back with a vengeance, and who knows what he is willing to do in order to sort out his covid problems…I do not see Federer as a future slam winner, though. But who knows for sure? Most of us thought that Rafa will not win a second AO trophy – and certainly not after a lengthy injury break! Well, most of us were wrong!
There was nothing stopping Novax from listening to the same medical advice we all have to and just getting that jab, was there? Then he could have played
Al,
But you are being logical. Coward Anonymous does not understand the concept of logic. All he had to do was get vaccinated. Like the 97 out of 100 mens players who did.
No dumb conspiracies. Just rules in a pandemic. Every country has the right to protect its citizens from the spread of a dangerous virus. It is life and death.
Every country does. Just then leave hosting of a Grand Slam to some other country that does the job properly.
Or just make AO only for australian citexens only.
“Coward Anonymous”?
Wow, calling names. That really speaks volumes of you.
I am simply ignoring any comments from the army of trolls bravely posting as Anonymous. I strongly recommend others to do the same.
Cristian,
You think it’s more than one person?
Yes, I suspect that we are getting some attention from the Russian troll farm.
Aah, the know-it-all Cristian is back in action.
It seems that there is no subject where you are not the expert.
Dear tennis fans and dear rafafans,
As I have said earlier, I had picked Medvedev for the win – like the majority of tennis experts – and for quite a while it looked as if I was right, although I was not at all happy about being right. And then a miracle happened! I have to eat crow, and I like it! Rafa’s tenacity, grit, will power and his extraordinary intelligence made this miracle possible!
The AO got their record breaking hour of sparkling tennis history after all, although the protagonist was not the defending champion who had been originally cast in that role by the leading AO executives 😉 But I really don’t think that we will hear a lot of talk about asterisks and such nonsense. After all Rafa has beaten a few quality oponents on the way into the final, where he won against the guy who half a year ago beat Novak in NY fairly easily in straight sets. And Medvedev was the guy who denied Novak the 21st slam trophy as well as the calendar slam! I am very sure that Medvedev will become a multi-slam winner eventually, although right now he still has to fight against the GOATs who are reluctant to leave the stage just yet.
And Novak? He is probably very cross with Daniil right now 😉 and if Rafa’s victory doesn’t persuade him to get vaxxed ASAP, I don’t know what will…
Btw, if we look at improbable records: is there another tennis player who has managed to win a slam tournament 13 years after winning it for the first time, but failing to win the trophy in between? Obviously all three GOATs have won the trophy 13 or more years after winning the first one at their respective favorite tournament, which would be Roger’s Wimbledon. Rafa’s FO and Novak’s AO. But I think it is stunning that Rafa managed to pull this off at the AO of all places and on his least favorite surface!
https://youtu.be/HDRZ-AZ3Qko
Meddy’s kid died pc and some really gracious words abt Rafa
just to be clear, Medvedev does not have a kid who died