Australian Open Day 7 expert picks: Nadal vs. Berdych and Dimitrov vs. Tiafoe

Australian Open expert picks continue with Day 7, when Rafael Nadal continues his fortnight against familiar foe Tomas Berdych. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen preview the action and make their predictions.

Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Ricky: The eye test would suggest that Berdych is the prototypical player who would consistently give Nadal all kinds of trouble. He is a huge ball-striker who serves big, hits everything hard and flat, and can combat the Spaniard’s heavy topspin with both his height and his two-handed backhand. Unfortunately for Berdych, reality is much, much different. He is 4-19 lifetime in the head-to-head series and a shocking 1-18 in their last 19 meetings. Additional bad news for the Czech is that Nadal no longer looks vulnerable like he did heading into the tournament. The world No. 2 has bludgeoned three straight Aussie opponents–including Alex de Minaur–all in straight sets. Berdych is in outstanding form, too, but he hasn’t faced anyone like Nadal during his comeback from a back injury. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-2.

Pete: Berdych has reached the quarterfinalist in seven of his last eight Australian Open appearances, including back-to-back semifinal berths four and five years ago. Absent for the second half of last season, it was somewhat of a mystery of what to expect from the Czech to begin 2019. Similarly, it also seemed like a possibility that Nadal might not be able to play his best this year in Melbourne. Through three rounds, both players have combined to lose one set and Berdych has dispatched two seeded players to boot. Despite four trips to the final, Nadal has managed to win the AO only once, 10 years ago. Early results indicate that he is a serious contender this time around and Berdych will be his toughest test so far this fortnight. Despite the fact that they have played 23 times, these seasoned veterans last met more than 40 months ago. All four of Berdych’s wins in the series have come on hard courts, but this fact will mean little as Nadal continues his fine form and advances to the quarterfinals. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-5.

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France Tiafoe vs. (20) Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: There is no longer any doubt in my mind that Tiafoe is the real deal. He was awesome against Kevin Anderson in round two and found that same form just in time to win the last two sets against Andreas Seppi for the first five-set win of his career. Perhaps even more impressive is Tiafoe’s mentality and determination that has been on display en route to his first “second week” appearance at a slam. He will need all of that and more against Dimitrov, who is once again playing his best tennis Down Under. In any other setting I might lean toward the American, but the Bulgarian is a proven force in Melbourne–and everywhere else in Australia, for that matter. Dimitrov survived their only previous encounter 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(4) last summer in Toronto and another thriller should be in the cards. Dimitrov in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2, 6-3.

Pete: Dimitrov has played well Down Under the last two years, reaching the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively.  Two years ago he won 14 of his first 15 matches plus two titles and was arguably the hottest player on tour for the first month and a half. The Bulgarian has tended to play his best tennis to begin the year and despite a few less than stellar performances this season, he finds himself in the fourth round. Tiafoe had just five wins in 11 major appearances when he arrived in Melbourne.  His second-round upset of Anderson and come-from-behind win over Seppi in the third round have propelled the young American into unchartered territory on the on of the biggest stages in tennis. Tiafoe will bring his fearless brand of tennis to the court once again in hopes of parlaying this run into the quarters but it will fall a bit short this time against the more experienced Dimitrov. Dimitrov in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-3.

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126 Comments on Australian Open Day 7 expert picks: Nadal vs. Berdych and Dimitrov vs. Tiafoe

  1. It’s “goodnight Irene” for Berdych here… Rafa must be frothing at the mouth to get revenge for 2015, and he surely will get it and then some. I would be very surprised if 2019 Berdych managed to win 3 out of 5 sets against Rafa. I’m tempted to give him a set just because I feel like he’s earned it, but I’m just not even willing to go even that far. Straight sets, maybe one competitive set.

  2. Rafa in 4. It’s true that Berdych hasn’t beaten Rafa since they were quite young with the exception of 2015 but except for that their matches have nearly always been close and very competitive. Berdy says he’s playing more freely now with that “nothing to lose” feeling. I think this will be Rafa’s first real test if Berdy is back to his old self.

    Tiafoe in 5. Color me kind of convinced about Tiafoe. Sorta.

    • If was only her errors, that woman is just f@#$king annoying with her screeching!! She just should be banned!! Period!! Everybody complains about it but do nothing……..i wonder y? Its truly gamesmanship!!

