There were two all-Big 3 Grand Slam finals in 2019, but before the next generation takes over (which appears to be a long way off still!) we seem to be in a transition period of Big 3 vs. non-Big 3 finals.
Another such installment will take center stage when Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem battle for the Australian Open title on Sunday night. Thiem has reached this stage at each of the last two French Opens (lost to Rafael Nadal on both occasions), while Daniil Medvedev is the other 20-something to have made a breakthrough of sorts (also lost to Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open championship match). Djokovic continues to rack up major titles, and he has mostly done it at the expense of Nadal and Roger Federer as opposed to beating the younger crowd of Thiem, Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and others.
Speaking of Zverev, he and Thiem squared off in the second Aussie Open semifinal on Friday night. Experience may have made a slight difference for the fifth-ranked Austrian, whose fifth slam semifinal appearance saw him prevail 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Thiem preceded that result with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt (five sets), Taylor Fritz, Gael Monfils, and Nadal.
Djokovic has endured no tests like the ones his upcoming opponent received from Nadal and Zverev. The second-ranked Serb dropped one set to Jan-Lennard Struff in his opening match but has since reeled off consecutive straight-set defeats of Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, Milos Raonic, and a less-than-100 percent Roger Federer.
“I’ve been feeling well,” the seven-time Aussie Open champion understated. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
Success has not been easy to come by against Thiem, who is a respectable 4-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series and an eye-popping 4-1 in their last five meetings. They faced each other three times last year, all resulting in absolute thrillers. Djokovic got the job done 7-6(2), 7-6(4) in Madrid before Thiem triumphed twice in row at Roland Garros (6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in the semifinals) and at the Nitto ATP Finals (6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) during round-robin action). Three of Thiem’s four recent wins, however, have come on clay; Djokovic still leads 3-1 on hard courts.
“I have to risk a lot,” the 26-year-old assured. “I have to go for many shots. At the same time, of course, not too much. That’s a very thin line. In the last match against him, (I) hit that line perfectly in London. Of course (I’m) going to take a look at that match, how I played, and try to repeat it.
“But for sure he’s the favorite. I mean, he won seven titles here–never lost a final, going for his eighth one.”
As Thiem pointed out, Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite for a reason. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is the best player ever at the Australian Open and he has been the best player throughout this fortnight. Moreover, Thiem has spent seven hours and 52 minutes on court in his past two matches and he also has one less day of rest than Djokovic prior to Sunday’s festivities.
As we saw at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals, Thiem’s peak is good enough to test and even beat Djokovic. But it is much harder to sustain that kind of level in a best-of-five situation–especially on the Serb’s Melbourne Park stomping grounds.
Pick: Djokovic in 4
[crowdsignal poll=10499195]
WHO YA GOT?
Ricky..why do u so hare Novak? For God sake, who Novak beat at his last 2 GS finals? Rafa and Roger. And u said Novak wins GS, at expense of Roger and Rafa. Accept the fact, u and all other biased western tennis writers, that NOVAK WILL BE GOAT when all big 3 finishes careers. I predict an easy win for Novak, 3 sets w 1 tb.All the best, Ricky Dimon.
Relax eech. He has to win 4 more slams. When he does 20, you can argue, nit now.
I apologize, Ricky, bad translation. You want to say that he has beaten Roger and Rafa in the GS finals. I apologize one more time.😊👍😉🤗
Dominic’s best is now good enough to beat Novak on a HC. He brought something very close to it against Rafa in QF, and was a bit under-cooked against Zverev but still prevailed. Djokovic, meanwhile, is past his best. Federer was able to dominate early in the first set, before the effects of injury set in, and fairly dominated their last two matches as well, apart from the wimby tie-breaks. That was not true 3 years ago at AO, when Djokovic’s best was pretty much unstoppable.
The key to this match will be Thiem’s ability to return the improved Djokovic serve. I think he will do it well enough to create a few break chances, which he will need to do to counter-balance the likelihood that Novak will be able to make some inroads against the Thiem serve. There will almost certainly be some tri-breakers, which both players have excelled at recently. This time, I think Thiem will come out on top. Thiem in 5.
I feel like Djokovic is in very good form right now, though obviously he might not reach the lofty heights of 2011 or 2015/2016 again.
In the first set against Fed he did look rattled, which was a little surprising. But maybe not so much when you consider the circumstances: As you say, the previous two Djokovic/Federer matches have involved a lot of aggressive play from Federer where he’s dictating the points, which isn’t always the case historically.
