Acapulco SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov are playing an exhibition match against each other next Monday in Atlanta.

But first it’s the real thing.

Nadal and Dimitrov will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel on Friday night. The head-to-head series is being dominated 12-1 by Nadal, who has restored order to the proceedings with five consecutive wins since losing to Dimitrov at the 2016 China Open. Their two most recent meetings came on the red clay of Monte-Carlo (2018 and 2019), where the Spaniard cruised 6-4, 6-1 on both occasions.

Although a hard court obviously gives Dimitrov a better chance, conditions in Acapulco are just fine for Nadal. The world No. 2 is playing like the huge title favorite that he is, having easily disposed of Pablo Andujar, Miomir Kecmanovic, and Soonwoo Kwon so far this week. Kwon actually played well in the quarterfinals and still went down 6-2, 6-1.

Needing a strong week on the heels of a slow start to 2020, Dimitrov has delivered with victories over Damir Dzumhur, Adrian Mannarino, and Stan Wawrinka. Two of those came in straight sets, while the 22nd-ranked Bulgarian also survived a 6-7(8), 6-2, 7-6(2) second-round roller-coaster against Mannarino.

“He finished last year much better than how he had played the rest of that year,” Nadal said of Dimitrov. “He started to play some good tennis and is showing it here, winning some very good matches. I’m going to need my best and I hope I’m ready to make it happen.”

Even in relatively fast conditions, the underdog does not have enough offensive firepower with which to hit through his opponent. Nadal will dictate play and once again pepper Dimitrov’s one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. Those factors combined with Nadal’s high level that has been on display give no reason why Dimitrov will be able to turn the tide of this matchup.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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