    • Cheryl-

      “Rafa serving up bakery products…” 😂😂😂 OMG, I’m dying over that one! You seriously just made my day, Cheryl!!

  3. We all know that this is a different Rafa from 2015. To add insult to injury, Berdych isnt quite the same player HE was in 2015 either, just in the opposite way of Rafa. Poor Berdych haha.

  4. Woooohoooo!!….AWESOME 1st set Rafa!!…Thank u Allah 4 giving Rafa a good health & belief & confidence atm!….Please keep injury away from Rafa this time Ya Allah!….Amin!..

    Hehe…sorry 4 the prayer guys!…I had to!

  5. AAAAH Tiafoe! No! You had him!! You were up 2 sets to love and 4-2, and you choked! Please don’t choke the match away completely… I definitely see this going 5 now, and Dimitrov has much more experience in these big best-of-5 matches.

  6. Rafa cane out on fire, but Berdy has just not shown up. I am thinking that he is going to get into this st some point. After reading about how well he’s been playing, I was shocked to see him come out and play like a zombie.

  7. OMG Rafa is now at 8-0 against Berdych! I expected a drubbing, but not a complete no-show from Berdych. Could we have the first ever Triple-Bakery Product at a major in store? I’m sure Rafa is killing it, but surely Berdych must be playing horrendously?

  8. You guys… Tomas Berdych, the 6-5 dude with one of the biggest serves in the game has only landed 27% of his first serves, and only won 33% of those he’s made. Is he sick? What’s going on?

  9. I know I seem to be whingeing all the time about commies regarding Rafa but whilst they were walking through the tunnel for their match today, Frew McMillan dribbled on about how Berdych beat Rafa here in straight sets in 2015 so he knows how to beat Rafa in slams and how he made the final at Wimbledon in 2010 but omitting to mention that he actually lost in that final to Rafa and never mentioned Rafa’s 3:1 lead in slams, his 18:4 lead in their h2h nor the fact that Berdych is 1:17 in their last 18 matches.

    • Nadline, just in case u didn’t realise, there is politics in tennis too,lol!!!!

      I was very vexed when i heard them say about how Berdych has a chance blah, blah .blah. But never did i hear they say Tipsi had a chance!! Its just always been that way!!! Even Batista now will have a chance against Rafa too!! Pfffff!!

  10. Oh my God!….Wohoohohoho!!….Rafa!…I think this awesome perfomance is for all the pain & frustrations that he suffered from last year…C’mon Rafa!!Finish him in 3!!

    • Rafa is doing his best to keep Berdy’s head under water.

      In 2017, Rafa beat Basilashvili 60 61 60 at RG and it looked like he turned down his intensity in the 2nd set to spare Basil’s blushes.

  11. Ohh!!….It feel so good to see Rafa finally can rely on his serve to save him in important moment!…

    Hehe….amy will be glad to c this!…Yooohooo amy!!….u watch this??Haha….Rafa heard u amy!

    • Hello dearest mira!!☺
      Just reading the thread!! Haven’t actually seen any tennis yet! How are you darling?
      Vamos Rafa!!🐂🐂👑👑💪💪

      • Hey hey hey amy!!….good to hear from u!!….Errmm…hands,nose,eyes etc still intact in place,so i guess i am fine amy!hehehe….btw how r u amy?Hope everything is okay with u?Or…maybe not so okay with Brexit thingy hah?

        Oh amy!….u gotta watch Rafa’s match today amy!….Oh my God!…This is the most satisfying match i’ve ever seen since his perfomance at Wimbledon!….Almost perfect!…Wooohooo!!….I just hope he will keep being healthy…and insyaallah everythings will be fine…

        Ohh!!….bout those new serves!….u would be droolin’ about it amy!…hehehe…I knew how u were very critical about it last year…U must be happy to see it saved Rafa many times when it needs to!…Urgh!….everythings is awesome!!

        • Fantastic news mira! First that you are well and second that rafa is playing so well. As you know I have gone on and on about how he shouldn’t play in the Autumn and should go away and have a great off season and fix his serve! You said the same so maybe Carlos has been reading here and told Rafa that he had to listen to our fantastic amazing advice!!☺ Ha ha!!
          I read the interview with Carlos as I am sure You did and everything he said you, me, lucky and others have been praying for! Ie rafa improving his serve, being much more aggressive, not practicing so much!
          Vamos Rafa and Carlos!!☺

          • Oh yeah amy!!….U know, when i 1st read that Moya said they spent his off season by practised & improved the new serve…i immediately think of u & Lucky…And when i watched Rafa & how effective his new serves atm…and how a simple things like that can change his whole demeanor on court coz there’s no trace of nervousness anymore amy!….