This time Fed was clearly hampered, and Djokovic would’ve felt confident. But Fed was still going for broke and I think he caught his opponent off guard with how effectively he threw caution to the wind. You could see that Djokovic was unable to get much rhythm and as a result made some uncharacteristic errors that probably should’ve cost him the first set. After Fed squandered his opportunities Djokovic recovered momentum, and he became increasingly comfortable as the match wore on.
I think Thiem’s best is enough to beat Djoker on HC, he has the ability to take large cuts from the back of the court like Wawrinka, which can cause problems for the Djokovic defence. If he’s going to win it will have to be pretty grueling though, and I’m a little concerned because Thiem didn’t look as sharp against Zverev and he has one less day of rest. Still, he is the younger man and one of the fittest on tour.
Djoko in 3 or 4 sets. With the world number 1 ranking on the line he’s not going to let that opportunity slip. I hope I am very wrong and thiem blows djokovic off the court with his power game
Theim’s red-line is pretty high. He played lights out when he won IW when Fed was in great form. He knows this is a good match for him and he can beat Djokovic. He’s been steadly improving on hardcourts in recent years and his youth, strength and will to win should see him prevail in a tight 4 sets to mark a new era in men’s tennis.
Djokovic hasn’t faced anyone yet that doesn’t roll over at the sight of him at the other end of the net on a hardcourt (Fed was solid until he realised he could win) and think it only takes a capable player with the belief that they can win to expose Djokovic’s vulnerability.
Theim in 4
FYI, the weather is mild tomorrow with average humidity.
Novak 3-2.
Djoko in four but Thiem has a real chance
Djoko vs Thiem – 60% vs 40% chances of winning.
Thiem should try his best to win this one, he’ll have harder task ahead at the FO and Wimbledon. If not, he has to wait until the USO when all the big shots except him will play at the Olympics to have another go at the slams (higher chances I feel as the others will probably be fatigued).
At FO he not only has to deal with Rafa most likely but also Djoko or Tsitsipas or Sasha, all of them are great on clay. Wimbledon is not his surface so the USO is his best bet.
He’s still second only to Nadal on clay,why wouldnt he beat Nole or Zverev there?
And Rafa is going to lose at RG sometime.
Hope Thiem break the curse of big 3 slams.
There is no other professional sport as uncompetitive where champions are almost eternally the few same persons.
If this remains, maybe should have a slam played by only three competitors or maybe two. The result would be the same as 128 competitors.
If you want a greater variety of slam champs I suggest you watch women’s tennis. No lack there! Including a brand new one – Sofia Kenin, born in Russia, emigrated to USA as a baby. In fact “The Russians Are Coming!” is a current theme in tennis. Russia has a very strong young trio of male players. Zverev is from a Russian family that moved to Germany. Tsitsipas and Shapovalov both have Russian roots. Of course women’s tennis has long boasted good Russian players.
Or just stick with the men a bit longer. The Big 3 will fade away in the next few years. I think.
Few more years of boredom and certain eternity then
How can you exclude Medvedev who’s a Russian from Russia? Oh, Rublev too and also Khachanov!
Let’s go Djoko! It’s going to be tight but I think Djoko will pull it off in 4
Looked like 62 61 63 in the making
Great stuff from Thiem. Djoker was on a v high level and Theim raised his game to match his
Theim’s slice backhand and variety is working beautifully tonight.
He’s just not getting enough free points yet to swing this around.
Vamos Djoko!
Wtf!! Djoko is always dialled on against rafa!! Here he is going walk about🙄🙄🙄
So Thiem pulls off a Wawrinka in set 2! That’s how I have been calling this match. His backhand DTL is a very important shot. Doesn’t have to be too close to the sideline given the pace. We know how Stan uses that shot against Novak!
I am glad to see Thiem using slices and a bit of rhythm changing backhands CC. He is thinking and not going for broke on every shot. That’s how he has matured against Novak.
I think Djoko’s been overdoing with his 2nd serve so will back down a bit until he finds himself in the lead.
Thiem NEEDS a high 1st serve %.
This will be very very physical. 5 sets is a good possibility
Also, Thiem has a good backhand volley. Should not be afraid to come in every now and then. Keep changing direction, spread the court and take the risks by coming in sometimes!
Thiem now in control of this match, two breaks up in set 3. Novak actually looks a bit old, not matching the energy or pace of Thiem. And to be honest, Novak hasn’t had a lot of tests so far in this tournament. He didn’t look great against Fed at the beginning of their match, before effects of Fed’s injury set in. And he just hasn’t looked that good tonight. He can’t be counted out, of course, but a Thiem victory in 4 would not surprise me at this point.
