Australian Open first-round previews and picks: Nadal vs. Youzhny, Federer vs. Lu

roger111Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will headline Day 1 action at the Australian Open. The former champions are set for respective openers on Monday against Mikhail Youzhny and Yen-Hsun Lu.

Mikhail Youzhny vs. Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be facing a familiar foe on the other side of the net when the third-ranked Spaniard kicks off his Australian Open campaign on Monday afternoon. Youzhny has toppled Nadal on four previous occasions and was once considered a thorn in the side of the 14-time Grand Slam champion. They split their first six meetings at three wins apiece between 2004 and 2007 before Youzhny also picked up a win in the 2008 Chennai final. That 6-0, 6-1 result, however, can be attributed entirely to the fact that Nadal had battled Carlos Moya for three hours and 54 minutes one day earlier.

Head-to-head: Nadal 11-4
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Fast forward to 2015 and this is not the same Youzhny. The former world No. 8 compiled an 18-23 record last season that has him ranked 49th. He lost his Doha opener two weeks ago in easy straight sets to Nikoloz Basilashvili. Nadal did the same in Doha, where he was stunned by Michael Berrer 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. Thus questions remain in the wake of disappointing second half of 2014 that was plagued by a wrist injury and appendicitis. The good news for the 2009 winner in Melbourne is that Youzhny has a lost both a step in foot speed and sizzle on his groundstrokes. The 32-year-old will no longer be able keep Nadal on the defensive and far behind the baseline with his flat, punishing shots.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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Yen-Hsun Lu vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Lu will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when the two veterans are featured during Monday’s night session at Melbourne Park. They were supposed to meet a third time last summer in Halle, but Lu handed Federer a walkover. The 33-year-old Swiss has won both of their previous encounters without dropping a set. He prevailed 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2009 Wimbledon first round and 6-3, 7-5 at the 2012 Shanghai Masters.

Head-to-head: Federer 2-0
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Like Youzhny, Lu is not exactly the easiest of first-round opponents. Chinese Taipei’s top player registers at 47th in the world and he has already won three matches this year–two in Chennai and one in Auckland. Maintaining momentum from an outstanding fall, Federer’s preparation for the Happy Slam was just about ideal. The four-time Australian Open champion captured the Brisbane title with respective semi and final wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic before taking this past week off. Federer generally heats up in majors after a few rounds so Lu could hang around for a while, but the favorite should not be seriously troubled.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games

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12 Comments on Australian Open first-round previews and picks: Nadal vs. Youzhny, Federer vs. Lu

  1. Fantastic performance by rafa! The ROS was surely the best part. I don’t think I have ever seen rafa return serve with this much confidence in the first round of a slam. Agreed that youzhny’s serve was crappy but it was more about rafa’s intent,it really was there as he was continually trying to step up.

    The forehand got better and more aggressive as teh match went on but there is surely a couple more gears to go up. He was not flattening it out as much as he was capable of when needed and the most important thing ,which rafa should and will get in the next matches , is the ability to improve the depth on his forehands when counterpunching or defending. Given it was his first match,i would say this was a very very good performance in all areas. The court positioning when hitting backhands was also impressive and it was great to see rafa not retreating to hit backhands. He was willing to pull the trigger on backhand DTL shot as well (I believe this will become a key shot in the future for rafa).

    My hopes have really been lifted by this performance and I am sure it is the case with all rafa fans! vamos

    • vamosrafa,

      So I guess you got to see the match. I agree with you about the ROS. When I saw Rafa stepping into the court to hit a few ROS winners, that was just a beautiful thing! Of course, Youzhny’s serving was just horrendous. But at least it gave Rafa the chance to test out his ROS.

      There were a few shots that were just a joy to watch. Rafa’s still got it! He is so electric on the court. I was just so pleased to hear all of the wonderful words from the commentators on ESPN. I guess it takes Rafa being gone for many to realize just how special he is and how much the game needs him.

      Youzhny really didn’t seem to have his head in the game at all. But that was just what Rafa needed. He had to get his feet under him and also get into some good rallies to get his groundstrokes going. A win is always good for confidence and Rafa didn’t have to exert himself too much.

      We know there are challenges ahead, but I was just so pleased seeing Rafa come out and play this way.

      • electric is indeed the word , NNY! rafa is so full of energy and life. You are right that it takes rafa being gone for many to realize how special he is and how tennis needs him.

        Youzhny did not test him much so yes a lot of challenges await him. Rafa is aware of that and he will be ready.

    • vamosrafa,

      I thought you might be interested in this interview that Rafa did with Mats Wilander right after the match. We always assume (at least I do) that when Rafa isn’t confident, he stays way back to return the serve instead of stepping forward. At about the 1:22 mark in this video, he explains that in this match anyway, it was just the opposite. Rafa says he needs confidence to be far behind the baseline because he needs to feel that he can accurately hit the long high returns. Because he does not yet have that full confidence, he said that he moved forward to return. His response to the question was quite unexpected.
      http://youtu.be/IkC2YCiY0Vk

      • Thanks a lot for sharing JPACNW! this is very interesting. While it is true that rafa always slowly gains the confidence of hitting long returns from deep behind the baseline, it is surprising that he said he stepped forward because he is not fully prepared to return from deep back . So he prefers to do that on hard courts too! He is very effective when he is able to do that i.e hit deep returns from far behind the baseline but he can be perhaps even more dangerous when he mixes up the positioning. Rafa sometimes returns from a deep position in the ad court but steps up on the deuce court.

        Anyway,he tinkers with his return positioning depending on the situation and he has beaten every single player by standing deep behind the baseline so its all about him feeling the ball his own way

      • So what I have inferred is that rafa stepped forward because he thinks the feel is not quite there so obtaining good length from deep behind the baseline would not have been possible on a regular basis. It does not ,however, mean that returning from deep is clearly his preferred choice in all scenarios even when he is 100% confident.I think his return positioning will continue to be determined by i) his confidence , ii) the type of strategy he chooses to employ against a specific opponent.

        Kudos to Wilander for asking a good ,insightful questions. Generally the questions asked are very routine and get boring,

      • That interview was interesting. So that’s why Rafa was stepping up to the baseline to take the returns early. I think we’ve seen Rafa move around a bit with his ROS position in matches. Sometimes he will move up on the second serve. It may well depend on the opponent, the court surface and in this case, getting a better feel for the ball. Youzhny’s serving was so poor that it was smart for Rafa to move up and take advantage of it.

        Rafa’s comprehensive knowledge of where all aspects of his game are at isn’t surprising, but still impressive. His tennis brain is quite something! We may see him trying to make adjustments in the early rounds as he works to play himself into decent form.

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