            And i think his sleeveless style is matching up really well with his aggressive play…maybe want to intimidate his opponents??..wink!wink!..hahaha..

            Ohh…just imagine if he were to meet with Novak again like in Wimby…i think his new serves can give a h$!# of a different result this time around….who knows!….Right amy?

  12. Maybe Berdych is not feeling well; or the match vs Schwartzman had taken a bit of energy out of him. After all, he’s also just back from six months injury break and needs time to get back to top level competition.

    Of course, Rafa is playing well too and that’s the main reason.

    • Berdych has the tendency to just shrug his shoulders when he’s on the ropes. He has, probably, just given up because Rafa is too good today.

  13. This is the first match I was nervous about. I did not think DeMinaur would be able to hang with Rafa. But at least he came out and gave it his best and ran around like a little speed demon.

    I had heard so much about Berdy playing so well now. So I thought this would be a good match to test Rafa. But Rafa is on fire right now, he is seeing the ball so well.

    Rafa is feeling it! Berdy’s serve stats are dreadful.

  14. I am glad that Tiafoe managed to win in four sets. It’s a big deal for him.

    Now Berdy has decided to play and make it a tight set. Rafa needs to stay focused here.

    I am liking the serve. Rafa is able to get some cheap points when he is down on his serve.

  15. Beautiful Rafa! Strong, focused and moving very well! So proud of him! Berdych played well this whole tourney and Rafa managed to neutralize all his weapons. Berdy’s serve has deserted him but he was not playing all that bad, it’s Rafa who didn’t let him breathe out there! Nice, competitive third set and for Rafa to find solutions under pressure…
    The on court interview with Courier was so much fun!

    Great job, Rafa!

    Vamos Champ!

  16. Rafa ticked a lot of things. Was real solid this match. Started well, put the foot down real in first two sets. His new serve is awesome. He is not broken in last 3 matches. Thats a very rare part.

    Berdych was real good in third set. Saved a break point with awesome volley. Rafa was clutch as well, held serve in crucial moments. Played a great breaker. I think Rafa would be might pleased today. Spent 2 hours only on the court, which is very quick from Rafa’s standards and he was tested as well in the third which should stand him in good stead as well. 4 rounds done, all very quick, building momentum. Plays Tiafoe now, should be able to outsmart him.

    Irrespective of AO outcome, Rafa looks to have a great off season. He worked on his serve. He is throwing one two punch more now owing to his result.

    It also proves one thing, Rafa needs to rest well before big tourneys, he can work into form in first 2-3 rounds of major tournaments. He should back his instincts and should keep health his first and foremost priority. Rest of the things will fall into place.

  17. Wooohoooo!!! Vamos Rafa! Congrats to him and to all of you who managed to be awake for it. I very sensibly went to bed when the match started and fell asleep but woke up at 2 AM as I knew I would and HAD to go check the score. SO HAPPY!!!

    THANK YOU RAFA!

  18. Interesting that the last time Berdy and Rafa met in the AO quarters the score was almost exactly the same, except in Berdy’s favor. Was 6-2, 6-0, 7-6(5). Tennis is very strange.

    • Yep. I woke up just in time. Definitely underestimated Tsitsipas. Appears he easily got the second tie break. Now Stef is serving ahead and he’s going to get a second set if he can break now. Maybe no. Fed is serving well.

    • Sleep is for the weak! And I am…weak. Roger just saved 2 break points. Looks like it’s going to a 3rd tb. I’m hoping for 5 tb’s, don’t really care who wins so may the ….

  19. Whoa! Tsitsi breaks and takes the 3rd set, thanks to a few errors from Fed. Bet Fed is thanking his lucky stars there’s a 5th set TB.

    • He’s 20!

      I know he can be this good, it’s just that sometimes he throws in some boneheaded shots (he’s still not there yet where shot selections are concern).