Yeah, and I really feel that playing the ATP cup and getting to the final really did take a lot out of Djoko and Rafa, considering their age.
Thiem otoh is six to seven years younger and very fit and he trained hard during the off season last year. If he wins here then it’s really reward for all the hard work put in.
Honestly, I dont think it was a wise decision to play ATP Cup for both these guys. Theim has played well today but Novak has really gone off the boil. I think Rafa and Novak would rather play less than come into a major tired.
Thiem takes the 3rd set! he’s kind of following a Wawrinka blue-print in his approach. He’s started to hit the DTL backhand a bit better, after really missing it for most of the match. But even without that shot, he’s just been better from the baseline, forcing Novak to try different tactics like serve and volley and drop shots. Unless Djokovic can really lift his game here, it’s hard to see him winning this match.
Damn! Thiem has been projected has the heir apparent to rafa at rg and he is now in a position to do what even rafa has been unable to do- beat nole at ao
Well, Thiem has all the tools and he’s much younger and now hitting his peak, Rafa is off his peak now.
Thiem has his FH and BH CC and DTL shots, Rafa hasn’t a good BHDTL thus he tends to go CC with his BH; Djoko knows exactly where Rafa will be hitting to. I said before, that Rafa really needs a good BHDTL shot so that he can change direction and be less predictable.
Thiem playing like this will be another guy who will trouble Djoko a lot in the future, like the way Stan used to do to Djoko.
The match is not over yet, Djoko still has chances to fight back. For Thiem’s sake, I hope he wins this in four sets.
Vamos djoko! Take it to 5 please
Thiem asking for trouble, one poor service game and the set is over! Looks like Thiem will have a hard time now, his serve not as good as Djoko’s I feel so he’ll have a hard time holding serve in the fifth. I’m sure Djoko will now up his level. If Thiem loses this, he’ll be devastated, losing from a winning position!
Djoko – the mental beast.. a big salute after the energy sap midway through the match
Mental beast or highly deceptive?
If the guy on the other side is falling prey to deception then the mental strength of that player is to be questioned.
Djokovic does everything possible to get the victory. Comes out fast and hard hoping to steamroller his opponent for a quick and easy victory.
When he starts losing, he shortens the posts, takes injury time-outs and makes it his opponent think he has the match in the bag.
Snatches the 4th set and then goes into lock down mode, doesn’t miss a balll and starts playing like he did at the beginning.
To beat Djokovic you have to know what game he plays and don’t lose focus of it from start to finish otherwise he will pull the wool over your eyes as he has done to many of his opponents in the past.
Thiem has himself to blame for not able to hold serve in the fourth set. Looks like Djoko has this one as he’s prepared to grind for five sets to win, tired or not, knowing that Thiem may be fatigued after his QF and SF with one less day of rest.
Poor Thiem, I thought he has this one, but it looks unlikely now. Djoko with one break up is not going to give it away esp when the finishing line is near.
Theim is falling victim to Djokovic’s antics like many before him. #disappointing
Ok Thiem, may not be your time now, maybe at the USO?
You can’t beat Djoko at AO, I don’t think you can beat Rafa at the FO, so perhaps your time will come at the USO?
Not a really exciting match, more grinding than anything else with both looking lethargic.
When Djokovic tries to generate his own.pace he misses it most of the time.
You’re the man Djokovic, the master at stealing victories from your opponents through deception.
What a playaa.. esp against the hostile crowd😃
Bummed for thiem though
Why is the crowd hostile? …because they see thru his BS!
Well after all the grinding, Djoko wins the match and the AO. I don’t find him impressive, just barely scrape through to win this title.
I hope Rafa is physically ok so that he’ll get back the no.1 ranking by the clay season. Too bad for Thiem, he’s not going to beat the TOP two guys yet at their respective favourite slam. Thiem making all those errors is not going to cut it at the FO against Rafa, who will extract all the errors from Thiem’s BH.
Thiem must be feeling bad losing after leading for three and a half sets. Had he served better, the match could be his and the AO title.
Congrats to djokovic. Congrats on being world no1 again. The next gen are just not ready yet to topple the big 3. Thiem had the match in his hands and fell apart. Disappointing. As usual djokovic finds a way to win when not playing his best. Has happened so many times I’ve lost count. He really is a mental giant. Djoko handled the crowd quite well also.
It’s annoying that everyone lose against Djoko, even when he’s far from his best. I mean, come on Thiem, leading 2:1, being younger. It would have been amazing to get his 1st slam here. Would give him so much confidence… Do you think Zverev would have won it? I still believe Novak will not touch 20 slams.. He can enjoy probably last or pre last slam ever.
