Australian Open Day 1 picks, including Vesely vs. Troicki and Gulbis vs. Kokkinakis

The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds preview and pick four of the best men’s singles matches on Monday at the Australian Open. Two rematches between familiar five-set foes are on the schedule.

Jiri Vesely vs Viktor Troicki

Ricky: In a somewhat cruel twist of fate (at least for one of these in-form players), the two champions from the week leading up to the Australian Open are facing each other in the first round. That means either Vesely or Troicki will be toast on Day 1. In their first-ever head-to-head meeting, I give the edge to Troicki for a few reasons. He has much more experience, especially at the slam level. Vesely has advanced out of the first round just twice and his one trip to a third round (2014 Wimbledon) was due to a retirement followed by an absolutely bizarre performance from Gael Monfils. While Vesely was stellar in Auckland, he benefited from a favorable draw and out-of-sorts opponents. Troicki, who may be able to bounce back in superior fashion from such a long week (both men had to qualify just to get into their respective draws), was outstanding from start to finish in Sydney–especially in the semis and final. Troicki in 4.

Joey: Last week’s title winners will be squaring off with little rest in between. Both Vesely and Troicki triumphed on Saturday and will only get one day off before they play each other Monday. Vesely contested seven matches in Auckland, while Troicki won an astonishing eight in eight days in Sydney. That’s a lot of tennis, even for elite professionals. Fatigue will certainly play an important role in this one, and how each player manages his fatigue will be crucial. Vesely posseses a massive lefty serve, but Troicki also owns a strong first delivery. Whoever can get more free points and conserve energy during service games is going to win this match. Vesely showed me a lot in Auckland, especially during his win over Kevin Anderson. He’s improved radically on hard courts, on which he struggled in years past. He’ll get through this one being the slightly more aggressive player. Vesely in 4.

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(WC) Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. (11) Ernests Gulbis

Ricky: Gulbis is to me what Fabio Fognini is to a lot of other people filling in their brackets this weekend. I was simply not going to pick him regardless of his opponent. Kokkinakis is by no means an especially difficult draw, but the up-and-coming Australian has plenty of talent and he will enjoy a ton of crowd support in this one. That won’t be good for Gulbis’ mental state, which is already fragile. The 11th-seeded Latvian reached the semifinals of the French Open lasts spring, but he has been an absolute disaster ever since. An arm injury last fall did not help, and his performance in Auckland suggests his offseason was hardly productive. Unless Gulbis serve-bots into some tiebreakers and Kokkinakis gets tight, this one has upset written all over it. Kokkinakis in 4.

Joey: Get your popcorn ready for this one, folks. For me, this is by far Monday’s most exciting match in prospect. If both Gublis and Kokkinakis can deliver, this is going to be quality entertainment. I was initially disappointed with the Court 3 scheduling, but on further thought, that is actually perfect. Court 3, at night, will attract an enormous and boisterous crowd in a more intimate setting. Kokkinakis gets great support in Australia and Gulbis is an easy target for fans to attack. In actual tennis terms, Gulbis played atrociously bad in Auckland and even admitted to not being prepared for the season. However, he competes extremely well and will cherish this stage. He will want nothing more than to silence the crowd. Tactically, it’s pretty simple; Gulbis will want to go backhand to backhand, while Kokkinakis will want to go forehand to forehand. I think Kokkinakis comes close but falls short in the biggest moments. Gulbis in 4.

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Andreas Seppi vs Denis Istomin

Ricky: Seriously? Again? Of course, you could also say that these two guys are due to play each other. They did not square off at a single slam in 2014. That drought came in the wake of an improbable stretch in which Seppi and Istomin collided four times in the span of five majors from Wimbledon in 2012 through Wimbledon in 2013. But it gets even better–all four of those showdowns went to five sets! They split them at two wins apiece, with their lone Aussie encounter going Seppi’s way 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-7(3), 7-6(3), 6-2. The results can partly be explained by the fact that Seppi and Istomin are basically the same player, except Seppi is slightly more consistent and Istomin has just a bit more firepower. Other than that, they have mediocre serves, uninspiring forehands, and great two-handed backhands. The Italian gets the nod simply due to a marginal edge in current form. Seppi in 5.

Joey: Both Seppi and Istomin couldn’t have been thrilled when they looked at the draw for the first time. Not only have they played eight times, but four of those have gone five sets. It’s pretty easy to see why they match up so well; both are very solid from the baseline. Istomin is slightly more aggressive, but Seppi likes to redirect pace and usually isn’t bothered by Istomin’s heavy rally ball. The match is scheduled for court 22, which is not exactly the most prestigious on the grounds–to say the least. I think that intimate setting adds an interesting element to this match. Istomin can get behind a crowd easily, but there probably won’t be one for at least the first half of the match. Seppi played well in Doha, and I like him to grind this one out. Seppi in 5.

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Blaz Kavcic vs. (WC) James Duckworth

Ricky: Not unlike Seppi vs. Istomin, this would be a relatively ho-hum matchup if not for some memorable head-to-head history. In the second round of the 2013 Aussie Open, Kavcic outlasted Duckworth 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(3), 10-8 after four hours and 52 minutes amidst extreme heat. The winner need intravenous fluids afterward. A much less gripping tussle came in the first round of the very next major, with Kavcic destroying Duckworth 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 at the French Open. Last season, however, Duckworth exacted a measure of revenge by ousting the Slovenian 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 in Roland Garros qualifying. That along with a decent showing in Brisbane should help the Aussie make this one competitive in front of his home fans, but Kavcic is simply the more solid baseliner. He should be able to wear down his opponent in another entertaining grind. Kavcic in 5.

Joey: I fear that many will overlook this potentially epic match. We all know about the first time these two played in Melbourne. Fans we’re going absolutely nuts with the Duckworth chants, making quacking gestures non-stop for nearly five hours. Duckworth gets an incredible amount of support in Australia, even if only for his name. He routined Gilles Simon in Brisbane but then proceeded to win only one game against Roger Federer in the next round. Kavcic is a very solid player, with no real weaknesses. He showed good signs in Doha, winning three qualifying matches before dispatching Juan Monaco in straight sets. Duckworth won the last time these two played, in 2014 French Open qualifying. However, the wild card has been known to fold under pressure in the past and I think the same may happen this time around. Kavcic in 4.

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