      Fed is old hence if one can push him hard to go the distance, Fed would leak out errors. I expect a younger Fed to beat this Tsitsipas in straight sets; this older Fed, I don’t know whether he can come back to win in five.

      Winning the second set is crucial for Tsitsipas, as he seems to calm down after that and starts raising his level of play.

  20. Fed making cardinal mistake to engage in tye rallies with Tsitsipas! That’s not the type of game Fed is or has ever been comfortable with. Fed should go to the net more often and shortened the points..
    However, the kid looks pumped up out there and serving big to save some crucial break points. Unbelievable confidence level from the Greek! Weird though that Fed was unable to convert 12 break points!

    • Haven’t we seen this unable to convert bp’s from Fed a lot? It seems.

      But credit to Tsitsipas. His chest is out, walking tall.

      Oh dear I feel bad for Benny. Fed was playing well, I thought, until now. Outplayed by the 21 yr old. Actually that sounds reasonable. 21 vs 37.

  21. No mto, it’s done during changeover interval.

    Fed looking unhappy I must say; crowd making noises when Tsitsipas a bit slow to get back to play when Fed was waiting. I don’t see the necessity for that, they’re simply pro Fed!

  22. I like Tsitsi’s spirit. He’s a fighter. Plays with a ‘star aura’ already. Fed is just too old. Would have won it in 3 or 4 in his best years.

    • See, that’s why I like him and he’s my second fave. I see the potential in him – his fighting spirit like Rsfa’s; his movement and ball striking like Fed; his looks like Borg; what’s not to like about him?

      I just hope he remains humble and hardworking and doesn’t become complacent.

  23. Tsitsi is very likeable so far. Hope all this doesn’t spoil him. Fed’s ranking took a big hit. Wonder if he’ll play some clay this year? I thought his early (for him) losses at Wimbledon and USO last year were mostly really bad luck but he got outplayed tonight.

  24. Well done! This was such an impressive win. Roger had a bad day but Tsis was amazing. What a complete package!

    I don’t bet but one of my mates here keeps asking for betting tips. I advised him to bet on Tsis and he just messaged to say thanks and said I know way too much about this sport lol.

    Jokes aside, I do think he’ll meet Rafa in the semis and that would be a cracker. I have Rafa reaching the final.

  25. It’s only natural that Fed at his age is going to lose more and more at the slams. He’s already incredible to have won three slams at age 35/36, and ranked in top two for so long.

    It’ll be interesting to see how far Tsitsipas will progress in his career, how much he will achieve, and whether he’ll have greater achievements than say his peer Sasha Zverev in the future.

  26. Eugene was right when she said one of the top 3 will trip before qf..

    How do you guys see tiafoe n tsitsipas for rafa ?

    Btw fed said in his presser he has massive regrets about this match.

  27. I’m disappointed with Dimi; I thought he would play well enough to beat Tiafoe in four or five sets. Each year, he’s doing worse than the previous, from SF in 2017 to QF in 2018 and now R4 in 2019.

    He’s only 27, yet it seems that his career is on the downward slope. After winning at Cincy and WTF in 2017, it’s like he had already reached his peak! Not looking good that he’s being beaten by a younger inexperienced guy at a slam.

    • Bautista is running on fumes…hasn’t he played like 3 five setters already…tsitsipas too has played a lot…long 3.5 hr plus matchea

    • Tsitsi would be a gift for Rafa. I don’t think he can maintain that level in the semis or final. Would be glad to be wrong on that. He played as a finalist today.

  28. At this moment, theoretically it looks like Rafa’s draw to the final represents a big opportunity. I mean Tiafoe and then Rba/Tsitsi… to reach the final, could you ask for a better draw? But that’s just on paper…

    • Well, Rafa has always played with more confidence against his old “patients” with whom he played numerous matches than against young guns. His draw doesn’t look easy at all. These youngsters will go for broke. At his age it’s not only that Rafa needs to win it’s the length of the match and the intensity which matters if he wants to be strong in the next match! I believe these young guns. although lacking experience, are dangerous. Tsitsipas fired 20 aces against his idol and never looked back. Both he and Tiafoe will be ready to die on the court…Rafa knows he will have to be focused and serving well!

      Vamos Champ!

      • Rafa is always focused and takes every opponent seriously. So far he’s been serving well too. Has not been broken. But he also has not played a great returner this year. I think things have gone as well as could be hoped for. It’s about time Rafa caught some breaks at the AO!