Unfortrunatley, there’s is much more to tennis in this day and age than just playing better tennis. Against Djokovic, gamesmanship is probably 75% of what determines the result.
If you don’t have a handle on that part of the game, you will lose at this level 9 times out of 10.
As I said, Thiem’s best chances this year will be at the USO, when all the big three will be tired after the Olympics.
Sorry to say, Thiem is disappointing esp in the fourth set; he should try his very best to hold serve no matter what when he knew he’s feeling fatigue. I mean if you lost the fourth set, you would have to play another set, how then would he win if he’s tired? All the more he should hang in tough there. Sorry to say, he’s not there yet.
Stan at age 28 was still fitter than this Thiem at age 26; Stan at AO2014 went five sets with Djoko (I mean Djoko at the AO and a younger Djoko at age 26!) to beat him, and then four sets to beat Berdych (and I think Berdych back then > Sasha now) and then beat Rafa in the final (no doubt Rafa was hampered by injury but that’s Stan’s first ever slam final and he remained mentally focused to beat Rafa to win the title).
Thiem couldn’t overcome his physical fatigue I feel, unlike Djoko who just concentrated on the match mentally focused, hung in there to win.
An opportunity missed by Thiem sadly when Djoko was lack lustre for most part of the match!
I don’t think Sasha would win either, because Djoko would simply drag it into a war of attrition; Sasha didn’t have the patience I feel.
I think Djoko can get to 20 slams if he keeps winning Wimbledon and the AO. At the AO he’s still physically in better conditions than when he’s at the USO (I doubt he would keep pushing hard to win the ATP Cup going forward when he’s getting older and older). He’ll grind his way to more AOs I feel but may start to lose at Wimbledon (he may still get to six or seven Wimbledon who knows!) so 20 slams is achievable imo.
Rafa may win another one or two FOs and maybe one more USO before he retires I feel. So both Rafa and Djoko will exceed 20 slams imo.
Are you nervous about Rg lucky? How big a threat will thiem be in your opinion?
Zero. The way he messed up here, he’ll be much worse at the French. The person I am worried about is Djoko at the French bc we know he can be very dangerous there being the only person among active players to beat him there in straight sets for that matter. But Rafa should be the overwhelming favorite as usual.
I agree with Eugene. It’s so annoying seeing everybody caving in to djokovic when he’s so beatable and allowing him to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. If you can’t beat Djoko when you are leading and the match is in your hands then please don’t waste your time and just let him beat you in straight sets. I mean, what’s the point of playing great tennis and then when you are at the finish line and the trophy is basically within your reach, then you completely fall apart. Just a complete waste of time.
Dom is going to be more than zero threat wise! Clay is easily his best surface where he has already been to 2 slam finals. I don’t want Rafa to have to play him in the quarters…
I agree that Nole is always a threat. He really lifts his game against rafa playing way more aggressive…
Amy, Djoko has always been a much greater threat at the French to Rafa than Thiem. Djoko is capable of beating Rafa at the French as he has done once in straight sets and pushed him to five sets in 2013 and was leading 4-1 in the 5th set bf Rafa went into God mode. Thiem has never come close to beating Rafa at the French and considering the way he lost this match against Djoko when he should have won it, he’s not there mentally yet.
Thiem may not reach the FO final this time because Sasha could also beat him on clay! After reaching his first SF at the AO, Sasha should be more confident now at a slam and he has the game to beat Thiem on clay (Madrid 2018).
I don’t know how Tsitsipas will play this year on clay, he lost narrowly to Stan in R4 last year in five sets, I think Tsitsipas learns fast and may go further this year at the FO.
Both of them may not only threatened Thiem but also Djoko on clay at the FO.
No, looking at Thiem now, I think he’s mentally not there. Djoko was there for the taking imo, and yet Thiem just relaxed a bit after winning the third set and then lost his serve and the fourth set. After that I knew he’s done, because Djoko would be relentless being thrown a lifeline.
Rafa on clay would be harder to beat than Djoko on the HC; and seriously Djoko was playing poorly by his standard. I feel Djoko would need a long long break after this; and Rafa could take back the no.1 ranking by the clay season.
And I feel Thiem will have to fight hard on clay against guys like Tsitsipas and Sasha and Djoko too, not making it any easy for him at the FO. Those three can beat him on clay and so he may have to go through them before meeting Rafa.
Poor Thiem, he’s collecting plates on three occasions now; he beat Rafa here but lost to Djoko in the final, he beat Djoko in the SF at the FO but lost to Rafa in the final!
I guess it’s only Stan who’s able to beat both Djoko and Rafa in a slam to win it.
Congrats to Nole fans Elizabeth and vmk! Happy for you!😀
I didn’t see any of the match but judging from the comments here Nole was nowhere near his rapacious best.
I did say I thought this would happen! Nole really brings it against rafa and fed and is much more nervy and less focused against younger players.
Nole fans? See, you’re part of the problem. You’re agenda overides honesty which makes you no different. Create a better world, dont perpetuate the problem.
What are you talking about?! I am congratulating those who support Nole, including Elizabeth who is not here right now. Nole is her favourite player! He is my second fave! Vmk always cheers for him except against rafa!
Thanks Amy, Nole is one of my favourites!
When you get to 2 sets to 1, you have to be ruthless against someone like Djokovic until the the last stroke is played. If you relax he will find a way to snatch victory from your grasp and you will be wondering what the hell just happened.
This I agree!
Djoker has not much to defend till Madrid. He can surpass Fed in most weeks as number 1. He has all Masters, WTF. If he has the most majors, he will definitely be GOAT.
Ok I read comments on other sites. Everyone says it was a poor match quality wise with Nole playing badly.
That doesn’t reflect well on Dom’s ability to win big matches.
Oh and there is absolutely no way he would play poorly against rafa and fed!!
This reinforces lucky ‘s position against Happy that Meddy not Dom is the bigger threat on hard courts in the long run…
Sorry Amy I respectfully disagree. Medvedev would have messed up just like Thiem. It seems to be everyone’s motto to mess up against Djoko when he’s so beatable. Med has never beaten Djoko in a slam. Best of 5 is different to best of three. Medvedev couldn’t even beat Stan, forget djokovic. It would have been the same story imho. I would love for him to beat djoko but this has happened too many times that is a miracle if Djoko loses a match in a slam these days except at the French.
Happy, HC doesnt only mean the AO, Djoko is very much beatable at the USO and Meddy is a bigger threat at the USO than at the AO, as the court there suits his game more than at the AO. Don’t just think about the AO, the USO is also played on HC.
Miracle? Didn’t Djoko lose in R4 at the USO last year?
He lost bc apparently he was “injured”-whatever that means. That’s what he claims which I don’t buy. The real reason he lost is bc of his Achilles heel- STAN.
True Amy, Rafa played better at the USO final last year than Djoko at the AO final this year, yet Meddy could push Rafa to the limit there. Thiem should’ve won in four sets this final yet he let it slipped away all because he served poorly one game to lose serve in the fourth set. A Meddy playing like his USO final last year would’ve beaten this Djoko imo and would not let the two sets to one advantage slipped away.
Meddy’s best HC level > Thiem’s best on the HC!
Luckystar, respectfully with regards to that US OPEN final, it was rafa that messed up tremendously and ALLOWED Medvedev into the match. Why is everyone forgetting that? Rafa had no business allowing that match to get to even the 4th set let alone the 5th set. He should have won in straight sets. There is absolutely no excuse. Medvedev did not play lights out to take it to 5th set, rafa was two sets up and a break in the 3rd set and then as he often does he became nervous and started playing badly and his serve went AWOL and he allowed medvedev back into the match. Rafa often does this when serving for a set or the match, he almost always gets broken.
Even in the 5th set, 5-2 up,again the nerves kick in, his serve goes AWOL as usual, and he ALLOWS medvedev back into the match AGAIN.
I remember Sanju out of anger and frustration saying after rafa lost the 4th set, that if rafa loses that match, he will never forgive him. We rafans all felt like that. So why are we acting as if medvedev was on fire and rafa had no answers and was hopeless when RAFA should have won in straight sets? Rafa should have won in straight sets regardless of Medvedev’s level imho.
Until medvedev actually beats djokovic at the US OPEN, it’s hypothetical to suggest that he will. Especially since everybody except STAN these days seems to cave in to djokovic even when he’s playing badly.
Please don’t kill me, this is just my humble opinion. I say this respectfully, Please I’m not being rude.
You see, whether it’s Rafa’s mistake or not, you can’t deny that Meddy played very well the third to the fifth sets. It’s not like Rafa was playing badly but rather Meddy took it to him.
And, Rafa at USO played better than Rafa at this AO QF! Rafa played better in R4 vs Kyrgios and that match probably took a lot out of Rafa, given that Rafa had already played so much lately. Despite that, Rafa had his chances in all three sets against Thiem and had he played a little better could have won in straight sets.