  29. Tsitsipas is the best young gen player and by a distance. He is Fed’s mirror image with a fast serve, hope people don’t shame Fed by quoting Dimitrov as baby Fed. Him beating Fed in his first meeting tells me that he has the belief to do it on a big stage. I don’t think Fed played bad. Served very well, lost the second set after having break/set points and after that it was always going to be tough, hung in there, but the Greek guy just had too much firepower from the back. Second set was the key for Fed. Yes, in his young days, Fed would have won, but the Greek has the game to trouble anyone.

    Tsitsipas showed his potential in Canadian Open I guess where he went on a roll, beat Djoker on his way to final without losing his serve something which happened only once with Djoker in a three set match. His run in Canada reminded me of Djoker’s run in 2007 in Canada as well. Would not be surprised if he does become the first of young gen to win a major.

    Tsitsipas is the best young talent in a while. Last one was quite some time back (Djoker it was).

    • Sasha Zverev. Looking forward to matches between them. Zverev has been in the top 5 of the rankings for 2 years now and that’s without doing well at the majors. Rafa said Sascha will start doing well at the majors, he’s very good and there’s no reason he can’t. And Rafa is the best tennis analyst I “know”. (Sorry, Ricky, but Rafa has the great advantage of playing these guys!)

      • Let Sasha have a win against top 4 in majors first. He is going more towards Dimitrov way . He is an embarrassment in majors.

        I hope he is not called Next-gen after 3-4 years as well just like Dimi is still termed as an “upcoming” player even now at the age of 27.

  30. I woke up this morning to find out that Tsitsipas won! Wow! I was trying to watch the match, but it was 3:00 in the morning. I remember thinking if only Rafa could get a break and either Fed or Novak got knocked out, then it might be better. But I honestly did not expect Tsitsi to beat him. I am going to watch the rerun on the tennis channel because I have to see this young guy get the win.

    Fed has done well to win slams in his mid thirties, but time is finally running out for him. The next gen is knocking on the door.

    I get nervous when we get to the quarterfinals. I don’t know what to expect with Tiafoe in the semis. He showed that conditioning is taking a toll on him since he has not gone deep in a slam with these five set matches. I think Dimi’s best days are behind him.

    Tiafoe will come out with nothing to lose and go for everything. Rafa has never played him. As I said with DeMinaur, Rafa has the experience, court craft and strategy and fitness to take it to Tiafoe. Now Rafa could face two young guys back-to-back.

  31. Omg… I was almost in tears watching Tiafoe in his post-match press conference. This dude came UP from the bottom. Such an unbelievable story of hard work and determination to bring a better life for him and his family. Even if he never makes another slam QF (which I doubt he won’t), he has seriously achieved what we in the USA would call “the American Dream”. Just amazing.

    As for the tennis side of things, I honestly NEVER would have imagined that he would make a slam QF anytime soon… I’ve just always felt like his game is just too undeveloped at his age to do anything of note at a major. I’m still not very confident in his game, but he clearly has a level of fight and toughness that I NEVER saw coming!!

    That being said, I would be downright SHOCKED if Tiafoe managed to take even a set off of Rafa. For one thing, Moya confirmed the other day that Rafa RELISHES in taking on these young bucks. But also, Rafa is just a whoooole other beast than anyone Tiafoe has faced thus far. When these young guys gave Rafa, they just don’t even know what hit them because they’ve rarely faced anyone with the level of heavy, high-bouncing topspin that Rafa delivers, and he’s usually just too relentless in his power for them.

    Again, I would be very surprised if Tiafoe can make this match even competitive, and I would be absolutely shocked if he managed to beat Rafa at a major given his young age and inexperience.

  32. I would not assume that Tiafoe will come out and be slaughtered by Rafa. I don’t think Rafa thinks that will happen. Tiafoe has had a breakout tournament here. He beat Andrrson, Seppi and Dimitrov. He is in the quarterfinals if a slam. He will come out with nothing to lose, no pressure at all. He will go for his shots. Rafa and Tiafoe have never played each other before. Dark horses can be dangerous.

    Rafa will need to use his experience, tactical genius, savvy and fierce mental strength to deal with this young man. I would not carelessly write him off and neither will Rafa.

    This is where Rafa needs to raise his level of play for each match. I expect him to do just that.

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