Meddy has better chances vs Djoko at the USO than at the AO, my opinion. Djoko not as dominant at the USO despite getting to the final 8 times, winning 3 out of 8, below 50%, whilst Rafa won 4 out of 5 finals ie 80% success rate.
Is Cilic the last first time winner to win a slam during this big three era? Cilic back then in 2014 USO was 25 almost 26 years old and he was on fire beating Fed (then no.2 player) in straight sets in the SF. At least Cilic won a slam in his first slam final (like Delpo and Stan) before losing his next two slam finals (to Fed Wimbledon 2017 and AO2018). Delpo made his second final and lost to Djoko (USO 2018), and Stan after winning three slams lost his fourth final to Rafa at the FO2017.
I see they (Stan, Delpo and Cilic) are losing to the big three in the finals, and had to beat at least one of the big three to win their slam(s).
Thiem and company are not there yet, not even able to beat the big three (who are past their prime) to win a slam. They can’t even beat the trio who are so much older than them!
I feel that maybe I am coming across as being disrespectful to Dom. Apologies if so! He is a very nice guy with a great work ethic…
Djoko’s level wasn’t great especially in Set 2 and late Set 3 but he was able to bring out his best on the big points (also his serve helped him out as through the tournament). Partly Thiem crumbled but Djoko also raised his level in the fifth and didnt give away any free points. Great stuff Djoko, number 17! Onto being the GOAT.
The either thing most people don’t see (as they are mostly Rafa and Fed fans) is how hard it is to play with the crowd against you. Especially when you are one of the three legends of this era. It happened again today but Nole is so mentally strong. Rafa had to face that in the ATP cup (against Djoko) when the Serbian heavy crowd was against him and he was getting quite frustrated. Kudos to Nole for being such a great champions against all odds. Amazing and motivating.
Separately, I think Thiem definitely has a shot at the French the way he is playing this year, running Novak to 5 sets at AO is in itself a great achievement and bodes well for his future.
I though it was a good effort from Thiem, few would’ve been shocked if he went down only taking one set.
He did mentally crack and let Djokovic back in, but his overall level was still strong and he never stopped trying. I think at the end he just went a bit sloppy and didn’t force Novak to play enough (Novak was still a little nervous), but he’ll learn from that.
Also, you have to factor in that Djokovic kind of let the third set lapse, much the way he let an almost un-saveable set go last year at Wimbledon against Federer. It’s a tactical thing that you won’t see Nadal do, but some other players will.
I still think Thiem is easily the #2 favourite at the FO at this stage. Remember that the difference between hardcourt and clay is huge – not just for Rafa but also for Thiem. He will be much more comfortable against Djokovic at the FO if he faces him there, I could see him beating him in 3-4 again.
Tsitsipas or Wawrinka might make a run at things, but for me they are still FO outsiders at this point in the year. One his yet to really prove himself, and the other has been AWOL until quite recently.
Thiem’s game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 18 months and I won’t be at all surprised to see him facing off against Nadal once more.
Djoko really played strictly average…he was there for the taking and thiem let him off..whether it was nerves or just fatigue i dont know..however i think expecting djoko to dominate the year,that won’t happen..if he has to face say kyrgios ,thiem in qf..you think he would have survived with ease ? he was a little lucky with the draw here to face no one till qf and then a compromised fed in sf..so i think its game on for the rest 3 slams..and no rafa is not a lock for french too..anything can happen…the draw will be key there as to which side thiem falls in..
I can’t understand why was crowd against djoko here too..he has won this 8 times ..
Big 3 have to be lucky. Rafa had an easy USO 2017, also he was lucky in a way that Djoker took a loot out of Theim in RG SF.
Big 3 have become old but they would still have more will to win. Today Djoker willed to win.
One weird stat – Its the first time either of big 3 had to come from 2 sets to 1 down in major final to win it.
But Rafa played well to win; Djoko didn’t here at the AO. Djoko was pretty average; can’t say Rafa was average at USO2017 or 2019. Rafa had to beat Delpo in the SF in 2017 before getting to the final, and Meddy in the final in 2019, who was the red hot player then.
I don’t call Rafa lucky at the FO, and at all times that he won at the FO, he played his best tennis in the finals, unlike Djoko here.
I completely agree. Rafa is the best clay court player ever for a reason. Luck has nothing to do with him winning the french open. If he plays his best he is arguably unbeatable regardless of who is his opponent.
How I wish rafa will play this year’s french open the way he did at 2017. It was such a pleasure watching rafa in Godmode at the 2017 french open. He was serving and baking bagels and breadsticks and baguettes at will throughout the tournament. Gosh, I miss that rafa. He was simply incredible.
Agree about the draw, it’s as if it’s destined that Djoko will win this AO and so gets eight titles at a slam just like Fed (at Wimbledon). His draw becomes a joke once Tsitsipas and Agut lost early and no matter how average he played, he still could grind his way through to get the title, what more can we say?
He’s a great champion whether he plays average at times or not, for when his game is on its scarily good.
I would say, Thiem is not in the league of the big three, and I would even say he’s at least half a level below the level of Delpo, Cilic and Stan during their heydays, not forgetting those three beat the big three when they’re close to their best.
Ofcourse rg is a good 3.5 months away..lot can happen in 3.5 months .we know last year what happ..rafa was down till Madrid..then suddenly switched .so we can’t say anything now about RG…i just hope rafa somehow gets to 20 at french n 21 sumwhere else
Rafa needs to play less! He played less after Wimbledon till USO. Won everything. He needs to follow the same now. He played way too many matches in ATP Cup. He should skip Acapulco and Miami as he has not much to defend there.
Exactly .this is what irritates me most..Davis cup last year..atp cup this year..laver cup..cut all this crap seriously ..put yourself over others n country except at olympics .Davis n atp really doesn’t matter
I read that Moya and his team tried to stop Rafa from playing the ATP Cup but it’s Rafa’s decision to play. Well I hope Rafa learns his lesson, he’s no longer that young anymore, and HCs not his fave surface unlike Djoko, so all the more he needs to just concentrate on the important events and skip the not so important ones.
I hope rafa skips everything and plays Indian wells and Miami only and then prepares for clay season. I don’t know why rafa never listens and he keeps overplaying time and again and then gets injured. He did it in 2017, 2019 with that LAVER cup and all the other cups. Sometimes I wish uncle toni comes back and really disciplines rafa for these foolish mistakes he makes that always leads to injuries. Uncle toni I think is the only person he respects and can deal with him when he’s being stubborn.
I won’t be surprised if he decides to play everything under the sun again and then gets injured again. Somebody needs to talk some sense into him. His health and fitness is the most important thing not pleasing his country or fed with regards to that Laver cup.
How many weeks does rafa have at no.1 now. Djoko in all probability will not let no.1 go until wimbledon considering how little he has to defend. Is he set to surpass roger by the time the us summer swing starts?
Nope, he’s 35 weeks short of Fed’s 308 weeks so no, he won’t surpass Fed’s until probably after the USO.
Djoko has lots of points to defend from clay to Wimbledon, ie 4500 points (4635 including IW and Miami). Rafa has 5025 points from IW to Wimbledon, but Rafa could gain points at MC, Barcelona or Madrid.
I expect Rafa to regain no. 1 during the clay season – to me Rafa winning at FO > Djoko winning at Wimbledon, esp if Fed prepares himself for one last push at Wimbledon this year (he may skip clay, who knows).
Rafa has 208 weeks as no. 1 exactly 100 weeks short of Fed’s.
Oh, Sanju is correct, Rafa has 210 weeks at no. 1 (got to include these two weeks at the slams).
Rafa has 210 weeks at no 1..
Djoko will likely cross fed but can’t be sure ..
Fed has 310 right..djoko has 275..so 35 weeks means around 8 more months..i think he will surpass it..but fed has predicted there will be 3 no1 this year..god knows who he thinks is third
So Fed is at 310, Djoko at 275 and Rafa at 210.
Rafa with all his injuries still gets to 210 weeks, not bad at all. I just hope he regains the no.1 this year and adds some more weeks to that. I guess both Djoko and Rafa could draw nearer to Fed’s 310 weeks at no.1, as I agree with Sanju, that Djoko won’t dominate so Rafa would have his chances to get back to no.1 and winning slams.
Lucky .rg getting roof this year .that may have it’s say..god knows how indoor clay plays as paris weather is really awry
Oh no! Now I’m really worried. I don’t know if rafa is as good indoors as he is outdoors on clay. I hope he can adapt to whatever conditions indoors cause who knows if he faces thiem in the semifinal or djoko in the final and it starts raining heavily.
Rafa won’t play at Miami as MC is only one week away this year (Olympic year so the calendar is affected). Rafa will play at Acapulco and then IW.
I agree Djoko looks beatable, so no he won’t be as dominant as before. He lost at Shanghai last year and then lost to Fed and Thiem at WTF, not to mention losing to Meddy at Cincy and to Stan at USO. To me he’s pushing hard to gain points at ATP Cup so that he could catch Rafa for the no.1 ranking. I guess he’s running on fumes by now and so don’t expect him to do well at IW/Miami.
He also has a boat load of points to defend on clay and Wimbledon so he may lose points if he couldn’t defend them. Rafa otoh has chances to gain points at MC, Barcelona and Madrid, having reached SFs only in those three events last year.
Not indoor, because the roof is unlike AO or the others, with openings on all sides to allow in the wind. It’s not fully indoor conditions.
Anyway why are you people so afraid of the roof? Please, Rafa can win on clay, roof or no roof! Keeping away the rain is better for Rafa, as there’ll be no wet clay affecting the bounce of the ball.
Does ball bounce as high on clay under roof too ? I thought it needs sun for high bounce n fh pop
Great players can win roof or no roof, rain, hail or shine.
We’re in February and already speculating about the roof at RG affecting Rafas chances, get a grip.
Id like to add something here. I totally commiserate with all fans when their favourite loses, even Im not a fan of them. Its so painful . I felt for Theim , was rooting slightly for Djoko, but would have been happy either way. You can have a balanced view of things and still have your favourite player, if that makes sense.
Djoko could be setting up for another monster year… not unlike his 2015 or 2011. He has been terrific on his serve and today he was feeling low on energy and still managed to come out on top. He is unbeaten this year and already has notched up routine wins over his fellow goats.. will be interesting to see how he goes. He reiterated the fact that we wants to beat rogers record of no.1 and grand slams
Its setup pretty nicely. But I think even though Djoker has won what 5 slams after his comeback, I still think he is beatable.
His mid match lapses have become much more prominent, he has improved serve, but he is less offensive now more of a grinder and thats why he is nowhere as consistent as he was before. Look at Djoker in hard court Masters 1000, he loses a lot these days. He used to be untouchable in his prime in IW and Miami, and someone needed to play a real good match to stretch him.
Not as easy as it seems vmk1. He is winning but surely looking very beatable..infact after last ao..he has played just average all season..he won wimby as fed choked..plain n simple..today thiem choked..
Djoko has said he wants to end with highest slams and highest weeks at no 1 within max next season as his kids are getting bigger n he needs to spend time with them, so has to reduce play post that..now that’s some clear intent made out loud
Not surprising, he seemed to be in a hurry. But, Rafa may have a say in it. Rafa has to keep himself fit and healthy, that’s the most important thing; next concentrate on winning the slams. This year there are too many distractions- ATP cup, Olympics, followed by LC and DC for Rafa. Rafa may have to concentrate on winning the FO and knowing him, the Olympics. I doubt he’s going to win many things else.
Who knows, Rafa may get to 20 slams by winning the FO, and Fed to 21 by winning Wimbledon. The USO may be won by Thiem or Medvedev (if he doesn’t play at the Olympics), everything else they and Djoko, Tsitsipas maybe, may split among themselves.
Thiem my favourite player after Fed after seeing him play years ago. Not sure about a candidate from the next gen. Tsitsi too arrogant and I still don’t get it how he managed to lose to Raonic, whose movement is poorer than Isner’s.
The ROS is poor!
One thing that did stand out to me, in comparing Thiem to Wawrinka as Novak-opponents, is that Stan’s flatter ball causes more problems for Djokovic than Thiem’s topspinny shots, even if the latter come with just as much (or more) pace. Stan also hits a flatter, harder serve; I didn’t think Thiem’s serve troubled Novak too much today.
Stan mentally tougher! After losing to the big three so often during his career, he at 28 might have decided that it’s now or never, so played very well and very determined to win his maiden slam at the AO in 2014. From then, with the belief and confidence he won another two slams in as many finals, ie 100% success rate before losing to Rafa at the FO in his fourth slam final (by then Stan was 32) – four finals in four years, not bad!
Thiem has lost three finals in three years so far, maybe he will be like Murray, loses a few slam finals before winning his first slam title?
IMO Not mentally tougher, less expectation than Thiem or Murray.He was totally overshadowed by Fed, no-one expected him to do so well.
True, that Stan actually hit flatter shots and flat harder serves than Thiem.
Stan can also hit his shots CC and DTL at will from both wings with great power, depth and precision. He’s also better than Thiem when at the net as he’s used to play in doubles in the past.
He’s a better player than Thiem I must say, even though he made his first slam final at age 28, because he spent his prime dealing with the big three or four when they’re in their prime and was able to beat them to get his slams (Djoko/Rafa at AO2014, Fed/Djoko at FO2015, Djoko at USO2016, and Murray at FO2017 even though he lost to Rafa in the final).